In rounds 3 (Suns), 4 (Cats) and 5 (Bombers) we play teams coming off a bye. Not sure if that helps or hinders that early in the season but it is a quirk worth noting.

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

In rounds 3 (Suns), 4 (Cats) and 5 (Bombers) we play teams coming off a bye. Not sure if that helps or hinders that early in the season but it is a quirk worth noting.

Definitely worth noting that we'll be playing 3 rested opponents.

Conversely we'll be fresh coming into the GWS round 1 game who would have come off a warm Sunday afternoon game the week before. The start of the season is all over the shop due to OR.

Another quirk is that our bye isn't after the Kings B'day for the first time in years. It's a week later in round 15.

 

Wasn't sure where to put this but was having a discussion with a fellow Dee man and we were laughing at the odds for the 2025 flag

Those of you who are punters might be able to comment on how the Dees are 11th in line for the flag at 26 to 1 and the Hawks are 2nd in line at 8.50

Are you able to back Melbourne at 26.50 and cash out when they get to say 12 to 1 during the season? In the first 8 rounds we play North, GC, Ess, Rich, Weagles. There is a reasonable chance we will be at least 6 and 1 possibly 7 and 1.

And seeing as we are flying at summer training (!!).....

 

• Brisbane Lions 7.50
• Hawthorn 8.50
• GWS GIANTS 9.50
• Carlton 10.00
• Collingwood 10.0
• Geelong Cats 10.0
• Sydney Swans 10.00
• Fremantle 13.00
• Western Bulldogs 13.00
• Port Adelaide 18.00
• Melbourne 26.00
• Adelaide Crows 34.00
• Gold Coast SUNS 41.00
• St Kilda 51.00
• Essendon 67.00
• North Melbourne 126.00
• West Coast Eagles 126.00
• Richmond 151.00

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Wasn't sure where to put this but was having a discussion with a fellow Dee man and we were laughing at the odds for the 2025 flag

Those of you who are punters might be able to comment on how the Dees are 11th in line for the flag at 26 to 1 and the Hawks are 2nd in line at 8.50

Are you able to back Melbourne at 26.50 and cash out when they get to say 12 to 1 during the season? In the first 8 rounds we play North, GC, Ess, Rich, Weagles. There is a reasonable chance we will be at least 6 and 1 possibly 7 and 1.

And seeing as we are flying at summer training (!!).....

 

• Brisbane Lions 7.50
• Hawthorn 8.50
• GWS GIANTS 9.50
• Carlton 10.00
• Collingwood 10.0
• Geelong Cats 10.0
• Sydney Swans 10.00
• Fremantle 13.00
• Western Bulldogs 13.00
• Port Adelaide 18.00
• Melbourne 26.00
• Adelaide Crows 34.00
• Gold Coast SUNS 41.00
• St Kilda 51.00
• Essendon 67.00
• North Melbourne 126.00
• West Coast Eagles 126.00
• Richmond 151.00

@binman is your man!

As a 'betting nuffy' I would say people are drinking the Hawks Kool-aid and will be shocked when the Mighty Dees come home with a wet sail!! 

20 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Wasn't sure where to put this but was having a discussion with a fellow Dee man and we were laughing at the odds for the 2025 flag

Those of you who are punters might be able to comment on how the Dees are 11th in line for the flag at 26 to 1 and the Hawks are 2nd in line at 8.50

Are you able to back Melbourne at 26.50 and cash out when they get to say 12 to 1 during the season? In the first 8 rounds we play North, GC, Ess, Rich, Weagles. There is a reasonable chance we will be at least 6 and 1 possibly 7 and 1.

And seeing as we are flying at summer training (!!).....

 

• Brisbane Lions 7.50
• Hawthorn 8.50
• GWS GIANTS 9.50
• Carlton 10.00
• Collingwood 10.0
• Geelong Cats 10.0
• Sydney Swans 10.00
• Fremantle 13.00
• Western Bulldogs 13.00
• Port Adelaide 18.00
• Melbourne 26.00
• Adelaide Crows 34.00
• Gold Coast SUNS 41.00
• St Kilda 51.00
• Essendon 67.00
• North Melbourne 126.00
• West Coast Eagles 126.00
• Richmond 151.00

Short answer.

The bookies set the initial price.

Their prices top to bottom would pretty much reflect the previous season's ladder.

After that point the prices are set by the punters. That's to say who punters put their money on.

The bookies change the odds to cover their spread and ensure a profit no matter who wins.

At this point there would be bugger all in the pool. So relatively small amounts wagered on particular teams would have an outsize impact on prices.

For example a bunch of hawks fans with hok ball fever puting $20 here, $50 there, brings them into second favs.

If one of us dropped 2k on the dees, the bookies would reel us in quick smart. How far depends on how much money is in the pool.

Winning on the punt is not about picking the winner. It's about getting a price over the 'true odds' (being good at determining the true odds is the other key to winning).

Betting on the flag at this point is a fools errand because it's impossible to determine the true odds at this point given the millions of unknowns and variables in between now and September next year (injury being the most important).

Which is why there's no money in the pool now  - no big punter is putting any coin in now.

That said, $26 in my opinion is def 'overs'.

And given our pretty soft draw early, backing them now and cashing out, or laying off, after say 7 rounds would be a smart play.

Edited December 15, 2024Dec 15 by binman

I only bet with Sportsbet, I’d be surprised if a cash out option was available after just seven rounds and if it was it wouldn’t be very much, possibly lower than the amount of the original bet. We’re talking about a 23 rd season with a lot to play out (including injuries), then on personal note out clubs finals campaign in 2022/23. 
 

7 hours ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

I only bet with Sportsbet, I’d be surprised if a cash out option was available after just seven rounds and if it was it wouldn’t be very much, possibly lower than the amount of the original bet. We’re talking about a 23 rd season with a lot to play out (including injuries), then on personal note out clubs finals campaign in 2022/23. 
 

Yeah, you're probably right.

Alternative suggestion:

Put 10 units on the dees to win the flag at $26. 

Don't lay off.

Make a profit of $250 units when we win the flag.

4 minutes ago, binman said:

Yeah, you're probably right.

Alternative suggestion:

Put 10 units on the dees to win the flag at $26. 

Don't lay off.

Make a profit of $250 units when we win the flag.

I’m thinking of chucking $50 on it and let that ride for the year for a bit of fun

1 hour ago, binman said:

Yeah, you're probably right.

Alternative suggestion:

Put 10 units on the dees to win the flag at $26. 

Don't lay off.

Make a profit of $250 units when we win the flag.

Another option is a series of say $5 or $10 multis taking some obvious ones along with some long shots.

For example in 2016 i put a number of them on, one being

$10 bet 

Coleman : Josh Kennedy @ $2.75

Brownlow : Paddy Dangerfield @ $9.00

Premiers : Bulldogs @ $12.50 (for the life of me I can’t remember why I picked them)

Rising Star : Clayton Oliver @ $10:00 (Calum Mills was the winner).

Five bets @ $10 & 10 bets @ $5 give one the opportunity to take a range of possibilities and the fun lasts the whole season.

But not all Bombers fans are happy to head down the highway, with one long-time member issuing a complaint at the AGM — which drew some applause — about having to play at GMHBA Stadium for just the second time since 1993 outside of Covid years.

“I don’t want to go to Geelong either,” Bombers president David Barham jovially replied.
 

diddums 

40 minutes ago, Satan said:

 

But not all Bombers fans are happy to head down the highway, with one long-time member issuing a complaint at the AGM — which drew some applause — about having to play at GMHBA Stadium for just the second time since 1993 outside of Covid years.

“I don’t want to go to Geelong either,” Bombers president David Barham jovially replied.
 

diddums 

Sums up Essendon to a T, bunch of entitled [censored]

1 hour ago, Satan said:

 

But not all Bombers fans are happy to head down the highway, with one long-time member issuing a complaint at the AGM — which drew some applause — about having to play at GMHBA Stadium for just the second time since 1993 outside of Covid years.

“I don’t want to go to Geelong either,” Bombers president David Barham jovially replied.
 

diddums 

At least Essendon have travelled down two times this century.

Collingwood conveniently got fixtured a home game against Geelong next year, the year that Geelong starts playing only 1 home game at the G which is against Hawthorn on Easter Monday.

2 hours ago, Satan said:

 

But not all Bombers fans are happy to head down the highway, with one long-time member issuing a complaint at the AGM — which drew some applause — about having to play at GMHBA Stadium for just the second time since 1993 outside of Covid years.

“I don’t want to go to Geelong either,” Bombers president David Barham jovially replied.
 

diddums 

It’s pretty hard for me to dislike Essendon any more than I do but somehow they keep trying. May they continue to rot in mediocrity. 

7 hours ago, Satan said:

 

But not all Bombers fans are happy to head down the highway, with one long-time member issuing a complaint at the AGM — which drew some applause — about having to play at GMHBA Stadium for just the second time since 1993 outside of Covid years.

“I don’t want to go to Geelong either,” Bombers president David Barham jovially replied.
 

diddums 

I laughed when I read this. No one wants to but suck it up. 

I could just imagine a essendon member saying that. The entitlement they think they have

Checked the club and the Alice replacement game is rnd 23 vs Hawks.

No idea how we got to THREE games at Marvel this year. (2 x Away and 1 x Home)

iirc correctly, when we gave up the Darwin game (and the sponsorship $) Pert did a spiel on us getting that Home game back to the G (as well as the replacement game for Alice).

Somehow it seems we have lost that.

Is that how others remember it?

I wonder if the club tried to negotiate the venues.

Edited Tuesday at 03:034 days by Lucifers Hero

44 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Checked the club and the Alice replacement game is rnd 23 vs Hawks.

No idea how we got to THREE games at Marvel this year. (2 x Away and 1 x Home)

iirc correctly, when we gave up the Darwin game (and the sponsorship $) Pert did a spiel on us getting that Home game back to the G (as well as the replacement game for Alice).

Somehow it seems we have lost that.

Is that how others remember it?

I wonder if the club tried to negotiate the venues.

You recall correctly.

Melbourne brings home game back to MCG

"However, it was important the timing coincided with the opportunity to return the game to our traditional home, the MCG, rather than other alternatives"

We've been given a Marvel home game because Carlton and Essendon want to host more games at the MCG. The gap has to be made up by the MCG home ground clubs - Collingwood, Hawthorn and Richmond all already have a home game (or two) at Marvel, so the burden falls to us.

If our attendances drop off, this will become permanent, if not increasing to two games a season.

1 minute ago, titan_uranus said:

You recall correctly.

Melbourne brings home game back to MCG

"However, it was important the timing coincided with the opportunity to return the game to our traditional home, the MCG, rather than other alternatives"

We've been given a Marvel home game because Carlton and Essendon want to host more games at the MCG. The gap has to be made up by the MCG home ground clubs - Collingwood, Hawthorn and Richmond all already have a home game (or two) at Marvel, so the burden falls to us.

If our attendances drop off, this will become permanent, if not increasing to two games a season.

Thanks.

So the club has lost the sponsorship $ from Darwin and lower gate takings from Marvel vs the G

I'm pretty sure our membership cost went up for that extra Darwin game at the G. Taking it to Marvel disadvantages members further as we don't get the Home ground benefits the G provides.

Others can advise if we need to pay for a reserved seat at a Marvel Home game.

Ok so we play a Home game at Marvel but it should not be at the expense of the hard one Darwin G game. They should take it from another venue. Who cares what Ess and Carlt want - we had an agreement to play 10 games at the G.

Edited Tuesday at 04:224 days by Lucifers Hero

If Carlton and Essendon want more "home" games at the G then Monday through Wednesday night are free most weeks through the season.

5 minutes ago, Demonland said:

arvos loom, i take it?

14 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

arvos loom, i take it?

Personally love arvos bring them on

12 minutes ago, whatwhat say what said:

arvos loom, i take it?

I love arvo footy, I'm 75 mins away and night games get me home past midnight. I used to love the big games now I much prefer a weekend game at I.20 with small to mid range crowds. I don't like booking, I like rocking up 30 - 60 mins prior, grabbing a seat with a companion, these days my kids, who are now both loving the footy and then kicking back. Humans, cues, being packed in.....yeh, nah, no longer interested. I did go last night but bar the third the game was pretty meh.

I think we get better crowds during the day, because then all the kids can come, so you get entire families at the footy.

For a club our size, 25k against GWS in the rain, up against the F1s; 24,5k against the Suns; and 25k against Freo are solid crowds, particularly being in the bottom 4 / coming off a poor season.

If they'd been night games, I reckon those crowds would have been lower.

And if we start winning and play an attractive brand of footy, I think we'll get over 30k for those type of matches, which again, for our smaller supporter base is pretty good.

Edited yesterday at 05:291 day by Adam The God

Surely Dees v Blues, Hawks and Pies will be either a Friday or Saturday night game at the MCG.

The games v suns, Kangas, eagles, saints, dogs and crows are likely to be all afternoon games.

Eagles and Kangas home games likely to be graveyard games at Sunday 1.10pm start times.

Our draw this year is a horror for crowd sizes. Only big games v Tigers and Pies are our lock in event games (Anzac Eve and Kings Birthday). Need to create another event game somehow.

Doesn't help that we play a home game vs Saints in NT and WCE at Docklands. Saints game should be at the G and one of the GWS/Freo/Suns/WCE games in NT. It's absolutely stupid fixturing us to play another Vic team there.