Welcome to Demonland: Pick 5

[ChaserJ 4,925]

1 hour ago, The Jackson FIX said:

Anyone watched Reid closely this year? He doesn’t seem to get talked about as much in that top 3 (in this forum and some other articles I’ve read) as his highlights reel and some of the write-ups I’ve read suggest he should… 

Is he our #5 if he slips? Good user, excellent decision maker, gets heaps of it, goal kicker…

He’s a high IQ footballer and is very clean with his skills in all conditions.  Stood out as one of the best for Metro in wet conditions against the Allies…his cleanliness and quick mind gave him much more time than others.  His creativity in tight is as good as I’ve seen at junior level.

Went on to dominate champs. Can see him being a game breaker, BUT the limitations with his pace had created a perception that he won’t become a true mid at the level (won’t be able to break away on offence, run quick enough defensively on transition). He’s a smart footballer, so maybe he’ll find a way to compensate, he had been compared to Pendles, but SP has around 8cm on him and has always been good overhead. 

Probably sits in a rung just below the first group and it gets very even there. Could go 8, could go 18.

[furious d 463]

On 15/10/2024 at 12:33, layzie said:

I keep toying with the idea of reaching for Lindsay at 9 but is it just that, a reach?

This time last year we all would have considered Windsor to be a massive reach, and that's worked out pretty well, so reach away I say. I have no doubt JT will reach for the name of whoever he has highest on his board regardless of media/bigfooty groupthink. Other "reaches" he's made like Oliver, Jackson, Kozzy and Caleb have been great picks. 

It's so good to have faith in our drafting these days. I'd love Lalor or Jagga to fall to us but if they were available and JT read out another name I wouldn't be bothered at all because I'd back in our drafting dept every time.

[Davos 830]

52 minutes ago, ChaserJ said:

He’s a high IQ footballer and is very clean with his skills in all conditions.  Stood out as one of the best for Metro in wet conditions against the Allies…his cleanliness and quick mind gave him much more time than others.  His creativity in tight is as good as I’ve seen at junior level.

Went on to dominate champs. Can see him being a game breaker, BUT the limitations with his pace had created a perception that he won’t become a true mid at the level (won’t be able to break away on offence, run quick enough defensively on transition). He’s a smart footballer, so maybe he’ll find a way to compensate, he had been compared to Pendles, but SP has around 8cm on him and has always been good overhead. 

Probably sits in a rung just below the first group and it gets very even there. Could go 8, could go 18.

Looks to be more Sidebottom than Pendles to me. Good outcome either way!

[manny100 1,467]

Windsor had stand out pace and smarts as his Xfactor.

JT will look for some sort of standput out ability at picks 5 and 9.

Lalor explosive break away. Smith huge accumulator. Langford size, accumulator - speed?

Draper all round but Crows bound?

Tauru, marking, late developer, interceptor, swingman.

Trainor can accumulate, marking, intercepting.

And the list goes on.

 

 

[Sydee 4,359]

5 hours ago, Ungarieboy said:

Always go with best available with first round picks, particularly top 10.  Good coaches will adjust the game plan to suit. Good clubs will trade in players to fic gaps.

Note premiers often have players traded in to fix gaps i.e. Brisbane with Daniher, Collingwood with Howes, Geelong with Tuohy, Dee's with Brown, Tigers with Lynch.  

The trick is to identify where the gaps are likely to be, before they evolve. Unfortunately Brayshaws early retirement and possibly Smirh's unavailability could not be foreseen (throwing future planning into chaos).

 

Tend to agree 

Assume Collingwoods gap was a shortage of DHs ? 

[dazzledavey36 53,894]

Not a fan of Reid at all to be honest. Whilst it's good to show you can win the footy at junior level, when you're 180cm slow midfielder you've got to have some sort of athletic trait that can separate you from the rest of the other elite mids, and in my opinion he doesn't have any.

He's not quick, doesn't have that burst from stoppages and is on the slight side of his physical profile.

Reminds me exactly of Hunter Clark who's an ordinary AFL player.

[Demon Disciple 11,953]

Murphy Reid is a mid/late teens pick for mine.

 

 

 

 

now watch him go and win 3 Brownlow Medals 😂

[Demon Jack 6,835]

Have heard whispers from a source close to me (he usually has good intel) that North are leaning towards selecting Josh Smillie with pick 2 (pick 3 after Ashcroft).

Edited Sunday at 06:13 by Demon Jack

[Clintosaurus 7,785]

If Jagga is still there I think we have to take him

[demoncat 1,162]

11 minutes ago, Demon Jack said:

Have heard whispers from a source close to me (he usually has good intel) that North are leaning towards selecting Josh Smillie with pick 2 (pick 3 after Ashcroft).

Would be very curious to see who we took out of Smith or Langford should both be there at 5(6)

1. Lalor (Rich)

2. Ashcroft (Bris)

3. Smilie (North)

4. O’Sullivan (Carl)

5. Draper (Adel)

6. Smith or Langford? (Melb)

Langford and Lalor both strike me as the type of player JT would look to draft with a high pick, but there’s no denying Smith’s skill and ball winning ability 

Maybe he’s too good to pass up should he fall that far?

[Gawndog98 321]

On Murphy Reid I know he’s played all year as a mid but to me he has all the makings of at least starting his career as a gun half back playing in a similar style to Zorko. Agree his size and pace limitations may limit his potential in the midfield which is where I think he can get away with it more at half back to use his best attributes footy IQ, vision, disposal to set up the game which we’ve never really ever had that kind of player. Pick 5 may feel a bit of a reach but to me I’d be all over him at 9. I’m hoping with pick 9 we grab a half back to step in with riv going into the midfield. Forward/mid with pick 5, defender/mid with pick 9 would be ideal imo.

[58er 6,258]

7 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

He’s a high IQ footballer and is very clean with his skills in all conditions.  Stood out as one of the best for Metro in wet conditions against the Allies…his cleanliness and quick mind gave him much more time than others.  His creativity in tight is as good as I’ve seen at junior level.

Went on to dominate champs. Can see him being a game breaker, BUT the limitations with his pace had created a perception that he won’t become a true mid at the level (won’t be able to break away on offence, run quick enough defensively on transition). He’s a smart footballer, so maybe he’ll find a way to compensate, he had been compared to Pendles, but SP has around 8cm on him and has always been good overhead. 

Probably sits in a rung just below the first group and it gets very even there. Could go 8, could go 18.

Sam  Mitchell did not run fast and that districts home. 

Its always the same on D/L some  one comes up with a very good player who has6/7 good points and says he’s slow  and that is immediately transferred to all and sundry we shouldn’t take him.

Langford has also had the same “fault” lack of pace is a worry despite he is a big strong build licks well gets the ball and also kicks goals 

Someone else is small, Armstrong is not tough enough 

Very rarely do 18 yo’s have all skills completely so let’s not nitpick about all of them and embrace whoever we pick. 

This draft looks extraordinary and with picks 5 and 9 two very good young footballers will join us.  I hope Tauru is one for our talls and X factor plus a good mid preferably who kicks goals and can provide outside run and good disposal. Ie different to other mids we have already.

 

[Adam The God 29,863]

1 hour ago, Clintosaurus said:

If Jagga is still there I think we have to take him

He's my number 1. I hope he's still there. The knocks on his lack of damage from accumulation are overblown IMV.

Edited Sunday at 07:42 by Adam The God

[The Jackson FIX 2,985]

1 hour ago, Clintosaurus said:

If Jagga is still there I think we have to take him

I feel this way too. I don’t follow these kids play or watch them live but his form in those vfl games looked exceptional. 

[Fat Tony 5,203]

This thread would be better if it was merged with the Pick 9 thread given they are so close together and there is so much uncertainty about the top order of the draft. The strategy we adopt might also depend on who we expect to go at #6, #7 and #8.

[DeeSpencer 25,267]

1 hour ago, Gawndog98 said:

best attributes footy IQ, vision, disposal to set up the game which we’ve never really ever had that kind of player

I know he might not ever be back but did 2021 Salem not exist?

[Demon Disciple 11,953]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

I know he might not ever be back but did 2021 Salem not exist?

Well he at least played one hell of a GF

[Gawndog98 321]

2 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

I know he might not ever be back but did 2021 Salem not exist?

Fair point, more so meant someone who has been that guy consistently year over year which with injuries and form salo has struggled to get back to that player since. I certainly wouldn’t complain having 2 2021 salo’s off half back though

[ChaserJ 4,925]

12 hours ago, Gawndog98 said:

Fair point, more so meant someone who has been that guy consistently year over year which with injuries and form salo has struggled to get back to that player since. I certainly wouldn’t complain having 2 2021 salo’s off half back though

Salo should have been in the All Aus team that year. He was outstanding in ‘21.

[ChaserJ 4,925]

17 hours ago, Demon Jack said:

Have heard whispers from a source close to me (he usually has good intel) that North are leaning towards selecting Josh Smillie with pick 2 (pick 3 after Ashcroft).

That would throw a cat amongst the pigeons.

Apparently the Tiges are bullish on him as well and is a possibility at 6. Clubs will be spending a lot of time between now & draft day going back over vision. Not uncommon for the order to get thrown around a bit as recruiters revisit prospects.

Smillie’s early season stuff in CTL was compelling. He dominated games early on, winning clearances for fun and kicking goals. Tapered a little, but probably only suffered by comparison with his earlier output.

It’s hard to say O’Sullivan or Lalor had better seasons than Smillie given their injury woes, but both have been sitting higher on experts boards (FWIW I also rate their potential higher as well). A case of exposure not being a prospects best friend I guess, but maybe some recruiters have gone back and reassessed.

Edited Sunday at 23:41 by ChaserJ

[Axis of Bob 11,504]

2 hours ago, ChaserJ said:

A case of exposure not being a prospects best friend I guess, but maybe some recruiters have gone back and reassessed.

I think there's a lot in this because it's often the case that players originally get rated on what they can do but then the get marked down on what they can't do. The longer a player has been rated highly the more time everyone has to see what they can't do. Sometime that leads to a correction and sometimes it's an over-correction. I think Smilie sits within this and nobody really knows. When you see what they can do well originally I think you make assumptions on the rest of their game based on what they 'should' be able do. With time those assumptions get tested and you can react negatively if they come up consistently short on that. 

Smilie has some great traits that complement the player you initially assume he should be (ie, a coalface inside midfield distributor like Cripps or Green), like his great kicking. Your mind immediately sees him and thinks "Wow, he's Patrick Cripps but he can kick! He'll be a superstar!" but as he plays and more you start wondering on the base assumption .... "Is he actually Patrick Cripps or is he a non-ruck Brodie Grundy or is he a non-forward Jake Stringer?" and then his rating drops accordingly. He's likely none of them, he's just Josh Smilie. 

I'm having a really hard time working out how I feel about Smilie. He does some things that are really, really offputting for me (laziness, play style, his inability to get his hands free in traffic) which infuriate me, but I also understand that if he can sort these out in a professional environment then he could be a star. There's a really wide range of possibilities for him and I can see how teams in the top 10 will rate him very differently.

[demoncat 1,162]

7 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

I think there's a lot in this because it's often the case that players originally get rated on what they can do but then the get marked down on what they can't do. The longer a player has been rated highly the more time everyone has to see what they can't do. Sometime that leads to a correction and sometimes it's an over-correction. I think Smilie sits within this and nobody really knows. When you see what they can do well originally I think you make assumptions on the rest of their game based on what they 'should' be able do. With time those assumptions get tested and you can react negatively if they come up consistently short on that. 

Smilie has some great traits that complement the player you initially assume he should be (ie, a coalface inside midfield distributor like Cripps or Green), like his great kicking. Your mind immediately sees him and thinks "Wow, he's Patrick Cripps but he can kick! He'll be a superstar!" but as he plays and more you start wondering on the base assumption .... "Is he actually Patrick Cripps or is he a non-ruck Brodie Grundy or is he a non-forward Jake Stringer?" and then his rating drops accordingly. He's likely none of them, he's just Josh Smilie. 

I'm having a really hard time working out how I feel about Smilie. He does some things that are really, really offputting for me (laziness, play style, his inability to get his hands free in traffic) which infuriate me, but I also understand that if he can sort these out in a professional environment then he could be a star. There's a really wide range of possibilities for him and I can see how teams in the top 10 will rate him very differently.

I’ve come around to his upside but still have the current top 5 or 6 ahead of him  on exposed form

He’d be a player you’d love to slip to pick 9 

[DeeSpencer 25,267]

10 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

I'm having a really hard time working out how I feel about Smilie. He does some things that are really, really offputting for me (laziness, play style, his inability to get his hands free in traffic) which infuriate me, but I also understand that if he can sort these out in a professional environment then he could be a star. There's a really wide range of possibilities for him and I can see how teams in the top 10 will rate him very differently

The interview and background with coaches will be critical to Smillie, why, when pencilled in to the number 1 spot did he not attack the champs to sure up that spot? 

The lack of movement around stoppages is what concerns me. Dominating stoppages has to be his great strength and he didn’t do that in the back half of the year. 

He probably has enough strengths and weaknesses that counter each other out  in the rest of his game if he’s consistently strong at the stoppages.

[Supreme_Demon 3,658]

We really are spoilt for choice in regards to who the Demons could successfully snare at pick #5 in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

• Jagga Smith
• Murphy Reid
• Harvey Langford
• Sam Lalor
• Sid Draper
• Bo Allan
• Finn O'Sullivan
• Josh Smillie

We can't really go wrong with any of those choices can we? That's 8 midfield young guns to choose from.

Nevertheless, the discussions that Jason Taylor, Tim Lamb, Simon Goodwin and the rest of the Melbourne Demons recruiting team are having would be quite fascinating. You would go overall best talent before specific need this high up in the 2024 AFL National Draft.

I recall Jason Taylor saying that they often do a few mock drafts themselves with an overall ranking system for players. So that would definitely be fascinating to observe.

We as Melbourne members and supporters just need to sit back and relax, lick our lips and speculate who we think will be our choice for pick #5. But to be brutally honest most of us are pretty clueless and don't really have the expertise to know exactly what the Demons really need. It's certainly fun to guess though!

[1964nowMORE 481]

On 20/10/2024 at 09:50, ChaserJ said:

He’s a high IQ footballer and is very clean with his skills in all conditions.  Stood out as one of the best for Metro in wet conditions against the Allies…his cleanliness and quick mind gave him much more time than others.  His creativity in tight is as good as I’ve seen at junior level.

Went on to dominate champs. Can see him being a game breaker, BUT the limitations with his pace had created a perception that he won’t become a true mid at the level (won’t be able to break away on offence, run quick enough defensively on transition). He’s a smart footballer, so maybe he’ll find a way to compensate, he had been compared to Pendles, but SP has around 8cm on him and has always been good overhead. 

Probably sits in a rung just below the first group and it gets very even there. Could go 8, could go 18.

As well as dominating junior basketball and footy Murph was always the leading top few in cross country as a kid. He’s got some running power, but not sprinting - more like a Robert Harvey or Pendles type.