2024 Phantom Drafts

[Pennant St Dee 12,929]

2 hours ago, layzie said:

Langford's rise after his 2km time trial result doesn't surprise me. 

Was listening to Paul Roos he reckons the time trial and character are the only traits you need to look at. 

Within reason in regard to Roos comments, 2km time and character are great but you still need some physical traits and footy ability.  There’s plenty of players who are of fine character and run elite times but just undersized and that’s a big reason they remain at state league, country footy level.

Hamish Davis is of excellent character and ran top 5 in the 2km, but he isn’t a top 10 pick

[DeeSpencer 25,252]

1 hour ago, Axis of Bob said:

The last one that probably qualifies is Brody Grundy, who had a lot of hype as a top 10 but went at 18. That was 12 years ago. The last one that was 'possible pick 1' but slipped down and made people look silly was possibly Daniel Rich in 2008 but more likely it was Joel Selwood in 2006.

It probably shows you that there aren't really 'sliders', rather it's just people outside overrating players compared with how the clubs themselves rate them.

To the extent that there are even sliders I would only call them that if they start to drop from at least now if not closer to the draft.

Until now any orders by Cal or anyone else are just their best opinions with some club help. As the process goes on that starts becoming clearer on where clubs rate players.

I might be completely wrong on Jagga but he was never rated as a pick 1 contender going in to this year, he was always seen as a fair way below Ashcroft, FOS, Smillie, Draper. He was seen more in the 5-10 range.

The buzz he got from strong performances elevated him but even in July he was 6th in Cal’s form guide. 

Good vfl games especially at Richmond when they have pick 1, big disposal totals, a cool name. There’s a number of factors that started getting him thrown up the order yet he’s right back at 5 in Cal’s form guide and come the draft he’ll slot in somewhere from 5-10.

[DubDee 25,225]

7 hours ago, Roger Mellie said:

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' October ranking

Thanks for posting

Out of interest, I checked his October form guide from 2015 and he had Clarry at 23 and Weideman at 8 ahead of MacKay and Curnow.

Things can change quickly!  Hopefully JT works his magic - Clarry style, not Weid style

I wonder if there will be a Clarry like bolter this year?

[layzie 33,647]

1 hour ago, Pennant St Dee said:

Within reason in regard to Roos comments, 2km time and character are great but you still need some physical traits and footy ability.  There’s plenty of players who are of fine character and run elite times but just undersized and that’s a big reason they remain at state league, country footy level.

Hamish Davis is of excellent character and ran top 5 in the 2km, but he isn’t a top 10 pick

I agree and the other traits certainly matter up to a point. However is it fair to say it's a pretty reliable formula to use across the board on balance Pennant?

There's also the things they don't test for, I don't recall ever seeing an 'ability to win the ball' test for instance. 

[Supreme_Demon 3,645]

I think a lot will depend upon if North Melbourne is given a big offer to split pick #2 by Richmond.

If North Melbourne say no, then Richmond might come calling to us with a tempting deal for pick #5.

I wouldn't risk trading away pick #5 but I think offers for pick #9 the Demons might be open to considering.

[Colm 2,014]

2 minutes ago, Supreme_Demon said:

I think a lot will depend upon if North Melbourne is given a big offer to split pick #2 by Richmond.

If North Melbourne say no, then Richmond might come calling to us with a tempting deal for pick #5.

I wouldn't risk trading away pick #5 but I think offers for pick #9 the Demons might be open to considering.

The only deal I can see being on offer is 5 and 9 for 6,11 and 18. Would you take that if it was offered?!

[Supreme_Demon 3,645]

4 minutes ago, Colm said:

The only deal I can see being on offer is 5 and 9 for 6,11 and 18. Would you take that if it was offered?!

Yes absolutely.

I don't think Richmond are that stupid are they?! Unless Adem Yze is secretly sabotaging them! 🤣

Edited 14 hours ago by Supreme_Demon

[Pennant St Dee 12,929]

1 hour ago, layzie said:

I agree and the other traits certainly matter up to a point. However is it fair to say it's a pretty reliable formula to use across the board on balance Pennant?

There's also the things they don't test for, I don't recall ever seeing an 'ability to win the ball' test for instance. 

Yes they are reliable traits to look for, a lot of clubs overlooked Simon Black because he lacked pace, but what they didn’t take into account was he was a very good 400m runner with great endurance and by all accounts a very good character.

[Adam The God 29,846]

4 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

Interesting to see people sour on Jagga. He's the best performed midfielder in it and at worst will be a solid accumulator at AFL level. People saying his inside work wouldn't stack up at AFL level are a bit off IMO. He played a few games in the VFL late in the year and absolutely dominated mature bodies and AFL listed players. Averaged 27 disposals and 7 clearances across the three VFL matches. Had 50+ disposal games at CTL level. He's the best ball winner at underage level since Nick Daicos and projects similarly. 

If he was available to us at pick 5 it would be a very bold call to pass on him for someone else. I suspect he'll be gone before our pick though.

Completely agree. The kid is a gun.

The x factor is whether JT rates him top 6.

[KingDingAling 3,751]

Pick 5 and 9 are tremendous positions to be in this draft. I wouldn’t split 9.

I think we’ll get quality at 5. We’ll get a top 3 slider at 5, and a top 5 slider at 9.

So long as JT don’t reach for a Kolt, when a Darcy Wilson is right there for the taking. Hoping we’ve learnt the lesson. Smokey selections, save for the latter picks.

[dazzledavey36 53,857]

From the Age.

Melbourne

Arrivals: Tom Campbell (free agency), Harry Sharp (trade)
Departures: Angus Brayshaw (retired), Ben Brown (retired), Kyah Farris-White (delisted), Lachie Hunter (retired), Alex Neal-Bullen (trade), Josh Schache (delisted), Adam Tomlinson (delisted)
Draft picks: 5, 9
Uncontracted: Marty Hore, Joel Smith
Contracted: 37 (no category B rookies)
The Demons addressed needs in the player movement period, adding ruck depth (Campbell) behind Max Gawn before trading for Sharp, who will get the chance to replace Neal-Bullen in attack. They have two first-round picks, as they did last year with Caleb Windsor and Koltyn Tholstrup, and will make three selections overall. Melbourne may not place a bid on Essendon’s NGA prospect Isaac Kako after trading for the Bombers’ pick nine. Midfielders Harvey Langford, Sid Draper and Josh Smillie could get through to their first selection, while key forward Harry Armstrong, defenders Alix Tauru and Luke Trainor, and classy midfielder Xavier Lindsay might be in the mix at their second pick. Hore will score another one-year deal, but Smith will be delisted. Judd McVee will be upgraded to the primary list, and Andy Moniz-Wakefield can no longer be a category B rookie.

[Demon Disciple 11,939]

Any chance of Draper slipping through to our pick?

A fit Trac, reborn Clarry and Draper would be a dream midfield

[Gawndog98 313]

Not sure if anyone posted this one but this would be my dream result for us: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/41946825/afl-first-round-phantom-draft-2024-every-club-pick-richmond-sam-lalor-jagga-smith-finn-osullivan-bolters-sliders-more

[Lord Neville X Flash 268]

On 23/10/2024 at 00:18, 58er said:

Why not just get the players that are in front of you and not be too cute. Even in this flood of top chances some players are needed more than others I believe. 

Tauru at 5 and the best mid available at 9 looks the best strategy to me. Big player with huge upside will have the biggest effect on our forward line. Then any of the 7/8 mids are going to be a great choice at 9 yo add to our midfield.

While me need mids with pace and finishing skills I believe Sharp and Pup Brown could be big surprises if we use their run and carry smarts around the forward line especially. 

Tweaking  Windsor to the centre could well straighten us up also. He is such a good user of the ball and covers ground so well I find it hard to believe he couldn’t kick 15/20 goals from there in 2035. So

much more attacking just by his pace and style of game he reminds me of a potential Chad Warner and of.course on the wing Robbie Flower. 

Don't have an issue with using 5 and 9, and I would be v happy with Tauru and best mid.

But think its negligent not to entertain trade options.

I think its likely we see some trades on draft night, so clubs have more certainty about players they will get

Eg. If Melbourne really want someone at 5, but they go at 4, we might then trade down with Richmond