The Run Home

[Pates 9,592]

You're far more confident than I am Lucifer, which is great. 

I think we're a young team, I feel like we will lose 3 games with us possibly missing out on percentage. I just want us to end the season well to set us up for 2025.

[Dee Zephyr 19,124]

8 minutes ago, roy11 said:

 

To make it a little more interesting for Brisbane

The Cameron is one is interesting, in the sense we haven’t seen one similar. Not me anyway 

[titan_uranus 24,480]

2 hours ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Need to go 4-2. That will be a tough ask

Our percentage is not great and effectively puts us two games behind the top 4

Can't say I'd love an elimination final in Freo.

Well at least we know where we lost this season (Brisbane and West Coast)

I don’t know if a side has ever missed finals with 13 wins. 

If we become the first, IMO it won’t be the Brisbane loss that grates most. For me, it’ll be losing to Fremantle by 90 instead of “just”, say, 60. Just an enormous outlier margin-wise for the last 5 years. Losing by a kick to Brisbane in the form we were at that time in wasn’t anywhere near as galling. 

[Diamond_Jim 12,314]

4 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Losing by a kick to Brisbane in the form we were at that time in wasn’t anywhere near as galling. 

It was the first game against Brisbane that I regret. They were 0-3 and we were playing well

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,259]

2 hours ago, DubDee said:

The dogs are our bunnies.  pencil that one in too!

 

Nah nah nah NAH NAH na na NAH NAH

Hopefully we change the script this year but the Dogs typically get us in the return game (2021, 2022) of each year

[bing181 8,836]

2 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

We have a very tough draw, which ultimately what you want. However our run home form of the last 2 years has not been great. 

In 22 we were cooked after the efforts that 21 took, and in 23 we had the injury run from hell leading into the end of the season. Just losing Melksham was enough for the wheels to come off up forward.

[bing181 8,836]

2 hours ago, Pates said:

I think we're a young team, I feel like we will lose 3 games with us possibly missing out on percentage. I just want us to end the season well to set us up for 2025.

Would be great going forward for the youngsters to get a taste of finals footy. 

On the other hand, part of me is all for finishing a gallant 10th so we have a better run at the draft. Also, if it's clear that we won't make finals they might be more willing to give players like Jefferson a game or two.

[Lucifers Hero 38,747]

13 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I don’t know if a side has ever missed finals with 13 wins.

You could be right.

fwiw, I chose 14 as some teams have the benefit of a draw and/or %.  Also there it is now a 23 game season.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,017]

I hate to be repetitive ...... but ..... [censored] me that inexplicable loss to West Coast did us some damage.

[Roost it far 7,273]

It's the loss to Carlton that annoys me the most, firstly giving them a 6 goal start and then the late umpiring when we had them on toast.....

I haven't given up on causing some carnage in this years finals yet. If we can hit the finals fit there's no one in the 8 I don't think we can beat.....for now just beat Freo. There's a real John Northey vibe about us atm, I think we like being the hunters.

Edited July 15 by Roost it far

[Kent 2,822]

I have a feeling the DEES are about to get on a roll

6 - 0 wins is more than possible and will give momentum

we get past the Fockers and we could go all the way

[ElDiablo14 4,817]

16 hours ago, Binmans PA said:

I'm hoping it's season over for the GCS by the time we play them in Round 23.

Yep, need to focus on the first 3 games at hand.

If we go 2-1, it will be a great platform with GCS and Collingwood potentially already out of the race for finals.

[ElDiablo14 4,817]

16 hours ago, leave it to deever said:

Great thread LH.

And well presented and reasoned.

Thanks.

Huge clash this weekend.

Win this and with a quick return of our fearless Captain, I'm tipping top four. It's possible.

And these days the Swannies don't seem so invincible.

Although their percentage looks mammoth, considering is already Rd 18

[ElDiablo14 4,817]

13 hours ago, bing181 said:

In 22 we were cooked after the efforts that 21 took, and in 23 we had the injury run from hell leading into the end of the season. Just losing Melksham was enough for the wheels to come off up forward.

Fritsch first, then Petty, and to complete the trifecta Milkshake.

[Pennant St Dee 12,600]

29 minutes ago, Kent said:

I have a feeling the DEES are about to get on a roll

6 - 0 wins is more than possible and will give momentum

we get past the Fockers and we could go all the way

Sweet Jesus, I had a bad night sleep but checked twice this post is real

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,259]

None of the lads on First Crack have predicted us to make the 8. That includes Joey Montagna who's been our number 1 fan and defender the last 2 years and King who was the first analyst to jump on the MFC bandwagon (and the first to jump off) in 2017/2018.

I think this group will enjoy the tag of under dog going into the final weeks. We already saw it in the first 5 weeks of the season when everyone wrote off us due to our culture, but we responded with a 4-1 start and a magnificent Adelaide Oval double. I can't explain what went wrong between the Carlton game through to Kings B'day.

If we are to make the finals, and play an elimination final (particularly interstate), I think there will be less pressure on the boys this time around. There won't be that fear of going out in straight sets and that might help in their conversion around goals which was the main reason we didn't win a final.

If the Freo game doesn't work out, then the GWS game is essentially last chance saloon due to our percentage. 

[Stu 901]

39 minutes ago, ElDiablo14 said:

Fritsch first, then Petty, and to complete the trifecta Milkshake.

In 2023 we won 7 of the last 8 games, with the one loss against the blues by a margin of one goal line decision. 

Goodwin said last year there was a focus on playing well at the right end of the season (compared to how 2022 went) and he’s said a lot similar this year.

Given how well we’ve played since the bye, I’m bullish about our chances over the next 6 weeks. I think we will at a minimum get to host a final. 

[leave it to deever 17,401]

16 hours ago, Gawndy the Great said:

Generally speaking 16 wins gets you top 4. We are on 10 and have 6 games to go. Also this year the comp is a little more even so it maybe that 15 games is a lock for top 4. Other than Sydney, the run home is wide open. 

We have a very tough draw, which ultimately what you want. However our run home form of the last 2 years has not been great. 

Still think we'll struggle to make the 8 with a 2-4 or 3-3 the most likely result. I think this year 13 wins is top 8. 

I think maybe 12 will get the job done if a high percentage is in play.

Or 12 and a draw.

Each year I keep thinking this is the closest season yet.

I'm pretty sure the last round will offer some chances for quite a few.

I've been wondering though that it's all irrelevant given how strong Sydney have been but they look a little wobbly of late. In fact losing to the Saints....very wobbly. They have the lions, Power and the bombers all away.

[DubDee 24,106]

we lost to Freo by almost 100 pts at home and some people we could beat them away?

I know we had an off night and all but we haven’t beaten a good team since round 8

[Gorgoroth 12,656]

If we don't make the 8 and I am far from confident, yes the WC game was putrid but it was the 0 goals in the last vs Lions that hurts even more. We had that game in our control and brown stained the bed.

 

[titan_uranus 24,480]

29 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

None of the lads on First Crack have predicted us to make the 8. That includes Joey Montagna who's been our number 1 fan and defender the last 2 years and King who was the first analyst to jump on the MFC bandwagon (and the first to jump off) in 2017/2018.

I think this group will enjoy the tag of under dog going into the final weeks. We already saw it in the first 5 weeks of the season when everyone wrote off us due to our culture, but we responded with a 4-1 start and a magnificent Adelaide Oval double. I can't explain what went wrong between the Carlton game through to Kings B'day.

If we are to make the finals, and play an elimination final (particularly interstate), I think there will be less pressure on the boys this time around. There won't be that fear of going out in straight sets and that might help in their conversion around goals which was the main reason we didn't win a final.

If the Freo game doesn't work out, then the GWS game is essentially last chance saloon due to our percentage. 

I agree with this. 

Can’t go 0-2 the next fortnight. Has to be 1-1 minimum. And we have to go back to our 2020-23 ability to minimise the damage if we are losing - cannot afford Fremantle, West Coast or Collingwood style big losses on the scoreboard.

However, being written off or not rated is what I want. One of the players mentioned that we embraced the “backs to the wall” mentality going into the Essendon game and I want us to harness that for as long as possible. A win this week will change a lot of people’s perceptions but staying underdogs as long as possible suits me tbh.

[titan_uranus 24,480]

26 minutes ago, DubDee said:

we lost to Freo by almost 100 pts at home and some people we could beat them away?

I know we had an off night and all but we haven’t beaten a good team since round 8

This is true, and worth us all bearing in mind (some rate Essendon but I don’t).

But it’s not so much the opposition but the fundamentals in our game since the bye that excite me. The fourth quarters vs North and Brisbane aside, for 14 of the last 16 quarters we’ve played, we’ve looked markedly better than we did pre-bye in most facets of the game. We’re more contested, pressure feels up, we’re transitioning the ball better, and there’s a bit of an intangible vibrancy coming from the kids (Kolt, AMW, JVR, Windsor, McVee, Woewodin). 

[Roost it far 7,273]

I know loading is a dirty word around here but it fits our formline. Cameron Ling on the ABC Sunday pre coverage talked about clubs in the hunt putting in a serious block of training mid year and then tapering off coming into finals so as to be cherry ripe. He mentioned the risk is you likely cop some losses along the way. It could also easily explain Carlton and Sydney's drop off of late. The Flag hunt is wide open, if I was Sydney or Carlton I wouldn't want to be playing a full strength us or GWS come September. Gotta bag a win this week.

Edited July 16 by Roost it far

[old55 22,620]

1 hour ago, DubDee said:

we lost to Freo by almost 100 pts at home and some people we could beat them away?

I know we had an off night and all but we haven’t beaten a good team since round 8

That was in Alice Springs in the daytime but I get the sentiment, it was a drubbing.

[Neil Crompton 5,267]

When we make the finals- as I’m certain we will - we will have come into September with momentum and belief. As such, I can see us doing some serious damage, and a grand final appearance a likely scenario.