This week’s match preview - the people speak

[Demonland 72,193]

This week Melbourne is faced with a monumental challenge.

The task is to overcome a 92 point loss incurred at the beginning of last month without two of the club's best players - in other words, achieve a 15½ goal turn around.

Clubs have done it before (Essendon did it earlier this year against the Giants) but we want you to tell us if it's possible and if so, how.

This is your chance to be part of our match preview for the game vs Fremantle.

Tell us in your own words, who will win and why?

It can be short or long and the best entries make it into our match preview *

We will also consider including posts in the pre-game thread.

Give it a try - who knows, Goody might stumble upon your preview and you could even influence the result?

* subject to editing if necessary

PLEASE POST YOUR REVIEWS (SHORT OR LONG) BELOW ...

[Nascent 9,212]

Winner: Melbourne

Why: Because

[Ollie fan 3,408]

The real question is: why were we so bad in Alice? 
 

I don't know what was going on there but that is NOT the benchmark to start from. 

We can win because our backs are better than their forwards, and our forward line is starting to work- thanks to Kozzie, Melksham and hard work by the others.

[whatwhat say what 22,757]

it's going to be a pretty different team to the one that got smashed

lever, melksham IN
petracca, gawn OUT

and who knows else will change

bring the right attitude to the contest, attack via defence, get a bit of scoreboard momentum early...

at the end of the match, we'll either be in a better position in the 8 or we'll be three games from 2nd

it's a funny ol' season and there's a lot to play out still

[gs77 4,252]

Pretty sure at the opening bounce we both start at 0. Last time doesn't mean [censored].

[loges 6,767]

We can win because if Hawthorn can beat them so can we.

[In Harmes Way 7,783]

Because Optus Stadium is our fortress*

 

* Ignoring WCE result this year 

[The Third Eye 259]

It’s true that Melbourne is faced with a monumental challenge but it’s not about turning around a negative 15½ goal outcome against Fremantle which is where it finished in Alice Springs early last month.

It’s all about winning a game where both sides start with the score at 0.0.0 each, play under different conditions, on a different ground in a different city (albeit the home of the Dockers), with different players and with many of the same players of differing physical freshness and mental attitudes.

There’s been an outcry and a lot of tears about the fact that the Demons have been forced to soldier on without two AFL top liners in Max Gawn and Christian Petracca but when you compare the makeup of the Melbourne team of round 12 with the team of round 18, there are some significant changes for the better even if you can never replace Max and Christian. These are the changes between the two games -

Out Max Gawn, Lachie Hunter, Christian Petracca, Shane McAdam, Adam Tomlinson

In Jake Lever, Jake Melksham, Andy Moniz-Wakefield, Koltyn Tholstrup, Jacob van Rooyen.

That’s a mixed bag of players coming in which includes two experienced players in Lever and  Melksham. One adds cohesion to the defence, the other adds steel to the attack which was not functioning properly on 2 June 2024 when Melbourne flopped badly to the purple people. 

The other three are JvR who is in massive form as a forward and relief ruckman, and two youngsters playing with great enthusiasm. They replace McAdam who was held scoreless, Hunter who was ineffective before he was subbed off at half time with a calf injury and Adam Tomlinson who worked hard but he doesn’t compare with Lever. 

There are a number of Melbourne players who have lifted several notches including wingers Ed Langdon and Caleb Windsor. Their current form is uplifting and their attacking mindset is setting a different tone to the team’s performance.

The last time they met, it was said that the Dockers were completely switched on and primed to beat the Demons. They had an extra two days to prepare themselves for the game and this time they are coming off a shattering loss to Hawthorn.

Certainly, Freo will have an advantage in the ruck if Max isn’t ruled fit to play but in every other respect, the goalposts have been removed 360 degrees over the past six or seven weeks. Even Optus Stadium is Melbourne’s home away from home. 

[Whispering_Jack 30,136]

24 minutes ago, The Third Eye said:

It’s true that Melbourne is faced with a monumental challenge but it’s not about turning around a negative 15½ goal outcome against Fremantle which is where it finished in Alice Springs early last month.

It’s all about winning a game where both sides start with the score at 0.0.0 each, play under different conditions, on a different ground in a different city (albeit the home of the Dockers), with different players and with many of the same players of differing physical freshness and mental attitudes.

There’s been an outcry and a lot of tears about the fact that the Demons have been forced to soldier on without two AFL top liners in Max Gawn and Christian Petracca but when you compare the makeup of the Melbourne team of round 12 with the team of round 18, there are some significant changes for the better even if you can never replace Max and Christian. These are the changes between the two games -

Out Max Gawn, Lachie Hunter, Christian Petracca, Shane McAdam, Adam Tomlinson

In Jake Lever, Jake Melksham, Andy Moniz-Wakefield, Koltyn Tholstrup, Jacob van Rooyen.

That’s a mixed bag of players coming in which includes two experienced players in Lever and  Melksham. One adds cohesion to the defence, the other adds steel to the attack which was not functioning properly on 2 June 2024 when Melbourne flopped badly to the purple people. 

The other three are JvR who is in massive form as a forward and relief ruckman, and two youngsters playing with great enthusiasm. They replace McAdam who was held scoreless, Hunter who was ineffective before he was subbed off at half time with a calf injury and Adam Tomlinson who worked hard but he doesn’t compare with Lever. 

There are a number of Melbourne players who have lifted several notches including wingers Ed Langdon and Caleb Windsor. Their current form is uplifting and their attacking mindset is setting a different tone to the team’s performance.

The last time they met, it was said that the Dockers were completely switched on and primed to beat the Demons. They had an extra two days to prepare themselves for the game and this time they are coming off a shattering loss to Hawthorn.

Certainly, Freo will have an advantage in the ruck if Max isn’t ruled fit to play but in every other respect, the goalposts have been removed 360 degrees over the past six or seven weeks. Even Optus Stadium is Melbourne’s home away from home. 

Clubhouse leader.

[buck_nekkid 5,861]

Back to the future .

We return to Optus oval - the site of a terrible loss to West Coast - to face Freemantle - who put us to the sword by nearly 100 points.  Seems like we should be shaking in our boots.

We are now also without Gawn and Trac, and after one victory have sky-rocketed into the 8.

So, how are we going to go?> Only Nostradamus can know!

At our best, we will control the contest and the ground ball,  Our defence will be all strangling and hold them to under 72 points whilst our slick hands and smart plays will open our front 50 for a number of our forwards to cash in. Provided we play four quarters (not done this for a while), we have this.  

At our worst, we will lose the momentum early and never get it back.  We will mind grass and watch them sail away to the win.

So, the difference between these teams is really small.  They are about the same place on the ladder as us, they have excellence in the midfield and a few good sorts around the ground, and we..can be anything!

So, with my hopes running high, i say Dees by 22 points.

[Nascent 9,212]

10 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Clubhouse leader.

[Demonland 72,193]

To help our budding contributors, here’s our game information section. If you like, you can contribute a summary of the last time they met.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Fremantle at  on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 1.00pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Fremantle 26 wins Melbourne 18 wins
At Optus Stadium Fremantle 0 wins Melbourne 1 win 
Last five meetings Fremantle 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins
The Coaches Longmuir 4 wins Goodwin 2 wins

LAST TIME THEY MET

Fremantle 22.9.141 defeated Melbourne 7.7.49 at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs, Round 12, 2024

TEAMS (to be loaded when available)

MELBOURNE

FREMANTLE

Injury List: Round 19

[MO FINE 171]

I think it should be mentioned that since that terrible day at Alice Springs is that the coach has benefited from some learnings and is managing the players so much better over recent times. An example is the way Clarry is being managed to get the best out of him in light of his highly interrupted pre season which has limited his performance from time to time. On Saturday, he spent a fair amount of time on the bench in the first quarter and was limited to just one disposal. He got into the thick of things as soon as the second quarter started and added 10 possessions to his belt by half time and finished the game with 25 disposals. It was telling that Goody went to him soon after the final siren and looked so pleased with Clarry and his contribution on the night. 

[OhMyDees 1,834]

In 2022, I was at a wet Optus Oval watching us dismantle the Dockers.

We did this by keeping a strong zoned defence, and forcing them to the wing instead of the corridor. They just couldn’t move the ball quickly in the wet, couldn’t switch it and this played into our strengths. 

Our game plan if executed with vigour should stack up well against Fremantle. The conditions will be wet which again suits us given how well we adapted last week. 

Dees by 12 points

[Pinball Wizard 315]

Goodwin should be spending much of his time this week watching vision of the Dockers to get an insight on how they turned his team into a bumbling rabble on that fateful day in Alice Springs. He will probably notice that their midfield destroyed us. Players like Serong, Brayshaw, Young, O’Meara, Fyfe and Clark helped them win the clearance count by more than double, 48 to 23. This was despite the fact that thanks to Max, the Dees won the hit outs by 35 to 32. The Fremantle defence was awesome that day and didn’t let the wind get through let alone any of the Melbourne forwards. The lesson from the day was to be switched on, more desperate and get your hands on the pill first. That’s the tale in a nutshell.

That could be easier said than done but it might be also be worthwhile for Goody to cast an eye over the tape of Freo’s game on Saturday in Tassie where the young Hawks plugged away and got the W in the end.

[Pinball Wizard 315]

Oh, and I heard an interesting statistic on one of the football shows on tv last night. The match winning percentage of teams that win the hit outs is 49%. We don’t necessarily have to win the hit outs to win the game.

[chookrat 4,250]

Winner = Melbourne

Why = Not loading

[Whispering_Jack 30,136]

3 minutes ago, chookrat said:

Winner = Melbourne

Why = Not loading

Perhaps @binman might wish to expand on this thought and what it might mean for the Dees on Sunday 😀

[Roger Mellie 4,025]

49 minutes ago, chookrat said:

Winner = Melbourne

Why = Not loading

Goodwin said at the start of the season that in 2023 we started like a train and limped home. The 'learnings' from that, were that the team would be primed to finish the season strongly rather than start. The way we are playing at the moment it looks like it's going to plan - eg. Windsor looked cooked a few weeks ago and now is playing brilliant footy. The players, with few exceptions, look fit and fresh.

Only one team has won a premiership at that ground too!

 

[Wells 11 5,401]

16 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

The real question is: why were we so bad in Alice? 
 

I don't know what was going on there but that is NOT the benchmark to start from. 

We can win because our backs are better than their forwards, and our forward line is starting to work- thanks to Kozzie, Melksham and hard work by the others.

That was the worst Ive seen the dees play in about 7 or 8 years and the players will know that too. 

After the last few weeks Im going with Binmans loading explanation for that plus the 2 extra days break they had exacerbating that possibility. This is a proud club, playing back on the ground they won a flag on,  wanting to atone for a really embarassing performance last time. Whatever the result dees will be bringing  the heat. 

In short .... Dees in a tight tussle. Petty to kick the winning goal after the siren :-) 

[binman 42,972]

56 minutes ago, Roger Mellie said:

Goodwin said at the start of the season that in 2023 we started like a train and limped home. The 'learnings' from that, were that the team would be primed to finish the season strongly rather than start. The way we are playing at the moment it looks like it's going to plan - eg. Windsor looked cooked a few weeks ago and now is playing brilliant footy. The players, with few exceptions, look fit and fresh.

Only one team has won a premiership at that ground too!

 

As a generalisation, the form of teams in the weeks leading into their bye, and in the one or two weeks after their bye should be ignored. 

As a footy punter it is a treacherous period and I tread warily.

But it does throw up some real value as many punters think of form in terms of week to week performances or blocks of 2 games.

So port are great value against the Dogs because in their previous 2 games they got absolutely thrashed by the lions and scrapped in against the saints.

And so are terrific value at the line at home against the dogs, who had been in good form.

Port thrash the dogs and so people jump off the dogs and they are therefore great value at the line against the blues.

But we are now passed that phase and form is now more trustworthy.

The way to think about this game is not how we played last time we met the dockers but what our best football looks like versus their best football.

The same can be applied to all matches from here on in. The first 6-7 rounds give the best guide, injuries notwithstanding.

As I've noted, I don't bet on dees games, but if I did I would launched into us at the line against the bombers because our best football is better than that of the bombers.

Edited July 15 by binman

[Maxie 22]

An interesting stat or a boomer with too much time on his hands? But….. we have played Freo and lost in three games at almost the exact time of the season since 2022.  Round 11 in both ‘22 & ‘23 and round 12 this year. I remember going to the MCG games and noting how cooked we seemed. Round 12 at the Alice was like watching a team with concrete in their boots. Binman’s loading theory looking sound. 

 

[leave it to deever 17,511]

21 minutes ago, binman said:

way to think about this game is not how we played last time we met the dockers but what our best football looks like versus their best football

I wonder how difficult it is for coaching staff to get that into the player's mindset.

With fixtures these days allowing for teams to play one another twice without a significant amount of time since previous encounters, it doesn't help.

That was a humiliating loss for us but it wasn't isolated.

We were playing some good football and some shocking football. We were all over the place and in the game against the Blues our inconsistent play was evident from quarter to quarter.

Going in this time we seem a lot more stable. I just hope that the last loss to them hasn't left any deep scar tissue.

Perhaps it will work for us with the Dockers being over confident.

In any event it's a massive game for us. A chance to take a big scalp. Freo are for me are above the Blues and second favorite to win a flag . 

Win this one and we will definitely be playing finals. Quite possibly a real chance to finish top four.

No pressure,😀

 

[DiscoStu17 731]

18 hours ago, Ollie fan said:

The real question is: why were we so bad in Alice? 
 

I don't know what was going on there but that is NOT the benchmark to start from. 

We can win because our backs are better than their forwards, and our forward line is starting to work- thanks to Kozzie, Melksham and hard work by the others.

It was obviously the weather. 
22° with a light breeze.

The players just weren’t prepared for that.

We need WA to give us some really [censored] weather. Deluges, thunderstorms, maybe not hail?

Obviously not while the plane is in the air. 

[binman 42,972]

46 minutes ago, Maxie said:

An interesting stat or a boomer with too much time on his hands? But….. we have played Freo and lost in three games at almost the exact time of the season since 2022.  Round 11 in both ‘22 & ‘23 and round 12 this year. I remember going to the MCG games and noting how cooked we seemed. Round 12 at the Alice was like watching a team with concrete in their boots. Binman’s loading theory looking sound. 

 

It's not really a theory as such.

Edited July 16 by binman