Welcome to Demonland: Pick 11

[Jaded No More 68,966]

Just now, Diamond_Jim said:

Agree but I doubt we have the currency for pick 1.

How do we compare with the Hawks now ?

I don’t think we make this trade unless we have something else already in the pipeline.

Either we are trying to get pick 1, or we have a big name trade that we need to acquire top 10 picks for. 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Just now, Swooper1987 said:

It's part of a bigger plan.  I'd say Petty is going.  They are going hard for pick 1.  10 from Adelaide and McAdam for Petty, gives us 6, 10 and 11 to work into pick 1.

That’s way over for Pick 1… way overs. Hold onto Petty and give WC 6,11 and F1. Norf cannot beat that unless they give up both 2 and 3.

[seventyfour 1,142]

8 minutes ago, Yarra Valley Demon said:

Silly move, 1300 points for 2300 points.  Crazy.

Points are just convenient way to look at pick value. Picks 7 and 8 are together worth the same points as Pick 1, but you wouldn't trade Picks 7 and 8 if the player at pick 1 was Christian Petracca.

[Wrecker46 2,997]

2 minutes ago, Clintosaurus said:

Chill, Winston. Tim Lamb knows what he is doing.

This. We seem to do well when we trade picks

[Fat Tony 5,252]

I don't like the strategy of burning second round picks to get up the draft order 3 places. I would prefer we trade our second rounders into the future.

[Swooper1987 3,322]

Just now, Gawndy the Great said:

That’s way over for Pick 1… way overs. Hold onto Petty and give WC 6,11 and F1. Norf cannot beat that unless they give up both 2 and 3.

WC and Melbourne have been talking for a while.  They'll have told Lamb exactly what they want.  All the Petty talk is for a reason.  It's not in WC interests to work with North right now.

[Nascent 9,217]

Don't like to get too wrapped up in points value, however we have given up 1000 points to rise from 14 to 11 while crows only gave up 400 odd points to go from 23 to 14. And they got a player.

Edit: end of the day we had to pay a premium for a prized selection that had competition. I'll back the club on this.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Nascent

[Robbie87 139]

Tim Lamb has the runs on the board - I think I will go with his strategy rather than posters' reactive ruminations.

[titan_uranus 25,020]

I have learnt from previous years to trust the club on these pick swaps, but this one is hard to get around, it feels like it is costing us heaps just to move 3 spots up. 

But I will wait and see what it all looks like at the end.

[Axis of Bob 11,836]

1 hour ago, seventyfour said:

Points are just convenient way to look at pick value. Picks 7 and 8 are together worth the same points as Pick 1, but you wouldn't trade Picks 7 and 8 if the player at pick 1 was Christian Petracca.

100% this.

You don't play footy with picks, you play it with players. Whilst it's tough to think about during trade week, each draft pick is a player and some are worth more than others. If we think that the first 3 players will be Hodge, Ball and Judd, whilst the next 3 are Polak, X Clarke and Sampi, then you'd be tempted to trade picks 4 and 5 for pick 3.

It just depends how we rate the players and where we think those big drop offs occur.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Axis of Bob

[Pipefitter 2,163]

Ahhh the suspense. Where is this pick going?

[RedBlueandTrue 359]

You just can't know what's really going on here so it's impossible to judge. Recruiters might believe there's a big gulf in talent between player 11 and 12 in the draft. Impossible to really know the value of the draft picks without knowing what the recruiting team are thinking. 

[Davos 922]

I'd implore everyone to go back through the past 3 drafts, take away academy kids, and assess the performance of every player taken between picks 25-35. 

Those picks are worth almost nothing to us - this deal is fine even if we sit on 6 and 11.

[Wrecker46 2,997]

I'm death riding whoevers picked at 14

[picket fence 17,179]

So what have we got pick wise now?

[Ungarieboy 439]

11 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Don't like to get too wrapped up in points value, however we have given up 1000 points to rise from 14 to 11 while crows only gave up 400 odd points to go from 23 to 14. And they got a player.

Whats the chances this creates a favourable McAddam deal in the future, considering how well they've benefited from this one.

[McQueen 17,865]

This is like bingeing a series on tele. 
 

Completely unproductive for work and ultimately pointless but…

[Abyssal 465]

2 minutes ago, Ungarieboy said:

Whats the chances this creates a favourable McAddam deal in the future, considering how well they've benefited from this one.

I agree.

Otherwise, As it sits right now, how do we pay for McAddam and Fullarton with only P41 ?

[TheoX 1,222]

Seems a lot to give up for 3 spots, obviously have something else in mind for the pick.

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

1 minute ago, Abyssal said:

I agree.

Otherwise, As it sits right now, how do we pay for McAddam and Fullarton with only P41 ?

Grundy and futures. 

[brendan 3,437]

1 minute ago, Abyssal said:

I agree.

Otherwise, As it sits right now, how do we pay for McAddam and Fullarton with only P41 ?

Fullerton will be future 3rd we got for harmes and McAdam will be what we get for Grundy 

[Dee-licious 1,953]

It is a gulf between 11 and 14 so I’m not too mad in that sense - does seem a lot to give, but they have plans. 
 

glad that we are holding firm on Grundy and if we end up with 6 and 11 that’s still a good hand. 

[Fat Tony 5,252]

16 minutes ago, Axis of Bob said:

100% this.

You don't play footy with picks, you play it with players. Whilst it's tough to think about during trade week, each day pick is a player and done are worth more than others. If we think that the first 3 players will be Hodge, Ball and Judd, whilst the next 3 are Polak, X Clarke and Sampi, then you'd be tempted to trade picks 4 and 5 for pick 3.

It just depends how we rate the players and where we think those big drop offs occur.

This is true, but the different ranking of players by clubs means that the benefit of moving up from #14 to #11 is less certain. We might have sold two second round picks to get the same player at #11 as we would have at #14.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Fat Tony

[Abyssal 465]

1 minute ago, brendan said:

Fullerton will be future 3rd we got for harmes and McAdam will be what we get for Grundy 

Yes, should have kept my mouth shut.

[Dee-licious 1,953]

It is a gulf between 11 and 14 so I’m not too mad in that sense - does seem a lot to give, but they have plans. 
 

glad that we are holding firm on Grundy and if we end up with 6 and 11 that’s still a good hand.