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Welcome to Demonland: Jack Billings


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9 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

No, I just think footy stats are incredibly devoid of context. I’m better Daicos had a way higher metres gained than even peak Billings, and in things not measured or freely available - speed of ball movement and risk/kick rating I’m tipping he’d move it faster and to better spots. 

Factors ignored by basic stats but evident when one player is All Aus and the other battles away in the VFL for a lot of games because Ross Lyon doesn’t want to play him. 

Maybe I’ve undersold Billings’ field kicking but aside from the significant injury risk I don’t see him as an upgrade at half forward or on the wing. 

Why are you comparing Billings with Daicos? We are not trying to pick up a Daicos. Yes Daicos has a higher MG but only by 40m. Their average MG/Disposal is exactly the same. If JB is fit and can do a preseason then he will be a good acquisition. His 2019 form was excellent.

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Worth the punt. But the risk is you'd be moving Harmes' cash onto Billings who is also a chance to be outside the best 22.

He's always struck me as the type who might actually be handy in a top 4 side.

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2 minutes ago, djr said:

Why are you comparing Billings with Daicos? We are not trying to pick up a Daicos. Yes Daicos has a higher MG but only by 40m. Their average MG/Disposal is exactly the same. If JB is fit and can do a preseason then he will be a good acquisition. His 2019 form was excellent.

I think you will find Dazzle brought up Daicos first. 

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12 minutes ago, djr said:

Why are you comparing Billings with Daicos? We are not trying to pick up a Daicos. Yes Daicos has a higher MG but only by 40m. Their average MG/Disposal is exactly the same. If JB is fit and can do a preseason then he will be a good acquisition. His 2019 form was excellent.

I didn’t.

And if 2019 wasn’t 4 years ago that might be a factor. 

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Huge yes, especially if the Saints are chipping in some of his wage, costs nothing and has played some really strong footy at times

The Saints sadly haven't been able to develop a lot of the good players they've had come through, JB is one i still think can become a really solid AFL player

 

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Billings is a good user forward of centre, but I wonder if he's a damaging enough user to offset his inability to defend the other way?

That would be the question mark I'd have on him.

You can't just be a good ball user in the modern game and not be able to defend both ways. 

You need to be an elite user and be able to wokr both ways or your exploitable.

If the club reckons they can get him running both ways, then he'd fill a cheap need as a forward half connector.

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11 minutes ago, Binmans PA said:

Billings is a good user forward of centre, but I wonder if he's a damaging enough user to offset his inability to defend the other way?

That would be the question mark I'd have on him.

You can't just be a good ball user in the modern game and not be able to defend both ways. 

You need to be an elite user and be able to wokr both ways or your exploitable.

If the club reckons they can get him running both ways, then he'd fill a cheap need as a forward half connector.

What are you trying to say....?   

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3 hours ago, DeeSpencer said:

That’s disposal efficiency, his kicking efficiency has been above average or average for his career. But his contested possession rate has always been below average in the mid to high 20%. 

If you’re getting uncontested ball you should hit a higher percentage of effective disposals, doesn’t mean you’re an impactful kick. He lacks penetration.

He’d be a slightly better kick than Hunter on a wing but there’s no way to trust his body. And lack of pace and lack of kicking penetration would hurt us just like they do with Hunter. I guess his 30m kicks would be better than Lachie’s heaves. But it would just be a different flavour of older slower wing.

He’d definitely be a better short inside 50 kick than some of our half forward options but he’s never been a pressure player. I’d rather in form Spargo who can pressure and kick inside 50 or put more time in to kids.

Spargo is not a high pressure forward and doesn't have the goal scoring potential of Billings. When in form, the ceiling of Billings compared to Spargo is like chalk and cheese. 

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But who in our front half does he replace? 
Assuming we get McAdam

McAdam, JVR, ANB

Picket, Petty, Fritsch.

At most it's a bench position instead of Spargo/Chin.  

I can't see him replacing Hunter, Langdon, Salem, McVee.

We'd be bringing him in for depth, ... thats what he currently is at the saints...   

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9 minutes ago, Ouch! said:

But who in our front half does he replace? 
Assuming we get McAdam

McAdam, JVR, ANB

Picket, Petty, Fritsch.

At most it's a bench position instead of Spargo/Chin.  

I can't see him replacing Hunter, Langdon, Salem, McVee.

We'd be bringing him in for depth, ... thats what he currently is at the saints...   

Yeh depth, he is a high half fwd type, so would have too push out ANB and Spargo.

For the right price go for it, but not that super keen on it.  The interest in him so far shows that clubs will look at him as an end of trade period thing once they know the list spots left.

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16 minutes ago, adonski said:

An upgraded Chandler

Really?  I think Chin was good this year, his form dip coincided with the drop in quality of delivery to the forward line. 

Don't think Billings is going to be a tackling and seeking the contest, he's more an uncontested type of player suited to HFF and wing, rather than deep forward. He's more a Spargo side grade or an ANB downgrade :D

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Just now, Ouch! said:

Really?  I think Chin was good this year, his form dip coincided with the drop in quality of delivery to the forward line. 

Don't think Billings is going to be a tackling and seeking the contest, he's more an uncontested type of player suited to HFF and wing, rather than deep forward. He's more a Spargo side grade or an ANB downgrade :D

Chandlers first 8 weeks were pleasing but I remain sceptical 

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