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4 hours ago, YesitwasaWin4theAges said:

We have a day extra recovery on Carlton, they limped over the line in the last, we finished very strongly.

They players would be angry how they let that opportunity slip threw their fingers, this is different from last year.

One word its all it is "Composure" all that was missing from the white board, Composure in front of goal.

What's done is done we are in good health.

Minus Brayshaw, JVR and Gawn’s foot

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4 hours ago, Nascent said:

I think we can do it.

We are playing a great brand of finals contested footy and won nearly all the stats that matter (yes, except the one that matters most).

We aren't limping to the finish line with a banged up list like last year. To the contrary, we are storming home in most games.

Teams should rightly fear playing us and I'm sure if you asked the Collingwood FD they probably wouldn't want to play us again in the Grand Final.

Judt a banged up forward line including one of the best bricks in the previous defensive wall ( which was the best in the competition 

4 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

We are one of six left after today. It feels like the whole AFL landscape is against us, going all the way from here would be the sweetest thing ever.
Our boys just don’t roll over no matter how many players we lose. Neither should we as supporters. 

What has rolling over to do with supporters understanding that the  unlikeliest victory is exactly that..!!

Now the coach and the players...they won't be rolling over...that's relevant.

Should they win it will be because of  their commitment, not yours

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15 minutes ago, binman said:

Sorry, not sure i follow.

How did i get the 'facts' about QF losers wrong?

Dud you not say QF losers were historically likely to win the flag?

If you didn't then I apologise,but the fact is they are statistically much more likely not to.

 

Of course with no forward line to speak of and having lost the QF should the Dee's win the flag it would be truly  a sporting triumph 

Anyway as far as stats go the seasons forward 50 entries per half is the most relevant one.

Perhaps the only relevant one

Edited by IRW
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4 hours ago, Redleg said:

And we don't seem to be getting any.

We clearly have the most injured squad of the finalists, with the most best 23 players unavailable.

And that makes all the difference, in 2021 we had a dream run. 

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3 hours ago, Little Goffy said:

The pre-finals bye makes an interesting difference to the value of the week off, and yes, even prior to that in 20 years there were five different QF losing teams who clawed their way to the premiership. Plus throw in the Dogs doing it from the bottom half of the 8.

Let's just look at the most likely scenario.

To be premiers in 2023 we need to beat Carlton, Brisbane and Collingwood.

Fascinatingly, we're now 1 win 1 loss this season against all three of those teams!

Total margin from those six games is... (11, 17, 4, 1, 4, 7) 44 points, or 7.3 per game.

It is absolutely knife-edge stuff and if you think it can't be done please stay away from the club until it is over!

Port Adelaide fans object to this post.

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57 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

I just don’t know where our goals will come from unless BBB magically comes good or Grundy and Fritsch and Trac and Koz can have a day out with 3 from Chin. 

Just as an aside, Melbourne has only seven players who have kicked more than 12 goals this entire season.

Only 2 of those are missing next week: JVR and Melksham.

 

Those seven have played a combined 141 games this year out of 168 possible. So on average, less than six of the seven have played each week.

 

Yeah it's not great, but this year our goals have come from everywhere not from a small group of key players. And that will need to be the plan next week.

 

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1 hour ago, Watson11 said:

The optimist says 25% of flags won by QF losers.  The pessimist says 12.5% of QF losers win the flag. 

The realist says 12.5% of final 8 teams (1/8*100=12.5) win the flag, so that lines up nicely with the pessimistic view. If the realist and the pessimist are in lockstep then you've got a pretty good shot at it being real.

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7 minutes ago, deanox said:

Just as an aside, Melbourne has only seven players who have kicked more than 12 goals this entire season.

Only 2 of those are missing next week: JVR and Melksham.

 

Those seven have played a combined 141 games this year out of 168 possible. So on average, less than six of the seven have played each week.

 

Yeah it's not great, but this year our goals have come from everywhere not from a small group of key players. And that will need to be the plan next week.

 

It’s the knock on effect. Melk crucial marks and taking quality back. JVR same plus clunking / halving contests. I’d suggest it’s a bigger impact than just the goals 

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6 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

It’s the knock on effect. Melk crucial marks and taking quality back. JVR same plus clunking / halving contests. I’d suggest it’s a bigger impact than just the goals 

I agree with that completely.

I'm actually less concerned about "where our goals will come from" than "how we will generate scoring opportunities once inside 50 by nullifying opposition defenders".

It's why I don't think Turner forward is a terrible idea. Telling him to play as a tall defender but in the F50 actually might achieve what we need to achieve in bringing the ball to ground and creating opportunities. That's what Melk brought.

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37 minutes ago, IRW said:

Dud you not say QF losers were historically likely to win the flag?

If you didn't then I apologise,but the fact is they are statistically much more likely not to.

No i didn't.

I wrote:

  • I'm pretty sure since the final 8 I has been in place, a pretty high percentage of flag winners lost their QF.

Then BDA posted the 5 teams that have won the GF after losing their QF since the final 8 system strted in 2000. I then posted a bit later (not long after you posted - 'My guess is that's just wrong', i assume in response to my post in the dot point above):

  • Well, you can put all sort of caveats on it, but the fact remains that since the final 8 came in in 2000 nearly 25% of the flag winners lost their QF. 

Of course the team losing their QF is statistically much more likely not to win the flag - but one in four aint bad odds.

For context the Pies are 2.50 to the win the falg.

Lets assume they are accurate odds, at that price they are still statistically more likely not to win the flag. And they won their QF!

In fact the implied probability of the Pies not winning the flag is 60%

Edited by binman
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4 hours ago, Redleg said:

H. McKay and Ben King have never been gettable previously.

How would any of us know this to be true?

The question is, have we gone hard enough for a big, young key forward?

I can't see it

The $600k we are paying Grundy, plus a bit more would've been tempting to any forward. We've had some 1st and 2nd round picks available

Edit. Actually, both McKay and Curnow were available to us in their draft when we were rebuilding. We chose Weid

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1 minute ago, Stiff Arm said:

How would any of us know this to be true?

The question is, have we gone hard enough for a big, young key forward?

I can't see it

The $600k we are paying Grundy, plus a bit more would've been tempting to any forward. We've had some 1st and 2nd round picks available

How do you know it not to be true? Relax Stiffy, too much blood going into your head. Time to go flaccid mate!! 

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29 minutes ago, binman said:

No i didn't.

I wrote:

  • I'm pretty sure since the final 8 I has been in place, a pretty high percentage of flag winners lost their QF.

Then BDA posted the 5 teams that have won the GF after losing their QF since the final 8 system strted in 2000. I then posted a bit later (not long after you posted - 'My guess is that's just wrong', i assume in response to my post in the dot point above):

  • Well, you can put all sort of caveats on it, but the fact remains that since the final 8 came in in 2000 nearly 25% of the flag winners lost their QF. 

Of course the team losing their QF is statistically much more likely not to win the flag - but one in four aint bad odds.

For context the Pies are 2.50 to the win the falg.

Lets assume they are accurate odds, at that price they are still statistically more likely not to win the flag. And they won their QF!

In fact the implied probability of the Pies not winning the flag is 60%

Can’t believe we lost to those mugs

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6 hours ago, BDA said:

The week off helps, with only five teams – Brisbane in 2003, Sydney in 2005, West Coast in 2006, Hawthorn in 2015 and Richmond in 2020 – losing qualifying finals, then winning the flag

it can be done and has been done. We're still a tough proposition for Carlton and Brisbane (if they win their QF). We have the grit and resilience to stay in those games and win.

I just don't know if we can kick a score to win. where are the goals going to come from?

Also add to that stat, the Doggies who zig- zagged their way from outside the 8 to win their flag - by that, I mean they played the maximum games in a finals series.

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The pre finals bye to my mind makes it slightly easier for a team to bounce back if they're good enough.

The teams that win through get another week off and on this years form most have lost off the bye.

Plus we have a nice 8 day break, then if we win probably another 8 day break to the Prelim.

At the moment I would still have C/Wood as flag favourites but for us all is not lost.

...but Goody will need to pull a rabbit out the hat to get us a winning score.

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