The Run Home

[leave it to deever 17,506]

Just now, binman said:

But also the if we beat (insert team) narrative has a logical flaw because each game is not independent of others - that's to say individual matches may influence subsequent matches.

For example, let's take the close loss to GWS.

Maybe we took some lessons from that loss that helped us knock off the saints in the next match.

Or maybe if we had beaten gws we might have gone into the saints game over confident and lost as a result.

Losses provide lessons that closr wins might not.

So perhaps the learnings from the close giants losd fed into some changes to our late game systems that helped us hold off the crows.

Who knows what impact close losses might have had on subsequent results.

Or for that matter what impact a hypothetical reversal of such losses might have had.

It's the Freo loss that still irks me. At the time Freo were on a roll only to fade away after they beat us. On any given day this season it seems that most teams are a threat. It will be an interesting run home for everyone when it seemed that two and three were locked in.

[Demonstone 22,182]

I'm not as convinced as some posters that Buddy Franklin's last game (if he's fit) in Round 24 will give the Swans any sort of boost against us.  I just don't see it as a strong motivating factor.

[Redleg 40,776]

43 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

That's how you end up in serious mental trouble there Mr Leg. Can't change the past, no point in dwelling on it.

Those what ifs work both ways. What if that was a mark to hipwood on the siren and he kicks the goal, what if adelaide beat us last week...... 

2nd by the  end of next week will do me just fine 🙂 

😀🍷🍺

[Clintosaurus 7,808]

Now second favourite at $6. Pies $2.75 (no change) and Port/Brisbane both $7. I expect we will shorten after a win today.

[Roost it far 8,104]

The Flags ours to lose.

[Kent 2,905]

10 hours ago, dl4e said:

Yes. Carlton could go through the rest of the year unbeaten. I know I sound negative but games like Richmond, Carlton and the swans are all danger games. I actually have more faith in beating the blues than the tigers or franklins last game.

so should we go through un beaten in my view

One way to fix this is to Beat bloody Carlton Right?

[binman 42,468]

12 hours ago, JimmyGadson said:

I know you're the eternal Demon optimist. 

But surely you've seen enough of us this year and even the last couple of games to suggest two losses from here is likely. 

If we lose 1 and win the rest that would be an amazing result. I'm expecting we lose two though. How can you not? 

We're hardly playing scintillating footy. Carlton are in unbelievable form give their injury list and the Tiges are competitive always. Swans away is also a difficult task and they can still play finals. 

We'd have to hit some ripping form to lose only 1 from here. 

Our four quarter form right now points to finishing fourth. 

I'm not sure if you are being disingenuous with this post Jimmy - and in particular the question 'surely you've seen enough of us this year and even the last couple of games to suggest two losses from here is likely'?

I say this because if you have read any of my posts in the last two months, or even in this very thread, you would know exactly where I stand on where the dees are at at this stage in the season and relative to the rest of the competition. 

And i know you know my opinions about how Goody and the high performance team structures our season, with the goal of playing our very best footy in September and timing our preparation and run to maximize the chances of doing so. It's not about winning the battles, it's about winning the war and all that. 

Hell, no-one has to believe me on that front - you just have to take the word of our senior coach who has made that exact point at least a dozen times in press conferences this season (ie EVERTHING is about peaking in September and giving the team the best possible chance of winning the flag). 

And you also know that i am very clear we structure our physical preparation for the season with the following pattern - even if it risks losing games we might otherwise win in the middle of the year:

• After a grueling preseason load, we are at our peak for the first third of the the season (as reflected in our results and game style in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year)
• We load in the middle of the season (in the words of Yze - a mini preseason) and suffer a resulting significant drop off in performance (as reflected in our results in 2021, 2022 and yet again this year)
• We close in on optimal fitness and running power in the last handful of home and away rounds with the goal of being at our absolute peak on prelim final day (as occurred in 2021 and didn't occur in 2022 - which of course doesn't mean we didn't  follow the same program - it just means, for whatever reason, it didn't work)

How do i know you know i believe all of that?

Because, IIRC, you were one of several posters who seemed to take inordinate glee in directly calling me out last season when my prediction of us following the same trajectory as 2021 didn't eventuate. 

To be clear, i am not interested, at all, in relitigating the loading argument. Believe what what you want to believe. 

I accept some (most?) posters believe loading may have some impact, but nowhere near to the extent i do (and once again to be crystal clear i don't think loading is the only factor in our in annual drop off, or that we don't have genuine weaknesses - our kicking for instance).

And i accept that some posters don't think it is factor at all, or if it is a factor, such an insignificant one that it is not really worth considering (and annoying for some that is considered).

That's all good. 

But please accept the fact i am 100% certain our training program has a very significant bearing on how our season plays out and our premiership chances - and i am not going to change that belief.

And I'm also prepared to put my neck out and make predictions that buck the safety of echoing the media narrative - unlike some posters who relentlessly bag us and give us little chance of success (not saying you are in this camp). 

But I'll play a straight bat, assume you are not being disingenuous and respond to your post in good faith by reiterating some of the points i have made many times in the last few months (including multiple times in this very thread):

• I think the Pies are a very, very good team - BUT are hugely overrated by the media and by most football fans, many of whom blindly follow the lead of the media rather than think independently (again, not saying you are in this camp) 
• The Pies have achieved nothing, and have significant vulnerabilities that will be, and have been, exposed in the heat of finals, or finals like pressure games -  as clearly evidenced in their record in such games in the last two seasons (their loss against the blues was the perfect example of how these vulnerabilities are exposed in high pressure games) 
• By the by, on the Pies, i just watched the 'The round so far' and Riley Beveridge made an interesting point - yes, the pies record of coming back in last quarters is incredible, winning 12 from 17 when trailing at 3 quarter time in their last 32 games (and i 100% agree ), but 'should a team as good as the Pies be trailing at 3 quarter time in 17 out of 32 games?'
• We are the best team in the AFL - and in my opinion, by some margin - with a formidable record over the last three seasons (unlike the Pies whose claim to fame is winning 32 of their last 42 home and away games) 
• If I was framing a betting market I would have us as favorites to win the flag (the Pies current odds of 2.75 are just ridiculous) 
• We have the best defensive system in the AFL (though the Giants, who have clearly modelled their method on ours, are a very close second) - defence win finals 
• Unlike the Pies, we have a method that is built for finals - as evidenced by the fact that much the same method has won 5 of the last 6 flags (the outlier is the 2018 Eagles flag)
• The above point is evidenced by our recent record against other top 4 sides - like the Pies we are 2-2, but unlike the Pies we have beaten two other top 4 sides (and arguably should have beaten Port) whereas the Pies have only beaten the one top 4 team (Port, who i have never rated as a top 3 team, who they only just beat) and got smashed by the Lions 
• We beat the Pies and were comfortably the better team on the day (such is the rampant Pies myopia, that seems to count for very little; IIRC you gave them the David King pass - every team has an off day i think was your comment)
• We beat the Lions two weeks back, albeit just (i rate the Lions at least the equal of the Pies - well i did before Ashcroft went down, such is his importance to them) 
• We are not quite there yet, but we are very close to being in our optimal shape 
• And consequently, as i predicted on many occasions we would, we are now playing the sort of expansive offensive football we played in the first third third of the season (because we have the run in the legs to implement the method - which is simply not the case in the middle of the year) - something the media, with their complete inability to see each home and away game as part of a bigger picture, have of course failed to point out 
• I think we will be at our peak for our round 22 game against the blues (who, like you i really rate - they play forward half, contest, high pressure finals footy. In that context it is worth noting we dominated them when we comfortably beat them in round 12)
• We are experimenting (with roles, strategies, method etc etc) way more than we did in 2021 an 2002 and won't nail down our method or final line up till the eve of the finals
• I fully expect us to return to the way we played in the first third of the season with a much better balance between defence and offence and a return to controlling tempo when required 
• We will win our final 5 games (i have calculated the odds of doing so as 5-1)
• We will win the flag 

By the by, i rate your footy nous and so I am genuinely shocked that you think the following:

• I'm expecting we lose two though. How can you not?'

Fair enough if that is what you think - we all have our opinions.

But what that particular opinion tells me is we are miles apart in our assessment of where the dees are at.

We'll know who is right in five games time. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by binman

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

10 hours ago, Radar Detector said:

Also, every team has their own what ifs. Like, I'm sure Port would be saying that about their loss to Collingwood.

Yes, up to a point. But I wouldn't have used Port as an example. How many close, arguably lucky, wins have they had this year? A bit like Collingwood last year.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

It's incredible how the narrative's changed over the last couple of weeks. I decided not to post anything this week until after the Richmond game. i was very unhappy about Collingwood's performance on Friday night which pretty much gifted Carlton 4 points and gave Carlton some (small) chance of getting ahead of us. Top 4 is now guaranteed for Melbourne because 2 losses will still see us in 4th. Surely a big chance at Top 2 now 😀

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

Would be sitting very well if we had just one more win under our belt, in 2nd spot. For us to win the flag we must win our qualifying final to not play that extra game

[dino rover 710]

On 7/10/2023 at 12:00 PM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Our three major threats for top 4 are Essendon, Bulldogs and Geelong.

It was a while ago

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

7 hours ago, binman said:

By the by, on the Pies, i just watched the 'The round so far' and Riley Beveridge made an interesting point - yes, the pies record of coming back in last quarters is incredible, winning 12 from 17 when trailing at 3 quarter time in their last 32 games (and i 100% agree ), but 'should a team as good as the Pies be trailing at 3 quarter time in 17 out of 32 games?

If I was framing a betting market I would have us as favorites to win the flag (the Pies current odds of 2.75 are just ridiculous) 

It's interesting that Riley Beveridge made that point. Of course it took a decent loss where Colingwood didn't make a comeback for that to happen. Multiple Demionlanders have been saying the same thing for weeks. Still, it's nice to see the media experts coming up with something other than groupthink.

The reason why Melbourne's Premiership Odds have been so high is because technically we could have missed the Top 4 and it's virtually impossible to win from there. I note on Sportsbet we're now in to $5 which reflects the fact that Top 4 is virtually guaranteed. Also of course Geelong have blown out from $8 2 weeks ago to $18 after the Freo loss. I agree with you that Collingwood's odds of $2.75 are ridiculously short. Having said that there's now a significant chance that they'll be playing Port or Brisbane in a Qualifying which will help their cause 🙁.  

[Adam The God 30,026]

Fair few Demonlanders (and media pundits) with egg on their face here. We had our usual mid season slump (circa 2021-2023), where we change our ball movement to protect the back 7 (which undermines scoring power), our DE drops during this period due to fatigue exacerbated by additional training loads, our accuracy plummets, and reactionaries call this a lack of forward connection. 

We've now won 4 on the trot; a game off 2nd; the double chance within reach; our accuracy has returned; our ball movement has become even more attacking than Act One of our season (credit @binman);  we're doing all this without Clarry and Fritta; and we're kicking ridiculous scores like 20.10.130 against teams with everything to play for. 

Meanwhile, media and Demonland darlings Collingwood (the arousal specialists) have dropped a game in exactly the same way they've been beaten in other bigger games over the last 12 months (deny them space in the corridor and deny overlap run, and they're gone if you beat them in CP and clearance), 2nd place Port have fallen in a hole and Brisbane remain flakey.

And speaking of gooses (sic geese), remind me what @picket fence said about Petty in the lead up to this week...?

[Engorged Onion 10,199]

8 minutes ago, A F said:

Fair few Demonlanders (and media pundits) with egg on their face here. We had our usual mid season slump (circa 2021-2023), where we change our ball movement to protect the back 7 (which undermines scoring power), our DE drops during this period due to fatigue exacerbated by additional training loads, our accuracy plummets, and reactionaries call this a lack of forward connection. 

We've now won 4 on the trot; a game off 2nd; the double chance within reach; our accuracy has returned; our ball movement has become even more attacking than Act One of our season (credit @binman);  we're doing all this without Clarry and Fritta; and we're kicking ridiculous scores like 20.10.130 against teams with everything to play for. 

Meanwhile, media and Demonland darlings Collingwood (the arousal specialists) have dropped a game in exactly the same way they've been beaten in other bigger games over the last 12 months (deny them space in the corridor and deny overlap run, and they're gone if you beat them in CP and clearance), 2nd place Port have fallen in a hole and Brisbane remain flakey.

And speaking of gooses (sic geese), remind me what @picket fence said about Petty in the lead up to this week...?

[Jaded No More 68,835]

17 minutes ago, A F said:

Fair few Demonlanders (and media pundits) with egg on their face here. We had our usual mid season slump (circa 2021-2023), where we change our ball movement to protect the back 7 (which undermines scoring power), our DE drops during this period due to fatigue exacerbated by additional training loads, our accuracy plummets, and reactionaries call this a lack of forward connection. 

We've now won 4 on the trot; a game off 2nd; the double chance within reach; our accuracy has returned; our ball movement has become even more attacking than Act One of our season (credit @binman);  we're doing all this without Clarry and Fritta; and we're kicking ridiculous scores like 20.10.130 against teams with everything to play for. 

Meanwhile, media and Demonland darlings Collingwood (the arousal specialists) have dropped a game in exactly the same way they've been beaten in other bigger games over the last 12 months (deny them space in the corridor and deny overlap run, and they're gone if you beat them in CP and clearance), 2nd place Port have fallen in a hole and Brisbane remain flakey.

And speaking of gooses (sic geese), remind me what @picket fence said about Petty in the lead up to this week...?

[brendan 3,434]

Just watched 1st crack Montagna has us as his favourites now and thinks we are timing our run perfect, kingy still has the Collingwood blinkers on even after some stats were shown where pies are not travelling that well 

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

If we win the next 4 games. We will  get the 2nd spot. 

Roos and Hawks are all but a certainty. Blues will be our biggest test, which you want going into finals to keep you finely tuned and Swans should be beatable even if it is Buddy’s last game, which he has probably already played tbh.

Win the next 4 and our chances will be undeniable , even to the biggest of skeptics. 

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Gawndy the Great

[Little Goffy 14,398]

15 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Happy to just keep flying under the radar. 

I fear they may have spotted us.

[titan_uranus 24,963]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Fair few Demonlanders (and media pundits) with egg on their face here. We had our usual mid season slump (circa 2021-2023), where we change our ball movement to protect the back 7 (which undermines scoring power), our DE drops during this period due to fatigue exacerbated by additional training loads, our accuracy plummets, and reactionaries call this a lack of forward connection. 

We've now won 4 on the trot; a game off 2nd; the double chance within reach; our accuracy has returned; our ball movement has become even more attacking than Act One of our season (credit @binman);  we're doing all this without Clarry and Fritta; and we're kicking ridiculous scores like 20.10.130 against teams with everything to play for. 

Meanwhile, media and Demonland darlings Collingwood (the arousal specialists) have dropped a game in exactly the same way they've been beaten in other bigger games over the last 12 months (deny them space in the corridor and deny overlap run, and they're gone if you beat them in CP and clearance), 2nd place Port have fallen in a hole and Brisbane remain flakey.

And speaking of gooses (sic geese), remind me what @picket fence said about Petty in the lead up to this week...?

This would be the most positive way to describe our current situation.

For the record, I love where we sit right now. We can finish 2nd, and draw a home QF against an interstate side, and we are still going to integrate a top 5 league player into the side plus, hopefully, our best forward.

Still, it's not very far off this to note that we were a kick off losing to both Brisbane and Adelaide, conceded 90+ points for three straight weeks, and have conceded goals from opposition inside 50s at a rate well above standard MFC Goodwin. Part of that will be, I'm sure, that we've modified how we set up to change the balance of offence-defence.

But this post reads like it was all so obvious that everyone except you and binman have been fools. I don't think that's right, or fair.

[Jaded No More 68,835]

50 minutes ago, brendan said:

Just watched 1st crack Montagna has us as his favourites now and thinks we are timing our run perfect, kingy still has the Collingwood blinkers on even after some stats were shown where pies are not travelling that well 

But the real question is, does David King still think Freo will take our spot in the top 4? 🙄

The day King rates us, is the day we are doomed. 

[rpfc 28,220]

1 hour ago, A F said:

Fair few Demonlanders (and media pundits) with egg on their face here. We had our usual mid season slump (circa 2021-2023), where we change our ball movement to protect the back 7 (which undermines scoring power), our DE drops during this period due to fatigue exacerbated by additional training loads, our accuracy plummets, and reactionaries call this a lack of forward connection. 

We've now won 4 on the trot; a game off 2nd; the double chance within reach; our accuracy has returned; our ball movement has become even more attacking than Act One of our season (credit @binman);  we're doing all this without Clarry and Fritta; and we're kicking ridiculous scores like 20.10.130 against teams with everything to play for. 

Meanwhile, media and Demonland darlings Collingwood (the arousal specialists) have dropped a game in exactly the same way they've been beaten in other bigger games over the last 12 months (deny them space in the corridor and deny overlap run, and they're gone if you beat them in CP and clearance), 2nd place Port have fallen in a hole and Brisbane remain flakey.

And speaking of gooses (sic geese), remind me what @picket fence said about Petty in the lead up to this week...?

I am going to give Goodwin the credit here of making some brave calls on Grundy, going back to The Petty Experiment, moving CP5 forward with no Oliver Backstop, putting faith in Melksham, and managing JVR so well this year (dropping and promoting).

These are a small individual things that in the aggregate look to have a huge impact. Nothing this year as stark as the ‘ball movement protection’ that we had in 2022 but still we had a funk and we are out of it with 2 of our top 7 players to return.

 

In such an even year, we were always a show - now we are a huge chance IF we can grab 2nd. We can win from anywhere of course, but that week off and home finals remove variables (how much better is Lachie Neale at the Gabba? How do we go with the umps in SA against one of their teams?).

 

But don’t let anyone tell you this was inevitable - this is good coaching and brave decision making and strong leadership. 

[titan_uranus 24,963]

IMO, if we can go 4-0 from here 2nd is more likely than not. I can see Brisbane losing to Collingwood so we'd pass them, but we might pass them even if they also go 4-0 given the percentage gap is small now. And I doubt Port goes 4-0 from here, given they have Geelong and GWS in their next fortnight.

3-1 from here can allow 2nd but is less likely (Brisbane lose to Collingwood and we make the percentage, Port lose twice).

2-2 from here almost certainly locks in 4th - would require Port to go 1-3 and/or Brisbane to go 2-2 or worse to go up, and to go down from 4th GWS or St Kilda would have to go 4-0 and make up 20% on us. Nearly a mathematical certainty but not quite.

1-3 can still make top 4 but would be tough. Would miss if St Kilda or GWS go 4-0, or 3-1 but catch the 20%, or if Carlton go 4-0.

[Ouch! 2,258]

8 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

1-3 can still make top 4 but would be tough. Would miss if St Kilda or GWS go 4-0, or 3-1 but catch the 20%, or if Carlton go 4-0.

Haha... sorry is that a typo with St Kilda? sure they played ok today against the Hawks, but they are more likely to go 0-4 than 4-0.  But GWS are in form, they could possibly go 4-0, but more realisitically 3-1 or 2-2

[titan_uranus 24,963]

Just now, Ouch! said:

Haha... sorry is that a typo with St Kilda? sure they played ok today against the Hawks, but they are more likely to go 0-4 than 4-0.  But GWS are in form, they could possibly go 4-0, but more realisitically 3-1 or 2-2

I didn't say it would happen, only that it's what would be required to happen.

On current form St Kilda will do well to go 2-2 from here, which might be enough for finals but would be close. 

[YesitwasaWin4theAges 6,674]

2 hours ago, A F said:

Fair few Demonlanders (and media pundits) with egg on their face here. We had our usual mid season slump (circa 2021-2023), where we change our ball movement to protect the back 7 (which undermines scoring power), our DE drops during this period due to fatigue exacerbated by additional training loads, our accuracy plummets, and reactionaries call this a lack of forward connection. 

We've now won 4 on the trot; a game off 2nd; the double chance within reach; our accuracy has returned; our ball movement has become even more attacking than Act One of our season (credit @binman);  we're doing all this without Clarry and Fritta; and we're kicking ridiculous scores like 20.10.130 against teams with everything to play for. 

Meanwhile, media and Demonland darlings Collingwood (the arousal specialists) have dropped a game in exactly the same way they've been beaten in other bigger games over the last 12 months (deny them space in the corridor and deny overlap run, and they're gone if you beat them in CP and clearance), 2nd place Port have fallen in a hole and Brisbane remain flakey.

And speaking of gooses (sic geese), remind me what @picket fence said about Petty in the lead up to this week...?

We know our truth.