The Run Home

[Demon17 4,638]

9 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Nope, not yet. If the Dogs beat WC and then Geelong, a Sydney loss to us will put them at risk of being passed by GWS who play after us. 

Sydney may be locked in by the time of our game if the Dogs have already lost to Geelong (or WC tomorrow…lol). But even if so, they will likely be playing for a home final.

Sorry, you're right.  Its down to Cats beating Dogs before our game then swans have nothing to play for. Tricky for them, and us if we lose today.

4 things have to happen for saints to miss so I suspect they are in. And deservedly so after last nights  efforts.

The more melb -based team the better inside the 8

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

I am much-relieved after today's win over Hawthorn. For Melbourne to finish Top 2 it will now take a miracle but in the remote case of that being a possibiity we will know before our game against the Swans. If we'd lost today and then lose next week against the Swans, Carlton playing the last game would know that they were playing for a Top 4 position. It might now be a case where the last match of the Season is a dead rubber.

[titan_uranus 22,751]

1 minute ago, Sydney_Demon said:

I am much-relieved after today's win over Hawthorn. For Melbourne to finish Top 2 it will now take a miracle but in the remote case of that being a possibiity we will know before our game against the Swans. If we'd lost today and then lose next week against the Swans, Carlton playing the last game would know that they were playing for a Top 4 position. It might now be a case where the last match of the Season is a dead rubber.

If the Dogs lose to Geelong, GWS will have qualified without needing to play.

But there may still be something riding on the game - it's possible (but unlikely) Carlton will need to win for a home final (requires St Kilda to win and Sydney to beat us by enough to close the 4.5% gap). It's also possible that GWS will be playing for a home final (Sydney and St Kilda lose, then GWS needs to make up 3.3% on St Kilda). But mainly it will be for positioning, whether it's Carlton v GWS or Carlton v Sydney in the EFs.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 8/19/2023 at 9:35 PM, Macca said:

Interesting stat from the past

Under the old final 4 system (which ran from 1931 until 1971) no team that finished 3rd ever won the premiership

Yet at least a couple of teams won the flag under that system from 4th position

And North won their first 2 premierships from 3rd place under the final 5 system (which came into operation in 1972)

Strange that, and also that only 4 of 41 have come from 4th. From 1st 23, 2nd 14, 3rd 0, 4th 4. I assume back then that nearly all these games were played at the MCG, so little home ground advantage (except for Melbourne, Richmond from 1965) so surprising bias in results towards the Top 2. It also negates the argument that is commonly rolled out about the top teams being disadvantaged by not playing enough in Finals period (e.g. Melbourne 2021), as the winning 2nd semi-finalists back then would only have played once in 4 weeks (Week 2). I couln't tell you though which teams won after coming through the Prelim and which after coming direct from the 2nd Semi.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

8 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If the Dogs lose to Geelong, GWS will have qualified without needing to play.

But there may still be something riding on the game - it's possible (but unlikely) Carlton will need to win for a home final (requires St Kilda to win and Sydney to beat us by enough to close the 4.5% gap). It's also possible that GWS will be playing for a home final (Sydney and St Kilda lose, then GWS needs to make up 3.3% on St Kilda). But mainly it will be for positioning, whether it's Carlton v GWS or Carlton v Sydney in the EFs.

Even more reason that we needed to win today. We would have needed GWS to be fully-motivated if they were playing to keep Carlton from finishing Top 4. I cannot see GWS making up the percentage gap to St Kilda although it's possible if St Kilda have a bad loss to Brisbane. Even less likely that the Swans will make up the gap to Carlton (which is the equivalent of maybe 90 points). Sydney will be extremely motivated, even if St Kilda have an unlikely win, just to stay ahead of GWS.

[Macca 16,173]

2 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Strange that, and also that only 4 of 41 have come from 4th. From 1st 23, 2nd 14, 3rd 0, 4th 4. I assume back then that nearly all these games were played at the MCG, so little home ground advantage (except for Melbourne, Richmond from 1965) so surprising bias in results towards the Top 2. It also negates the argument that is commonly rolled out about the top teams being disadvantaged by not playing enough in Finals period (e.g. Melbourne 2021), as the winning 2nd semi-finalists back then would only have played once in 4 weeks (Week 2). I couln't tell you though which teams won after coming through the Prelim and which after coming direct from the 2nd Semi.

Also, in that final 4 system, the winner of the first semi got a 2 week break before playing the loser of the 2nd semi (who only got a 1 week break in comparison)

The overall results indicate that winning the 2nd semi was a big advantage

And with the final 8, the QF has over time become an extremely important game to win

In the modern game, fresh legs, rest and recovery is a big deal in our sport but perhaps it always has been

Just history repeating itself, SD?

[John Demonic 4,875]

Wonder if Collingwood will tank themselves into 2nd to play Port Adelaide at the G. And give us the Lions at the GABBA. Flirting with form withstanding, it's a pretty solid move to avoid us and have the 'easiest' of the top 4 fixturing permutations

Edited August 20, 2023 by John Demonic

[Demon Dynasty 15,960]

3 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Wonder if Collingwood will tank themselves into 2nd to play Port Adelaide at the G. And give us the Lions at the GABBA. Flirting with form withstanding, it's a pretty solid move to avoid us and have the 'easiest' of the top 4 fixturing permutations

The filth losing to the horrid Peptides would surely raise a few eyebrows given their 20 goal pantsing on Sat.

Ideally we need the Tigers to beat Port and the Sainters to best the Lions this week to secure a first final at the G regardless of our result.

Unlikely the Tigers win but they have a VG record on the road and will have nothing to lose.

The Pies play first up so they won't know for certain where the others will be placed to know who they're playing at the G.

Whereas by the time our game starts we will know all the connotations of what a win or a loss means in terms of first up home final or not.

Also IF...

Pies lose, Port lose (both unlikely but you never know), we win & the Lions win then we would still end up playing the Pies at the G.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Demon Dynasty

[rpfc 27,637]

If Pies are to tank, it would have to be heavy Soviet-era tank; Essendon are that bad.

[KLV 1,684]

Haven’t read earlier posts so probably repeating, but… we should be reasonably sure of getting the pies in the first week of finals 

[Jaded No More 59,109]

4 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Wonder if Collingwood will tank themselves into 2nd to play Port Adelaide at the G. And give us the Lions at the GABBA. Flirting with form withstanding, it's a pretty solid move to avoid us and have the 'easiest' of the top 4 fixturing permutations

As if they’ll lose to Essendon. No chance. 

[layzie 29,758]

So Collingwood skata'd the bed amd now we need Richmond to beat Port and St Kilda to beat Brisbane to get top 2. Obviously us to win as well.

Let the chips fall as they may, we'll play anyone anytime.

[John Demonic 4,875]

If I'm a Pies supporter, I want Melbourne in a prelim after they've lost at the GABBA and had a bruising extra time win over Carlton. I want Brisbane on the MCG in a GF, the only venue where they haven't beaten the Pies and where they're a big chance to [censored] their bed. And so I want a QF 2v3 Port matchup on the G, where they trounced them, as well as beating them on their home deck a few weeks ago just for good measure. I'm going to automatically assume Lions/Port win their r24 games.

Edit: And if Melb d Brisbane at the GABBA, then as a Pies supporter you're happy to play Lions in a prelim, just to have the easiest path to get to the GF to take on the Dees.

I know a club won't intentionally go out to lose, but that's the ideal path for the Pies. It serves them better to rest half the team and lose in a 'practice type' match to Essendon. There might be a bunch more 'deadrubbers' this weekend, one of which might be our game v Sydney, if they already have a home final, and we already know who we are playing in the QF. You can't say there won't be an element of self-preservation and softness with these types of fixtures, where the result doesn't matter at all. Like the result: Freo d WB r23 2016

Edited August 20, 2023 by John Demonic

[beelzebub 22,324]

5 hours ago, John Demonic said:

Wonder if Collingwood will tank themselves into 2nd to play Port Adelaide at the G. And give us the Lions at the GABBA. Flirting with form withstanding, it's a pretty solid move to avoid us and have the 'easiest' of the top 4 fixturing permutations

The Filth will want a win and the minor premiership......coz they're not getting the real one 😉

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,981]

Do the Pies really want to flirt with form? At the end of the day you’re going to have to play 3 games at a minimum regardless.

[titan_uranus 22,751]

Collingwood’s already lost 3 of their last 4. Can’t recall a premier losing 4 of their last 5 H&A games. 

They’ll be aiming to blow Essendon apart IMO. Like us, I imagine they will accept that the ladder takes care of itself. 

[YearOfTheDees 3,118]

 

 

 

 

[Demonland 66,452]

4. MELBOURNE (15-7, 124.8%)

Round 24 game: Sydney Swans at the SCG, Sunday 3:20pm

Win: Finish 2nd if Brisbane (vs St Kilda) and Port Adelaide (vs Richmond) both lose, 3rd if one loses, 4th if both win

Lose: Finish 4th

Analysis: They’ve at least locked up a top-four spot after avoiding the Hawthorn banana peel some of their top-eight rivals couldn’t, and by the time the Demons play in Round 24, they may already be locked into fourth spot. That in fact appears to be the most likely scenario, and they’re probably getting an MCG qualifying final against the Magpies in that case. If the Lions or Power slip up however, there’s a chance to move a bit higher up. Both would have to lose for Melbourne to host a qualifying final, which would be against Brisbane.

Prediction: Finish 4th, ‘away’ to Collingwood in a qualifying final

[beelzebub 22,324]

3 minutes ago, Bombay Airconditioning said:

Do the Pies really want to flirt with form? At the end of the day you’re going to have to play 3 games at a minimum regardless.

I would doubt it....playing that cute is playing with fire...  would they really want to wobble into QF1 against us with that form ? They're already but about one more injury away from a straight sets exit...adding "doubt" from another loss won't be on their agenda ..imo

[Bombay Airconditioning 5,981]

Tigers could beat Port, Port IMO are overrated and it’s a send off for a few Tigers. 
 

Saints over Lions would be massive, can’t see it happening but stranger things have happened.

[BDA 20,623]

Bombers will get the blowtorch this week (along with the dogs). They will have to put up a fight otherwise the natives will burn down the hangar. They’ll make the pies earn the win and you never know. 

[bandicoot 1,395]

51 minutes ago, John Demonic said:

If I'm a Pies supporter, I want Melbourne in a prelim after they've lost at the GABBA and had a bruising extra time win over Carlton. I want Brisbane on the MCG in a GF, the only venue where they haven't beaten the Pies and where they're a big chance to [censored] their bed. And so I want a QF 2v3 Port matchup on the G, where they trounced them, as well as beating them on their home deck a few weeks ago just for good measure. I'm going to automatically assume Lions/Port win their r24 games.

Edit: And if Melb d Brisbane at the GABBA, then as a Pies supporter you're happy to play Lions in a prelim, just to have the easiest path to get to the GF to take on the Dees.

I know a club won't intentionally go out to lose, but that's the ideal path for the Pies. It serves them better to rest half the team and lose in a 'practice type' match to Essendon. There might be a bunch more 'deadrubbers' this weekend, one of which might be our game v Sydney, if they already have a home final, and we already know who we are playing in the QF. You can't say there won't be an element of self-preservation and softness with these types of fixtures, where the result doesn't matter at all. Like the result: Freo d WB r23 2016

If pies were to rest half their side then it will mean that these players would have had a 3 week break. Good luck not coming back rusty after such a long layoff. No chance of pies resting players. 

[YearOfTheDees 3,118]

AFL really need the Giants to win this weekend if only to afford the Crows going off all summer long. Will The Blues help out and repay the AFL for all the help this year. That's just tongue in cheek but they might need covid back to stop them storming the border on the way to AFL house. 

[IRW 1,270]

The run home's pretty simple 

Positions don't really matter much in a season of team equality and upsets; 

We could mount a case for any two reaching  the G/F, but  more than ever the team fielding closest to best 22 or carrying  fewer  injuries will win.

In Melbourne's case of course the umpires are likely to be the difference .

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,017]

12 hours ago, Macca said:

Also, in that final 4 system, the winner of the first semi got a 2 week break before playing the loser of the 2nd semi (who only got a 1 week break in comparison)

The overall results indicate that winning the 2nd semi was a big advantage

And with the final 8, the QF has over time become an extremely important game to win

In the modern game, fresh legs, rest and recovery is a big deal in our sport but perhaps it always has been

Just history repeating itself, SD?

Rest and probability Macca.

One more game = one more chance of loss.

Going forward the 5-8 teams could taste success simply because the AFL have managed somehow to level the competition.

On the latter point I'm not sure I'm a fan of levelling to the degree we now see it. Makes for a long season with finals being an add on determined by luck and injury (vide our forward line). Somewhat irrelevant though as it keeps the TV and the AFL happy.