The Run Home

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 3,914]

The 'Run Home' now being to Flag#14, am I right in understanding that, when(!) we win on Thursday, and then when(!) Port lose to Brisbane but then beat the winner of StK v GWS, our Preliminary Final would be in Adelaide, as Port were the higher-ranked H&A team?

[loges 6,110]

1 hour ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

The 'Run Home' now being to Flag#14, am I right in understanding that, when(!) we win on Thursday, and then when(!) Port lose to Brisbane but then beat the winner of StK v GWS, our Preliminary Final would be in Adelaide, as Port were the higher-ranked H&A team?

No we win we get home  prelim

[rpfc 27,531]

7 hours ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

The 'Run Home' now being to Flag#14, am I right in understanding that, when(!) we win on Thursday, and then when(!) Port lose to Brisbane but then beat the winner of StK v GWS, our Preliminary Final would be in Adelaide, as Port were the higher-ranked H&A team?

Either you’re confused or I am confused about your confusion.

Either way it’s making me angry

[layzie 29,084]

8 hours ago, Timothy Reddan-A'Blew said:

The 'Run Home' now being to Flag#14, am I right in understanding that, when(!) we win on Thursday, and then when(!) Port lose to Brisbane but then beat the winner of StK v GWS, our Preliminary Final would be in Adelaide, as Port were the higher-ranked H&A team?

I think winner of Qualifying finals hosts. 

Citation needed. 

Edited August 31, 2023 by layzie

[Timothy Reddan-A'Blew 3,914]

7 hours ago, loges said:

No we win we get home  prelim

Phew!

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

Either you’re confused or I am confused about your confusion.

Either way it’s making me angry

Sorry!

35 minutes ago, layzie said:

I think winner of Qualifying finals hosts. 

Citation needed. 

That'd help!

[Dr. Gonzo 22,522]

If you win the qualifying final you get a home prelim. The only way Port or Brisbane get a home prelim is to win the Qualifying final, the loser gets a home semifinal then away in the Prelim if they win the semi.

[old55 21,372]

Damien Barrett:

"IF

...ever there was a player poised to take over a finals series on sheer willpower 

THEN ...

Zak Butters. Cannot wait to see him run out onto the Gabba on Saturday week. Eyes will be rolling in that controlled way. Old-school sporting killer instinct. Compelling to watch. "

Has he heard about Christian Petracca?  Look out world!

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,263]

3 minutes ago, old55 said:

Damien Barrett:

"IF

...ever there was a player poised to take over a finals series on sheer willpower 

THEN ...

Zak Butters. Cannot wait to see him run out onto the Gabba on Saturday week. Eyes will be rolling in that controlled way. Old-school sporting killer instinct. Compelling to watch. "

Has he heard about Christian Petracca?  Look out world!

If Butters plays anything like he did against us round 10, then I'd have to agree with Barrett.

Aside from Ablett kicking 10 against us in the mid 90's, I've never seen an opposition player have such a direct influence on a game of football than Butters did against us. he was even nailing 55 metre set shots in driving rain.

Also agree with your comment about Petracca's potential to rip September apart.

[old55 21,372]

2 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

If Butters plays anything like he did against us round 10, then I'd have to agree with Barrett.

Aside from Ablett kicking 10 against us in the mid 90's, I've never seen an opposition player have such a direct influence on a game of football than Butters did against us. he was even nailing 55 metre set shots in driving rain.

Also agree with your comment about Petracca's potential to rip September apart.

Yes Butters was tremendous that night.  He's definitely a great player. But I just think Petracca is primed to explode.

[Hellaintabadplacetobe 4,092]

2 hours ago, old55 said:

Damien Barrett:

"IF

...ever there was a player poised to take over a finals series on sheer willpower 

THEN ...

Zak Butters. Cannot wait to see him run out onto the Gabba on Saturday week. Eyes will be rolling in that controlled way. Old-school sporting killer instinct. Compelling to watch. "

Has he heard about Christian Petracca?  Look out world!

I raise you Jack Viney ....

[Stu 875]

26 minutes ago, Hellaintabadplacetobe said:

I raise you Jack Viney ....

I still vividly remember after one particular play the 7 commentators saying how Jack was “built for finals” after he caused carnage against the Hawks in the 2018 semi final. It’s still true in 2023. 

[Lucifers Hero 37,173]

Anyone else prepared to put a stake in the ground for the finals series?

My predictions:

QF and EF Finals. Week 1.

• QF 1: Collingwood vs Melbourne:  Dees will win due to greater endurance, better defence and are not a ‘one trick pony’
• QF 2: Brisbane vs Port Adelaide:  Brisbane to win.  Home ground advantage and Port’s defence is sus.
• EF 1: Carlton vs Sydney:  Sydney to win.  Carlton played lazy football in round 24.  Too much hubris and seemed satisfied to make finals.  Allowed a potential finals threat run all over them.
• EF 2: St Kilda vs GWS:  GWS to win.  Looks like a team on a mission.  Will miss Toby Bedford.  Have a first class midfield and multiple avenues to goal.

Would love to see Carlton eliminated and shut up the sheep like commentators!!

Semi -Finals.  Week 2:

• Port Adelaide vs Sydney:  A 50/50 game.  Tipping Port, just!  So much talent and more experience.
• Collingwood vs GWS:  GWS capable of upset.  And wouldn’t that be sweet!!!  But alas Pies will probably get it done.

Preliminary Finals.  Week 3:

• Melbourne vs Port Adelaide.  A demon win.  Onour turf this time!!
• Lions vs Collingwood:  Lions (because I'm not sure we can beat Coll 3 times in a row).

Grand Final:

• Demons vs Lions:  Demons!! 🏆 + 13

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:46 AM, old55 said:

Damien Barrett:

"IF

...ever there was a player poised to take over a finals series on sheer willpower 

THEN ...

Zak Butters. Cannot wait to see him run out onto the Gabba on Saturday week. Eyes will be rolling in that controlled way. Old-school sporting killer instinct. Compelling to watch. "

Has he heard about Christian Petracca?  Look out world!

Well, if iit's come from Damien Barrett you can safely ignore it. The guy's a total waste of space.

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

11 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Anyone else prepared to put a stake in the ground for the finals series?

My predictions:

QF and EF Finals. Week 1.

• QF 1: Collingwood vs Melbourne:  Dees will win due to greater endurance, better defence and are not a ‘one trick pony’
• QF 2: Brisbane vs Port Adelaide:  Brisbane to win.  Home ground advantage and Port’s defence is sus.
• EF 1: Carlton vs Sydney:  Sydney to win.  Carlton played lazy football in round 24.  Too much hubris and seemed satisfied to make finals.  Allowed a potential finals threat run all over them.
• EF 2: St Kilda vs GWS:  GWS to win.  Looks like a team on a mission.  Will miss Toby Bedford.  Have a first class midfield and multiple avenues to goal.

Would love to see Carlton eliminated and shut up the sheep like commentators!!

Semi -Finals.  Week 2:

• Port Adelaide vs Sydney:  A 50/50 game.  Tipping Port, just!  So much talent and more experience.
• Collingwood vs GWS:  GWS capable of upset.  And wouldn’t that be sweet!!!  But alas Pies will probably get it done.

Preliminary Finals.  Week 3:

• Melbourne vs Port Adelaide.  A demon win.  Onour turf this time!!
• Lions vs Collingwood:  Lions (because I'm not sure we can beat Coll 3 times in a row).

Grand Final:

• Demons vs Lions:  Demons!! 🏆 + 13

Love your final prediction particularly. I like it that you've picked Sydney against Carlton. The general concensus amongst the 'experts' seems to be Carlton but as usual no in-depth analysis. The Swans are a Finals Team (look at last year's Qualifying Final) and Papley will be back. I was at last week's game and thought the Swans were phenomenal which is why it was such a great win by Melbourne.

[Lucifers Hero 37,173]

12 minutes ago, Sydney_Demon said:

Love your final prediction particularly. I like it that you've picked Sydney against Carlton. The general concensus amongst the 'experts' seems to be Carlton but as usual no in-depth analysis. The Swans are a Finals Team (look at last year's Qualifying Final) and Papley will be back. I was at last week's game and thought the Swans were phenomenal which is why it was such a great win by Melbourne.

The round 24 games of Dees vs Swans and Blues vs Giants says so much. 

Dees played a dead rubber vs a team giving their all to get a Home final.  We played it to the death giving it our all and our endurance won the day. 

Carlton played a dead rubber vs a team fighting to get into the 8.  They rolled over.   If they won they would be playing WBD in this final -  a much better chance of a win imv.

The so called 'experts' in the media are empty headed fools hooked on 'click bait'.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[Lucifers Hero 37,173]

.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[JTR 2,660]

34 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Anyone else prepared to put a stake in the ground for the finals series?

My predictions:

QF and EF Finals. Week 1.

• QF 1: Collingwood vs Melbourne:  Dees will win due to greater endurance, better defence and are not a ‘one trick pony’
• QF 2: Brisbane vs Port Adelaide:  Brisbane to win.  Home ground advantage and Port’s defence is sus.
• EF 1: Carlton vs Sydney:  Sydney to win.  Carlton played lazy football in round 24.  Too much hubris and seemed satisfied to make finals.  Allowed a potential finals threat run all over them.
• EF 2: St Kilda vs GWS:  GWS to win.  Looks like a team on a mission.  Will miss Toby Bedford.  Have a first class midfield and multiple avenues to goal.

Would love to see Carlton eliminated and shut up the sheep like commentators!!

Semi -Finals.  Week 2:

• Port Adelaide vs Sydney:  A 50/50 game.  Tipping Port, just!  So much talent and more experience.
• Collingwood vs GWS:  GWS capable of upset.  And wouldn’t that be sweet!!!  But alas Pies will probably get it done.

Preliminary Finals.  Week 3:

• Melbourne vs Port Adelaide.  A demon win.  Onour turf this time!!
• Lions vs Collingwood:  Lions (because I'm not sure we can beat Coll 3 times in a row).

Grand Final:

• Demons vs Lions:  Demons!! 🏆 + 13

Loser of QF1 plays winner of EF1 and loser of QF2 players winner of EF2.

So with above results, semis would be Collingwood at home to Sydney and Port at home to GWS.

🙂

[Lucifers Hero 37,173]

1 minute ago, JTR said:

Loser of QF1 plays winner of EF1 and loser of QF2 players winner of EF2.

So with above results, semis would be Collingwood at home to Sydney and Port at home to GWS.

🙂

Thanks for that.

I will redo it but the comments and results probably won't change.

[Lucifers Hero 37,173]

45 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Semi -Finals.  Week 2:

 

• Port Adelaide vs Sydney:  A 50/50 game.  Tipping Port, just!  So much talent and more experience.
• Collingwood vs GWS:  GWS capable of upset.  And wouldn’t that be sweet!!!  But alas Pies will probably get it done.

Making these changes to the Semi-finals:

Semi -Finals.  Week 2:

• Port Adelaide vs GWS:  GWS capable of upset. A 50/50 game Tipping Port, just! 
• Collingwood vs Sydney:  Another 50/50 game.  And wouldn’t it be sweet if Syndey won!!!  But alas Pies will probably get it done.

Thanks to @JTR for highlighting I had these finals a-about. 

My subsequent predictions don't change

Edited September 5, 2023 by Lucifers Hero

[old55 21,372]

Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, GWS

Collingwood, Port

Melbourne, Brisbane

Melbourne

[Lucifers Hero 37,173]

2 minutes ago, old55 said:

Melbourne, Brisbane, Carlton, GWS

Collingwood, Port

Melbourne, Brisbane

Melbourne

It seems the only game we differ on is Carlton vs Sydney winning.

Either way love the way it plays out!!

[JTR 2,660]

10 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Thanks for that.

I will redo it but the comments and results probably won't change.

No probs!  And yes I noticed that despite the flip of semi opponents, the prelims onwards were no different  👍

As an aside, I'm sure most are already aware of it, but for those who aren't, this is a handy little tool to play around with the various finals scenarios 

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/ 

(its also very useful during regular season too where you can predict all H&A games/margins, but it's now in finals mode)

 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,263]

Assuming we make it to a prelim (fingers crossed), we'll be definitely playing on the Saturday IMO.

If the Pies beat us, they'll obviously get the Friday night prelim being the #1 seed. We'd travel to Brisbane or Port to play a likely Saturday twilight.

If we beat the Pies, Brisbane or Port will host the Friday night prelim as they're both higher seeds than us. We'd play a Saturday late arvo or twilight game at the G.

The higher ranked team always hosts the Friday night prelim.

 

[old55 21,372]

15 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

It seems the only game we differ on is Carlton vs Sydney winning.

Either way love the way it plays out!!

I haven't been impressed with Sydney's last two 4th quarter efforts 0.4 to 8.12 in total.  Carlton will run over them if they're anywhere near close at 3qtr time.

St.Kilda should be playing GWS at Marvel and would win there, but not at the MCG.

Brisbane won't lose at the Gabba, even in the PF against Collingwood who will be beaten up by consecutive games against Melbourne and Carlton.

We need to win the QF or otherwise it will be us in that boat.

[Jaded No More 58,304]

5 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Anyone else prepared to put a stake in the ground for the finals series?

My predictions:

QF and EF Finals. Week 1.

• QF 1: Collingwood vs Melbourne:  Dees will win due to greater endurance, better defence and are not a ‘one trick pony’
• QF 2: Brisbane vs Port Adelaide:  Brisbane to win.  Home ground advantage and Port’s defence is sus.
• EF 1: Carlton vs Sydney:  Sydney to win.  Carlton played lazy football in round 24.  Too much hubris and seemed satisfied to make finals.  Allowed a potential finals threat run all over them.
• EF 2: St Kilda vs GWS:  GWS to win.  Looks like a team on a mission.  Will miss Toby Bedford.  Have a first class midfield and multiple avenues to goal.

Would love to see Carlton eliminated and shut up the sheep like commentators!!

Semi -Finals.  Week 2:

• Port Adelaide vs Sydney:  A 50/50 game.  Tipping Port, just!  So much talent and more experience.
• Collingwood vs GWS:  GWS capable of upset.  And wouldn’t that be sweet!!!  But alas Pies will probably get it done.

Preliminary Finals.  Week 3:

• Melbourne vs Port Adelaide.  A demon win.  Onour turf this time!!
• Lions vs Collingwood:  Lions (because I'm not sure we can beat Coll 3 times in a row).

Grand Final:

• Demons vs Lions:  Demons!! 🏆 + 13

For mine, I think Carlton will beat Sydney. Sydney are just not it. Lucky to make finals, and couldn't even beat us for a home final in round 24, when we had nothing to play for and lost Melksham. They also haven't beaten a top 8 side since midway through the season, apart from GWS.
Carlton playing really good contested footy, and if Curnow has a good game I can't see them losing. 

However they'll then lose to the Pies, and the rest will pan out as you suggest. 

I've long thought that it'll be a Melbourne Brisbane grand final, but everything comes down to winning this week. Lose and I think we won't make it past the prelim.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Jaded No More