NON-MFC: Rd 04 2023

[Demonland 73,835]

Who are you tipping this week?

[gs77 4,546]

Lions v Pies at the Gabba could be an interesting one tonight. Which Brisbane will turn up? How will C'wood handle the sweaty conditions?

[Dee Zephyr 19,290]

I hope the Pies smash them tonight, would love it if the Lions are 1-3.

[buck_nekkid 6,082]

5 minutes ago, gs77 said:

Lions v Pies at the Gabba could be an interesting one tonight. Which Brisbane will turn up? How will C'wood handle the sweaty conditions?

Will the lights stay on?

[Demonstone 23,426]

10 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

I hope the Pies smash them tonight

#Crisp

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

Pies

Blues

Crows

Tigers

Saints

Swans

Giants

Dees

Cats

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,477]

Crows v Freo is an interesting one. 
Carn the Crows.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

I hope the Pies smash them tonight, would love it if the Lions are 1-3.

So would I, DZ. But I’d hate it if the Pies were 4-0. 
#quandary

[Dee Zephyr 19,290]

24 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

So would I, DZ. But I’d hate it if the Pies were 4-0. 
#quandary

Hearing ya WCW but I dislike the Lions a lot more. Don't like saying it but the Pies are actually fun to watch.

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Hearing ya WCW but I dislike the Lions a lot more. Don't like saying it but the Pies are actually fun to watch.

Are you even really a Dees supporter?!?!?!?!

‘Fun’ and ‘Pies’ should NOT be in the same sentence, unless ‘lose’ is in there as well. 

[Dee Zephyr 19,290]

2 minutes ago, WalkingCivilWar said:

Are you even really a Dees supporter?!?!?!?!

‘Fun’ and ‘Pies’ should NOT be in the same sentence, unless ‘lose’ is in there as well. 

😀you're right, at the risk of being sent to the cooler I take it back.

[daisycutter 29,909]

4 minutes ago, Dee Zephyr said:

😀you're right, at the risk of being sent to the cooler I take it back.

medication, dz!  make sure you are taking the correct dose and on time. be patient, it is curable.

[Kent 2,920]

1 hour ago, gs77 said:

Lions v Pies at the Gabba could be an interesting one tonight. Which Brisbane will turn up? How will C'wood handle the sweaty conditions?

Brisbane should prevail on their home turf

[biggestred 5,266]

1 hour ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Hearing ya WCW but I dislike the Lions a lot more. Don't like saying it but the Pies are actually fun to watch.

i understand this take but geez the pies fans were disgusting the when we lost to them at the end of last year. 

[In Harmes Way 7,842]

Hopefully the pies struggle in the conditions tonight which will help me rationalise why we were so bad.

[Deebauched 1,220]

Love to see a boil over  Norff v Bluebaggers. That umpire last week in gws game should be banned from umpiring AFL ever again. 

His feelings were hurt when a gws player Cogniglio? questioned his decision to play on after McKay dropped the ball red hot even tossed it away from himself.  Pathetic effort by McKay. Free to carlton bang in front of goal. Disgraceful.

Carlton will get the rub of the green this season due to TV ratings and reserve ticketing fees.

[Demonsterative 3,021]

There isn’t many games you would think of as a blockbuster,  much watch game. The tiges and bullies game is  the only game you would think with form and rivalry could make an interesting game. Pies and Lions should be a good watch depending on which Lions outfit turns up. 
 
I’ll be cheering for the Crows and Hawks… 

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,718]

My guess is that the lack of recognised ruckmen will not worry the Pies this evening. I'd like to think it would be close but Pies by 50 plus.

Can you stop them.... Some have said they will tire. Others say tag Daicos but they have the streaming forward game down to perfection

[Katrina Dee Fan 4,025]

My tips this round:

Brisbane (only because Collingwood don't have a ruck - So sad, too bad!)

Carlton

Fremantle

Richmond

St Kilda

Sydney

Essendon

Melbouirne

Geelong

[layzie 34,375]

3 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

I hope the Pies smash them tonight, would love it if the Lions are 1-3.

Never usually take this scenario but it would make for some great media.

[Deebauched 1,220]

22 minutes ago, Demonsterative said:

There isn’t many games you would think of as a blockbuster,  much watch game. The tiges and bullies game is  the only game you would think with form and rivalry could make an interesting game. Pies and Lions should be a good watch depending on which Lions outfit turns up. 
 
I’ll be cheering for the Crows and Hawks… 

 

Apart from the first and last game of the Gather round the rest are mostly bog ordinary games. Even ours against the druggies is nothing to write home about. Certainly wouldnt pay big money to fly and stay over there for the night. Turn on the telly at home.

What sort of crowds are they expecting in such a sparsely populated state? 9 games in all.

Edited April 6, 2023 by Deebauched

[binman 44,683]

Lions will win tonight.

They will phyiscally go after the pies, in particular the daicos brothers 

As i noted ahead of the last round, the way to beat the the pies and swans method is through intense pressure on the ball carier and shutting off corridor options (which has a two fold effect - continue to take the ecorridor on and turn it over more often, don't take it on and lose your one wood).

The dees did both of these things brilliantly against the swans.

On the former we continualy harrased and pressured their key kickers and as a result scored 6 goals from turnrover. On the latter, think how often swans players at half back looked in board for an option, even shaped to kick into the corridor and then changed their mind and went down the line instead. The Mcartin brothers must have done 10 times between them. Blakey too.

The Lions will surely look to take a similar approach in this game. 

I think the humidity wil be a huge facor because the Lions game is built around contested footy and the Pies one wood is their ball movement and ability to hit targets with high risk kicks.

The lions model is less impacted by humidity than that of the pies.

One, a slippery ball means more contested footy and ground balls - which suits the Lions (the pies imnproved contested numbers nothwistanding)

Two, assuming the lions bring the pressure, a slippery ball makes it is more likey the pies' chains of possession will break down - which is what happened in the first quarter of their game against the tigers when the ground was wet.

And three, the foundation of the Pies game is the crazy amount of all team running they do (eg to create outnumbers, multiple leads to hit up to control the ball - somethig we have really adopted - that wave of players following the ball in transition etc etc).

If it is as humid as it was when we played the lions, the pies will really struggle to maintain that sort of running to the end of the game.

The other factor is the Lion's record at the GABBA suggests that behind the cats at tax payer's park, they have the biggest home ground advantage of any team in the AFL. They certainly have an imposing record there. 

Lions by 27 points.

Betting suggestions: 

Lions to cover their +2.5 line @ 1.90 for 10 units.

Lions to win by more than 39 points @ 7.50 for 1 unit

 

Edited April 6, 2023 by binman

[TRIGON 4,796]

Gamble responsibly

[Deestar9 1,820]

1 hour ago, In Harmes Way said:

Hopefully the pies struggle in the conditions tonight which will help me rationalise why we were so bad.

Or maybe they lose 3 or more players which would be the equivalent of us losing Gawn ..

[layzie 34,375]

8 hours ago, Demonland said:

Who are you tipping this week?

Umming and ahhing about tonight's game all day today. Think it has to be Collingwood, I'll be really annoyed if I tip Brisbane and they turn it up again while Collingwood get a win. Recipe for a bad Thursday night.