PREGAME: Rd 03 vs Sydney

[sisso 2,569]

35 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not sure about dropping Harmes.  We may need a 'run with' player in the middle for Warner, Parker or Heeny.

Warner is really dangerous and went under the radar a bit last year.  The only swan to really stand up in the GF so potentially their most dangerous.  Not sure what happened vs Hawks this week but he was very ineffective.  Reckon Mitchell may have put a hard tag on him.

It is really hard to tell how good Sydney are as their two big wins have been vs GCS and Hawks.  And their end to 2022 wasn't super brilliant:  an ok win vs an injury depleted Dees, a one point win vs Pies and thrashed in the GF.

My lack of confidence for a win is driven more by our inability to beat Sydney in the past than belief that they really good...

Agree last week for them means nothing, Hawthorn aren't AFL quality they are all kids like GWS in 2012. They had a very soft game we need to shock them with intensity from the opening bounce

[SPC 3,495]

I missed the first 45 minutes on Friday night as I was out for dinner. Watching back the replay, our biggest issue was letting Lions have free players off the stoppage, especially in their 50. I counted 3 goals from it.

I think focus is a real issue and we cannot afford it this week.

Question for anyone- has TMAC been trained as a defender over summer?

Is Blake Howe worth coming in for Langdon to play HBF or HFF? Might need some marking ability around the ground. 
Could Viney play down back and Jordan play midfield minutes?
 

[58er 6,074]

23 minutes ago, SPC said:

I missed the first 45 minutes on Friday night as I was out for dinner. Watching back the replay, our biggest issue was letting Lions have free players off the stoppage, especially in their 50. I counted 3 goals from it.

I think focus is a real issue and we cannot afford it this week.

Question for anyone- has TMAC been trained as a defender over summer?

Is Blake Howe worth coming in for Langdon to play HBF or HFF? Might need some marking ability around the ground. 
Could Viney play down back and Jordan play midfield minutes?
 

Tmac spent a short period in defense vs Dogs I believe and a swap with Petty should always be ON during a game.

How you have dreampt LangdonHB ?  Howes as a replacement winger when JJ was best in midfield at Casey?  and Viney down back???

Who is going to take marks around the ground? Going on form for Casey JVR is a lock in for that and a forward role at times also.

Hope we play a full hard Demon type game this week and prove we are tough enough to go with the big boys. 

[640MD 3,327]

Just on this,  I thought that we were not playing with "freedom"   or not enjoying the night.

 Whether that was our fault or Lions I have no idea,    but the game was lost, then in the last 12 minutes the enjoyment was back   and it showed.

[SPC 3,495]

17 minutes ago, 58er said:

Tmac spent a short period in defense vs Dogs I believe and a swap with Petty should always be ON during a game.

How you have dreampt LangdonHB ?  Howes as a replacement winger when JJ was best in midfield at Casey?  and Viney down back???

Who is going to take marks around the ground? Going on form for Casey JVR is a lock in for that and a forward role at times also.

Hope we play a full hard Demon type game this week and prove we are tough enough to go with the big boys. 

I just thought Landon’s form this year has been poor and we need some additional marking between with the arcs with Max out- Howes can provide this on the wing.

I love Viney, but I’m not sure he compliments our mids, I think JJ could offer something different. 
 

[Diamond_Jim 12,387]

1 hour ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

I spent time playing footy up on the Gold Coast, and it was always humid. The ball was always slippery and wet. A yellow football was always worse than a red. I am not sure why that is, but the yellow Sherrin was always harder to grip. I am not excusing our players, as some of the tackling was also deplorable, but so many guys had the fumbles, which were completely uncharacteristic. 

Agree but why not go say 4 days early and train under lights. Instead we flew up day before and had a light daytime run. If players could not make it for personal reasons take the rest of the team. Was always amazed we used to do a drop in at Darwin but at least then we weren't playing a Darwin based team.

I expect the football budget is so tight with its cap that we can't do it but I'm sure if it was Collingwood or Geelong they would find a way

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,664]

I haven't read this whole thread, so this question may have already been asked and answered, but if May and Petty both play is using Tomlinson as Grundy's relief a viable option? I'm not averse to van Rooyen playing, but we have to recognise that Grundy needs support for up to 6 weeks, not just one. Is it feasible for van Rooyen to be second ruck for 6 weeks?  

[Gawndy the Great 9,010]

5-6 goals from d50 stoppages is unforgivable. We have suffered from these types of brain fades in the past and need a goto formula to really knuckle down and choke the stoppage in d50.

I noticed it in game and am not surprised it has come up on here. You can excuse 1 -2 per game but even that in consecutive games would be a red flag let alone 6 in one game.
 

Yze would want to pull his finger out and focus on his job as the midfield and stoppage coach and not let this develop into a trend as there were a few last week as well and can bet your house that the Swans will have a plan to win exploit us in this space too.  

[Brownie 5,920]

2 hours ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

I spent time playing footy up on the Gold Coast, and it was always humid. The ball was always slippery and wet. A yellow football was always worse than a red. I am not sure why that is, but the yellow Sherrin was always harder to grip. I am not excusing our players, as some of the tackling was also deplorable, but so many guys had the fumbles, which were completely uncharacteristic. 

I think you've got to give Brisbane more credit. Their defensive pressure was excellent. They pushed us wide to kick long down the wings for a lot of the night. Made me twitch watching us revert to 2022 tactics.

If we do the same early on against the Swans, I'll be curling up in a ball.

Yes it was slippery and it was hot, but they should be super fit and be able to run hard. Most of the players looked incredibly flat and were letting their opponents run freely into space.

[jnrmac 19,928]

2 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not sure about dropping Harmes.  We may need a 'run with' player in the middle for Warner, Parker or Heeny.

Warner is really dangerous and went under the radar a bit last year.  The only swan to really stand up in the GF so potentially their most dangerous.  Not sure what happened vs Hawks this week but he was very ineffective.  Reckon Mitchell may have put a hard tag on him.

It is really hard to tell how good Sydney are as their two big wins have been vs GCS and Hawks.  And their end to 2022 wasn't super brilliant:  an ok win vs an injury depleted Dees, a one point win vs Pies and thrashed in the GF.

My lack of confidence for a win is driven more by our inability to beat Sydney in the past than belief that they really good...

Gulden has stepped up big time.

[layzie 33,282]

36 minutes ago, SPC said:

I just thought Landon’s form this year has been poor and we need some additional marking between with the arcs with Max out- Howes can provide this on the wing.

I love Viney, but I’m not sure he compliments our mids, I think JJ could offer something different. 
 

Yeah good point on Howes, I'd like to know from the regular Casey watchers how far off he might be from a debut?

[Brownie 5,920]

2 minutes ago, layzie said:

Yeah good point on Howes, I'd like to know from the regular Casey watchers how far off he might be from a debut?

I thought JJ and Hibberd we're the stand outs last weekend at Casey.

JVR just consistently contests, marks and makes the second efforts at ground level. He does a fair bit of ruckwork up forward.

BBB and Friita aren't great at defensive pressure and TMAC was moving like a prawn trawler on Friday night. We gotta give the kid a go and rest TMAC. 

Melksham and Harmes we're both pretty putrid on Friday too.

I doubt Goody will swing three or four changes. But he should.

Tommo will be stiff to miss considering how little Hipwood did and how fast and hard the ball was coming in.

[Lucifers Hero 39,030]

10 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Gulden has stepped up big time.

He has but imv he is not their most dangerous midfielder.  We can't run with them all.

[Deemania since 56 6,569]

1 hour ago, sisso said:

Agree last week for them means nothing, Hawthorn aren't AFL quality they are all kids like GWS in 2012. They had a very soft game we need to shock them with intensity from the opening bounce

Clarrie and Trac are going to have to be on their best form to tear the Swans midfield apart - it's not going to be a ruck superiority effect although Grundy will give his all - it is going to be a 'reading' outcome of Swans at centre bounces and around the ground, plus a rather impelling desire to win the ball and use it well. Could be a very good game for Chandler, JJ if he gets a guernsey and Sparrow. Harmes will be needed for shut-down roles; Hibberd is essential. Shattered from the performance last week up until the blackout, it is difficult to make a judgment on the outcome of the game; at least the drop in form is occurring at a stage of the season from which we can recover and live up to the reputations we all expect. Go Dees, hard, lethal and make the plays that matter.

[Deemania since 56 6,569]

1 hour ago, 58er said:

Tmac spent a short period in defense vs Dogs I believe and a swap with Petty should always be ON during a game.

How you have dreampt LangdonHB ?  Howes as a replacement winger when JJ was best in midfield at Casey?  and Viney down back???

Who is going to take marks around the ground? Going on form for Casey JVR is a lock in for that and a forward role at times also.

Hope we play a full hard Demon type game this week and prove we are tough enough to go with the big boys. 

This game against the Swans is a baptism of fire (and what could be better training and development for some of our promising newbies when aged performers mellow as if the bottle has had a split cork for the past two years?)

[Pates 9,625]

I’m ignoring the Hawks result, they live up to the colours on their jumper. I don’t have much confidence coming into this match, they’ve had the wood on us for a while. We can’t play anywhere near that poo that we played vs Brisbane, it will be over at half time. The positive part of me is looking at a few things:

Our defensive general May is back, Viney and Fritta will be better for their runs last week, Brown is in great form, and I’m hoping that JVR will finally be brought in to add some excitement to the squad. 

First game of the year for me, so hopefully they put in a good showing. 

[fr_ap 2,435]

3 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Not sure about dropping Harmes.  We may need a 'run with' player in the middle for Warner, Parker or Heeny.

Warner is really dangerous and went under the radar a bit last year.  The only swan to really stand up in the GF so potentially their most dangerous.  Not sure what happened vs Hawks this week but he was very ineffective.  Reckon Mitchell may have put a hard tag on him.

It is really hard to tell how good Sydney are as their two big wins have been vs GCS and Hawks.  And their end to 2022 wasn't super brilliant:  an ok win vs an injury depleted Dees, a one point win vs Pies and thrashed in the GF.

My lack of confidence for a win is driven more by our inability to beat Sydney in the past than belief that they really good...

Not sure I entirely agree with this logic (bolded part)

If we had come out and smashed two middling/lower teams we'd be loving life and super confident right now. Fact is - only the very good/best teams consistently smash the teams they should. What would make it more difficult to get a read on their form is if they beat both by 10-20, which would indicate they weren't functioning at a top 4 level. But that's not what happened. 

As it is, the magnitude and manner of their wins are indicative of their quality - which is that of a top 4 side. It's not hard to tell how good they are - they're clearly very good, as they were last year. They may even be better now, as a young side with continued growth and very few veterans getting to the feared 31/32 mark other than Buddy (who they were without in any case). Without Buddy, Mcdonald and Amartey combined for close to 10 goals. We know how tough, dynamic and accountable their midfield is. 

We should not be taking any confidence from them 'only' smashing GCS and Hawthorn. It's what the best teams do.    

Separately on us - I have a niggling concern that something we have changed - game plan or mindset wise - has resulted in far less accountability from our mids both at stoppage and in transition. I thought it was very obvious in the Dogs game that Treloar/Mcrae/etc were running relatively unchecked in transition. Repeatedly. It was extremely obvious during the period they were on top. For whatever reason, it ultimately didn't hurt us too badly as the Dogs were hesitant with the ball.  

It then clearly happened again vs the Lions - even worse - the Brisbane midfield appeared to play entirely unchecked for the majority of the night. At clearance, at stoppage and in transition. 

At different times, neither felt like Dees games and I felt more uncomfortable (yes, including the Dogs game even though we got on top) than I have since 2020. 

I can't quite put my finger on it but I wonder if in trying to have a little more dare and respond to the flavour of the month - attacking footy, Collingwood etc. -  we've lost the balance that's served us well now for some time. 

If I'm right, the Swans (who have the most accountable midfield going round) will be a big reality check (and potentially, a really sizable loss). 

Don't hate on this btw - sky is not falling, far from it - but I can just feel something is a little awry... 

[Roost it far 7,620]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

Tmac spent a short period in defense vs Dogs I believe and a swap with Petty should always be ON during a game.

How you have dreampt LangdonHB ?  Howes as a replacement winger when JJ was best in midfield at Casey?  and Viney down back???

Who is going to take marks around the ground? Going on form for Casey JVR is a lock in for that and a forward role at times also.

Hope we play a full hard Demon type game this week and prove we are tough enough to go with the big boys. 

Last I checked we were the big boys

[Stu 901]

Against the Hawks, the Swans used Ladham's as primary ruck and McLean as the chop out. I know this can be a useless stat but Ladham's (17) lost the hitout count to Meek (19) for the Hawks and McLean had five. Hickey and Reid are both out for a few more weeks with injury. 

Grundy managed to get 45 hit outs compared to the Lions 42 (25 for McInerney and 17 for Fort), so the stats at least imply that he should win against Ladhams. It will be up for our mids to make use of that advantage. 

Given that McLean is a forward first and a ruck second, bringing in JVR for his debut seems like it offers a few additional opportunities with minimal risks (to team structure). He and TMac can be used to give Grundy a rest, so both only spend 5-10% of the game as the primary ruck on the ground. They can also rotate their own rests, so that one of them is available to ruck inside our F50 when Grundy is back on the ground (to allow him to sit a kick behind the play). 

It also gives the Swans an unknown player to consider and the additional forward pressure JVR brings will change the dynamic of our forward line while he is in there. Having TMac in the side allows us to swing him into defence if we're trying to close out a quarter, slow momentum, or a KPD goes down during the game, without losing too much from our attack.

If we don't bring in another tall, we will need to use Brown for our F50 ruck contests when TMac is off the ground, which means we lose him as an additional forward threat (and his goals from open play have been great in both games). Alternatively, we have Grundy come up into the F50 and we lose him from competing for a contested ball down the line.

We'd also be down a tall forward when Grundy is having a rest and TMac goes into the ruck. This will allow Paddy M to intercept more easily.

 

 

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

5 hours ago, MrFreeze said:

I'd love if Sestan developed his tank and become that power forward mid hybrid like Toby Greene 

Reckon he'll debut well before season's end and make an impact.  This bloke is a naturaly giifted footballer with the smarts to go with it.

Already has a body that will hold up at senior level, at least for short stints anyway till he gets the tank built.  Powerfull is an understatement given his age.

As you say its just a matter of the tank / fitness but i'll eat my hat if he hasn't debuted by about Rnd 12 or thereabouts.

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

2 hours ago, layzie said:

Yeah good point on Howes, I'd like to know from the regular Casey watchers how far off he might be from a debut?

A solid young prospect.  He's going to have his work cut out to replace someone from the seniors unless it's through injury.

Shows some lovely patches of work and when he does he looks the goods.  If he keeps building the tank & finds some consistency im sure a window will arise but, injuries aside, more likely to be 2024.

[Lil_red_fire_engine 10,880]

21 hours ago, Kick_It_To_Pickett said:

McVee has been serviceable, but who plays on Papley?

McVee or Bowey. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Lil_red_fire_engine

[Gawndy the Great 9,010]

2 hours ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Clarrie and Trac are going to have to be on their best form to tear the Swans midfield apart - it's not going to be a ruck superiority effect although Grundy will give his all - it is going to be a 'reading' outcome of Swans at centre bounces and around the ground, plus a rather impelling desire to win the ball and use it well. Could be a very good game for Chandler, JJ if he gets a guernsey and Sparrow. Harmes will be needed for shut-down roles; Hibberd is essential. Shattered from the performance last week up until the blackout, it is difficult to make a judgment on the outcome of the game; at least the drop in form is occurring at a stage of the season from which we can recover and live up to the reputations we all expect. Go Dees, hard, lethal and make the plays that matter.

I don’t think this is just about the boys being primed and putting on a performance to remember. They definitely need to make up for their performance on Friday but horse will have his team ready for that as well and he’ll do it in a very cunning way ie sit outside the contest and apply 200+ pressure index or something ridiculous. He is a remarkable game day coach. 

We have to have game plan ms A, B and C and knowing when one isn’t working and when to switch. We also need a plan to disarm Sydney’s strengths put to bed this notion of sticking to our plan only and doing it better than Sydney doing there’s. 

Yze and Goodwin are just as much on watch as the players this weekend. They have a lot to make up for in the wake of Sunday nights capitulation. it may sound harsh, but that is the standard we need to hold ourselves to in order to be a team to be remembered for the ages.  

[SPC 3,495]

Is our lack of attacking flair and willingness to take on the corridor- going to see us left behind??

Slow, boundary football will not get bums on seats..

[Demon Dynasty 17,108]

1 hour ago, Stu said:

Against the Hawks, the Swans used Ladham's as primary ruck and McLean as the chop out. I know this can be a useless stat but Ladham's (17) lost the hitout count to Meek (19) for the Hawks and McLean had five. Hickey and Reid are both out for a few more weeks with injury. 

Grundy managed to get 45 hit outs compared to the Lions 42 (25 for McInerney and 17 for Fort), so the stats at least imply that he should win against Ladhams. It will be up for our mids to make use of that advantage. 

Given that McLean is a forward first and a ruck second, bringing in JVR for his debut seems like it offers a few additional opportunities with minimal risks (to team structure). He and TMac can be used to give Grundy a rest, so both only spend 5-10% of the game as the primary ruck on the ground. They can also rotate their own rests, so that one of them is available to ruck inside our F50 when Grundy is back on the ground (to allow him to sit a kick behind the play). 

It also gives the Swans an unknown player to consider and the additional forward pressure JVR brings will change the dynamic of our forward line while he is in there. Having TMac in the side allows us to swing him into defence if we're trying to close out a quarter, slow momentum, or a KPD goes down during the game, without losing too much from our attack.

If we don't bring in another tall, we will need to use Brown for our F50 ruck contests when TMac is off the ground, which means we lose him as an additional forward threat (and his goals from open play have been great in both games). Alternatively, we have Grundy come up into the F50 and we lose him from competing for a contested ball down the line.

We'd also be down a tall forward when Grundy is having a rest and TMac goes into the ruck. This will allow Paddy M to intercept more easily.

 

 

Goes without saying, but we might struggle up forward without Kozzy in this one.  His stints through the middle will also hurt us as his run down / break away speed / agility is a major headache for any opp giving us some seriously quick transistion and finish coming inside 50 and drifting down there also.

T-Mac might well be asked to go around again as a chop out as you mention but not sure why TBH as he just can't get off the ground to compete at the moment.  Unless he somehow has a big turnaround athletically, then an extra mid might  e just as effective as Macca's rucking capability?

Given the Swans lack of serious ruck stocks i would think this is a great week to debut JVR for Melk.  Wouldn't  bet my house on it though knowing how often Goody loves to return to the same well most of the time.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Demon Dynasty