On 27/09/2022 at 01:18, Axis of Bob said:

I do find it really interesting the idea of overvaluing what you can see and undervaluing what you can't see.

As soon as posters saw "pick 7 for a salary cap dump and Bowes", they nearly fell over themselves to sign up. The questions of 'how much salary, how much do we have available, how does this fit into our salary strategy/structure' never really pops up because nobody know any of those numbers. It's effectively 'get pick 7 and Bowes for nothing because salary just goes into a magic box and those boffins will sort it out'.

Every bit of salary we take on is salary that we can't use to bring in a player that we may really need. And that is either this year or in future years, as we can bring salaries forward to create space in future years. 

In our situation, is spending nearly 7% of our salary cap for 2 years in the middle of our premiership window really worth pick 7 (minus change) and Jack Bowes?

Good post, I can see clearly now and the fog has lifted. 

Taking Bowes and his contract would be ridiculous and I wouldn't associate with anyone who is for it.

Including myself.

Bye.

  On 27/09/2022 at 01:18, Axis of Bob said:

I do find it really interesting the idea of overvaluing what you can see and undervaluing what you can't see.

As soon as posters saw "pick 7 for a salary cap dump and Bowes", they nearly fell over themselves to sign up. The questions of 'how much salary, how much do we have available, how does this fit into our salary strategy/structure' never really pops up because nobody know any of those numbers. It's effectively 'get pick 7 and Bowes for nothing because salary just goes into a magic box and those boffins will sort it out'.

Every bit of salary we take on is salary that we can't use to bring in a player that we may really need. And that is either this year or in future years, as we can bring salaries forward to create space in future years. 

In our situation, is spending nearly 7% of our salary cap for 2 years in the middle of our premiership window really worth pick 7 (minus change) and Jack Bowes?

Great post. 

I would also add that I expect our salary cap must already be tight. 

And secondly, Geelong and Melbourne have shown that you don’t need high picks to find talent in the draft. Pick 7 might get us the player ranked 5 on our draft board, while pick 32 might net us the player ranked 15.

Lastly, the value of picks is not as important as salary cap space. We picked the best player in the 2019 draft and are about to lose him well before his prime for less than we paid for him. 

  On 27/09/2022 at 00:46, Matt said:

This was my first thought, when I heard about pick 7. Freo are getting rid of quite a few players, you would think it would free up some money. Add pick 7 to pick 8 (from Port, which reportedly may happen) & we have a deal imo

I think the money they're freeing up is to accommodate Jackson, but I would be more than happy to accept 7 from Freo as part of the trade (without the future first going back).

Risky business, Jack is no great shakes and our new number 7 needs to be contracted too……could be a million kahoonas for not much, ….we could land both DeGoey and Brody Grundy for not much more.

This is a good deal for a rebuilding club but for clubs who already have a valuable top ten it's difficult to see how it gets done.

At around $650k you can shuffle things but $850k for two years for a $350k player...very hard

I'd be thinking Essendon would be one of the front runners for this war chest. I wpuld personally love to go for hin but I can't see how it gets done.

Fremantle: Gives 13 + salary cap space, gets Jackson

Melbourne: Gives Jackson, gets 7, 13, Bowes.

Gold Coast: Gives 7 and Bowes to Melbourne, salary cap problem is moved on to Freo.

 

7, 13 and Bowes for Jackson looks pretty suitable to me.

Fremantle must, surely, have salary cap space given Mundy's retirement, the overall age range of their list, the years of sucking and the multiple mature players being moved out this trade period.

The elephant in the room here is Gold Coast's inability to manage anything. Here we have a great young player originally from Surfers out of the academy, someone they should be building their team around as someone that won't just nick off back to Victoria and maybe even a future captain and they bulldoze any good bamboo roots they've grown with this ridiculous contract and now have to bail water out of the boat yet again.

This club doesn't get it and I'm not confident they ever will. 

  On 27/09/2022 at 22:40, layzie said:

The elephant in the room here is Gold Coast's inability to manage anything. Here we have a great young player originally from Surfers out of the academy, someone they should be building their team around as someone that won't just nick off back to Victoria and maybe even a future captain and they bulldoze any good bamboo roots they've grown with this ridiculous contract and now have to bail water out of the boat yet again.

This club doesn't get it and I'm not confident they ever will. 

I'll see your Gold Coast and raise you with one Collingwood Football Club, who enjoy a culture built around over-paying heart and soul players of the club, then dumping them to enable the retention of such role models as JDG. Spectacular salary cap management right there.

  On 27/09/2022 at 22:52, Roger Mellie said:

I'll see your Gold Coast and raise you with one Collingwood Football Club, who enjoy a culture built around over-paying heart and soul players of the club, then dumping them to enable the retention of such role models as JDG. Spectacular salary cap management right there.

Collingwood should do some kind of joint sponsorship with the TV show Love Island. Fits their values and ethos perfectly. 

 

  On 28/09/2022 at 22:29, Demonland said:

 

I would really love it if a building club got him. St Kilda should be pushing Brad Hill out the door for this trade. 

  On 27/09/2022 at 03:08, Diamond_Jim said:

This is a good deal for a rebuilding club but for clubs who already have a valuable top ten it's difficult to see how it gets done.

At around $650k you can shuffle things but $850k for two years for a $350k player...very hard

I'd pay Diamond Jim a backended 2 million bucks over 4 years deal to live like the King Of Thailand, if it meant we got pick 7, but one less list spot.

Get it done Dees!!

Edited September 28, 20222 yr by John Demonic

Surprised the Kangaroos are not interested, their picks are currently 1 and 55 and surely could use another.

  On 28/09/2022 at 23:28, Jibroni said:

Surprised the Kangaroos are not interested, their picks are currently 1 and 55 and surely could use another.

Makes perfect sense. It would suck if clubs just let Geelong have a straight line to him.

1.7 over 2 years is just too much for a guy that is in and out of a GC side that had injuries across their HB line all year.  Only clubs that could do this are rebuilding clubs.  Maybe NM or Hawks

  On 28/09/2022 at 22:29, Demonland said:

 

Patrick Dangerfield reveals he’s a “big fan” of Cats target Jack Bowes (sen.com.au)

Looks as if he's headed there

Edited September 29, 20222 yr by Dante

Not sure if the rebuilding clubs will really be an option, while they might have the cap space, I doubt they'll be prepared to match the asking price. Remember GC are only adding pick 7 if they also get a future 1st attached. Given the 2023 draft crop is supposed to be very strong, then I can't see NM or Hawks coming into play as they are likley to be near the top end of that draft. 

  On 22/09/2022 at 23:03, Lil_red_fire_engine said:

We lack outside accumulators that have clean hands and are high quality kicks. He fits the bill and is of good size and agility to play on multiple types. 

Don’t know enough about GC$, but do they have a surplus of “his type”?  Otherwise, if he is as good as some here seem to think, why would they let him go?  

  On 27/09/2022 at 08:07, Little Goffy said:

Fremantle: Gives 13 + salary cap space, gets Jackson

Melbourne: Gives Jackson, gets 7, 13, Bowes.

Gold Coast: Gives 7 and Bowes to Melbourne, salary cap problem is moved on to Freo.

 

7, 13 and Bowes for Jackson looks pretty suitable to me.

Fremantle must, surely, have salary cap space given Mundy's retirement, the overall age range of their list, the years of sucking and the multiple mature players being moved out this trade period.

What if we deal with Bowes mgr and say we strike up a new deal we could flatten out a portion of the next 2 years? His tax obligation would be reduced as a bonus so he’ll keep more money? 

  On 29/09/2022 at 06:25, monoccular said:

Don’t know enough about GC$, but do they have a surplus of “his type”?  Otherwise, if he is as good as some here seem to think, why would they let him go?  

$850k x 2 years by the sounds of it. 

  On 29/09/2022 at 07:50, CYB said:

What if we deal with Bowes mgr and say we strike up a new deal we could flatten out a portion of the next 2 years? His tax obligation would be reduced as a bonus so he’ll keep more money? 

Fun tax fact; the ATO has a scheme which applies to certain professions such as farmers or professional athletes where they can smooth any unusual or windfall income across several years or even offset their tax obligations from a good year by matching it with losses from a poor year.

Originally intended to help with the boom-bust and drought cycle for farmers, and for potentially one-off windfalls for athletes, such as prize money. 

I'm not sure exactly how it applies to athletes in this situation where a contacted income just happens to fluctuate due to backending, but I'd be confident it does because otherwise players would be unlikely to accept big spikes of salary like that.

This just reminded me; can anyone remember in more detail the story about Koutafides? As I recall, he agreed to multiple rounds of backending his contract in order to allow Carlton to manage its salary cap mess of the early 2000s. In the end, in his final seasons he was paid an astronomical amount and some people were acting like the salary cap problem was his fault; that he was the overpayed and underperforming star. Bad business, that. Best avoided.

Bowes is an OK player but not in the top 150 players in the comp. He's maybe worth 350 to 400k a year? Taking on the GC salary your effectively paying a million dollars over two years for draft pick 7. That's far too much.

 

Edited September 29, 20222 yr by dee-tox

  On 29/09/2022 at 10:25, dee-tox said:

Bowes is an OK player but not in the top 150 players in the comp. He's maybe worth 350 to 400k a year? Taking on the GC salary your effectively paying a million dollars over two years for draft pick 7. That's far too much.

 

i personally think he's not even worth close to that

the 'average' afl player earns ~$375k per annum

bowes, thanks to his willingness to shift his 5 year deal with gc17 to the final two years of his contract, is owed $850k pa over the next two years

that, quite frankly, is absurd

We have a guy with a very similar name, who is way better. And would be earning half of what this bloke is. Move on.