Why did we fade out in games?

[DirtyDees DDC 187]

We lost 12 of 24 last quarters this season,  including the final quarter in all 8 defeats.  Be easy to say it's due to a lack of fitness,  but our game plan, based on moving the ball around the boundary line through repeat contested possessions, must take it's toll physically and mentally.  We got beaten so often by teams that took the quick route...moving the ball quickly through the corridor.  We didn't  lose 8 games; we lost one game 8 times.  

[Sir Why You Little 37,127]

33 minutes ago, layzie said:

It relies on getting that early lead. Our game style is extremely taxing and you almost knew towards the end that if we didn't nail every opportunity that we'd left the door ajar. 

That brings me to the next point, ok so we didn't take a lot of chances early but our best footy this year came when we were able to generate scoring chances in quick succession. When we went long periods without even a shot at goal we really struggled. We would get it into our 50 and even lock it in for a stoppage on Fri night but in that second half it seemed extremely difficult for our small forwards to get the ball with a smidge of space and get some kind of look at goal.

So forward conversion rates are definitely one thing, I wasn't super annoyed with the early inaccuracy as long as we kept creating chances which after half time we inevitably didn't. We need more guile in front of goal, there is a reason Sydney have made it this far. 

Power Forward is what we lacked all year

Fritsch is a brilliant number 2

[Wells 11 5,422]

16 minutes ago, DirtyDees DDC said:

We lost 12 of 24 last quarters this season,  including the final quarter in all 8 defeats.  Be easy to say it's due to a lack of fitness,  but our game plan, based on moving the ball around the boundary line through repeat contested possessions, must take it's toll physically and mentally.  We got beaten so often by teams that took the quick route...moving the ball quickly through the corridor.  We didn't  lose 8 games; we lost one game 8 times.  

Well thats just a terribly unfair fixture ;-) . .....I did like your point there though. 

[binman 43,762]

2 hours ago, The heart beats true said:

I’d add to that consistency of having to play quality opponents. I wrote this in the loading thread but we played 12 of our last 14 games against top 8 sides, and 10 of those games were against the other top 5 teams! That will never happen again in an 18 side competition. We got very unlucky with our draw.

Yep.

And whilst the club put a positive spin on having to play three games at finals intensity in the last three games, of the home and away season, they no doubt had an impact physically - particularly the pies and blues games, which were as brutal as i can ever recall for h&a games,

The lions game was also super physical

And then we ran into the Swans in the q final and they were even more brutal than the Pies or Blues.

No wonder we were banged up.

[layzie 33,991]

I guess the question is how do we prepare for this better next time? It's pretty unlikely we're just going to have a soft draw fall into our lap to finish the season so we need to make sure we're as fresh as possible despite these big time finals like games. 

[binman 43,762]

49 minutes ago, DirtyDees DDC said:

We lost 12 of 24 last quarters this season,  including the final quarter in all 8 defeats.  Be easy to say it's due to a lack of fitness,  but our game plan, based on moving the ball around the boundary line through repeat contested possessions, must take it's toll physically and mentally.  We got beaten so often by teams that took the quick route...moving the ball quickly through the corridor.  We didn't  lose 8 games; we lost one game 8 times.  

I see what you are saying, but one rider i'd add is that if we had more players with above average kicking skills, and less players with below average kicking skills, we likely would have won four or more of the games we lost, including our two finals.  

We have too many players with absolutely terrible kicking techniques and that chicken really came home to roost this year, both in terms of missing shots that shouldn't be missed at AFL level and gifting opposition teams goals through woeful turnovers. 

And the issue was exacerbated by:

• Tmac, one of our most accurate kicks for goals, and an excellent field kick being out of the side
• Salem missing a big chunk of the year, and never getting back close to his best
• The decision to drop arguably one of our top 3 most skilled kicks in Bowey
• The pressure opposition teams brought - nothing exploits the cracks n technique more than pressure

[frankie_d 1,471]

16 minutes ago, binman said:

I see what you are saying, but one rider i'd add is that if we had more players with above average kicking skills, and less players with below average kicking skills, we likely would have won four or more of the games we lost, including our two finals.  

We have too many players with absolutely terrible kicking techniques and that chicken really came home to roost this year, both in terms of missing shots that shouldn't be missed at AFL level and gifting opposition teams goals through woeful turnovers. 

And the issue was exacerbated by:

• Tmac, one of our most accurate kicks for goals, and an excellent field kick being out of the side
• Salem missing a big chunk of the year, and never getting back close to his best
• The decision to drop arguably one of our top 3 most skilled kicks in Bowey
• The pressure opposition teams brought - nothing exploits the cracks n technique more than pressure

Agree 100%. I hate to bring them up but Daicos x 2, Elliot, Pendlebury, DeGoey, Sidebottom - all are very very good users of the ball. Have a look (if you can) at Collingwood's win - brilliant field kicking. 

 

 

[Rab D Nesbitt 8,493]

Kick 8-3 in the first half last week instead of 3-8 and the game is effectively over and we're a bees [censored] away from another GF, banged up or not. Our one regret should be not having tried JVR in a roaming centre half forward position a-la T-Mac over the last six weeks or so of the home and away season. BB then doesn't get double / triple teamed, we have two genuine marking targets again and our mosquito fleet doesn't have to produce the goods every time the ball hits the ground. Hell, we could have let him pinch hit in the ruck and give Dogga a run as a genuine mid just to keep the opposition on their toes. 

[Crystal Dees 372]

I have just done a comparison of out last halves for 2022 and 2021. I thought the last 14 games for each season was a big enough sample. Note that the 2021 numbers includes our low patch.

 

                                                  2022                                                                                                           

       For                                  Against                           %                                                 

71.80   506                         91.74    620                    81.6                                             

 

                                                   2021

    For                                       Against                           %

98.91     679                        54.49    373                    182

 

You can throw up all sorts of reasons/excuses/explanations.  Bottom line is, there is a problem. 

 

[Melb16 493]

Ultimately there will be a few factors contributing to the fade outs in some way, but for mine, it just has to be fitness. Whether that is due to injury, not getting the program right (my belief) or the game plan is too demanding, is up for debate.

But all of the other reasons thrown up here, such as not kicking straight, missing TMac etc. don’t pass the eye test in my opinion.

We were chasing tails in the second halves of games and it was clear the opposition got the game on their terms relatively easily. We looked gassed, helpless and could never turn the tide. 

Stating the obvious but it must be rectified. We can’t go into games next year with the mindset ‘if we don’t convert at 80% we’re stuffed’.

[The heart beats true 18,145]

3 hours ago, layzie said:

I guess the question is how do we prepare for this better next time? It's pretty unlikely we're just going to have a soft draw fall into our lap to finish the season so we need to make sure we're as fresh as possible despite these big time finals like games. 

We’re not going to get that hard a draw again. Ever. It’s statistically impossible. Our last 14 games included 10 against the other top 5 teams.

We can’t play finals for 3 months, when everyone else only has to play them for a month. A lot of things worked against us.

[everythingsablur 30]

17 hours ago, DemonSam said:

I think Burgess went pretty hard on the players in the off season, but he timed it beautifully so they came back cherry ripe for finals, I think Selwyn is the new guy who was learning under Burgess, comes in and wants to make a statement, push them just that little bit harder, surely that gets a better result right?

Sadly we were fittest in May and a side that doesn't rotate the team ever, going back to back was going to be very difficult

This. Clearly he pushed them too far and I've heard that from inside the club too.

[Crystal Dees 372]

37 minutes ago, The heart beats true said:

We’re not going to get that hard a draw again. Ever. It’s statistically impossible. Our last 14 games included 10 against the other top 5 teams.

We can’t play finals for 3 months, when everyone else only has to play them for a month. A lot of things worked against us.

...and we were outscored in 8 of those 10. In 2021 we played 7 games against top 5 teams and won EVERY 2nd half when comparing last 14 games. What you raise is a factor, but clearly there are other issues that we as a club got wrong. Maybe DemonSam has highlighted one of them (see above) 

[durango 2,023]

Remember Selwyn was the fitness guy at Brisbane and his record is poor as the primary.

Fitness was poor this year no matter whose fault.

I have always maintained that there is less science in getting players fit and more hard work.

I believe that they should train like triathletes by swinning, running and cycling combined with agility work and football.

[bing181 9,328]

3 hours ago, binman said:

The pressure opposition teams brought - nothing exploits the cracks n technique more than pressure

This is one of the main points that Goodwin made in his presser. He also spoke about not executing the fundamentals.

Also re kicking, that includes goal-kicking out of general play.

[Kent 2,914]

4 hours ago, layzie said:

I guess the question is how do we prepare for this better next time? It's pretty unlikely we're just going to have a soft draw fall into our lap to finish the season so we need to make sure we're as fresh as possible despite these big time finals like games. 

Use more players during the season like any sane football club would!

[Vineytime 854]

Nathan Jones on SEN today mentioned he thinks it’s due to us using all our petrol tickets crashing in winning the contested ball and focusing on defending all the time, that and our lack of efficiency when we have the ball forward. 
The most efficient teams seems to be the ones running the game out the best..

[Sir Why You Little 37,127]

2 minutes ago, Vineytime said:

Nathan Jones on SEN today mentioned he thinks it’s due to us using all our petrol tickets crashing in winning the contested ball and focusing on defending all the time, that and our lack of efficiency when we have the ball forward. 
The most efficient teams seems to be the ones running the game out the best..

100% right. We convert more goals from the Midfield domination that we often had. 3.8 last Friday 1st Quarter 

It will be the opposition who is gassed early 

It is a glaring deficiency. 

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

On 9/11/2022 at 5:28 PM, Rocknroll said:

Ben brown banged up cant run

 

Gawn banged up cant run

 

Viney banged up cant run

 

Trac banged up cant run

 

Clarry banged up cause carring others

 

Jacko banged up cant run

 

Kossie banged up cant run

 

Melk old cant run

 

Lingers banged up cant run

 

Spargo banged up cant run

 

This is in it in a nutshell.

Top ten players were singled out to be mutilated or broken after ten games. It was becoming AFL necessary...

Max gets scraped Oliver gets facial contact after his back, as well as Max's , became too obvious a target.Rules start getting progressively relaxed and amended.IE ..rule of the week with only one team knowing what it is.

[Jack7 528]

2021-ranked 3rd for pressure

2022-ranked 16th for pressure

 

That's the only stat you need,after winning the flag,the players lost the hunger,Period!!!

[Willmoy1947 4,140]

Not as simple as losing your hunger

[bing181 9,328]

Some great points raised by Nathan Jones regarding fitness, that Melbourne expend a lot of energy playing a very physical, bullish kind of game but then have to constantly bat up again and run the other way as the result of turnovers. He made the point that the teams that looks the fittest are the ones that are most efficient.

Though equally, efficiency and accuracy drop off with tiredness, so carts and horses?

[Demons1858 1,766]

So goody implied that we didnt manage the expectations that come with being chased by every team as the reigning premiers. Given we won away from home 100% of the time and lost at the G its hard to argue with. Equally, players seemed tired for periods in the 2nd half of games. They also appeared to have lost some hunger as the year dragged on and we had to expend so much energy playing against so many top 4/5 teams

Edited September 12, 2022 by Demons1858

[Demonsone 2,043]

On 9/12/2022 at 4:07 PM, durango said:

Remember Selwyn was the fitness guy at Brisbane and his record is poor as the primary.

Fitness was poor this year no matter whose fault.

I have always maintained that there is less science in getting players fit and more hard work.

I believe that they should train like triathletes by swinning, running and cycling combined with agility work and football.

Selwyn worked under Burgess in 21, so I assuming he would have continued with his fitness program, but lets hope the club reviews this and if he points to him he should go.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Demonsone

[chookrat 4,268]

On 9/11/2022 at 4:28 PM, Engorged Onion said:

All our losses (bar Geelong) looked exactly the same - 4-5 goals up by half time and ultimately a 3-5 goal loss. Put your conjecture here!

Loading 

Fitness

Culture

Defensive Structure

Goodwin

Bathwater

Hunted

Forward and Mid Pressure

Whipping Boys (ANB/ Spargo/Sparrow)

Selfishness

 

So many options to debate…

Naarm