Jump to content

  • Podcast:  

  • Podcast: 2022 Season Review & Trade Wrap 

The Run Home



Recommended Posts

51 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Top 4 would obviously be great, but my concern is that two other likely top 4 contenders are Brisbane and Fremantle.
Finishing below those two would make the first and third weeks of the finals very, very tough.

 

 

But only if we lose in Week 1.  if we win, we go straight into prelim and the gam will be at our home ground.   The losing Week 1 teams lose their advantage for a prelim home game. And that transfers to the 2 winners of Top 4 teams in week1.

So the trick for Goody is just get a Week 1 win done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Demon17 said:

But only if we lose in Week 1.  if we win, we go straight into prelim and the gam will be at our home ground.   The losing Week 1 teams lose their advantage for a prelim home game. And that transfers to the 2 winners of Top 4 teams in week1.

So the trick for Goody is just get a Week 1 win done.

Yes, but week one would be at the GABBA or Optus.  Finish top 2 and we can clean sweep at the MCG.

 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


11 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Yes, but week one would be at the GABBA or Optus.  Finish top 2 and we can clean sweep at the MCG.

Only if we win week 1.  Lose it and we could end up with an i/state Prelim.

I reckon we have a good chance of winning the forthcoming return games vs Freo and Lions.

Optus is our second fortress and we won't be missing 5 of our best next time (I hope). 

Gabba is 50/50 but our mauling of the Lions this week will cut deep scars and they have only a few months to recover.  Like the bulldogs after the GF mauling, I doubt the Lions will.

I've been very confident of top 4 all along.  I'm quietly confident of top 2.  If not I have no angst of playing those teams away.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd like to finish top so we are guaranteed to be wearing our home guernsey throughout the finals. The main contenders predominantly wear dark colours like ourselves and I don't want us being told by the AFL that we have to wear our royal blue version, as much as I think it's ok as an away game option. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

A not so small item of interest.

The other top 4 sides (Cats, Lions, Freo) play only 1 top 4 side for the rest of the season:  The Demons.

Win those and we go an extra game up on them.  Ditto if we beat Carlton (5th).

Edited by Lucifers Hero
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/24/2022 at 1:08 PM, layzie said:

Not even thinking ahead right now it's still week to week for me. A great win but not out of the woods, need a solid effort against the Crows then go again. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

A not so small item of interest.

The other top 4 sides (Cats, Lions, Freo) play only 1 top 4 side for the rest of the season:  The Demons.

Win those and we go an extra game up on them.  Ditto if we beat Carlton. 

That’s the beauty and the beast of a difficult run home, it’s not only a chance to get form on good teams but a chance to take further ground on them. On the same token, losing to them had the same affect in the reverse. 

I feel like we need to have a similar mindset to last season and put aside the fact the we’re the hunted. We tick things off, fist thing we win 2-3 more we play finals for sure. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


5 minutes ago, cookieboc said:

looking forward to playing Geelong. and beating them, looking forward to the Scott presser already

Scott - We had the flu and covid and a tummy bug but we're not making excuses because we've been loading and Tom Stewart was missing and Selwood was scared of Viney and May is a bully and Max is too tall and I won't mention Oliver and Petracca are too good. The quarters are too long which isn't fair and we only got double the frees! I mean what are the AFL thinking, we are Geelong where is our new training facility and home ground advantage? It's a conspiracy! But no excuses from me.

  • Like 4
  • Love 2
  • Haha 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/24/2022 at 8:05 PM, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Yes, but week one would be at the GABBA or Optus.  Finish top 2 and we can clean sweep at the MCG.

 

 

Bizarrely I was barracking for the Blues to assist with your theory about interstate teams, and hoping it helps keep Freo out of spots 1 and 2.

Same with the Cats whenever they play any interstate team.

Dockers have the Tigers and Dogs in Melb so thats two games that may be helpful if the home teams can get it done, but Lions only have the Tiges in Melb and a fairly soft home draw , plus Dees in fnail home game for them.

With a bit of luck, and if Dees and cats keep winning, Just maybe Freo and Lions are 3 and 4 on the ladder after season.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 games left

Win four and we are 15 wins which normally gets you 4-6

Win 5 and we would be unlucky not to be top 4

Win 6 it's second or third

Win 7 and we should end on top

Going to be a wild ride

Wins against Adelaide and Geelong would be a great start and of course there's Port in the Red Centre

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Diamond_Jim said:

8 games left

Win four and we are 15 wins which normally gets you 4-6

Win 5 and we would be unlucky not to be top 4

Win 6 it's second or third

Win 7 and we should end on top

Going to be a wild ride

Wins against Adelaide and Geelong would be a great start and of course there's Port in the Red Centre

4-0 run coming up 👌

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Voldermorts of the AFL (Essendon) in 2000 (who were kissed on their bee's [censored] by the injury gods) didn't care who they were playing, they were just mentally scarring everyone. Our best would smash their best (would be a hell of a game). My point is we can mentally damage teams with our run home. There will be some media noise about something, Fugazi, but then we go bang bang bang (really want to see Max kick another 50 on the run in a final.)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Diamond_Jim said:

8 games left

Win four and we are 15 wins which normally gets you 4-6

Win 5 and we would be unlucky not to be top 4

Win 6 it's second or third

Win 7 and we should end on top

Going to be a wild ride

Wins against Adelaide and Geelong would be a great start and of course there's Port in the Red Centre

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, CYB said:

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

nah, pretty sure we're playing traegar park

playing in alice is not anything like as debilitating or taxing as it doesn't have the humidity of darwin

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, CYB said:

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

The games in Alice Springs and the maximum temperature could be as low as 15 degrees for mid July. Certainly won’t be more than the low 20’s and shouldn’t be taxing.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, CYB said:

Why are we stuck with this game at TIO? I thought the deal had now completed. We don’t need the cash anymore so can’t the AFL get another club in need of dollars up there instead. 

It’s incredibly taxing on the players and we lose the home ground advantage.

 

This side isn’t the case, Alice Springs is actually mild and no humidity. 

I don’t mind us having one game in Alice every year, we’ve played there enough now that we are more familiar with the ground than any club in the AFL. My only annoyance is playing Port Adelaide there means we will likely not have the crowd support. Would much rather we play one of the likes of GC, GWS or even a Victorian side. 

As for not needing the cash, we sadly kinda still do. Our crowd numbers haven’t been great, we aren’t completely out of the woods. It’s also actually good that we are connecting to First Nations communities. 

Edited by Pates
  • Like 2
  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites


A summary of The Run Home:

image.png.ce60b8c9fd7d26110b6b93753edeac99.png

My thoughts:

  • We have a harder fixture than all others playing teams 2 to 5 and teams 7 and 8.  '
  • We will make top 4 and a very good chance of top 2.  Beat Freo, Lions and Blues and we stifle their chances of top 2. 
  • Cats will be top 2 🤮 whether we beat them or not.  Want to beat them because of their smugness and lack of respect.
  • The team most likely to drop out of the top 4 is Freo. 
  • Lions don't look too safe in the top 4 given the way they played last week.
  • Ironically two teams that can make top 4 due to their easy run home are Carlton and Collingwood.  If they do, on my reckoning, top 4 first final will be in Melbourne.  Win or lose the first final, all our finals could be in Melbourne.
  • Tigers will replace Bulldogs in the final 8 because of their much easier draw. 
  • On the assumption of 15 wins for top 4 Tigers are unlikely to make top 4 🙃☺️.
  • 16 wins could be enough for top 2!!  %'age will then be significant.
Edited by Lucifers Hero
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final Ladder per the Fox Footy predictor

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

  • 1. Melbourne (15.55 projected wins)
  • 2. Geelong Cats (15.1)
  • 3. Brisbane Lions (14.95)
  • 4. Fremantle (14.45)
  • 5. Carlton (14.25)
  • 6. Sydney Swans (14)
  • 7. Collingwood (13.15)
  • 8. Richmond (13)
  • 9. Western Bulldogs (12.2)

the-run-home-after-round-15-predicted-ladder

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Final Ladder per the Fox Footy predictor

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

  • 1. Melbourne (15.55 projected wins)
  • 2. Geelong Cats (15.1)
  • 3. Brisbane Lions (14.95)
  • 4. Fremantle (14.45)
  • 5. Carlton (14.25)
  • 6. Sydney Swans (14)
  • 7. Collingwood (13.15)
  • 8. Richmond (13)
  • 9. Western Bulldogs (12.2)

the-run-home-after-round-15-predicted-ladder

Here's mine:

image.png.31e92a5b64f8f11d5f012ab1303441c5.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, old dee said:

Not sure what all the discussion is about.

We will win them all! 

Its about who we will beat in the GF:cool:

(Send TIC so as not to tempt fate)

  • Love 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, WheeloRatings said:

Notwithstanding @old dee's comment that we will win them all, here are each team's chances of winning each remaining match based on my model.

image.png.0bfd923be0905c79f95de14fa4d46171.png

Can you explain the reasoning around 43% for Brisbane? Merely home ground advantage?

*edit - I'm sure there are an amalgam of data that make it - it seems a little 'off' after Thursday.

Edited by Engorged Onion
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Demonland Forums  

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles  

    GRAND NEW FLAG by Meggs

    Daisy was at pains to tell everyone who asked that the grand final story was NOT the Daisy Pearce story.  She wanted people to focus on the Melbourne Football Club, our wonderful players and non-playing teammates, her legacy buddy head coach Mick Stinear, the assistant coaches, the Club volunteers, the Board, the administrators, #DeeArmy, all supporters, in fact anyone who bleeds for the red and the blue.  But it is also a bit about the pioneer, role model, mother who is Daisy Pearce

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    EYES ON THE PRIZE by Meggs

    The Stinear/Pearce partnership has evolved over the 7 AFLW seasons and they have built a team with talented, committed footballers who play for each other and execute a highly entertaining brand of footy. On Sunday can a premiership be added to this legacy? This may well be the last time we see Daisy in the mighty red and blue as she contemplates her start date for a coaching role ‘Down at Kardinia Park’.  Last week’s sensational sealer in the Prelim showed everybody that Daisy could s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    DAISY’S DEMON DRIVE by Meggs

    On a blustery Saturday afternoon when the conditions affected marking skills and the ball bounced unpredictably, the Mighty Dees stuck fat against a determined Kangaroos outfit to break away with two final quarter goals to none to win AFLW Preliminary Final 2 by 17 points — an all-time high winning margin between these two teams.  From the outset it was a fiercely fought contest with Melbourne unable to find the ball in space. North really amped up their one-percenters an

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    NOT A MOMENT TO MISS by Meggs

    The AFLW Season 7 fixture was carefully crafted to purposely handicap the better teams and give the expansion and developing sides an easier draw.  Nonetheless, this weekend’s Preliminary Finals will showcase the Lions, Demons, Crows and Roos, teams widely accepted as the best 4 in the competition.   In Friday night’s Prelim 1 the minor premiers, Brisbane, will start warm favourites at home against Adelaide.   On Saturday afternoon at Ikon Park, Prelim 2 between Melbourne and North is

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    STICK TO YOUR GUNS by Meggs

    The Dees convincingly overcome the fast-starting reigning-premiers Adelaide to win by 21 points in a fiery Qualifying Final match at Ikon Park on Friday evening.     In that first quarter Adelaide jumped out of the blocks kicking their first goal inside 20 seconds finishing with 3 goals to nil. All was quiet at Ikon Park.     Melbourne, having easily outplayed lesser opponents over the past six weeks took time to ratchet up their intensity.  But, by mid to late first quarter, the Dees be

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    HEAVYWEIGHTS by Meggs

    AFLW heavyweights Melbourne and Adelaide kick off the AFLW Season 7 Final Series with a massive Qualifying Final clash at Ikon Park this Friday night at 7:10pm.  The game promises to be a cracker.   Last season’s Grand Final combatants last met in Round 1where Melbourne came away with a strong 18-point victory at Glenelg Oval. The Dees will be hoping to replicate the result and move directly to the Preliminary Final.    While Adelaide may not have been as intimidating this season as in p

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    MISSED IT BY THAT MUCH by Meggs

    Congratulations to Daisy’s Dees on a huge 78-point one-sided win against West Coast in challenging windy and wet conditions at Casey Fields.     The banner celebrating Sarah Lampard’s 50 games was a victim of the wind, but nonetheless Lampy received a warm round of applause from the parochial crowd in attendance.   Melbourne has the double-chance and is excited about its chances in the Season 7 AFLW finals. If this means the Grand Final is played at Metricon and the Demond make it, then

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    LIVE IN THE MOMENT by Meggs

    The final home and away match of Season 7, sees the mighty Dees at Fortress Casey hosting the 16th placed West Coast.     A win assures the Dees of a Top-2 finish, with the ultimate placings dependent upon the previous night’s result between Brisbane and Collingwood and the relative percentages.   As our match is anticipated to be one-sided, interest may turn to monitoring the live ladder to see whether or not Melbourne has secured the minor premiership.     The Demons (Lions and Cro

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    BOMBED by Whispering Jack

    Melbourne has all but assured itself of a top two finish to the (second) 2022 AFLW season after crushing Essendon by 41 points on Sunday. It now holds a four point lead over third placed Adelaide along with a handy percentage advantage with one round remaining before the finals. The Demons opened kicking with the advantage of the squally wind that often prevails at Casey Fields and for the third week in a row, they kept their opponents scoreless in the opening term. Speedster Alyssa Ba

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports
  • Tell a friend

    Love Demonland? Tell a friend!

×
×
  • Create New...