POSTGAME: Rd 12 vs Sydney

[rpfc 28,420]

1 hour ago, spirit of norm smith said:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/demons-humbled-again-as-young-bloods-shock-reigning-premiers-20220604-p5ar37.html
 

Umpiring … FFS. Lots of Swans goals from frees or umps distorted view.  Reid’s mark ?? Papley pushed Hunt in the back? Gulden held?? Papley in the back ??? Ladhams barrels Oliver on 3/4 siren - no 50 !!! FFS 

That mark looked a mark at the ground, papley is a pill but he had knees in his back, gulden was held and Bowey knew it, Oliver would have got the softest 50 for that.

What are we doing here? The umpires are being throttled at the moment so let’s get another excuse for the team… (eyeroll emoji)

Why does a strong team or a strong club need so many excuses?? For everything?

[Fat Tony 5,229]

I don't think it is a loading issue.

I think the last two weeks we have got nothing from our key forwards. This is partly due to Ben Brown being a liability at the moment and partly due to poor delivery and partly due to our opposition defending well on turnover.

Our defence will be better with May back but I also think Joel Smith is in our best defence because he offers more flexibility to swap and cover than Hunt and he is quicker than Hibberd.

[Pates 9,660]

1 minute ago, Fat Tony said:

I don't think it is a loading issue.

I think the last two weeks we have got nothing from our key forwards. This is partly due to Ben Brown being a liability at the moment and partly due to poor delivery and partly due to our opposition defending well on turnover.

Our defence will be better with May back but I also think Joel Smith is in our best defence because he offers more flexibility to swap and cover than Hunt and he is quicker than Hibberd.

Brown’s fallen back to the form of early 2021, giving absolutely nothing right now and is even missing shots as goal he would normally kick with his eyes closed, so he’s not even taking his limited chances. 

With TMac out, and Weid struggling I’m not sure we have any other choice than to persist and hope he comes good. 

You make a very good point though that the deliver to him is poor at best, we’re not getting him on leads, instead we’re popping it on his head and hoping he pulls something out. 

While we’re on the subject of forwards out of form, I would be looking at stopping ANB for Bedford. Nibblers a whipping boy and I don’t want to be harsh on him but his goal kicking season has been atrocious and to me he’s not doing enough on the forward pressure side of things. I would expect him to come back but for now I’m wondering if a spell at Casey might give him the kick he needs. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,783]

2 hours ago, binman said:

You don't have a bye in July/August to enable an all team two week (sometimes longer) break from playing a game of football and recover from being smashed on the track. 

And teams don't want to be playing sub optimal football in August, one month out from finals.

That is exactly when we started to get rolling last year - round 12 last year was 1 August, and coming off a draw against the Hawks and a loss to the dogs (games we still looked flat in) we thrashed the Suns by close to 100 and never looked back. 

You asked why other teams are not flagging ATM, and i noted the Freo lost two in a row prior to playing us and Brisbane had been flat in the last few weeks.

(perhaps Freo did a block of hard training in that period and freshened up to be ready for the dees and the lions - would make sense and in both games they were clearly running better and, after being behind in the first quarters, were noticeably stronger than us or the lions in the second half of both games)

Well, now the Lions, who were favourite to beat Freo (even though it was in Perth) and are second fav for the flag, have lost 2 of their last 3 games - and the win was a lucky one against the Suns having been 5 goals down in the first quarter.

Feels like a wobble to me.

The Lions play the Saints this week at home. They are big favorites, but if they lose, it will 3 losses from 4 games. 

The last thing i will say about about loading is that our contested ball and tackle numbers have been fine. Our all team pressure numbers haven't.

It seems to me that the obvious issue is we are not spreading and defensively running has hard as were in the first say 9 rounds, or certainly when we were cherry ripe come finals last years.

We are also suddenly more fumbly and making poor decisions - again juts as happened at this exact point in the season last year.

Why is the question.

Perhaps COVID has had an impact, perhaps the flu, maybe injury is biting. 

But i haven't heard or read a convincing argument why so many players running has dropped off at the one point - just as it did at the exact same point last year.

I don't buy that other teams have worked us out (though teams are playing smarter - less dump kicks into our D 50 for example), or our model is flawed, or the players are a bit complacent or that we are coming back to the pack etc etc. 

If people want to think that the problem is one of, a combination of, or all of these issues that's up to them

But i'm sticking with my theory. 

Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one.

And to be clear my answer isn't an excuse - it is a reason.

And i reckon people should get prepared for some more losses in the next few games - and training loads will be part of the reason for the losses.

I think we will struggle against the Pies, but they play a territory game like us and don't have the same ability to chain up possessions and stretch our defence web as Freo and the Swans. So i predict a low scoring arm wrestle that we just prevail in.

The Freo and Brisbane examples are clutching at straws.  Freo lost in round 9 and 10 which were played in very heavy, wet conditions and they didn't adjust their dry weather game plan.  Note how well they played on a dry MCG and Optus since.  Brisbane are at the tail end of 4 interstate trips in 6 weeks starting in round 7 to round 12:  Sydney, Gabba, Adelaide, Melbourne, Gabba, Perth with flights home after each trip.  A fair amount of disruption to training schedules etc and hardly a time to be 'loading'.

'Loading' as early as round 8 (to affect games in round 9 and 10) is rather early since their byes, like ours, aren't until round 14.

imv our loss to Freo was entirely due to lack of personnel:  May, Salem, Langdon, McDonald, Harmes.   Having an injured Petty and ill Petracca mid match caused imbalances all over the ground.  7 of our top 10 players 'missing' and Freo exploited the weaknesses created.  We weren't able to cover the gaps left.

And we lost to a whole bunch of Sydney's brilliant tactics:

• separated their forwards to isolate our defenders so ours couldn't leave their man and intercept or help others.
• corralled us to the boundary and stifled our ball movement so instead of handballing in waves to running players we hand balled in circles until we turned it over.  (They kicked 8 goals from turnovers we kicked zero whereas we normally kick 8-9 this way)
• without the boundary to enter our fwd 50 we resorted to bombing it long into the waiting hands of their backmen.
• closed the d50 exits.
• McCartin on Kozzie which enabled him to be the interceptor.
• double and triple teamed Brown.
• applied more pressure where it counted.  75 tackles to 58 tells a story.

We may have counted some but weren't able to counter all the above.

So yes, sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one and I've noted some very obvious objective reasons why the Freo, Lions and Demons have lost games in the last month.

All in all, the cause and affect that losses are caused by loading is a bit tenuous.

Now, I'm not saying loading doesn't exist just that it looks convenient and superficial to blame it for everyone's losses.  I can see that loading might happen during a bye like a mini pre-season to make up for lack of a game but not in rounds 9 - 10 when many players are run down from covid, injured or ill. 

And I don't get why 'loading' should ipso facto result in losses.  One would hope in such a tight season with competition for top 2 and top 4 red hot the 'loading' gurus would work out a way for it to not result in losses.   Losses will come regardless of loading so we don't need to add to them.

Edited June 6, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[jnrmac 20,063]

Putrid umpiring 

[rpfc 28,420]

34 minutes ago, jnrmac said:

Putrid umpiring 

I thought it was fine. We gave away crucial frees.

[Spargonicus 539]

On 6/5/2022 at 8:23 AM, Lucifers Hero said:

Sydney may have had a slight edge in the umpiring but we can't blame the umpires for losing the tackle count 75 to 58?  Maybe if we had tackled more or better we would have had more frees...

Simply put the tackle count is work rate and effort.  No skill or system required to tackle. 

We were outworked.

And really, the scoreboard flattered us 23 scoring shots to 16 for the same number of i50's.

Yep - their tackling was way better - in frequency and effect. It creates so much perceived pressure too, hence a higher number of poor decisions from our team.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

12 hours ago, bing181 said:

Then it should be easy for you to find some links to share with us.

Apart from anything else, if you're going to load up the players, you do it in the period leading up to the finals: mid-July/August. 

It's early June.

Go speak to people from our club or Port mate. Burgess doesn't post his whole fitness program online.

[Lord Nev 13,512]

13 hours ago, Go the Biff said:

Fair enough. This evidence of which you speak - has it been communicated to you from someone at the club who would know ? Is it what you've observed first hand at training ? Or is it you extrapolating on what you see in matches ?

Serious question. A lot would hope that you are correct but without real evidence, it is just clutching at straws to explain our performances in recent weeks

Bit of everything mate. Things I've been told, patterns in performance with clubs Burgess has been involved with, anecdotal evidence based off watching our running and skills at games.

I'm not saying it's the sole reason we've lost a couple of games, there's pretty obvious other problems as well, but it's just meant I'm not in a panic as I'm expecting us to lift after the bye.

[Willmoy1947 4,086]

38 minutes ago, rpfc said:

I thought it was fine. We gave away crucial frees.

It would be fine if it was consistent ,but it's not  and it varies from week to week game to game and team to team, and that has a demonstrable effect on the game rules perceived consistency.

[Clintosaurus 7,845]

1 hour ago, jnrmac said:

Putrid umpiring 

Yep. Swans were gifted at least 5 goals from decisions that were iffy at best and horrendous at worst. The Reid dropped mark in Q1 being a classic example.

[rpfc 28,420]

8 minutes ago, willmoy said:

It would be fine if it was consistent ,but it's not  and it varies from week to week game to game and team to team, and that has a demonstrable effect on the game rules perceived consistency.

That’s a great critique of umpiring - but this is about this particular game that was well umpired. We [censored] on them so much and here we have a game where Melbourne LITERALLY couldn’t capitalise on ONE mistake from Sydney and we have a few people blaming the umpiring? 

There are so many excuses floating about this place atm. Let’s take some responsibility; whether it be for low crowds, losses, and sloppy play.

[Deeko2 812]

5 minutes ago, rpfc said:

There are so many excuses floating about this place atm. Let’s take some responsibility; whether it be for low crowds, losses, and sloppy play.

Nicely said.

I've just wandered into this thread for a peak on lunch and can't believe the excuses getting thrown around.

Blaming the umpires is ridiculous.  I'm sure the critique of the umpiring would be similar on the Swans board as it's a bloody confusing game right now that's getting supporters a bit agitated.

The truth is Sydney were just a hell of a lot better in which LH points out wonderfully below.

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

And we lost to a whole bunch of Sydney's brilliant tactics:

• separated their forwards to isolate our defenders so ours couldn't leave their man and intercept or help others.
• corralled us to the boundary and stifled our ball movement so instead of handballing in waves to running players we hand balled in circles until we turned it over.  (They kicked 8 goals from turnovers we kicked zero whereas we normally kick 8-9 this way)
• without the boundary to enter our fwd 50 we resorted to bombing it long into the waiting hands of their backmen.
• closed the d50 exits.
• McCartin on Kozzie which enabled him to be the interceptor.
• double and triple teamed Brown.
• applied more pressure where it counted.  75 tackles to 58 tells a story.

Also, watching the game just shows how much luck you need with injuries to win a flag really.  We were absolutely blessed last year in this regard because:

• If one of Trac/Oliver goes down and the other plays a poor game - we are stuffed.  If one plays a poor game then we're still going to be troubled as Viney, Harmes, Sparrow and Jordan are wonderful foot soldiers but they're not going to win you a game.
• Without May, our defence is a shambles
• When our defence is a shambles, Lever gets lost trying to do to much and basically becomes useless
• Without Gawn, we would have lost that game by 8 goals.

 

[sue 9,106]

Not commenting on umpiring in this match in particular, but I think some underestimate the effect of bad decisions by saying it all washes out in the end etc. and rightly pointing to other factors that determine the result.  In an age where momentum seems to be critical, a bad decision that gives a team a single undeserved goal can be much more significant than the mere goal itself. Ditto for a deserved free not paid depriving an easy shot at goal.

 

 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

.

 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Engorged Onion

[praha 11,240]

1 hour ago, rpfc said:

I thought it was fine. We gave away crucial frees.

most of them yes but Papley played it to perfection. Was sitting on that pocket and he fell to ground straight away. He played for the free kick and the umpire technically right to award it but not in the spirit of the game. Not sure how experienced that umpire was but that simply doesn't get paid in finals.

[Gator 17,350]

I know they want Brayshaw to stay back and he's played very well in defence, but it's worth considering moving him back to the wing.  Structurally it worked well last year.

It also allows us to bring Rivers back, who we need to continue to develop.  Hibberd in for Hunt is another consideration.

A key forward with presence would also help.

[binman 42,945]

8 minutes ago, Hannibal Inc. said:

I know they want Brayshaw to stay back and he's played very well in defence, but it's worth considering moving him back to the wing.  Structurally it worked well last year.

It also allows us to bring Rivers back, who we need to continue to develop.  Hibberd in for Hunt is another consideration.

A key forward with presence would also help.

I agree. I was surprised he didn't go back o the wing when Salo came back in.

Hopefully Rivers gets back to his best form and can come back in and as you say gus goes back to his win role.

[Jaded No More 68,915]

2 minutes ago, binman said:

I agree. I was surprised he didn't go back o the wing when Salo came back in.

Hopefully Rivers gets back to his best form and can come back in and as you say gus goes back to his win role.

Even weirder was how often we used him to open the play up going inside 50, which is certainly not his forte (I absolutely adore Gus but his kicking is not the best). 

Salem was back and yet Gus was our main defensive playmaker. A strange move for mine. 

I think we would be better served with Gus back on the wing, Hibbo or Rivers back into defense and I would strongly consider playing JJ up forward in a defensive role. We have really struggled to keep the ball inside our attacking 50 the last few weeks, and our pressure has been well down forward of the centre all year.

What I don't want to see happen however is Gus moving to the wing and JJ going out of the side. I think he has been great on the wing and we need to keep developing both him and Sparrow, who despite having a stinker on Saturday is a very good young kid with a heap of potential. 

 

[buck_nekkid 5,858]

`We were beaten by continuous intense pressure in the contest, and winning the post contest possession.  Rather than use the extra in the contest, they seemed to pressure the player and all potential outlets.  This created the turnovers and lack of forward drive.

We failed to control the tempo, and our basic skills were below standard.  We wanted to do the flashy when we needed to execute perfectly the basics first.

Our method into f50 was a joke.  We bombed it in, allowed therm to flood and double and triple team us.  Even plugger Lockett would have struggled.

We were down on defensive personnel, May out, Petty banged up and Tommo still getting the rust off.  Their movement i50 further enhanced the problems.

We have some work to do.  Right across the board but mostly in our approach to the contest and basics.

[roy11 3,853]

Whilst people are talking about umpires, I’ve not seen a replay, but at the time thought Swans were incredibly lucky late in the 3rd quarter to not give away a 50m penalty when ANB was caught high and late, would have been an important goal. Oh well. 

[roy11 3,853]

9 minutes ago, buck_nekkid said:

`We were beaten by continuous intense pressure in the contest, and winning the post contest possession.  Rather than use the extra in the contest, they seemed to pressure the player and all potential outlets.  This created the turnovers and lack of forward drive.

We failed to control the tempo, and our basic skills were below standard.  We wanted to do the flashy when we needed to execute perfectly the basics first.

Our method into f50 was a joke.  We bombed it in, allowed therm to flood and double and triple team us.  Even plugger Lockett would have struggled.

We were down on defensive personnel, May out, Petty banged up and Tommo still getting the rust off.  Their movement i50 further enhanced the problems.

We have some work to do.  Right across the board but mostly in our approach to the contest and basics.

Yep as critical as we like to be about ourselves the Swans were beast like,  constant pressure, tackles and covered an additional 10km distance during the game compared to us 

[binman 42,945]

After these final four comments, I'm tapping out of the loading discussion, because i'm probably coming across as some crazy loading proselyting zealot. I'm happy to stick with my theory, and happy for others to have theirs of course.

The first comment is to reinforce that i am not looking to make excuses for the poor performance of the team, rather looking to identify the reason for the drop off.  We all know the symptoms (fumbles, poor decision making, hard to score, easy to score against etc etc) and i think my theory is the most logical explanation to help explain those symptoms.

The second comment relates to the first - loading is not the only reason for our poor performance. LH listed a number of excellent factors that contributed to our poor performance in the last two weeks. I would say that fatigue related to additional training loads would exacerbate all of them.

My final comment is a thought experiment.

Lets imagine  Australia's best 800 metre runner, Peter Bol was preparing to run in the Olympic 800 metre final on the last day of September, so of course wants to be at his absolute cherry ripe best on that date. 

And then lets imagine he has the first race of his European running season in late March.

As someone who makes his living  from professional running, Peter is desperate to win that race and earn the ranking points and the cash prizes.

So of course, he has done a huge block of preseason training to be cherry ripe for the first race of the season to maximize his chance of winning that race. 

It is not feasible, however, for him to remain at that level for six months.

To be cherry ripe for the 800 metre final on the last day of September, Peter is going to have stop racing at some point and do another heavy block of training, and then taper so he is both fresh and at the optimal fitness level, come grand final day.

All that is accepted wisdom. 

It is uncontested the AFL is one of the most aerobically challenging football codes. The average player runs anywhere between 12 to 20 kilometers per game, which is incredible really.

The training and athleticism required to achieve those sort of distances for 6 months in competition is comparable, i would have thought, to that of elite, world class runners.

Given, that, and the fact that AFL football teams have performance management programs and experts the equal of any in the world (if not in resources certainly in output) why would AFL clubs NOT replicate what is accepted practice (based on decades of research and experience) in analogous sports (eg running, swimming) requiring equivalent fitness levels and the need to peak at the start of the season and again for their grand final?

My last comment is that  these exact same discussions were being had on DL at this point last season.  We looked fatigued then and played sub optimally until round 18 (1 August 2021) when we got going and pulverized the Suns with our swarm. We maintained that level until the very last minute of the GF.

My expectation is that, injuries notwithstanding, our 2022 season will follow a similar trajectory. 

Edited June 6, 2022 by binman

[Sydee 4,435]

31 minutes ago, binman said:

After these final three comments, I'm tapping out of the loading discussion, because i'm probably coming across as some crazy loading proselyting zealot. I'm happy to stick with my theory, and happy for others to have theirs of course.

The first comment is to reinforce that i am not looking to making excuses for the poor performance of the team, rather looking to identify the reason for the drop off.  We all know the symptoms (fumbles, poor decision making, hard to score, easy to score against etc etc) and i think my theory is the most logical explanation to help explain those symptoms.

The second comment relates to the first - loading is not the only reason for our poor performance. LH listed a number of excellent factors that contributed to our poor performance in the last two weeks. I would say that fatigue related to additional training loads would exacerbate all of them.

My final comment is a thought experiment.

Lets imagine  Australia's best 800 metre runner, Peter Bol was preparing to run in the Olympic 800 metre final on the last day of September, so of course want to be at his absolute cherry ripe best on that date. 

And then lets imagine he has the first race of his European running season in late March.

As someone who makes his living  from professional running he is desperate to win that race, get the ranking points and the cash prizes. So of course, he has done a huge block of preseason training to be cherry ripe for that first race of the season to maximize his chance of winning that race. 

It is not feasible, however, for him to remain at that level for six months.

To be cherry ripe for the 800 metre final on the last day of September, Peter is going to have stop racing at some point and do another heavy block of training, and then taper so he is both fresh and at the optimal fitness level, for his grand final. All that is accepted wisdom. 

It is uncontested that the AFL is one of the most aerobically challenging football codes. The average player runs anywhere between 12 to 20 kilometers per game, which is incredible really. The training and athleticism required to achieve those sort of distances for 6 months in competition is comparable, i would have thought, to that of elite, world class runners.

Given, that, and the fact that AFL football teams have performance management programs and experts the equal of any in the world (if not in resources certainly in output) why would AFL clubs NOT replicate what is accepted practice in analogous sports (eg running, swimming) requiring equivalent fitness levels and the need to peak at the start of the season and again for their grand final?

Really hope you are right Binman - we have a difficult draw remaining and my personal opinion is that we need to finish top 4 and more importantly get a home final if we are a serious threat to go all the way

I'd love to think we can win this week - if we don't its obviously not the end of the world but we would want to start performing at a higher level soon  

I watched Trac closely this week and he just seemed to lack his normal explosive power and couldn't seem to run at pace for any length of time - a few weeks ago that wasn't the case 

I was also blown away to see that 8 of the top 10 possession getters in the Swans game were MFC players - in that scenario I'm still shocked we lost the game

[Watson11 2,240]

1 hour ago, binman said:

After these final four comments, I'm tapping out of the loading discussion, because i'm probably coming across as some crazy loading proselyting zealot. I'm happy to stick with my theory, and happy for others to have theirs of course.

The first comment is to reinforce that i am not looking to make excuses for the poor performance of the team, rather looking to identify the reason for the drop off.  We all know the symptoms (fumbles, poor decision making, hard to score, easy to score against etc etc) and i think my theory is the most logical explanation to help explain those symptoms.

The second comment relates to the first - loading is not the only reason for our poor performance. LH listed a number of excellent factors that contributed to our poor performance in the last two weeks. I would say that fatigue related to additional training loads would exacerbate all of them.

My final comment is a thought experiment.

Lets imagine  Australia's best 800 metre runner, Peter Bol was preparing to run in the Olympic 800 metre final on the last day of September, so of course wants to be at his absolute cherry ripe best on that date. 

And then lets imagine he has the first race of his European running season in late March.

As someone who makes his living  from professional running, Peter is desperate to win that race and earn the ranking points and the cash prizes.

So of course, he has done a huge block of preseason training to be cherry ripe for the first race of the season to maximize his chance of winning that race. 

It is not feasible, however, for him to remain at that level for six months.

To be cherry ripe for the 800 metre final on the last day of September, Peter is going to have stop racing at some point and do another heavy block of training, and then taper so he is both fresh and at the optimal fitness level, come grand final day.

All that is accepted wisdom. 

It is uncontested the AFL is one of the most aerobically challenging football codes. The average player runs anywhere between 12 to 20 kilometers per game, which is incredible really.

The training and athleticism required to achieve those sort of distances for 6 months in competition is comparable, i would have thought, to that of elite, world class runners.

Given, that, and the fact that AFL football teams have performance management programs and experts the equal of any in the world (if not in resources certainly in output) why would AFL clubs NOT replicate what is accepted practice (based on decades of research and experience) in analogous sports (eg running, swimming) requiring equivalent fitness levels and the need to peak at the start of the season and again for their grand final?

My last comment is that  these exact same discussions were being had on DL at this point last season.  We looked fatigued then and played sub optimally until round 18 (1 August 2021) when we got going and pulverized the Suns with our swarm. We maintained that level until the very last minute of the GF.

My expectation is that, injuries notwithstanding, our 2022 season will follow a similar trajectory. 

I would also add athletes often have heavy/light blocks when loading, so you would expect the high performance team to ease off in the weeks that we have tough games and load in weeks against teams that are lower on the ladder.  Might explain our great efforts against Brisbane and Port last year which were surrounded by sub par efforts last year.

Also, our 4th qtr stats support the loading theory. In that round 11 to 18 period last year we were 3w-5l in 4th qtrs, but we were 14w-3l in 4th qtrs for the rest of the season (losses were 1 point, 4 points and 6 points). 

This year we were 7w-3l in 4th qtrs for weeks 1-10 and so far are 0w-2l for the "loading period".  We have not looked as fit this year as last, so we probably need the loading period even more.

The only concern this year is it's a lot tougher draw in that period.  And our pressure has been down from week 1 so we have a lot of work to do. 

Final thing to add, is with a 10-0 or 9-1 start I think you can start loading and preparing for September.  I doubt Sydney felt the same way as they were only 1 game inside the 8.