Who are our rivals?

[Ollie fan 3,468]

Three rounds in, it is pretty clear that we don’t have to worry about any of the teams not in the eight. It seems to me that Carlton are ok but not great - we need to see them against real quality;  I can’t think clearly about Geelong because I hate them so much but I think they were flattered by playing against witches hats (Essendon) in the first round and were lucky this week. We seem to have Footscray covered. Brisbane are obviously a good team. Sydney probably. Who else?

[Jaded No More 68,972]

Sydney - play a similar style to us, good even spread across the ground. Very talented side and superbly coached.

Brisbane- talent on every line. Excellent midfield. Will challenge again. Question marks over their ability to get it done in finals and at the MCG. 

Carlton- I have my doubts about their defense and defensive work rate but their mids and forwards are elite 

GWS- can be and do anything but probably won’t 

Geelong - old 

Dogs- poor defensively 

The rest do not keep me awake at night. 

[Allus Monk 568]

I was just thinking about this tonight. I think it’s Melbourne and Brisbane for the next two years, and then Carlton becomes a serious rival just as we’re on slightly different trajectories. 

[bobby1554 1,261]

At the G…….in September……..NO-ONE

 

[Sir Why You Little 37,119]

Revisit this in 3 weeks. 
6 Rounds is enough to start judging form

Brisbane are a good side,

Carlton will get better,

Whorethorn you never discount. Even with an ordinary list, they can turn it on

3 more weeks…

[hemingway 7,630]

Enjoy the moment and enjoy each win. After a lifetime of playing and watching sport, I follow the old adage of not getting too far ahead of oneself. Injury and other unforeseen variables can change the picture very quickly. 

And we have had 3 rounds. 

Lets just enjoy now. 

[Garbo 1,542]

Touch wood but I think we have peaked at the perfect time, I don’t think anyone will match us for the next few years if stay relatively healthy. It’s us then daylight. 

[bing181 9,328]

5 hours ago, Garbo said:

I don’t think anyone will match us for the next few years if stay relatively healthy

... and retain the current list (Brayshaw and Jackson the two possible concerns).

[dee-tox 4,835]

The Blues could cause us some trouble. Curnow is coming good and is excellent support for McKay. Cripps is back to his best and with Walsh, Cerra, Hewitt and Kennedy they have midfield depth.

 

[Josh 1,420]

Carlton remind me of a 2018 Melbourne. Alot of hype, and deservedly so but the pressure will mount as the performances stack up. They have the star power in a similar way that we did but it will take time IMHO

 

[rpfc 28,727]

Sydney don’t win contested footy like we do. Like you have to in Finals.

Carlton’s defence is a worry but that midfield and fed line can kick 8 goals in 15 mins on any team. 

Geelong look like they will be around the mark again… ugh

Dogs can beat anyone on their day, but they are getting less and less of those days.

GWS should be in the 8 but don’t feel threatening. 

Hawks are plucky but nah.
 

Brisbane are the real deal and are the biggest challenger. How hungry are they? We will find out… they play in Mordor this Friday.

[praha 11,240]

33 minutes ago, Josh said:

Carlton remind me of a 2018 Melbourne. Alot of hype, and deservedly so but the pressure will mount as the performances stack up. They have the star power in a similar way that we did but it will take time IMHO

 

Came here to say this. Can score quickly but also get scored against quickly. They will win some big games this year. But they still lack polish imo. They could well finish top 4.

They along with Sydney, Brisbane and Collingwood are my biggest concerns this year. I'm not concerned about Geelong, nor the Bulldogs.

[BDA 22,866]

Brisbane and Sydney

But we are the best team both talent wise and system

And we are managing to cover some significant injuries while still banking the wins

Finish top 2, fingers crossed we are healthy coming into September,  and a glorious finals series in the G beckons

[titan_uranus 25,040]

If you're talking about this season, it's still too early to know for sure but it seems the sides who will be pushing for top 4 alongside us are Brisbane, Sydney, Carlton, Geelong and, I'd argue, the Dogs.

The Dogs are one of only two sides to have opened the season with three games against sides currently sitting in the top 8 (they've had us, Carlton and Sydney; Essendon's had us, Brisbane and Geelong). They admittedly have a tough fixture (repeat games against us, Sydney, Geelong, GWS and Hawthorn) but I think they will work out a forward structure in Bruce's absence and their midfield will alone be enough for most of the rest of the competition.

Hawthorn, Fremantle and Collingwood are all in the 8 but I'm not convinced by any of them, Fremantle least so. Both Hawthorn and Collingwood I think are starting the season with vigour from their new coaches and their refreshing approaches, but IMO as the season presses on they will find themselves increasingly worn out.

[Pates 9,660]

Early days but appears to be Sydney and Brisbane, Carlton we’re very lucky to get over the line against the Hawks and it was a very scrappy game. 

Geelong will continue to be up there purely from the fact they’ve got a massive home ground advantage at KP but I don’t see them having enough young blood to keep the older players fresh for the full season. 

Any team smacking another team by over 100pts needs to be respected, Lions are a formidable team when up and running. 

[FlashInThePan 1,893]

It is purely speculation at this early stage but my guess is that of the new contenders Collingwood and Hawthorn will fall away as the season rolls. Carlton on the other  hand might actually have something going on. I'd really like to see them against us or Brisbane or Sydney, who I think are the current fairly certain contenders. That being said they took care of the Dogs so you can't say they just have a lucky draw so far.

[Lucifers Hero 40,309]

Brisbane:  On the way to being top 4 again, maybe top 2. 

Sydney:  Have the team for a top 4 finish.  Likely to feature in the prelims.

Geelong:  Fixtured to play most of the the back half of the season in Melbourne and mainly at GMBA.  Will suit their weary bones.  They lost their last few games at GMHBA last year so they may run out of legs again.  Will be praying on a top 4 finish/double chance. 

Carlton:  Will make the to 8, maybe top 4.  Unbelievable easy run:  Play only one of 2021 top 8 twice:  GWS.  Play only two of current top 8 twice:  Pies and Freo.  Richmond won the 2017 flag from 13th.  Carlton finished 13th in 2021 so theoretically could win it but Richmond had a few years of finals, albeit losing ones.  They play 9 games at the G so will be quite familiar with it.  Some crucial games to end their season: Cats, Giants, Crows, Lions, Demons, Pies.  They may run out of puff by then.  Doubt they will make a Prelim.

A lottery for 6th, 7th and 8th spots.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Lucifers Hero

[Guest]

For me, it's Lions and daylight.

Rayner being back helps. McStay and Hipwood were huge outs for their match with us. They are hungry after going out the way they did last year ('Free kick! Bulldogs!' anyone?)

Swannies will be a decent scrapper, but I wonder if they have enough of a superstar factor? Buddy qualifies as one for sure, but he isn't 2008's Buddy Franklin.

For mine, Carlton will finish 4th at highest and 8th at lowest. I think they need a bit more time to gel and find another key back. Weitering is good but I wonder about their overall system back there.

[Jjrogan 1,439]

Bigger picture rival...

Lions 01, 02, 03

Cats 07, 09, 11

Hawks 13, 14, 15

Tigers 17, 19, 20

But this year I agree its the Lions then daylight. Only team with finals experience, star power and depth across every line to match Melbourne right now.  

[Demon4Life 603]

Carlton's draw is a bit of a nightmare at the end there. I suspect they may drop quite a few spots in the final rounds

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,932]

A few people have accused Carlton of not beating anyone of note.

Last time I checked Bulldogs were a half handy side.

Edited April 4, 2022 by Bring-Back-Powell

[titan_uranus 25,040]

4 hours ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Brisbane:  On the way to being top 4 again, maybe top 2. 

Sydney:  Have the team for a top 4 finish.  Likely to feature in the prelims.

Geelong:  Fixtured to play most of the the back half of the season in Melbourne and mainly at GMBA.  Will suit their weary bones.  They lost their last few games at GMHBA last year so they may run out of legs again.  Will be praying on a top 4 finish/double chance. 

Carlton:  Will make the to 8, maybe top 4.  Unbelievable easy run:  Play only one of 2021 top 8 twice:  GWS.  Play only two of current top 8 twice:  Pies and Freo.  Richmond won the 2017 flag from 13th.  Carlton finished 13th in 2021 so theoretically could win it but Richmond had a few years of finals, albeit losing ones.  They play 9 games at the G so will be quite familiar with it.  Some crucial games to end their season: Cats, Giants, Crows, Lions, Demons, Pies.  They may run out of puff by then.  Doubt they will make a Prelim.

A lottery for 6th, 7th and 8th spots.

Agree, although I'm pretty confident the Dogs will be making finals this year, so at this stage I'd be confining the lottery to 7th and 8th.

Carlton's repeat games are against Richmond, Collingwood, Adelaide, GWS and Fremantle. Right now Richmond, Adelaide and Fremantle don't look like threatening Carlton much, so that's not a bad draw. But as you say, their post-bye run is pretty tough, particularly the last few rounds. Problem is, their next five are GC, Port, Fremantle, North and Adelaide. I don't want to alarm anyone...but...8-0 is not completely out of the question for Carlton. 

1 hour ago, Colin B. Flaubert said:

For me, it's Lions and daylight.

Rayner being back helps. McStay and Hipwood were huge outs for their match with us. They are hungry after going out the way they did last year ('Free kick! Bulldogs!' anyone?)

Swannies will be a decent scrapper, but I wonder if they have enough of a superstar factor? Buddy qualifies as one for sure, but he isn't 2008's Buddy Franklin.

For mine, Carlton will finish 4th at highest and 8th at lowest. I think they need a bit more time to gel and find another key back. Weitering is good but I wonder about their overall system back there.

I reckon Heeney satisfies that pretty nicely.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

 I reckon Heeney satisfies that pretty nicely.

He’s definitely a top class player. But let’s compare him with say Dusty, Bont or Tracc (not many can for the record). 

Take any of those three and drop them in say Collingwood for argument’s sake, then you’ve taken a team that would have finished 9 to 14 to one that realistically could finish from 4 to 7.

They wouldn’t win their new team a flag, but their impact would be palpable. I’m not sure Heeney is at that level yet.

[Demonstone 22,792]

Marty Fields has this outstanding take on Carlton's chances this year:

"Carlton are 13-1 for the premiership.  Which means if you put $50 on, you will lose $50."

[Sydney_Demon 1,175]

1 hour ago, Lucifers Hero said:

Brisbane:  On the way to being top 4 again, maybe top 2. 

Sydney:  Have the team for a top 4 finish.  Likely to feature in the prelims.

Geelong:  Fixtured to play most of the the back half of the season in Melbourne and mainly at GMBA.  Will suit their weary bones.  They lost their last few games at GMHBA last year so they may run out of legs again.  Will be praying on a top 4 finish/double chance. 

Carlton:  Will make the to 8, maybe top 4.  Unbelievable easy run:  Play only one of 2021 top 8 twice:  GWS.  Play only two of current top 8 twice:  Pies and Freo.  Richmond won the 2017 flag from 13th.  Carlton finished 13th in 2021 so theoretically could win it but Richmond had a few years of finals, albeit losing ones.  They play 9 games at the G so will be quite familiar with it.  Some crucial games to end their season: Cats, Giants, Crows, Lions, Demons, Pies.  They may run out of puff by then.  Doubt they will make a Prelim.

A lottery for 6th, 7th and 8th spots.

Thanks for the analysis (particularly) of Carlton's Draw. I could be wrong but I think Carlton have been overhyped and Western Bulldogs dismissed far too early. Carlton should have lost to the Bulldogs and were also lucky against Hawthorn (helped by a couple of very doubtful late umpiring decisions). Their defence is very shaky IMO. I don't think many people think Hawthorn are going to even make the 8 and is Carlton's form any better than Hawthorn's or Collingwood's for that matter? The Bulldogs dominated the Swans everywhere but on the scoreboard so why is everyone suggesting the Swans are going to be Top 4 but not the Bulldogs?

I think it's far too early to make any predictions. If Port beat us (hopefully not) and Carlton the next 2 weeks they're right back in it again. And, stating the obvious,  if they lose those 1 matches they'll be in trouble.

3 hours ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

A few people have accused Carlton of not beating anyone of note.

Last time I checked Bulldogs were a half handy side.

Yes, but they shouldn't have beaten them. If the Bulldogs had shown any sort of exposure they would have run right over Carlton in the last quarter. Richmond didn't turn up in the last quarter. Hawthorn also should have won (apart from a few late non-decisions in Carlton's favour).