https://www.woof.net.au/forum/showthread.php?21214-Western-Bulldogs-vs-Melbourne-2021-analysis

Two supporter groups quietly confident.  Gee they harp on about the round 19 game like it means something.  We were in our Burgo-induced slump and played like garbage and still nearly beat them.  Nobody is mentioning their last three rounds of the H & A season, or the fact the umpires helped them beat Brisbane by a point whereas we flogged them the week prior.

Should be a ripping contest regardless, but using that game as a confidence booster is massive false hope. 

6 minutes ago, BigFez said:

Two supporter groups quietly confident. 

Understandable.
As they say 'You're only as good as your last game."
Both teams flogged the opposition in their Prelims.

They have every right to feel confident. They’re in great form and on a roll filled with confidence. 
They have an amazing midfield and some in form forwards. They can absolutely win it. 

11 minutes ago, Jaded said:

They have every right to feel confident. They’re in great form and on a roll filled with confidence. 
They have an amazing midfield and some in form forwards. They can absolutely win it. 

Well they're in it so they can win it ..... But I doubt it.
We've got the impenetrable backline with 2AAs, inform forward line and amazing midfield with 3AAs.
What no-one mentions is our choking game plan and unrelenting heat on the ball carriers.
 

Edited September 17, 20213 yr by Fork 'em

2 minutes ago, Jaded said:

They have every right to feel confident. They’re in great form and on a roll filled with confidence. 
They have an amazing midfield and some in form forwards. They can absolutely win it. 

100%, but I think the R19 game isn't a good indicator of Demons footy.

They really are blowing bubbles in the bath water. The bit where Bevo comes up with something to crack our system like ‘Batman’ is hilarious.  We know our system and back it.  If we execute it, then any cute tricks wont change things much.  This game will require brilliant execution of our fundamental plan, regardless of what they ‘try’.  Massive pressure on the outlet and the ball carrier, dont over commit to contests and roll through Gawn and Jackson as significant differentiators. Port were rubbish, they scraped past the Lions with help, and looked dodgy leading in. Lets see what they bring.

Well to counter that, Melbourne don't really have any players I would consider super flaky whereas Port have a bunch. I was kind of banking on guys like Amon, Motlop, Rozee, Fantasia etc to have stinkers under pressure as our path to victory and it worked out that way. I look at Melbourne's expected 22 and there really aren't any weak links. It's going to be a grind for 4 quarters and if we do emerge as winners, it'll be a small margin.

As fans, we'll be white knuckling all game I imagine.

This was a quote I liked. There wasn't much ra ra and a lot of thought. One even pointed out the 25 to 11 frees for in our second meeting as a reason they won. 

The weather in the rd19 game was the major factor. They scrubbed kicks inside fifty, forced stoppages and kicked some scrappy goals. The rain made our back structure useless and we had opportunities to win the game. If that’s what they are hanging their hats in, then let them. We also drew with the Hawks the week before and were in a form slump. 

Very similar talk on the Geelong board last week but less confident. Talk of Duncan, Tuohy, Ratagolea etc changes the rnd 23 result etc etc. What did it mean in the end? Nothing.

The rnd 19 game will be nothing like the GF. I’m with David King on this, the rnd 11 and rnd 19 games aren’t great reference points. In fact, the rnd 11 game is probably a better reference.

What are the factors this time in our favour?

- No Josh Bruce, their leading goal kicker (kicked 3 in rnd 19)

- Melb will most likely win contested possession again

- It won’t be a wet game (based on an extended forecast) which means our aerial prowess will be an advantage this time

- We are fitter and in better shape compared to the rnd 19 game.

Factors not in our favour:

- Treloar and Dunkley in the side which extends their midfield rotation, however each player has been down overall with their 2021 output

- Stef Martin playing, however this could be our advantage as Martin is very unfit.

 

Edited September 17, 20213 yr by At the break of Gawn

Both teams are right to feel confident because they're a chance. It's a Grand Final, so you should feel confident .... it's just one game.

They'll be playing against a completely different type of team to any they've played in the finals so far. They've smashed Essendon  and Port in contested possession and were +10 against Brisbane, but we are by far the number 1 contested team team in the league (+17.9 pg .... 2nd best was Geelong's +9.9). Our wins were against the 2nd and 3rd best contested teams and we beat them +30 and +22 in our finals.

The Dogs will need to find a way to use their biggest strength (winning contested possession) against the best contested team in the league, and then find a way to negate our biggest strength (defence and intercepts). If they somehow nullify our intercept game then they just have to overcome all of the other reasons that we should win.

They are a good team, but they will likely need something pretty special to happen to beat us. That's why we're the favourites.

9 minutes ago, At the break of Gawn said:

Very similar talk on the Geelong board last week but less confident. Talk of Duncan, Tuohy, Ratagolea etc changes the rnd 23 result etc etc. What did it mean in the end? Nothing.

The rnd 19 game will be nothing like the GF. I’m with David King on this, the rnd 11 and rnd 19 games aren’t great reference points. In fact, the rnd 11 game is probably a better reference.

What are the factors this time in our favour?

- No Josh Bruce, their leading goal kicker (kicked 3 in rnd 19)

- Melb will most likely win contested possession again

- It won’t be a wet game (based on an extended forecast) which means our aerial prowess will be an advantage this time

- We are fitter and in better shape compared to the rnd 19 game.

Factors not in our favour:

- Treloar and Dunkley in the side which extends their midfield rotation, however each player has been down overall with their 2021 output

- Stef Martin playing, however this could be our advantage as Martin is very unfit.

 

Martin playing is a massive boost for us

We were struggling for form back in round 19. 
Should be a good game, if the umps stay out of it, we should come out on top.

1 hour ago, BigFez said:

Two supporter groups quietly confident.  Gee they harp on about the round 19 game like it means something.  We were in our Burgo-induced slump and played like garbage and still nearly beat them.  Nobody is mentioning their last three rounds of the H & A season, or the fact the umpires helped them beat Brisbane by a point whereas we flogged them the week prior.

Should be a ripping contest regardless, but using that game as a confidence booster is massive false hope. 

Port beat Geelong at Skilled in Round 21, 2007 as well.

Didn't help 'em when the hammer fell on Grand Final day.

been looking forward to this thread

i do like the first reply to the op:

• In the second game we won the free kick count 25-11 which was the main reason why we won that game. 
• Haven't had Dunks, Treloar or Martin in either game which gives us a different look.

we point to our excuses in rd 19 and they point to theirs in round 11, but r11 in particular bares zero relation to the grand final, but you'd think r19 would be closer but it's really not - far more informative to look at the form in finals

both teams love the helter-skelter of high pressure and contest football

they've completely changed their mid rotations (smith playing as a half forward pushing up to the contest, virtually no cba's, etc.)

harmes has actually gone to a high half-forward role for us; he actually made this move in the second half of round 19, and we got on top of footscray but they ran away with it again late

for the prelim, they brought in a ruck who hasn't played in four months

the best tall defender they had in r19 - schache - has been playing forward

i agree with @Jaded - they can win it, so can we; should be a cracker

12 hours ago, BigFez said:

Burgo-induced slump

Please explain

4 minutes ago, Dido said:

Please explain

Training loads. 

Glad to know that some Bulldogs fans know it was 21 v 18 in round 19 as umps were clearly Bulldogs “best players”. Free kicks 25-11 was a disgrace. 

11 minutes ago, Dido said:

Please explain

Apparently Burgo flogs the players around that time to make them primed for finals.  Port Adelaide supporters would bang on about it regularly.

So it comes down to strategic training loads as is indicated by the doggies camp for their slump just before the finals?

 

12 hours ago, adonski said:

Martin playing is a massive boost for us

And Keath has done 2 hammy' since rd 19

10 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

been looking forward to this thread

i do like the first reply to the op:

• In the second game we won the free kick count 25-11 which was the main reason why we won that game. 
• Haven't had Dunks, Treloar or Martin in either game which gives us a different look.

we point to our excuses in rd 19 and they point to theirs in round 11, but r11 in particular bares zero relation to the grand final, but you'd think r19 would be closer but it's really not - far more informative to look at the form in finals

both teams love the helter-skelter of high pressure and contest football

they've completely changed their mid rotations (smith playing as a half forward pushing up to the contest, virtually no cba's, etc.)

harmes has actually gone to a high half-forward role for us; he actually made this move in the second half of round 19, and we got on top of footscray but they ran away with it again late

for the prelim, they brought in a ruck who hasn't played in four months

the best tall defender they had in r19 - schache - has been playing forward

i agree with @Jaded - they can win it, so can we; should be a cracker

Great acknowledgement of the free differential which was amplified by very wet conditions. It had a huge impact.

I think with Jv back to his best as well as our wings back in form it is our midfield that people should be recognizing as the dangerous one.

I also feel like our fwd structure has finally gelled.

2 hours ago, spirit of norm smith said:

Glad to know that some Bulldogs fans know it was 21 v 18 in round 19 as umps were clearly Bulldogs “best players”. Free kicks 25-11 was a disgrace. 

Yes I’m also glad there’s some acknowledgment of the umps’ influence in Rd 19. It stood out like dogs’ balls, along with our poor conversion and The Bont (and his goals from forward 50 stoppages). 

Can’t see the Doggies continuing their dream run with the umps in finals (last game v Port was the first time in 9 or so finals that they’ve had less frees than the opposition - incredible). They’re not the romantic story this time around, despite their best efforts to portray hardship on the path to the GF and invoke supposed class differences & stereotypes between the two clubs and supporter groups.

Let’s smash ‘em, and smash ‘em early. We’re the better team.

My Friday night football was rewatching R19. We would win that 8/10 times.

Inside 50s were 55-51 to them.  Probably 10-15 of theirs were directly from free kicks in the midfield.

We had 24 scoring shots to 21.  Tracc and BB in the first half had shockers missing everything.

They got 2 goals from soft frees, and we gave up some soft goals from stoppages.

We won contested ball by 23. Probably 40 if free kicks removed.

BB and TMac looked dangerous against their short defence. On a dry evening I’ll back one of them or LJ/Max to get off the leash. Great if they all get off the leash.

Smith went head to head with Tracc for a lot of the game.  If that happens in the GF then I like that matchup for us. Tracc could easily win the Norm Smith. Our zone defence and Viney/Harmes at stoppages will cover Smith better than their defence.

It looked like our pressure was a bit down, like it was for all of R13-R19.  Especially noticeable that Daniel had a free run. Our pressure is back. 

If both teams bring the same game plan and effort on a dry night, I reckon we win by 20-30 points. The dogs have shown they can’t handle pressure around the ball (Richmond, us, Hawks), so if we bring real heat, I can see a no contest. Ports abysmal effort is masking a few issues for the dogs.

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Watson11 said:

My Friday night football was rewatching R19. We would win that 8/10 times.

Inside 50s were 55-51 to them.  Probably 10-15 of theirs were directly from free kicks in the midfield.

We had 24 scoring shots to 21.  Tracc and BB in the first half had shockers missing everything.

They got 2 goals from soft frees, and we gave up some soft goals from stoppages.

We won contested ball by 23. Probably 40 if free kicks removed.

BB and TMac looked dangerous against their short defence. On a dry evening I’ll back one of them or LJ/Max to get off the leash. Great if they all get off the leash.

Smith went head to head with Tracc for a lot of the game.  If that happens in the GF then I like that matchup for us. Tracc could easily win the Norm Smith. Our zone defence and Viney/Harmes at stoppages will cover Smith better than their defence.

It looked like our pressure was a bit down, like it was for all of R13-R19.  Especially noticeable that Daniel had a free run. Our pressure is back. 

If both teams bring the same game plan and effort on a dry night, I reckon we win by 20-30 points. The dogs have shown they can’t handle pressure around the ball (Richmond, us, Hawks), so if we bring real heat, I can see a no contest. Ports abysmal effort is masking a few issues for the dogs.

 

 

 

100% agree with this. If it’s not a wet night on Saturday, I think we’ll win by 5-6 goals.