Danger period lies ahead ...

[DubDee 21,954]

7 hours ago, John Crow Batty said:

In the next three rounds

PA vs Cats, WC vs Tigers, Cats vs Bulldogs, Lions vs Cats, PA vs Swans and WC vs Bulldogs. Big three rounds for us with winnable games and chasers doing it tough. 

 

yes will be an interesting few weeks!  Finally the Cats have some tough games. I hope and expect them to lose all 3

[Kozzie4PM 765]

We'll win the next three by between 18 and 34 - same as always. 

And as someone above said - the tough run home is ideal prep for finals.

[DubDee 21,954]

I only thing I would not is that some players are looking a but sore/tired.  So it is perfect timing for a 10 day break and then the bye. Also because the players can hopefully go home and spend time with family to recharge mentally as well as physically.

The coaches job over the bye will be to manage the player's mindset and to re-set as if we are 0-0.  go hard for all games.  we have achieved nothing yet.

Given we have only Viney out injured and we have this rest period coming up, we are in a terrific position to win ~18 games and finish top 2.

[Northern Summer 292]

8 hours ago, Doug Reemer said:

Yes Danger games sure, but now we only need to split the last 10 to finish top 2.

Not really. We really need to go 7-3, if very lucky 6-4 on percentage, to ensure it.

[Pates 9,556]

Fact of the matter is every week is a danger game, it’s a danger for the “Melbourne of old” to return. We were off against Adelaide and they were up for a fight, that was all it took for us to lose. 

The beauty of it is that every week is a new challenge and I really feel that internally the club is keeping their focus on the immediate challenges week to week, there’s no looking ahead or mentioning the F word. 

No doubt the Pies will be up and about against us, they’re having a shocking year but off the back of a very spirited win I can see them being very keen to knock us down a peg. So the answer is simple, always be up for the fight, expect nothing but the best week in week out not only from the opposition but every picked Melbourne player. 

I really think that as annoying as the loss to Adelaide was, it could end up being one of the best things for the group. 

[Mazer Rackham 14,970]

How many times in the past have we played a top team, put everything into it, only to be pipped by 2 or 3 goals. Then we'd say: "well, that wasn't a bad effort. After all, they're a top team!"

The reverse is going to happen to us now, and already has. Teams will throw everything at us. We're not going to steamroll everyone.

Back in the past, sometimes everything would go right and we'd squeak in a win against one of these top teams, and we'd be on top of the world. Same thing in reverse will happen to us, and already has. That's football.

Collingwood might win. It's tailor-made for them. But it won't be a trend, for them or us. We're going to keep on winning more than we lose. Enjoy the ride.

[titan_uranus 23,200]

9 hours ago, Northern Summer said:

Not really. We really need to go 7-3, if very lucky 6-4 on percentage, to ensure it.

I looked into this a couple of weeks back.

Most years 15-7 gets you top 4 (West Coast in 2019 and the Dogs in 2016 were exceptions). So that's a 4-6 record from here to finish top 4.

As to top 2, in the last three completed seasons a 16-6 record gets you 2nd if you have a good percentage. Here is the top 3 in the last 10 full length seasons:

1. 2019 - Geelong 16-6, Brisbane 16-6, Richmond 16-6
2. 2018 - Richmond 18-4, West Coast 16-6, Collingwood 15-7
3. 2017 - Adelaide 15-6-1, Geelong 15-6-1, Richmond 15-7
4. 2016 - Sydney 17-5, Geelong 17-5, Hawthorn 17-5
5. 2015 - Fremantle 17-5, West Coast 16-5-1, Hawthorn 16-6
6. 2014 - Sydney 17-5, Hawthorn 17-5, Geelong 17-5
7. 2013 - Hawthorn 19-3, Geelong 18-4, Fremantle 16-5-1
8. 2012 - Hawthorn 17-5, Adelaide 17-5, Sydney 16-6
9. 2011 - Collingwood 20-2, Geelong 19-3, Hawthorn 18-4
10. 2010 - Collingwood 17-4-1, Geelong 17-5, St Kilda 15-6-1

You can see that in 8 of the 10 seasons, 17-5 gets you into 2nd. Hawthorn in 2016, Geelong in 2014 and Hawthorn in 2011 are the only times a side has had that record or better and missed. And 2013 and 2011 are the only two years in which 2nd had a better record than 16-6.

Based on that, if we go 5-5 from here and don't shed too much percentage, we're a small chance to finish top 2, but if we go 6-4 from here we're a near-certainty.

[monoccular 16,645]

17 hours ago, Smokey said:

Only a Melbourne supporter could identify a "danger period" in the fixture after we're 11-1 lol 

Every game is a danger game - strangely, I thought that in the Adelaide game even when we got 15 or so points ahead.  Just didn't look focussed, or maybe better said, not organised.  I wondered even if there was some bug (not Covid of course !) going around.

 

[Jumping Jack Clennett 1,662]

I'm worried...... this QB  is their grand final.   Nothing else to look forward to, for them.

Edited June 7, 2021 by Jumping Jack Clennett
clarification

[Robbie57 1,996]

19 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

Why is the SCG a problem for us? Why are we going to struggle defending less space? If the Dogs couldn't switch around our zone at Marvel, how will Collingwood?

 

Living in Sydney I have seen a lot of games at the SCG. It seems short end to end and wide (except for the forward pockets). My swans friends claim the 50 is actually 48. Whilst I doubt that it certainly feels short. 

Our defence is predicated on judging the flow of the ball into the defensive area. The SCG does not offer the luxury of any time if the ball is coming down the guts. And to my eye you often see goals that seem to be kicked after one handball from the centre bounce. Thus owning the corridor will be super important. 

Ps: does anyone know when tickets go on sale?

 

[Dee Zephyr 18,241]

5 minutes ago, Robbie57 said:

Ps: does anyone know when tickets go on sale?

Ticketek today - Member pre-sale at 2pm, General public at 4pm.

Cheer loud Robbie.

[Robbie57 1,996]

2 hours ago, Dee Zephyr said:

Ticketek today - Member pre-sale at 2pm, General public at 4pm.

Cheer loud Robbie.

thanks I haven't had an email from the club, strange. 

 

[Dee Zephyr 18,241]

15 minutes ago, Robbie57 said:

thanks I haven't had an email from the club, strange. 

 

Sorry, forgot to mention the info is from an MFC site article on QB ticketing. 

[Marty 419]

12 hours ago, Mazer Rackham said:

How many times in the past have we played a top team, put everything into it, only to be pipped by 2 or 3 goals. Then we'd say: "well, that wasn't a bad effort. After all, they're a top team!"

The reverse is going to happen to us now, and already has. Teams will throw everything at us. We're not going to steamroll everyone.

Back in the past, sometimes everything would go right and we'd squeak in a win against one of these top teams, and we'd be on top of the world. Same thing in reverse will happen to us, and already has. That's football.

Collingwood might win. It's tailor-made for them. But it won't be a trend, for them or us. We're going to keep on winning more than we lose. Enjoy the ride.

Spot on! And adding to that.

We haven’t been consistent for long enough for bottom teams to fear us. They go into games remembering the Melbourne of the last 2 years.

Where as they go into games against Richmond, subconsciously knowing they have little chance. Or going into games against Bulldogs or Brisbane thinking “If they get a run on. It could get really ugly”

 

Based on that, I believe we’ve been quiet composed and mature in some of those close games this year!

[DubDee 21,954]

3 hours ago, titan_uranus said:

I looked into this a couple of weeks back.

Most years 15-7 gets you top 4 (West Coast in 2019 and the Dogs in 2016 were exceptions). So that's a 4-6 record from here to finish top 4.

As to top 2, in the last three completed seasons a 16-6 record gets you 2nd if you have a good percentage. Here is the top 3 in the last 10 full length seasons:

1. 2019 - Geelong 16-6, Brisbane 16-6, Richmond 16-6
2. 2018 - Richmond 18-4, West Coast 16-6, Collingwood 15-7
3. 2017 - Adelaide 15-6-1, Geelong 15-6-1, Richmond 15-7
4. 2016 - Sydney 17-5, Geelong 17-5, Hawthorn 17-5
5. 2015 - Fremantle 17-5, West Coast 16-5-1, Hawthorn 16-6
6. 2014 - Sydney 17-5, Hawthorn 17-5, Geelong 17-5
7. 2013 - Hawthorn 19-3, Geelong 18-4, Fremantle 16-5-1
8. 2012 - Hawthorn 17-5, Adelaide 17-5, Sydney 16-6
9. 2011 - Collingwood 20-2, Geelong 19-3, Hawthorn 18-4
10. 2010 - Collingwood 17-4-1, Geelong 17-5, St Kilda 15-6-1

You can see that in 8 of the 10 seasons, 17-5 gets you into 2nd. Hawthorn in 2016, Geelong in 2014 and Hawthorn in 2011 are the only times a side has had that record or better and missed. And 2013 and 2011 are the only two years in which 2nd had a better record than 16-6.

Based on that, if we go 5-5 from here and don't shed too much percentage, we're a small chance to finish top 2, but if we go 6-4 from here we're a near-certainty.

nice analysis.

5-5 gets us Top 2 for sure.  Especially this year as there is only one other team with a real chance to get to 17 wins. Geelong/Bears/Port only dropping 1-2 games for the rest of the season is very unlikely

[titan_uranus 23,200]

1 minute ago, DubDee said:

nice analysis.

5-5 gets us Top 2 for sure.  Especially this year as there is only one other team with a real chance to get to 17 wins. Geelong/Bears/Port only dropping 1-2 games for the rest of the season is very unlikely

Their respective runs home:

1. Dogs: Geelong (in Geelong), West Coast (in Perth), North, Sydney, Gold Coast, Adelaide, us, Essendon, Hawthorn, Port
2. Geelong: Port (in Adelaide), Dogs, Brisbane (in Brisbane), Essendon, Carlton, Fremantle (in Perth), Richmond, North, GWS, St Kilda, us
3. Port: Geelong, Gold Coast, Sydney, Hawthorn, us, St Kilda, Collingwood, GWS (away), Adelaide, Carlton, Dogs
4. Brisbane: North, Geelong, Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond (away), Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Fremantle (in Perth), Collingwood, West Coast.

So Brisbane has only three games left against the current top 8, Port has four, Geelong and the Dogs both have five. We have four (Port and West Coast away, Geelong in Geelong and the Dogs). Brisbane's run home is very favourable, with most of its road games being easy (Richmond is its only away game against a top 8 side).

Our fate is very much in our hands. The more of those games against the Dogs, Port and Geelong that we win, the harder it gets for them to find the wins elsewhere to pass us. But we're only two games in front of them all, so if we drop those games, we open the door for any slip ups (e.g. losing to West Coast in Perth).

[wonnabeeri 245]

On 6/7/2021 at 11:50 AM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Collingwood will cause us all sorts of problems at a tricky and tight venue. We need to treat them as a side that finished 6th last year and have been more than competitive in the last 3 weeks.

We haven't been able to able to stamp our authority early in games against bottom 6 sides, and it's either caused us huge scares or indeed our only loss for the season.

It's clear to me that the players aren't as mentally switched on and stimulated against the lower sides than the big guns.

They literally kicked 1 goal in three quarters at the scg a few weeks ago.

[jumbo returns 6,619]

Pfftt!

Puh-lease!

[Fork 'em 6,629]

No doubt we'll win some and we'll lose some over the rest of the season.
But we just gotta make sure we beat forken Essendon.
Hate them plicks with a passion.



 

Edited June 8, 2021 by Fork 'em

[Mel Bourne 3,990]

I really wouldn’t worry. I’ve run the last twelve rounds’ stats through an aggregator, and it seems we are on schedule to win 147 of the next 150 matches. 

Edited June 8, 2021 by Mel Bourne

[Cassiew 1,874]

I’m hoping that win took a lot out of Collingwood and they’ll be unprepared for another tough slog 

[Macca 16,174]

Way more concerned about how we perform @West Coast,  @Port,  @Geelong & vs Bulldogs

Split that lot 2 & 2 or go 3 &1 and that's a good/very good result.  Go 4 & 0 against those 4 and the 'lid' will be nowhere to be seen

Against the others we might have an off day or 2 but 1 off day is somewhat acceptable if we only lose 1 against the big 4.

That would give the team a 19 & 3 record (at worst) and a top 2 position on the ladder

We can speculate all we like but the club of course needs to look at the next match only ... apart from the scouting done on future games

But losing to Collingwood will just never do!

Edited June 8, 2021 by Macca

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,588]

On 6/7/2021 at 2:28 PM, Superunknown said:

Collingwood were very unCollingwood against the CarrionEaters. I expect normal programming to resume this week. Especially with our back pressure. **
 

** Superunknown takes no responsibility for the lack of normal programming resumption.

this is our best flag chance in years with our team , game, draw and WL to date. We can beat Port and the Eagles I think. Bombers could be a good game. 

Lol ?

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,588]

Sorry, can we please put this theory of the team taking lower teams lightly to bed now??!

I really don't think this is a big issue mentally for the players any more (though it seems to persist perpetually with many of our supporters).

That the team isn't putting away lowly teams early (or even until mid way through the last quarter in many instances) does somewhat irk me as a supporter, because I'd like to enjoy some stress free, fun filled game day thrashings of opposition for once.  However I've seen enough of the team this season to have confidence and belief that our lack of putting big breaks on teams early isn't because our players are taking the game easy or the opposition lightly. 

My suspension is that our general lack of early prolific scoring is more because we are valuing our defensive game more than attacking and hence why asides from Hawthorn we've hardly won a game by more than 30 points, but most of them never really look like letting the opposition back into games late either.  Conversely a more attacking team like the Bulldogs might blow the odd weak team with poor defense out of the water, but have been shown to struggle against the better defensive units like us and Richmond.

I also don't see too many blowouts in games between other teams this season either, outside of teams playing the Bulldogs, (and/or St Kilda who have been woeful on occations) which I think speaks to the closeness of the competition generally.

In short (unlike this post), I think we have a systems based less frills game style, one which plays the percentages of beating most sides most of the time, rather than having games of absolute dominance, but others where we strugle to genuinely stay in the contest.

It's also possible (and I hope that it eventates) that over the remainder of the season, that we also hone the attacking part of our game, whilst maintaining our defensive stability and list health.  If that occurs, then I think we would go from being a very solid top 4 team, to one that just about unbeatable come finals, like some dominant premiers of years gone by have been.  Gee that would be something.

Edited June 8, 2021 by Rodney (Balls) Grinter

[monoccular 16,645]

4 hours ago, Mel Bourne said:

I really wouldn’t worry. I’ve run the last twelve rounds’ stats through an aggregator, and it seems we are on schedule to win 147 of the next 150 matches. 

As long as at least four of them are GFs I won’t worry too much.