COVID & AFL 2021

[ManDee 7,077]

19 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

England, UK, Spain, Italy etc?

Very funny Super, I am interested in the empirical data. All sorts of people with all sorts of views including me come to conclusions based on information gathered, often they go on to share their opinions. I don't think you can know too much.

I thought Little Goffy was making some valid points but that one statement seemed more opinion than fact. But I could be wrong.

Edited June 29, 2021 by ManDee
Rider added

[Macca 16,173]

41 minutes ago, Superunknown said:

I don't think n=30 and n=6 is a particularly compelling sample size: a biostatistician may wish to correct me there though.

In terms of a group of people gathered at one indoor location for a prolonged period it can be. 

Another bigger sample size could have other variables where people don't come in contact with each other ... like a sporting event or such like

But the gist of my point was not the technicalities rather the slow uptake on vaccination.  It's fair to say that a similar but bigger sample size could eventuate but we might have to wait months for that to happen

In the meantime, we live on a knive edge unless one is on the other side of the argument (nothing to see here people)

Where do you stand on compulsory vaccination?  I'm not necessarily for it but if that measure was brought in then I would accept it as a 'greater good' ruling

And it might come to that if the public doesn't get a move on with regards to getting vaccinated. 

If not, we may well being going in and out of lockdowns for at least the next 2 years.  Or longer

Without the masses being vaccinated endeavouring to keep the delta varient confined to one State or another will require a very big dose of luck when considering the shoddy quarantine conditions

Edited June 29, 2021 by Macca

[old dee 22,852]

Nothing to do with covid or football but the writers of media headlines never cease to amuse / annoy me.

Today after Serene loss at Wimbledon “ World devastated  by Serene heartbreak”

No it is not,  half the world probably doesn’t know who she is or cares that a tennis player lost a match when their loved ones are dying of Covid. At least half of the rest are either not interested in tennis or don’t like her ( count me amongst that lot ). 
So the headline is rubbish. 

[Slartibartfast 15,761]

I've read a lot of this thread and in the main it's a good reasonable read.  I've one question and one observation.

Without getting political what is the criticism of the rollout?  Is it that we backed the wrong horse or didn't spread our risk?  Is it that we have vaccines and aren't distributing them or is it the poor messaging?  Or something else? 

My view is all over 60 should get vaccinated.  I'm over 60 and have had the first dose.  I was (obviously) aware of the issues but took the view that as a communtiy we have a responsibility to that community.  As a country we can't get back to anywhere near normal unless we are vaccinated.  Therefore just do it.  IMO those not getting vaccinated are selfish but that's understandable.  They are selfish because of the pain and suffering they are inflicting on others in so many ways that have been well publicised for so long.

I also think that the reporting of COVID is wrong.  We should be reporting deaths and hospitalizations rather than cases.  What would our reaction be if we reported the flu, colds or pheumonia the same way?  We need to get our head around the idea that there is a potentially deadly virus out there that will be around for our lifetimes.  By not getting vaccinated we let that virus be more active and mutate into more dangerous variants.

Basically my view is we need to act as a country and not a bunch of  individuals.  This is a war, there will be casualities.

FTR many of my 60* friends are waiting to get vaccinated.  It's their right.

[old dee 22,852]

6 minutes ago, Macca said:

In terms of a group of people gathered at one indoor location for a prolonged period it can be. 

Another bigger sample size could have other variables where people don't come in contact with each other ... like a sporting event or such like

But the gist of my point was not the technicalities rather the slow uptake on vaccination

Where do you stand on compulsory vaccination?  I'm not necessarily for it but if that measure was brought in then I would accept it as a 'greater good' ruling

And it might come to that if the public doesn't get a move on with regards to getting vaccinated. 

If not, we may well being going in and out of lockdowns for at least the next 2 years.  Or longer

Without the masses being vaccinated endeavouring to keep the delta varient confined to one State or another will require a very big dose of luck when considering the shoddy quarantine conditions

A  major problem that I see with the slow rate of vaccination is the lack of deaths in the community in Australia. Our initial lockdown has seen very few cases in the scheme of things compared to the rest of the world. As a result people by and large have not lost members of their extended family. It has not touched them unlike overseas. Then add the government on again off again advice and large percentage of the population don’t see the need to rush after the their PM told them it is not a race. 

[ManDee 7,077]

5 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

.....

I also think that the reporting of COVID is wrong.  We should be reporting deaths and hospitalizations rather than cases.  What would our reaction be if we reported the flu, colds or pheumonia the same way?  We need to get our head around the idea that there is a potentially deadly virus out there that will be around for our lifetimes.  By not getting vaccinated we let that virus be more active and mutate into more dangerous variants.

....

The problem with that Bob is that in Australia this year it is zero deaths due to Covid, not a nightly newsworthy story and may send a mixed message considering more have died after taking AZ vaccine.

Edited June 29, 2021 by ManDee

[Superunknown 3,311]

7 minutes ago, Macca said:

In terms of a group of people gathered at one indoor location for a prolonged period it can be. 

Another bigger sample size could have other variables where people don't come in contact with each other ... like a sporting event or such like

But the gist of my point was not the technicalities rather the slow uptake on vaccination

Where do you stand on compulsory vaccination?  I'm not necessarily for it but if that measure was brought in then I would accept it as a 'greater good' ruling

And it might come to that if the public doesn't get a move on with regards to getting vaccinated. 

If not, we may well being going in and out of lockdowns for at least the next 2 years.  Or longer

Without the masses being vaccinated endeavouring to keep the delta varient confined to one State or another will require a very big dose of luck when considering the shoddy quarantine conditions

Agree on broader point, it is a telling vignette, but you're right, doesn't take into account confounding variables, health factors, heterogeneity etc.

On compulsory - not sure my opinion is all that important but since you asked - I think you can make a good case for compulsory vaccination in certain settings, particularly where there are alternative placement options for those who don't want to. ie in health you can take people off frontline/their substantive role and put them in admin. Same for airlines. RACF is a bit harder with limited back office roles (I think?) and I think I heard the relevant union is about to test that case.

Another issue is Morrison's diktat/edict that all RACF must be vaccinated by Sept - as Shergold on RN Breakfast said this morning - that's ok but where is the Pfizer supply (as most of the workers in RACF are under 60). Good example of another Morrison announceable running ahead of the practicalities.

The complicating factor here is a lack of a no fault compensation scheme for those who are compelled/or wish to have AZ. I can understand the reticence and such a scheme might provide some more comfort to those.

There are other levers to pull for rates - I like Qantas' FF points/reward announcement for those vaccinated. I think you could consider only letting those who were vaccinated attend certain events (eg Bluesfest, bigger weddings) or venues (bars etc) have some more freedoms in restrictions (ie I need to get to Ray Drummond at Burleigh for new clubs ;D )....

 

[old dee 22,852]

5 minutes ago, Baghdad Bob said:

I've read a lot of this thread and in the main it's a good reasonable read.  I've one question and one observation.

Without getting political what is the criticism of the rollout?  Is it that we backed the wrong horse or didn't spread our risk?  Is it that we have vaccines and aren't distributing them or is it the poor messaging?  Or something else? 

My view is all over 60 should get vaccinated.  I'm over 60 and have had the first dose.  I was (obviously) aware of the issues but took the view that as a communtiy we have a responsibility to that community.  As a country we can't get back to anywhere near normal unless we are vaccinated.  Therefore just do it.  IMO those not getting vaccinated are selfish but that's understandable.  They are selfish because of the pain and suffering they are inflicting on others in so many ways that have been well publicised for so long.

I also think that the reporting of COVID is wrong.  We should be reporting deaths and hospitalizations rather than cases.  What would our reaction be if we reported the flu, colds or pheumonia the same way?  We need to get our head around the idea that there is a potentially deadly virus out there that will be around for our lifetimes.  By not getting vaccinated we let that virus be more active and mutate into more dangerous variants.

Basically my view is we need to act as a country and not a bunch of  individuals.  This is a war, there will be casualities.

FTR many of my 60* friends are waiting to get vaccinated.  It's their right.

Agree BB, as I have said before I have friends who don’t travel and are basically stay at homes who are waiting Pfizer. I think they are silly but there you are. 

[Superunknown 3,311]

For what little my opinion is worth:

Quote

Without getting political what is the criticism of the rollout?  Is it that we backed the wrong horse or didn't spread our risk?  Is it that we have vaccines and aren't distributing them or is it the poor messaging?  Or something else?

Procurement - picking AZ due to the political connection between Morrison and one of the execs at AZ. Rejecting Pfizer and Moderna's offers last year (July) of priority access to whatever volume we needed and waiting till Oct to order Pfizer. Novavax still not ready. Should have signed as many deals as possible to mitigate risk.

Rollout - should have handed over to the states. The C'th is not in the business of logistics, they're funders. Look how organised NSWH is. The feds still cannot get RACF, quarantine/transport workers, vaccinated. Total shambles. "I don't hold the needle mate".

Messaging has been an absolute case study in how not to do public health messaging.

Quote

IMO those not getting vaccinated are selfish but that's understandable.  They are selfish because of the pain and suffering they are inflicting on others in so many ways that have been well publicised for so long.

A useful way to categorise people is: understandably hesitant (note; poor messaging/constant changing), the normal wait-and-see, those who simply can't get Pfizer (there are a lot), those who are ineligible (under 40s for Pfizer).

Quote

I also think that the reporting of COVID is wrong.  We should be reporting deaths and hospitalizations rather than cases

Deaths/hospitalisations will be reported once a substantial proportion are vaccinated. At present, with low vax rates, cases are more useful as a pointer to risk.

[Diamond_Jim 11,746]

Saw a stat in the last few days for vaccine rates of the over 60 groups

60-70....around 60%

70 plus ... around 66%

This is the group we should be ramping up the fear/encouragement process on

A BBO shiraz for the second dose or perhaps being limited to Collingwood games for the unvaccinated.

[daisycutter 28,508]

3 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

A BBO shiraz for the second dose or perhaps being limited to Collingwood games for the unvaccinated.

outstanding suggestion, dj

[old dee 22,852]

15 hours ago, old dee said:

Over the last 10 weeks we have the following from the Federal Government. 

AZ is a good vaccine.

People under 40 should not take it.

People under 50 should not take it.

People under 60 should not take it.

Yesterday it is a good vaccine everyone from 20 up should gets shots and we will indemnify any doctor who gets sued when they   recommended   it.

They wonder why take up rates are poor, it must go down as the worst public health exercise in Australian history.

Here we go again, QLD premier saying under 40's should follow QLD advice re Astra vaccine not the PM.

 

 

[Diamond_Jim 11,746]

1 minute ago, old dee said:

Here we go again, QLD premier saying under 40's should follow QLD advice re Astra vaccine not the PM.

 

 

Yep... She of "I saved the AFL" fame leaves a lot to be desired.

It'll play well in Queensland though

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,151]

SA has had a family test positive. Lockdown imminent.

We play Port over there, likely on Friday week.

Could it moved to VIC or TAS (but hopefully VIC)??

 

Edited June 30, 2021 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Diamond_Jim 11,746]

2 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

SA has had a family test positive. Lockdown imminent.

We play Port on Friday week.

 

Victoria... The Covid Free State (well almost)

[Demonland 64,807]

 

[ManDee 7,077]

7 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Victoria... The Covid Free State (well almost)

The Platinum standard!  

Good or bad luck is at play, aided and abetted by good & bad management.

[Northern Summer 292]

Thanks to Premier Marshmellow we can all book flights to Hobart next weekend

[Jaded No More 57,820]

6 minutes ago, Northern Summer said:

Thanks to Premier Marshmellow we can all book flights to Hobart next weekend

Not if Tassie shuts their border to SA. 

My bet is that the AFL will get both SA  teams into Victoria as early as today, before the borders close and we see a Victorian hub for the next 2-3 weeks.

Could we be blessed for once and play Port in Victoria?! Will something finally go right for the city and the team that is Melbourne?! 

[Superunknown 3,311]

28 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Yep... She of "I saved the AFL" fame leaves a lot to be desired.

It'll play well in Queensland though

Can you explain why this is an issue?

The AMA, Hunt, QLD CHO, the NSW CHO (implicitly), have all recommended following current health advice informed by ATAGI.

Here is the current ATAGI advice, dated 17 June 2021: link

[Wadda We Sing 10,685]

I think we should/might play all our games at the G in the leadup to the finals......

Richmond can reopen Punt rd and play there

[Macca 16,173]

The State governments from both sides of politics are taking a hard line approach to lockdowns ... but some are slower/quicker than others to enact those lockdowns

The goal is elimination not containment ... and until we're all vaccinated we can expect more of the same with regards to lockdowns (from the various State governments)

We could (in theory) have another 4 or 5 lockdowns in Victoria alone because of the elimination target. And it could all go on for quite some time

[Jaded No More 57,820]

1 hour ago, Baghdad Bob said:

 

Basically my view is we need to act as a country and not a bunch of  individuals. 

I agree. Too bad the federal government wants to take no responsibility for hotel quarantine, or return travellers, for state borders, or even for something going wrong if you don't follow medical advice and take AZ if you're under 60.

Too much politics between the states. As you say, this is a war. In a war, the federal government resumes all responsibilities. Yet in probably the biggest crisis faced by this country in decades, they are happy to let states run the show.

They sent an intern to the meeting with Pfizer. An intern. They backed AZ because we could make it here. It was all about the dollars. Pfizer came to us with an offer to buy millions of doses last year and we turned it down. Fine, we didn't want to put all our eggs in the one basket. But what have we done since? Built not a single proper quarantine facility, not rushed approval of other highly effective and readily available vaccines like Modera and Novanex, have no shut our international borders, and oh year, have cut off financial support to businesses bleeding money  thanks to this insane elimination strategy. 

I am a liberal voter, always have been, but am disgusting with the federal government. We got lucky in round 1, and so we got lazy. We thought we didn't need to rush to spend money on anything. It's the typical "she'll be right" attitude of Australia. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 13,151]

13 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Not if Tassie shuts their border to SA. 

My bet is that the AFL will get both SA  teams into Victoria as early as today, before the borders close and we see a Victorian hub for the next 2-3 weeks.

Could we be blessed for once and play Port in Victoria?! Will something finally go right for the city and the team that is Melbourne?! 

Yes, good point. TAS like to close their borders as quick as the best of them.

That will be a dream scenario to play Port in VIC. Even Ballarat will suffice.

[Demonland 64,807]

We'll probably have to play Port in Geelong.