2021 Herald Sun Predictions

[The Jackson FIX 3,494]

12 minutes ago, binman said:

Higgins and Smith bring their average age up!

Both are 32, and surely are past peak fitness.

Cameron will help a bit I guess, but given he is a key forward he's not going to be giving their dad's army midfield mids a chop out.

Point taken on fitness being more of a factor this season than last but I just can’t see them falling away... they have an efficient defensive structure ( aren’t one of those teams that runs around manically), they’ve added 3 high-quality players (albeit two of them older) and they play most of their home games at a unique-shaped ground they play significantly better than any other team. Too many tailwinds for them to fall in a ditch...

[trout 385]

A few surprises in there for mine. 
1- Mick Malthouse still has a job in the media.

2- Mick Malthouse didn’t have the Dees for the wooden spoon.

3- Surprised any expert picked us to make the eight quite frankly. Just a much better and safer option to pick another team. Don’t get me wrong I think we can and should make the eight but I am certainly not putting any money on it.

[Bitter but optimistic 22,289]

Bah !! It’s all frog****e until we play some football 

[censored] the experts!! 

[Kev 10,858]

We should do better than last year. We are desperate to prove ourselves, our list has changed for the better and there has been a coaching renewal. 

The draw is also pretty good for us, especially the first third of the season.

Wins will create confidence.

I expect us to go on and win at least 14 games this year. 

Hoping for no losses, though finishing 4th, 5th or 6th is where I realistically see us.

Bold prediction:

Tom Lynch will be rubbed out for 3 weeks because of excessive sooking.

Max Gawn wins the brownlow.

Brisbane versus St kilda grand final.

 

[WERRIDEE 5,637]

MY PREDICTIONS

1 MELBOURNE

2 RICHMOND

3 BRISBANE

4 WESTERN

5 PORT

6 GEELONG

7 CARLTON 

8 FREMANTLE

BROWNLOW : GAWN

COLEMAN : B.BROWN

RISING STAR : LUKE JACKSON

WOODEN SPOON : NORTH

BOLD PREDICTION : YZE WILL COACH COLLINGWOOD WHEN BUCKLEY GETS THE SACK.

Edited March 2, 2021 by WERRIDEE

[spirit of norm smith 16,676]

The “experts” rank us about 8th to 12th in most likelihood.  Without any bias, that’s probably fair enough.  I think we need a fit Ben Brown to make a step up to give us that additional firepower. Our inside 50s are high but conversion over the last 2 years has been severely lacking. 

[BDA 23,048]

6 hours ago, WERRIDEE said:

BOLD PREDICTION : YZE WILL COACH COLLINGWOOD WHEN BUCKLEY GETS THE SACK.

I've just spat my corn flakes all over my computer screen reading that!

I think this should read

BOLD PREDICTION : YZE WILL COACH MELBOURNE WHEN GOODWIN GETS THE SACK.

[Doug Reemer 1,208]

20 hours ago, Demonland said:

Brownlow Medal: Patrick Cripps

Normally you have to be able kick goals and hit targets to win a brownlow?

[Deemania since 56 6,803]

19 hours ago, forever demons said:

It's up to Goodwin to coach and tweak the team

... and listen ...  the inputs and influences of both Yze and Chocko will be the keys to success ...

[La Dee-vina Comedia 17,125]

21 hours ago, Demonland said:

Nakia Cockatoo will finish top 10 in Brisbane's best-and-fairest.

This is Scott Gullan's "Bold Prediction". Really? Any player getting into any team's top 10 in the B&F is an approx 1 in 4 chance. Bold? Hardly!

[NeveroddoreveN 1,034]

18 hours ago, binman said:

I think a huge factor this season will be aerobic fitness.

And it is a factor that works in our favor.

We were super fit coming into last season. Unfortunately the 20 min quarters took away our comparative advantage. 

I think it is a reasonable assumption that we have at least maintained, and hopefully improved our fitness. If this is the case we will be well prepared for the change back to 30 minute quarters.

20% more game time, 10 minutes a quarter of 'red time' and a reduction in interchange rotations will make a huge impact. You could see it in the tigers practice game how the game opened up at the end of each quarter. And just as was often the case last year, even with the shorter quarters, we were at our best late. 

I thought the Cats would do ok last year, in large part because the shorter quarters would mitigate against having such an old team. I predict the converse will be true this year and they will be found out big time. I don't think they will make the eight. 

As much as i would like to the Cats to drop off, just can't see it happening with Hawkins/Cameron, stacked midfield, experience all over the ground, and of course a favourable draw with plenty of home games.  They will be top 4 again as much as i would like to see them falter and fail. They just seem to know how to win games, ugly or pretty, they get it done.  Have been hoping for years they would drop off with older legs.  It just does not seem to happen as they keep getting talented/experienced players and lets face it their system down at Geelong is A1, and they are a very good team.

[Macca 17,121]

So 14 wins guarantees a finals spot whilst 13 wins probably gets you there.  A team needs to be above average and consistently good just to get to 13 or 14 wins.  You've got to win 2 out of 3 ongoing

We can get there if our forward line fires ... the midfield & defence can be improved upon but it's the forward line that needs to improve dramatically (as a collective)

In modern footy it's easier to defend well (flooding helps enormously) but conversely,  it's much harder to have a functioning forward line these days. 

Coaching the forward line plays a big part especially specialist coaching so Greg Stafford has the job ahead of him.  I reckon he needs help from others as it's a big job for one person

An example of the standard required is how Richmond play total team footy within their own forward line ... something we need to aspire to and achieve

[DeeSpencer 26,648]

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

This is Scott Gullan's "Bold Prediction". Really? Any player getting into any team's top 10 in the B&F is an approx 1 in 4 chance. Bold? Hardly!

He hasn’t played in years and currently is out with a hamstring. It’s a bit like predicting Bennell would be top 10 in our B+F last year but in a strong team ie. 2018

[DeeSpencer 26,648]

1 hour ago, Macca said:

We can get there if our forward line fires ... the midfield & defence can be improved upon but it's the forward line that needs to improve dramatically (as a collective)

In modern footy it's easier to defend well (flooding helps enormously) but conversely,  it's much harder to have a functioning forward line these days. 

I agree it’s really tough to have a high octane big scoring forward line. Consistently scoring against the top sides is a huge challenge.

But I’m not so sure our forward line has such a huge amount of room for improvement compared with our other lines. The way the midfield drops away against good sides compared with the way they’ve often stomped on lesser sides is the initial fix I want to see. If our mids can lift the way they play against the best sides I think we’ve got enough to be a solid finals team. 

[old dee 24,072]

13 hours ago, Bitter but optimistic said:

Bah !! It’s all frog****e until we play some football 

[censored] the experts!! 

Media space filler Bbo. So many media people with so much space to fill. 

[Macca 17,121]

4 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I agree it’s really tough to have a high octane big scoring forward line. Consistently scoring against the top sides is a huge challenge.

But I’m not so sure our forward line has such a huge amount of room for improvement compared with our other lines. The way the midfield drops away against good sides compared with the way they’ve often stomped on lesser sides is the initial fix I want to see. If our mids can lift the way they play against the best sides I think we’ve got enough to be a solid finals team. 

Good forwards stand out and we don't have them.  Even a star-studded midfield would not be able to overcome a forward line such as what we've largely had since the Neitz era

When we played finals under Northey,  Daniher & Balme we had a number of standout forwards

However,  circumstances can change from year to year and a good example of that was 2018 ... T-Mac,  Hogan & Weideman all fired to an extent and our smaller forwards contributed a bit as well (not a lot though)

 

[58er 6,870]

2 minutes ago, DeeSpencer said:

I agree it’s really tough to have a high octane big scoring forward line. Consistently scoring against the top sides is a huge challenge.

But I’m not so sure our forward line has such a huge amount of room for improvement compared with our other lines. The way the midfield drops away against good sides compared with the way they’ve often stomped on lesser sides is the initial fix I want to see. If our mids can lift the way they play against the best sides I think we’ve got enough to be a solid finals team. 

You are ignoring the story of our forward  line since 2018 DS 

We have had multiple entries in but poor conversion from those.

Did you see A snapshot of improvement from last Friday's practice match With greater disposal slicker ball movement and better crumbing and leading patterns plus newbie Kade Chandler an improved Spargs a resurgent Tmac plus Gawny going forward now and again and Fritta looking more assured in conversion.

Thats without BBB Weid Kossie maybe Melkshake plus any new recruits from the 2020 draft. 

it's all about maturity a better game plan and more versatile players and development from younger draftees of last two years 
 

Probsbly doesnt mean we will have a bad day or two but more options is a great improvement.

 

[Diamond_Jim 12,745]

5 minutes ago, Macca said:

Good forwards stand out and we don't have them.  Even a star-studded midfield would not be able to overcome a forward line such as what we've largely had since the Neitz era

When we played finals under Northey,  Daniher & Balme we had a number of standout forwards

However,  circumstances can change from year to year and a good example of that was 2018 ... T-Mac,  Hogan & Weideman all fired to an extent and our smaller forwards contributed a bit as well (not a lot though)

 

Agree

I think many people underestimate the team impact that Richmond have with Riewoldt and Lynch. Geelong may come close with Hawkins and Cameron if they can work together.

[Macca 17,121]

18 minutes ago, Diamond_Jim said:

Agree

I think many people underestimate the team impact that Richmond have with Riewoldt and Lynch. Geelong may come close with Hawkins and Cameron if they can work together.

Cats are well poised despite those who believe they will fall away ... multiple big key forwards who can take grabs & kick goals are priceless

Smaller forwards will often give greater output as a consequence of those big KPF's firing.  The connection is obvious to my way of thinking and often can't be measured by stats

i.e.  Inside 50 count is often largely irrelevant with an underperforming forward line. 

Basics such as playing in front, multiple leads to the hot spots, 2nd & 3rd efforts,  attacking the contest with vigour,  retaining possession,  kicking straight and contested marking are all important factors

So how do we stack up in those areas DJ?  (It's a bit of a rhetorical question ? )

[Roost it far 9,966]

Port Adelaide

Brisbane

Melbourne 

Richmond

St Kilda

Geelong

GWS

Western Bulldogs

Collingwood

Carlton

West Coast

Fremantle

Gold Coast

Sydney

Adelaide

Hawthorn

Essendon

North Melbourne

 

Premiers Melbourne 

Brownlow Don’t care

Norm Smith Clayton Oliver

Coleman Don’t care

 

 

 

[DeeSpencer 26,648]

2 hours ago, 58er said:

You are ignoring the story of our forward  line since 2018 DS 

We have had multiple entries in but poor conversion from those.

I don’t think I am. We scored at will against bad sides in 2018, struggled to score against good teams. It was a reflection of the hot and cold nature of our mids. Last weeks game was a reflection of our mids playing solid footy against a good opponent and the forwards doing well. 

2 hours ago, Macca said:

Good forwards stand out and we don't have them.  Even a star-studded midfield would not be able to overcome a forward line such as what we've largely had since the Neitz era

When we played finals under Northey,  Daniher & Balme we had a number of standout forwards

However,  circumstances can change from year to year and a good example of that was 2018 ... T-Mac,  Hogan & Weideman all fired to an extent and our smaller forwards contributed a bit as well (not a lot though)

It’s not 1994 anymore. The top 4 sides really only had 1 dominant forward each, Rich (Lynch), Port (Dixon), Geel (Hawkins), Bris (Cameron). 

Both grand finalists sent their best midfielders forward at times to attempt to kick goals in finals. 
 

We need at least one tall really up and going, but after that it’s about guys playing their roles. The second or third talls don’t kick 50+ goals these days, they compete, chase, go in the ruck, tag interceptors etc.

[Pickett2Jackson 3,904]

Nobody rates us and why should they?

Its about time this club got a chip on its shoulder and went out and proved the world wrong. More likely that hell freezes over but you just never know.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Pickett2Jackson

[Gawndy the Great 9,011]

Im trying to be optimistic, but i just cannot see us cracking the 8 with Goodwin as Headcoach. I think our forward line will not be able to keep the ball in and will struggle to contest without the two talls. Our defensive transition game will be exposed as it was last year - it may marginally improve, but we just lack in this area. Dont forget the 2-3 games we just throw away when we fail to show up.

Question is at what point do you let him go? 

Edited March 3, 2021 by CYB

[spirit of norm smith 16,676]

5 hours ago, Macca said:

So 14 wins guarantees a finals spot whilst 13 wins probably gets you there.  A team needs to be above average and consistently good just to get to 13 or 14 wins.  You've got to win 2 out of 3 ongoing

We can get there if our forward line fires ... the midfield & defence can be improved upon but it's the forward line that needs to improve dramatically (as a collective)

In modern footy it's easier to defend well (flooding helps enormously) but conversely,  it's much harder to have a functioning forward line these days. 

Coaching the forward line plays a big part especially specialist coaching so Greg Stafford has the job ahead of him.  I reckon he needs help from others as it's a big job for one person

An example of the standard required is how Richmond play total team footy within their own forward line ... something we need to aspire to and achieve

Exactly.  I think we identified the forward firepower as the area of improvement. Sure the midfield skill and pace and delivery needs to get better but our forward line setup and conversion will be our key to where we finish in 2021. 

[Macca 17,121]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

I don’t think I am. We scored at will against bad sides in 2018, struggled to score against good teams. It was a reflection of the hot and cold nature of our mids. Last weeks game was a reflection of our mids playing solid footy against a good opponent and the forwards doing well. 

It’s not 1994 anymore. The top 4 sides really only had 1 dominant forward each, Rich (Lynch), Port (Dixon), Geel (Hawkins), Bris (Cameron). 

Both grand finalists sent their best midfielders forward at times to attempt to kick goals in finals. 
 

We need at least one tall really up and going, but after that it’s about guys playing their roles. The second or third talls don’t kick 50+ goals these days, they compete, chase, go in the ruck, tag interceptors etc.

Who said anyrhing about 1994?

Tigers,  Cats & Eagles have 2 traditional type key forwards and Collingwood would dearly want 2 high calibre KPF's

All 4 teams continue to feature heavily at the pointy end of the season

Not a coincidence

You often deep dive when a more obvious way of analysing footy (especially our team) is staring you in the face

In other words scale it back when applicable

Ain't going to happen now but we could have recruited Lynch & Cameron.  In fact,  the club should always be on the lookout for decent KPF's

And the club has gone down that path in more recent times ... Cook,  Hogan,  Dawes,  Clark,  Watts,  Weideman,  Brown etc etc.  We even had a nibble at Jono Brown

Put Lyon & Neitz types into our forward line right now and we are genuinely challenging for a top 4 spot (ongoing)

 

Edited March 3, 2021 by Macca