TRAINING: Monday 1st February 2021

[daisycutter 29,610]

i was going to go, but it wasn't raining. no challenge.

[In Harmes Way 7,753]

13 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

i was going to go, but it wasn't raining. no challenge.

You should go one harder dc and wait until it snows to really get some cred

[Demon trucker 1,800]

4 hours ago, drdrake said:

A nice little video of some training on the club website.  I hope the players watch this, every time we did the flick handpass over the shoulder it was a turnover.  Can't believe the coaching staff haven't banned this handball.  It is like a 3 point shot in basketball, great when it comes off but really you are only going to hit 10-20%

Well you better tell Steph curry to stop shooting those threes it just doesn't work, only 3 championship, should have 4 really after leading 3 1 in one of those finals

[Demon trucker 1,800]

6 hours ago, spalding said:

Shows we have poor coaching and a VFL quality backline at best,  which will get toweled up by Dixon, Lynch, Hawkins etc.

6-8 wins in 2021 is all we can hope for, with everyone below us except North and Adelaide going straight past us.

Just thought I'd get in before the usual glass half full posters.

Well it better he kicks 6 goals against a VFL Backman then kick none, then we will be in trouble. Generally 1 side is the best 22 and the other is the best of the rest, if brown was playing for the best of the rest, then yes our backline will be no good and is in big trouble.

[waynewussell 5,524]

In the past 3 meetings Dixon averages 1 goal against the Demons, Hawkins averages 1 goal and Lynch averages just over 2... Hardly a respectable outcome against VFL Backmen... I would have to say on that showing that all three are nearing the end!

[dworship 3,342]

1 hour ago, In Harmes Way said:

You should go one harder dc and wait until it snows to really get some cred

Now to just get them to come to Ballarat to train.

[Hellofatime 84]

16 hours ago, spalding said:

Shows we have poor coaching and a VFL quality backline at best,  which will get toweled up by Dixon, Lynch, Hawkins etc.

6-8 wins in 2021 is all we can hope for, with everyone below us except North and Adelaide going straight past us.

Just thought I'd get in before the usual glass half full posters.

Must have been a long to kick 6 goals with that 100 metre walk up to the mark each time.

[Hellofatime 84]

Just now, Hellofatime said:

Must have been a long to kick 6 goals with that 100 metre walk up to the mark each time.

Quarter.

[old55 23,521]

14 hours ago, drdrake said:

A nice little video of some training on the club website.  I hope the players watch this, every time we did the flick handpass over the shoulder it was a turnover.  Can't believe the coaching staff haven't banned this handball.  It is like a 3 point shot in basketball, great when it comes off but really you are only going to hit 10-20%

Dogs won a flag with it.

[The Chazz 4,077]

12 hours ago, don't make me angry said:

Well you better tell Steph curry to stop shooting those threes it just doesn't work, only 3 championship, should have 4 really after leading 3 1 in one of those finals

Ah, the old Steph Curry comeback in a 3-pointer argument.  Generally, the league average for 3-points made is around 1 in 3.  And further to that, of the total rebounds, only 1 in 4 are offensive rebounds.  An interesting side note - the league averages for free throws is around 75%.  Curry is well above league average (no surprise there), consistently hitting 40+% of his 3s, and regularly over 90% of his free throws.

Moral of the story?  Do the basics right.  Players in the NBA, the most elite level of their sport, have a 66% chance of missing a 3-pointer, and when they do, it is 75% likely that the ball will go to the opposition.  Unless you are a freakish talent like Curry, you might as well just walk up and hand the ball to the opposition, then hope that once in 4 times you do it that they drop it and you get it back.

Dr Drake's point about over the head handballs is that it's a low % play with a high risk of turnover, which frustrates me when we can't get the basics right.

Edited February 1, 2021 by The Chazz

[Nelo 813]

2 hours ago, Hellofatime said:

Quarter.

If he kicks 6 goals a game we need to reduce his training loads due to running an extra 6kms a game. 

[Demonland 71,868]

 

[whatwhat say what 22,731]

35 minutes ago, The Chazz said:

Ah, the old Steph Curry comeback in a 3-pointer argument.  Generally, the league average for 3-points made is around 1 in 3.  And further to that, of the total rebounds, only 1 in 4 are offensive rebounds.  An interesting side note - the league averages for free throws is around 75%.  Curry is well above league average (no surprise there), consistently hitting 40+% of his 3s, and regularly over 90% of his free throws.

Moral of the story?  Do the basics right.  Players in the NBA, the most elite level of their sport, have a 66% chance of missing a 3-pointer, and when they do, it is 75% likely that the ball will go to the opposition.  Unless you are a freakish talent like Curry, you might as well just walk up and hand the ball to the opposition, then hope that once in 4 times you do it that they drop it and you get it back.

Dr Drake's point about over the head handballs is that it's a low % play with a high risk of turnover, which frustrates me when we can't get the basics right.

up until the last few years when it became clear what a weapon a 3 point shot was compared to a 2

there's a good ringer article here: https://www.theringer.com/nba/2019/2/27/18240583/3-point-boom-nba-daryl-morey

i guess, ultimately, 3 points will always be worth more than 2, thus the risk-reward ratio is skewed 50% higher to the benefit of shooting a 3 than a mid-range 2

not to mention that - for the most part - the chance of an offensive rebound is far greater off the back of a missed 3 than a missed 2, due to the spread on the floor

the other big change is that so many more players at that elite level are getting what's considered 'wide open' 3 point attempts; the % of players shooting higher % from outside the arc has increased exponentially over the years:

from 22-24 foot (i.e. just beyond the arc) the likelihood of making a shot is insignificantly different from 4-21 feet to make it worthwhile to take the greater risk and earn 50% more points per shot made:

people like the curry brothers, klay thompson, dame lillard etc are freaks when it comes to the long-range shot, but there's good reason as to why it has expanded as the go-to shot from back in the final years of jordan: 

but, back to our side, FOR GOD'S SAKE DON'T HANDBALL OVER YOUR HEAD!!

taking a 3-point shot and handballing over your head are COMPLETELY UNRELATED as far as i am concerned, as the 3-point shot is a scoring attempt, whereas a handball over your head is effectively a no look pass to someone behind you which is just a ludicrous thing to do

i hate seeing our players do it

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,731]

Has ANB changed his body shape dramatically (see pic 15 in the gallery of Training photos) or am I imagining things? He seems much leaner. I wonder whether a change in his role is to follow?

[DeeSpencer 25,629]

1 hour ago, The Chazz said:

Ah, the old Steph Curry comeback in a 3-pointer argument.  Generally, the league average for 3-points made is around 1 in 3.  And further to that, of the total rebounds, only 1 in 4 are offensive rebounds.  An interesting side note - the league averages for free throws is around 75%.  Curry is well above league average (no surprise there), consistently hitting 40+% of his 3s, and regularly over 90% of his free throws.

Moral of the story?  Do the basics right.  Players in the NBA, the most elite level of their sport, have a 66% chance of missing a 3-pointer, and when they do, it is 75% likely that the ball will go to the opposition.  Unless you are a freakish talent like Curry, you might as well just walk up and hand the ball to the opposition, then hope that once in 4 times you do it that they drop it and you get it back.

Dr Drake's point about over the head handballs is that it's a low % play with a high risk of turnover, which frustrates me when we can't get the basics right.

Have you watched basketball in the last decade? Read anything about analytics?

The entire sport has changed to find the most efficient shots which are:

- 3 pointers

- Dunks and layups

- Free throws 

Apart from freakish midrange scorers like Kawhi everything is designed around efficiency. 3 > 2. 35% from 3 beats 50% from 2.

Anyway, back on topic. Pressure has drastically changed afl footy. It’s no longer possible to just string multiple regulation hand balls together and get anywhere. Teams will flood the area and force bad turnovers. 
 

I hate the Hollywood handballing and thing it often should be banned, but the umpires have allowed it. So in the right moment it absolutely has its use and should be trained. Lewis was good at it. Salem is good at it. Jones probably not so much. 
 

But if we keep our shape around the contest and know where the outlets are it’s actually not all that risky. It either works or it gets turnover but it’s in tight and we’ve then got a chance to pressure and cause a more costly turnover.

[DeeSpencer 25,629]

5 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Has ANB changed his body shape dramatically (see pic 15 in the gallery of Training photos) or am I imagining things? He seems much leaner. I wonder whether a change in his role is to follow?

I wouldn’t say dramatically but the crew cut pairs nicely with added definition in his arms and shoulders now he’s fully matured.

He’s always been super fit and really only suited to the high half forward role so I wouldn’t expect a change. But hopefully he can stick more tackles with a more aggressive approach to the contest and tackling. Legally this time too.

[Cards13 9,117]

21 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Has ANB changed his body shape dramatically (see pic 15 in the gallery of Training photos) or am I imagining things? He seems much leaner. I wonder whether a change in his role is to follow?

I noticed that as well but it is a real change over his career, he has gotten bigger and leaner (lost the "puppy fat"). I don't know if he is good enough for midfield minutes but I just think he is wasted as an up and down the ground running fwd. 

[BW511 2,667]

Steven May looks very lean.

Rivers has definitely added some mass, he is a good size!

Edited February 2, 2021 by BW511

[Grimes Times 1,278]

Any handball over your head is a throw unless you grip the ball in your hand.

[The Jackson FIX 3,099]

20 minutes ago, BW511 said:

Steven May looks very lean.

Rivers has definitely added some mass, he is a good size!

Reading about the man on the mark rule change, feels that might suit Rivers running up the ground. Possibly the reason they’ve switched Hunt back as well.

[sue 9,099]

21 minutes ago, Grimes Times said:

Any handball over your head is a throw unless you grip the ball in your hand.

Many handpasses where almost all of the balls momentum comes from the hand holding the ball rather than from the fist are deemed legal these days.  Unfortunately it's a thin dividing line and hard to umpire.  But it might be umpirable to require any over the head handball to require the holding hand to be stationary at the moment off impact.

[durango 2,007]

I believe that the new coaching panel has decided that the players need more speed hence some players have fined down for example ANB Hunt May and TMc so they can play a faster slicker game similar to Richmond.

[old55 23,521]

16 minutes ago, The Jackson 6 said:

Reading about the man on the mark rule change, feels that might suit Rivers running up the ground. Possibly the reason they’ve switched Hunt back as well.

You can see an example of the effect of this rule change in the video from training at 1:00 - Hunt kicking inside at an angle with May stuck static on the mark.

[BW511 2,667]

44 minutes ago, The Jackson 6 said:

Reading about the man on the mark rule change, feels that might suit Rivers running up the ground. Possibly the reason they’ve switched Hunt back as well.

You'd think the move of Hunt to HBF is a direct result of this change. Won't be too many blokes that can catch him with a static start

[The Chazz 4,077]

1 hour ago, DeeSpencer said:

Have you watched basketball in the last decade? Read anything about analytics?

The entire sport has changed to find the most efficient shots which are:

- 3 pointers

- Dunks and layups

- Free throws 

Apart from freakish midrange scorers like Kawhi everything is designed around efficiency. 3 > 2. 35% from 3 beats 50% from 2.

It's an interesting point - I went for a period probably in the early 2000s where I lost some touch with the NBA, after being obsessed with it through the 80s and 90s.  Over the past 5-10 years, I have found that it's a horrific version of what the game used to be like (it's not the only code I'd say that about).

The junior teams that I have coached have frustrated the hell out of me.  The obsession with becoming the next Curry means they want to spend time at training shooting 3s, yet in game time, their lay-up % on a fast break would barely be 50%, and free throws even worse (I still have nightmares about an A grade semi I coached where we were 2 points down, 2 minutes to go, we had 6 foul shots in that last 2 minutes, the opposition never had a shot in that time, and we lost by, you guessed it, 2 points.  Our key shooter took all of those shots and didn't hit one, but refused to practice them at training...).

Statistical analysis in sport is always something I find interesting, but like all stats, you can dress it up to support your beliefs, but at the same time, not tell all of a story.  For example, comparing Offensive/Defensive rebounds from last season to 20 seasons ago, there's a significant drop in offensive rebounds these days, yet there's a significant increase in shots being taken in today's game.  I could easily spin that as the offensive team not positioning themselves in a true rebounding position when a shot goes up, which is likely because of the increase in 3 point attempts made in that time (over double the attempts than what it was 20 years ago), meaning more of the offensive players are planted outside the key.  Would be an interesting topic for a different thread, but I doubt it's one that would be objective on a site like this, mainly because there's no true "right" or "wrong" answer, just how one interprets it (hence why people specialise in the area and get paid big bucks for being good at it!).  

Back to the original post, I didn't go to training yesterday.