2020 Phantom Drafts & Rankings

[old55 21,874]

39 minutes ago, Dannyz said:

Sam Fisher (Swan Districts) has spoken to the MFC Recruitment team. 

https://www.swandistrictsfc.com.au/news/18503/get-to-know-your-new-recruits-–-a-qa-with-sam-fisher

[spirit of norm smith 13,631]

1 hour ago, Dannyz said:

Sam Fisher (Swan Districts) has spoken to the MFC Recruitment team. 

I thought he was very good at Northern Blues in 2019 and competed strongly against AFL listed opponents. I thought he could have earned himself a spot on an AFL list.
Definitely was a good move to the WAFL in 2020 and from the YouTube games I saw this year, he’s got AFL standard skills, build and running power.   One of our options for pick 50 ish imv alongside Mansell or Wehr if we opted for a potential ready to go type player. 

[Whispering_Jack 28,118]

7 hours ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

cal twomey and shifter sheehan have done a mock draft and have us selection jack carroll and conor stone with our two picks

The mock draft you’re referring to was done on this week’s AFL Road to the Draft podcast. The aim was to select players for each club aligning to their list needs. Here’s how it panned out - 

1. Adelaide Riley Thilthorpe
2. Western Bulldogs Jamara Ugle-Hagan *
3. North Logan McDonald
4. Sydney Elijah Hollands
5. Hawthorn Denver Granger Baras 
6. Gold Coast Archie Perkins
7. Essendon Will Phillips 
8. Essendon Oliver Henry 
9. Sydney Braeden Campbell *
10. Port Adelaide Lachie Jones *
11. Essendon Nik Cox  
12. Adelaide Finlay Macrae
13. GWS Giants Zach Reid
14. North Melbourne Heath Chapman 
15. Fremantle Tanner Bruhn
16. GWS Giants Tom Powell
17. Collingwood Brayden Cook
18. Sydney Errol Gulden *
19. GWS Giants Sam Berry 
20. Collingwood Caleb Poulter
21. Richmond Nathan O’Driscoll
22. Collingwood Reef McInnes
23. Melbourne Jack Carroll
24. Melbourne Connor Stone
25. GWS Giants Bailey Laurie
26. St Kilda Jake Bowey

* matched academy bids

LISTEN: First-round mock draft based on club needs

[whatwhat say what 20,406]

i can't believe sydney won't go for a key defender in granger-barras if he's available at their first pick

[BAMF 3,920]

On 11/29/2020 at 9:04 PM, Nascent said:

Sorry, its probably not exactly what you were after but it's the best I can do at this point. Perhaps someone with good mail might be able to give more insight into our possible draft selections @Yokozuna

Great effort @Nascent very much appreciated.

[Demon trucker 1,800]

5 hours ago, adonski said:

Geez Josh Kelly is a bit of a myth isn't he

The most over rated player ever, has he been a better player then Salem? Kelly been injured a lot too.

Edited December 1, 2020 by don't make me angry

[spirit of norm smith 13,631]

3 hours ago, Whispering_Jack said:

The mock draft you’re referring to was done on this week’s AFL Road to the Draft podcast. The aim was to select players for each club aligning to their list needs. Here’s how it panned out - 

1. Adelaide Riley Thilthorpe
2. Western Bulldogs Jamara Ugle-Hagan *
3. North Logan McDonald
4. Sydney Elijah Hollands
5. Hawthorn Denver Granger Baras 
6. Gold Coast Archie Perkins
7. Essendon Will Phillips 
8. Essendon Oliver Henry 
9. Sydney Braeden Campbell *
10. Port Adelaide Lachie Jones *
11. Essendon Nik Cox  
12. Adelaide Finlay Macrae
13. GWS Giants Zach Reid
14. North Melbourne Heath Chapman 
15. Fremantle Tanner Bruhn
16. GWS Giants Tom Powell
17. Collingwood Brayden Cook
18. Sydney Errol Gulden *
19. GWS Giants Sam Berry 
20. Collingwood Caleb Poulter
21. Richmond Nathan O’Driscoll
22. Collingwood Reef McInnes
23. Melbourne Jack Carroll
24. Melbourne Connor Stone
25. GWS Giants Bailey Laurie
26. St Kilda Jake Bowey

* matched academy bids

LISTEN: First-round mock draft based on club needs

It was interesting listening.   Actually they had Dees making a bid on Reef Mcinnes. Nonetheless hoping Jack Carroll does find his way to the Dees. Aligns perfectly with our needs and I’d reckon he’d be a definite chance to get senior footy in 2021.  

[Nascent 7,761]

Some really interesting tidbits in this article here.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/swans-commit-to-bid-on-ugle-hagan-if-he-s-available-at-pick-no-3-20201201-p56jjs.html

Mentions that a bid on JUH will come no later than pick 3 with Sydney a certainty to bid on him if he still there although Adelaide and North also likely to bid.

Braeden Campbell, the swans academy player allegedly won't slide past Adelaide's pick 9 for a bid.

Collingwood are allegedly weighing up placing a bid on Blake Coleman, Lions Academy player, with one of their two first round picks.

 

Perhaps the best part for us Dees fans could come courtesy of everyone's favourite 2nd team the Bombers . Reef McInnes, who the pies are wanting to get past their first 2 selections, is reportedly coming into strong consideration for one of the bombers first 3 picks. Pies will then have a big decision to make on whether they match this or not.

There's obviously a lot that can still play out here and much can change with draft picks still able to be traded, but it's interesting to run through some hypothetical scenarios nonetheless.

Bare with me here and hopefully this makes sense.

Say both JUH and Campbell are taken prior to the bombers selections as has been frequently suggested by various phantom drafts. This pushes the bombers picks from 6, 7 and 8 out to 8, 9 and 10. Collingwoods hand moves out from 14 and 16 to at least 16 and 18. A bid for Lachie Jones could also come in amongst the bombers selections but to keep things a bit simpler I will leave that out of the equation.

Bombers now have 8, 9 and 10. Pies have 16 and 18.

I'll be a little generous to the pies here and run with Bombers placing a bid on McInnes at pick 10 instead of pick 8 or 9.

Pick 10 is worth 1395 points, Pies get a 20% discount to match meaning they need to make up 1116 points.

Their pick 16 is worth 1067 points meaning they will still need to make up the difference of 49 points.  Pick 18 is worth 985 points, remove 49 from this figure and pick 18 gets pushed out to pick 20.

Making sense?

Looking at our draft hand, our picks have theoretically moved from selections 18, 19 out to 21, 22 with these 4 academy bids noting that Collingwoods first pick was ahead of ours.

So what's left in the wash up of this scenario?

Collingwood would be hoping for a scenario where a bid for McInnes is placed after their second pick, meaning they get Pick 14, 16 and McInnes. What will happen instead is they will get McInnes and pick 20 essentially stripping them of a "bonus" first round pick and pushing out their later selection. And lets face it, anything that hinders the pies is a happy news for everyone.

Our picks of 18 and 19 end up being 21 and 22. The real benefit for us here is the fact that there will be an extra player in the draft pool for us to to make our selection from, thus increasing the chances of a player like Carroll or whoever it may be to slip through to us.

Now there are obviously multiple scenarios that could also play out here including the pies trading out their selections or choosing to not match the bid at all, instead take their two first rounders to the draft. Either way, this leaves us in a better position in my opinion. This scenario also gets better for us if the Bombers place a bid with one of their earlier picks.

Hopefully that made sense and my calculations are correct.

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Nascent

[Nascent 7,761]

3 hours ago, BAMF said:

Great effort @Nascent very much appreciated.

All good BAMF, there is a good chance I will look somewhat foolish come draft night though.

[IvanBartul13 2,564]

13 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Some really interesting tidbits in this article here.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/swans-commit-to-bid-on-ugle-hagan-if-he-s-available-at-pick-no-3-20201201-p56jjs.html

Mentions that a bid on JUH will come no later than pick 3 with Sydney a certainty to bid on him if he still there although Adelaide and North also likely to bid.

Braeden Campbell, the swans academy player allegedly won't slide past Adelaide's pick 9 for bid.

Collingwood are allegedly weighing up placing a bid on Blake Coleman, Lions Academy player, with one of their two first round picks.

 

Perhaps the best part for us Dees fans could come courtesy of everyone's favourite 2nd team the Bombers . Reef McInnes, who the pies are wanting to get past their first 2 selections, is reportedly coming into strong consideration for one of the bombers first 3 picks. Pies will then have a big decision to make on whether they match this or not.

There's obviously a lot that can still play out here and much can change with draft picks still able to be traded, but it's interesting to run through some hypothetical scenarios nonetheless.

Bare with me here and hopefully this makes sense.

Say both JUH and Campbell are taken prior to the bombers selections as has been frequently suggested by various phantom drafts. This pushes the bombers picks from 6, 7 and 8 out to 8, 9 and 10. Collingwoods hand moves out from 14 and 16 to at least 16 and 18. A bid for Lachie Jones could also come in amongst the bombers selections but to keep things a bit simpler I will leave that out of the equation.

Bombers now have 8, 9 and 10. Pies have 16 and 18.

I'll be a little generous to the pies here and run with Bombers placing a bid on McInnes at pick 10 instead of pick 8 or 9.

Pick 10 is worth 1395 points, Pies get a 20% discount to match meaning they need to make up 1116 points.

Their pick 16 is worth 1067 points meaning they will still need to make up the difference of 49 points.  Pick 18 is worth 985 points, remove 49 from this figure and pick 18 gets pushed out to pick 20.

Making sense?

Looking at our draft hand, our picks have theoretically moved from selections 18, 19 out to 21, 22 with these 4 academy bids noting that Collingwoods first pick was ahead of ours.

So what's left in the wash up of this scenario?

Collingwood would be hoping for a scenario where a bid for McInnes is placed after their second pick, meaning they get Pick 14, 16 and McInnes. What will happen instead is they will get McInnes and pick 20 essentially stripping them of a "bonus" first round pick and pushing out their later selection. And lets face it, anything that hinders the pies is a happy news for everyone.

Our picks of 18 and 19 end up being 21 and 22. The real benefit for us here is the fact that there will be an extra player in the draft pool for us to to make our selection from, thus increasing the chances of a player like Carroll or whoever it may be to slip through to us.

Now there are obviously multiple scenarios that could also play out here including the pies trading out their selections or choosing to not match the bid at all, instead take their two first rounders to the draft. Either way, this leaves us in a better position in my opinion. This scenario also gets better for us if the Bombers place a bid with one of their earlier picks.

Hopefully that made sense and my calculations are correct.

 

Good stuff!  Brisbane will match any bid for Coleman in the teens,  no chance they don't get him.  

[Axis of Bob 10,500]

Based on how Collingwood has set their picks in the mid teens, there may also be a strong chance that Collingwood simply isn't much interested in McInnes. Effectively, they'll take him for peanuts if he lasts past their picks, but they aren't that fussed to miss out. They have history don't this too, as they passed on James Stewart back in the day. 

[Gawndog98 306]

29 minutes ago, Nascent said:

Some really interesting tidbits in this article here.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/swans-commit-to-bid-on-ugle-hagan-if-he-s-available-at-pick-no-3-20201201-p56jjs.html

Mentions that a bid on JUH will come no later than pick 3 with Sydney a certainty to bid on him if he still there although Adelaide and North also likely to bid.

Braeden Campbell, the swans academy player allegedly won't slide past Adelaide's pick 9 for a bid.

Collingwood are allegedly weighing up placing a bid on Blake Coleman, Lions Academy player, with one of their two first round picks.

 

Perhaps the best part for us Dees fans could come courtesy of everyone's favourite 2nd team the Bombers . Reef McInnes, who the pies are wanting to get past their first 2 selections, is reportedly coming into strong consideration for one of the bombers first 3 picks. Pies will then have a big decision to make on whether they match this or not.

There's obviously a lot that can still play out here and much can change with draft picks still able to be traded, but it's interesting to run through some hypothetical scenarios nonetheless.

Bare with me here and hopefully this makes sense.

Say both JUH and Campbell are taken prior to the bombers selections as has been frequently suggested by various phantom drafts. This pushes the bombers picks from 6, 7 and 8 out to 8, 9 and 10. Collingwoods hand moves out from 14 and 16 to at least 16 and 18. A bid for Lachie Jones could also come in amongst the bombers selections but to keep things a bit simpler I will leave that out of the equation.

Bombers now have 8, 9 and 10. Pies have 16 and 18.

I'll be a little generous to the pies here and run with Bombers placing a bid on McInnes at pick 10 instead of pick 8 or 9.

Pick 10 is worth 1395 points, Pies get a 20% discount to match meaning they need to make up 1116 points.

Their pick 16 is worth 1067 points meaning they will still need to make up the difference of 49 points.  Pick 18 is worth 985 points, remove 49 from this figure and pick 18 gets pushed out to pick 20.

Making sense?

Looking at our draft hand, our picks have theoretically moved from selections 18, 19 out to 21, 22 with these 4 academy bids noting that Collingwoods first pick was ahead of ours.

So what's left in the wash up of this scenario?

Collingwood would be hoping for a scenario where a bid for McInnes is placed after their second pick, meaning they get Pick 14, 16 and McInnes. What will happen instead is they will get McInnes and pick 20 essentially stripping them of a "bonus" first round pick and pushing out their later selection. And lets face it, anything that hinders the pies is a happy news for everyone.

Our picks of 18 and 19 end up being 21 and 22. The real benefit for us here is the fact that there will be an extra player in the draft pool for us to to make our selection from, thus increasing the chances of a player like Carroll or whoever it may be to slip through to us.

Now there are obviously multiple scenarios that could also play out here including the pies trading out their selections or choosing to not match the bid at all, instead take their two first rounders to the draft. Either way, this leaves us in a better position in my opinion. This scenario also gets better for us if the Bombers place a bid with one of their earlier picks.

Hopefully that made sense and my calculations are correct.

 

Yep great stuff. Another factor to look at is where our second rounder ends up. Brisbane and Hawthorn both have picks in-between our picks 19 and 28. In my phantom draft I had us bidding on Downie (Hawthorn NGA) and Coleman (Brisbane NGA) because it makes sense on a need basis but the double advantage to is that the Hawks and Lions will lose their those second round picks in-between ours if they match those bids (which they most likely will), which essentially means there will be 2 extra players in the pool when our pick 28 comes around. So if they don't match those bids, great we get an outside runner and a small forward, if they do match the bids, great we get 2 extra players to pick from with our second rounder.

[Colm 1,555]

If Essendon are thinking of picking McInnes( and I hope they I hope they do) would it not make sense to do a trade with GWS. Pick 13 should be good enough to pick up McInnes and they would also get another good pick from GWS

 

Edit

Just read on Cals December update that Adelaide might be interested in him too so might pick swap with GWS may not make sense. Still good news for us though. 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Colm

[Nascent 7,761]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/526016/cal-twomey-s-phantom-form-guide-december-update

Cal Twomey's latest rankings with some draft whispers attached.

Mentions Carroll is likely to be available in the second round and hasn't got us linked to him.

Has Macrae at 15 but mentions that he could slip if he doesn't go early and we are a possibility.

We've allegedly shown interest in Bailey Laurie who he has ranked at pick 23.

Also mentions us in relation to a bid on Blake Coleman if he got through to 28.

 

Edited December 1, 2020 by Nascent

[Lucifers Hero 37,524]

9 hours ago, Nascent said:

Perhaps the best part for us Dees fans could come courtesy of everyone's favourite 2nd team the Bombers . Reef McInnes, who the pies are wanting to get past their first 2 selections, is reportedly coming into strong consideration for one of the bombers first 3 picks. Pies will then have a big decision to make on whether they match this or not.

Another report:  magpies-essendon-bombers-blake-coleman-reef-mcinnes

"Draft sources have told Foxfooty.com.au the Bombers have spoken openly of potentially swapping Pick 8 with the Pies, but an official offer is yet to come" 

If that swap happens there is no way Ess will bid on McInnes, especially if Coll sweeten the swap with picks 14, 16 and down grade next years first pick, which they are dying to get rid of - it has a whiff of draft tampering about it but hey both clubs are fairly shallow. 

[Clintosaurus 6,940]

Everything hangs on when the bids come for JUH, McInnes etc. Dogs know JUH will cost pretty much all of their picks. McInnes being bid on before the Pies first pick would be a very good thing.

[picket fence 15,785]

On 11/16/2020 at 3:18 PM, Whispering_Jack said:

In Knightmare’s draft, Melbourne’s pick #18 turns out to be #23:-

23. Melbourne - Sam Berry
Height, Weight: 181cm, 83kg
Profile: Winning a high proportion of the ball in contested situations, Berry plays with aggression and tackles strongly. He balances the aggression with acceleration out of stoppages, reliable distribution by hand, composure with ball in hand and precise kick placement out in front of leading inside 50m targets.

Just exactly what we dont need is another inside Mid!! What we lack is  outside Class!

[whatwhat say what 20,406]

18 hours ago, adonski said:

Geez Josh Kelly is a bit of a myth isn't he

bryce gibbs 2.0

[Colm 1,555]

@Gawndog98i see in your latest draft you have the Gold Coast passing on their second round pick ( currently pick 27) due to their  free pick ups. Just seems a waste surely they will swap it out somehow. 
I see Cal Twomey has GWS as a possibility to taking Hawks academy player Downie at pick 20. 
What’s your thoughts on a 3 way trade involving our pick 19 going out along with pick 50, we get 24&27 and GC get hawks future 3rd? ( Hawks have already traded out their future 4th so I’m not sure if they are allowed to trade another future)   

 

[Dirts 429]

1 hour ago, whatwhatsaywhat said:

bryce gibbs 2.0

Happy with Salam and what has now turned into Brown, instead of Kelly. Up and away 2021. 

[whatwhat say what 20,406]

10 minutes ago, Dirts said:

Happy with Salam and what has now turned into Brown, instead of Kelly. Up and away 2021. 

is that you, bruce?

[Gawndog98 306]

21 minutes ago, Colm said:

@Gawndog98i see in your latest draft you have the Gold Coast passing on their second round pick ( currently pick 27) due to their  free pick ups. Just seems a waste surely they will swap it out somehow. 
I see Cal Twomey has GWS as a possibility to taking Hawks academy player Downie at pick 20. 
What’s your thoughts on a 3 way trade involving our pick 19 going out along with pick 50, we get 24&27 and GC get hawks future 3rd? ( Hawks have already traded out their future 4th so I’m not sure if they are allowed to trade another future)   

 

Yep Gold Coast is certain to trade out their pick 27, because they don't have enough list spots to accomodate any more than their pick 5 and their two academy boys who can't be bid on but are first rounders on talent. I was just using the current draft order because its a bit easier than predicting and accounting for potential trades. 

I think that trade checks on our and Hawthorn's behalf but I'd think Gold Coast would want a future second coming their way not a future third. I think there will definitely be clubs offering future seconds for Gold Coast's pick with clubs like Geelong or West Coast who don't have many picks looking to get up in the order. Or there is probably going to be sliders around that points so Gold Coast might get overs for that pick on draft night if there's someone who slides who a club really rates. Either way that pick won't belong to Gold Coast by the time the pick comes around, someone will be using it.

 

[spirit of norm smith 13,631]

6 hours ago, Nascent said:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/526016/cal-twomey-s-phantom-form-guide-december-update

Cal Twomey's latest rankings with some draft whispers attached.

Mentions Carroll is likely to be available in the second round and hasn't got us linked to him.

Has Macrae at 15 but mentions that he could slip if he doesn't go early and we are a possibility.

We've allegedly shown interest in Bailey Laurie who he has ranked at pick 23.

Also mentions us in relation to a bid on Blake Coleman if he got through to 28.

 

Yes if Jack Carroll was available at 18/19, we wouldn’t or shouldn’t let him fall through the Saints.  He ticks all our needs and his East Freo connection with LJ and Riv would help retention of the lads.  
 

 

[Nascent 7,761]

Another draft chat with Cal Twomey for those that are interested.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/527152/chat-recap-a-draft-with-so-many-steals-new-name-in-top-20

Not a whole lot of information regarding the Dees except reiterating our links with Bailey Laurie with the Giants in the mix as well.

What I did find interesting was the mention of Conor Stone and Luke Pedlar as possible first round bolters. Don't know much about Pedlar but Stone sounds like an interesting "explosive" player that knows how to hit the score board playing mainly as a forward flanker in 2019. Apparently is versatile with clubs seeing him as having potential in the back half and through the middle. Wonder if we're one of the clubs keen.

If not, that's two more players into the first round unexpectedly that could see a slider drift out to us. Macrae was said to go early but Cal for the second time has mentioned that if he doesn't go early he could slide a bit into the later parts of the first round. Also talk of Tanner Bruhn more unlikely than likely to go top 10. Will he slide to our picks? Not sure he's the type of player we're after but on talent he would almost be too good to pass up if that did somehow happen.

[deelusions from afar 1,620]

1 hour ago, Nascent said:

Another draft chat with Cal Twomey for those that are interested.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/527152/chat-recap-a-draft-with-so-many-steals-new-name-in-top-20

Not a whole lot of information regarding the Dees except reiterating our links with Bailey Laurie with the Giants in the mix as well.

What I did find interesting was the mention of Conor Stone and Luke Pedlar as possible first round bolters. Don't know much about Pedlar but Stone sounds like an interesting "explosive" player that knows how to hit the score board playing mainly as a forward flanker in 2019. Apparently is versatile with clubs seeing him as having potential in the back half and through the middle. Wonder if we're one of the clubs keen.

If not, that's two more players into the first round unexpectedly that could see a slider drift out to us. Macrae was said to go early but Cal for the second time has mentioned that if he doesn't go early he could slide a bit into the later parts of the first round. Also talk of Tanner Bruhn more unlikely than likely to go top 10. Will he slide to our picks? Not sure he's the type of player we're after but on talent he would almost be too good to pass up if that did somehow happen.

Is it just me or does it seem like this years draft is a giant lottery?  Obviously it always is but there seems to be about 30 names that could be a first rounder.  Obviously there's a group in the top 5, and then after that there's about 20 names to fit into the next 10 and on it goes...

Seems like it's not a bad year to have multiple picks in the top 30 (even with the academy / father son selections).... or (hopefully not for us) it could be a very even draft of low quality