Dees on Brink of Another Trade Disaster

[spirit of norm smith 16,448]

Pick 6 traded to Suns for May, kk and Bennell. I’d through in the curve ball. May got Bennell yo the Dees. Let’s evaluate the trade including HB joining us. Sure Ben King has massive potential but I’ll wait a bit longer for the final judgement on this trade. 

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,821]

I haven't read the whole thread, but gee Demonland has a fickle attitude.  When May was recruited, he was the best thing since sliced bread.  Injured for a season and arguably not in the best form and all of a sudden he's a dud trade.  To be fair, I wasn't a fan of loosing Hogan, but in the circumstances, the Hogan/May deals looked like a pragmatic overall solution.  Something we do need to ask ourselves is if we didn't have May right now, what would our back six look like?  I'm guessing most on here would be far less comfortable with Frost than May down back.

James Frawley is arguably a player with significant deficiencies when it comes to his kicking, yet was identified, targeted and recruited by Hawthorn as an important missing piece of their premiership team in subsequent years.

Similarly I saw a stat that Jake Lever still has one of the best in the league intercept and one on one win rates of any in the league over the past two years.

Think we really need a longer term lense when evaluating the value of trades and shouldn't confuse individual or team form with inherent capability/potential.

Calling a trade deal a bust after 5 or 6 games as ridiculous.  The same thinking would see Jordan Gysberts as a future Brownlow medalist and draft steal.

[Rodney (Balls) Grinter 10,821]

On 7/9/2020 at 3:42 PM, A F said:

I expect nothing less from the Murdoch press than this rubbish, but given the lack of TAC in 2020 and the ensuing COVID-19 flow on effects, I'd say our trading in this instance looks even better.

Time will tell, but the 2020 draft was likely to be severely compromised and now the 18 year olds being drafted have missed a pretty crucial year of development. 

Then there is also the issue of will the AFL reduce list sizes in 2020.  If that's the case, I can see a lot of 2020 talent going through to the state league's and ready to be picked up as more mature, less of a gamble players as rookies or in the 2021 draft.

[Deefiant 441]

57 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I haven't read the whole thread, but gee Demonland has a fickle attitude.  When May was recruited, he was the best thing since sliced bread.  Injured for a season and arguably not in the best form and all of a sudden he's a dud trade.  To be fair, I wasn't a fan of loosing Hogan, but in the circumstances, the Hogan/May deals looked like a pragmatic overall solution.  Something we do need to ask ourselves is if we didn't have May right now, what would our back six look like?  I'm guessing most on here would be far less comfortable with Frost than May down back.

James Frawley is arguably a player with significant deficiencies when it comes to his kicking, yet was identified, targeted and recruited by Hawthorn as an important missing piece of their premiership team in subsequent years.

Similarly I saw a stat that Jake Lever still has one of the best in the league intercept and one on one win rates of any in the league over the past two years.

Think we really need a longer term lense when evaluating the value of trades and shouldn't confuse individual or team form with inherent capability/potential.

Calling a trade deal a bust after 5 or 6 games as ridiculous.  The same thinking would see Jordan Gysberts as a future Brownlow medalist and draft steal.

Perspective on demonland? Am I on the right forum? 

[BigFez 1,457]

I hate these types of articles.

The May trade - End of 2018, Weideman had just had a 24 possession, 7 mark, 3 goal game in an elimination final win against the cats.  He had arrived.

Hogan was injured and Tom McDonald had just had a 53 goal season.  It was widely accepted that another key back was the missing piece in our premiership puzzle, so we went out and got one under the belief that our premiership window was open.  At the time I was stoked with the decision.  Hogan was going anyway, and our time was supposed to be now, so the skinny prodigy King wasn't seen as the best option. 

The Pick Swap with North - Once we win a few games and get closer to the top of the table, and Pickett starts getting 3 goal 10 tackle games, everyone will say what a brilliant trade it was.  AFL media love to sensationalise stories that haven't run their course yet.  Look at them ripping into Clarkson at the moment, the greatest coach of the modern era.  I will revisit this at years' end but for now we are 1 game out of the 8 with plenty to of season (hopefully) left to go.  i think it's a nothing story.

[old55 23,557]

On 7/8/2020 at 9:45 AM, Rusty Nails said:

And Pruess still on the list W as a lumpy back up.  Im sure Jackson will be a good player at some point but is he a ruckman?  A forward?  Im not sure he is either.  Maybe that's a good thing.

But Young would have slotted in pretty much straight away and lifted our awefull kicking skills substantially off HB almost immediately.

It's early days but I'm prepared to bet that the difference between Young and Rivers will be far smaller than the difference between Jackson and any player available at or after the Rivers pick.

[Kent 2,909]

2 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

It's early days but I'm prepared to bet that the difference between Young and Rivers will be far smaller than the difference between Jackson and any player available at or after the Rivers pick.

Jackson has done nothing yet of any significance

young and raw

Unfortunately King was made ready to go

Our big guys seem to take forever to develop

[old55 23,557]

On 7/8/2020 at 11:54 AM, TheoX said:

Pickett was a big reach, and has shown nothing to suggest he is the next Cyril, Betts or Cameron as some on here are suggesting. Would've been a good 3rd or 4th round pick. He doesn't get the ball and he doesn't kick goals, couldn't even do that at U18 level.

This trade is a disaster unless we start winning.

Pickett directly created 3 great goals against GC:

1. The chip pass from outside 50 to Harmes.  We've tried that at least a dozen times and failed every other time so badly I wince.  But Kosi has the vision and skills to execute it perfectly.
2. The tap to Fritsch when surrounded by 4 GC defenders was pure Cyril - that's what he built his entire reputation on.
3. The pass to Bennell at the end was all class - vision and execution again.

[Wiseblood 24,637]

3 minutes ago, Kent said:

Jackson has done nothing yet of any significance

young and raw

Unfortunately King was made ready to go

Our big guys seem to take forever to develop

Yeah, Hogan took forever to develop....

And I love how you're quick to knock Jackson for having done nothing of significance and made some link to us not developing talls.  The bloke's been on the list for all of 6 games.  

[Wiseblood 24,637]

5 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Pickett directly created 3 great goals against GC:

1. The chip pass from outside 50 to Harmes.  We've tried that at least a dozen times and failed every other time so badly I wince.  But Kosi has the vision and skills to execute it perfectly.
2. The tap to Fritsch when surrounded by 4 GC defenders was pure Cyril - that's what he built his entire reputation on.
3. The pass to Bennell at the end was all class - vision and execution again.

And you know what all three of those goals show us?  That the kid is a team player first.  He has the smarts and maturity to see more than just what is right in front of him.  He has the ability to execute well under pressure and make the right decisions.

Once he starts hitting the scoreboard with consistency, which will come eventually as we need to remember he is only 18, he will be a threat to every opposition defence week in, week out.

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

15 minutes ago, Kent said:

Jackson has done nothing yet of any significance

young and raw

Unfortunately King was made ready to go

Our big guys seem to take forever to develop

Hate this sort of rubbish, King didn't play a senior game until round 9 last year. So was not ready to go, then in his first 2 games had a grand total of 10 possessions,1 mark, 1 tackle and 0 goals. He kept his sport purely because Gold Coast had no-one else, since then he's come on a little but he's no star at the moment (certainly has potential to be). Don't see any need to pot Jackson because he's a young kid who hasn't set the world on fire 5 rounds into the season, when you're comparison player hadn't even played a game by the same stage. 

[old55 23,557]

30 minutes ago, Kent said:

Jackson has done nothing yet of any significance

young and raw

Unfortunately King was made ready to go

Our big guys seem to take forever to develop

You mean Ben King at GC?  Who debuted in R9 and had 1 kick, 4 handballs and 0 marks, 0 tackles and 1 Clanger?

Edit: SNAP with R&B Realist

Edited July 17, 2020 by Fifty-5

[Dr. Gonzo 24,209]

2 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

I haven't read the whole thread, but gee Demonland has a fickle attitude.  When May was recruited, he was the best thing since sliced bread.  Injured for a season and arguably not in the best form and all of a sudden he's a dud trade.  To be fair, I wasn't a fan of loosing Hogan, but in the circumstances, the Hogan/May deals looked like a pragmatic overall solution.  Something we do need to ask ourselves is if we didn't have May right now, what would our back six look like?  I'm guessing most on here would be far less comfortable with Frost than May down back.

James Frawley is arguably a player with significant deficiencies when it comes to his kicking, yet was identified, targeted and recruited by Hawthorn as an important missing piece of their premiership team in subsequent years.

Similarly I saw a stat that Jake Lever still has one of the best in the league intercept and one on one win rates of any in the league over the past two years.

Think we really need a longer term lense when evaluating the value of trades and shouldn't confuse individual or team form with inherent capability/potential.

Calling a trade deal a bust after 5 or 6 games as ridiculous.  The same thinking would see Jordan Gysberts as a future Brownlow medalist and draft steal.

The only issue with May is his age. I was happy with the trade at the time I'm just worried that King is going to be a gun athletic key forward, something we've been crying out for for a generation.

[Lucifers Hero 39,752]

We would not have taken King for the very reason we used pick #6 for May:  we thought we had our tall forwards in Weideman and TMac. 

Judging from other threads the person we wanted in that draft was Butters taken at pick 12 by Port.  

So King vs May isn't a remotely credible discussion.

[Lord Travis 10,729]

3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

We would not have taken King for the very reason we used pick #6 for May:  we thought we had our tall forwards in Weideman and TMac. 

Judging from other threads the person we wanted in that draft was Butters taken at pick 12 by Port.  

So King vs May isn't a remotely credible discussion.

We actually might've taken Ben King. He played and excelled as a key defender at underage level, though swung forward a few times. His brother Max was the tall forward and higher rated brother. If we were after a key defender, Ben King was the best of that draft, so we might've taken him!

He started his career as a tall defender at Gold Coast, hence no goals in his first few games. He was tried forward out of necessity and it's turned out he's a gun tall forward and will likely play out his career there.

But yes, if our pick was later than pick 6 as originally projected, we were very keen on Butters as a classy midfielder to compliment our grunt. I'm still hopefully we could get him across at some point, as he looks a real talent and exactly what we need IMO.

[Red and Blue realist 2,051]

Another thing that needs to be brought up in this discussion (the one about the North pick swap, not the one's having a shot and May or Jackson) is the lack of similar players like Pickett year draft, at least at the top end. Cal Twomey wrote an article yesterday on the AFL site https://www.afl.com.au/news/465404/tall-athletic-and-versatile-25-of-the-best-draft-prospects which discussed 25 of the top prospects. There's only one small forward and he's tied to Sydney.

So one question needs to be, have we paid slightly overs for a player type we desperately needed who wasn't go to be available the year after? And if so, does that matter? I think that if we had of kept our first round pick this year and due to the academy & F/S we ended up with a lack of true choice, then we could end up reaching even further? The argument might be to take the best available, but what if the next few best available are inside mids? I think the recruiters have to be praised for taking a risk. 

[old55 23,557]

1 hour ago, Red and Blue realist said:

Another thing that needs to be brought up in this discussion (the one about the North pick swap, not the one's having a shot and May or Jackson) is the lack of similar players like Pickett year draft, at least at the top end. Cal Twomey wrote an article yesterday on the AFL site https://www.afl.com.au/news/465404/tall-athletic-and-versatile-25-of-the-best-draft-prospects which discussed 25 of the top prospects. There's only one small forward and he's tied to Sydney.

So one question needs to be, have we paid slightly overs for a player type we desperately needed who wasn't go to be available the year after? And if so, does that matter? I think that if we had of kept our first round pick this year and due to the academy & F/S we ended up with a lack of true choice, then we could end up reaching even further? The argument might be to take the best available, but what if the next few best available are inside mids? I think the recruiters have to be praised for taking a risk. 

Yes good point R&BR.

The other small forward types I think were Liam Henry - tied to Fremantle and yet to debut, and Cody Weightman picked up by the Dogs and debuting this weekend - it will be good to see how he goes, he has some big wraps and was probably the viable alternative to Pickett.  He'll need to be very good to be better than Picket.

[Axis of Bob 11,801]

I'm looking forward to the predictable reprint of this article at the end of the year when the media is drooling over Pickett and North is chastised by the media for 'giving him away'.

The football media is just terrible. 

[ChaserJ 5,089]

2 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

We actually might've taken Ben King. He played and excelled as a key defender at underage level, though swung forward a few times. His brother Max was the tall forward and higher rated brother. If we were after a key defender, Ben King was the best of that draft, so we might've taken him!

He started his career as a tall defender at Gold Coast, hence no goals in his first few games. He was tried forward out of necessity and it's turned out he's a gun tall forward and will likely play out his career there.

But yes, if our pick was later than pick 6 as originally projected, we were very keen on Butters as a classy midfielder to compliment our grunt. I'm still hopefully we could get him across at some point, as he looks a real talent and exactly what we need IMO.

Bailey Smith would have been the other one in consideration in the hypothetical world where we didn’t trade for May. The top 7-9 in that draft were highly touted, so my gut was always in knots about trading out of that draft.

My understandings that we tried to get a pick after 10 to get Butters, but didn’t happen.

[Ethan Tremblay 30,856]

[Adam The God 30,224]

5 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

Yeah, Hogan took forever to develop....

And I love how you're quick to knock Jackson for having done nothing of significance and made some link to us not developing talls.  The bloke's been on the list for all of 6 games.  

Whilst I generally agree it's too early to comment on Jackson, you cannot dismiss that our tall blokes (with the exception of Hogan) seem to take longer than some other teams. Oscar and Weideman are two very good examples of players who may well make it, but have taken much longer than say Curnow or even King to come on. 

[Little Goffy 14,524]

Maybe even Captain Hindsight-based-on-speculation-about-worst-case-scenario?

If Pickett progreses the way he looks like he will and Melbourne lift themselves up once they have had some time playing together at full speed, and the 2020 draft proves to be a total lottery with no exposed form to judge on, then the trade for the Pickett-Pick was one of the most brilliant ever made.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,754]

On 7/7/2020 at 10:11 PM, Earl Hood said:

He was a NSW Giants academy player so all they have to do is match our first round bid which was pick 3 with their first rounder, pick 17 to get Greene. That’s the rules. I am sick of these academies, the draft has become a compromised joke against clubs like us. 

Change "these academies" for "father-son selections" and hopefully you'll appreciate why the academies were created. It's still quite some time before GWS and the Gold Coast will have access to father-son prospects.

On 7/7/2020 at 10:37 PM, WERRIDEE said:

I agree going for a ruckman was just plain stupid by Melbourne as usual. We already have the best ruckman in the league. Why on earth did we need another ruckman?

Succession planning. By the time Jackson is old enough to be a reliable first ruck option (should he get there), Max will be close to or perhaps even be retired. Preuss is just a backup should we need a strong first ruck option in the meantime.

[one_demon 826]

On 7/7/2020 at 8:37 PM, ChaserJ said:

The one that could really bite us, more than any other trade or draft blunder in our history, is the May over Ben King decision.

Yep.  They'll be no premiership this year and May will be twenty nine years old at the start of next season. 

Edited July 18, 2020 by one_demon

[cantstandyasam 700]

On 7/7/2020 at 8:37 PM, ChaserJ said:

We got access to Rivers after we traded back to pick 10 from 8 & also got pick 28 back as part of the deal with the Dockers.

Once all of that trading is factored in, the extras balance out, we effectively traded this years first rounder for Kozzy. And I'm ok with that.

The one that could really bite us, more than any other trade or draft blunder in our history, is the May over Ben King decision.

I agree May over King if only we didn't make that trade.