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The Splitting of Pick 8

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If Geelong are only offering pick 14+36 for pick 9, there is no way they will offer 14+17 for 8.

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We've given up a likely 2020 top4 pick, 26 and 50 for pick 8. Would have to be a pretty good deal for us to part with it you'd think. 

Edited by TheoX
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6 minutes ago, olisik said:

If Geelong are only offering pick 14+36 for pick 9, there is no way they will offer 14+17 for 8.

Then in my opinion its a no deal for us. Keep pick 8.

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Yet to see any realistic hypothetical that would make me want to trade either top 10 pick.

If we were going to trade, I would have done it during trade week for a player + pick.

Cant see any club with the currency to make it worth our while.

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Depends entirely on what happens at 3... if we get green with no match from gws ... then split 8 with gc or bris or cats to get a tall ...McAsey or Worrell and a tiny Pickett or weightman... 

then rookie Bennell and Murray... to add to Langdon and Thomlinson...not bad haul

if gws match at 3 then jackson at 4 and Kemp or Flanders or Serong at 8 ... and Brent crosswell at 97

 

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Catastrophic they say ... we are packed.. one pair of undies each and two toothbrushes... only one road out... almost sounds like a Springsteen lyric... 

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That several clubs are prepared to package up their mid teen pick for a top 10 shows there must be some real gems in the top 10 that won't be on the table at 14, 15, etc. 

Two top 10 players (@3+8) are far better for us than one top player @3 and two lesser more speculative players in the mid to late teens, especially now that we are likely to have Bennell.

Unless we get an offer too good to refuse we take 8 to the draft!

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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19 minutes ago, grey wolf said:

but my 10,000 vinyls.....!!!

I’m in the same boat... without the vinyls! Hope to see u Bk at courthouse in 2020, both our  homes still standing. 

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1 hour ago, olisik said:

If Geelong are only offering pick 14+36 for pick 9, there is no way they will offer 14+17 for 8.

Even if they did offer 14+17 we should not accept it - In draft points 14+17 is worth far less than what we gave North to get pick 8 and their is an intangible value in the quality of pick 8.  No way should we 'sell' it at a discount to another club. 

If we did we would look pretty stupid having given up our 2020 first rounder and paid a massive premium to get 8.  

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1 hour ago, TheoX said:

We've given up a likely 2020 top4 pick, 26 and 50 for pick 8. Would have to be a pretty good deal for us to part with it you'd think. 

We are backing ourselves to rise further up the ladder next year. Our 1st might have been 10, 12 or higher. Yet in a draft where up to half of the top 20 are academy or FS, that could easily get pushed to 18 or 20.

All hypothetical, but also quite realistic IMO. Good planning, I say

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1 hour ago, Superunknown said:

This is still a thing ?

 

good luck tomorrow @grey wolf @Brownie and others in the northern rivers 

Back out in the f truck tomorrow night.

Great way to spend our one month wedding anni.

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 Pick Trade Prospects is about the jostling for top 10 picks and a lot of clubs wanting to trade out their 2020 first-round picks but now there are few takers. 

My take from the article (paraphrasing and added my comments):

  • Giants are snookered if Adelaide won't trade #4; will have to use 6 for Green, as Sydney won't let him slip past their 5. 🙂
  • Adelaide are linked to Fischer McAsey, as is Port, Geelong, Hawks and GCS.  If Adelaide trade pick 4 or don't take him Hawks are best placed but they Geelong, and GCS are trying to trade into the top 10.  (Interestingly, McAsey hasn't had much attention on DL.)
  • Hawks are also interested in Dylan Stephens and Brodie Kemp and want to trade into the top 10 but are hampered by AFL rules that don't allow a club to trade out future picks if they trade out their first future, so like GWS they don't have enough currency to prise out a top 10 pick.  hawthorn-facing-draft-snag-as-it-looks-to-trade-future-firstround-pick
  • Melbourne (#8) and Carlton (#9) are mentioned as potential pick trades with GCS.  (Haha, after the Jack Martin shenanigans by Carlton I can't see GCS (ie Cochrane) allowing it).
  • Suggestions that the 2020 draft isn't as classy (and compromised with Academy and F/S players).

Pick trades end on Friday.  Then live-pick trade starts with the draft next week

We did very well to get our 2020 first-round pick trade done early and landed #8.  There may be few takers now with various clubs wanting out of 2020.

With so many clubs desperate to get into the top10 our pick 8 has just gone up in value!!

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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Candidates for pick 8 trade:

Freo: 10 + 22

GC: 15 + 20

Geelong: 14 + 17 (24 too late for me)

Port: 2 of 12, 16 and 18 

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3 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

Candidates for pick 8 trade:

Freo: 10 + 22

GC: 15 + 20

Geelong: 14 + 17 (24 too late for me)

Port: 2 of 12, 16 and 18 

I'd take 12 and 18 off Port.

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3 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Candidates for pick 8 trade:

Freo: 10 + 22 equivalent pick equivalent pick 28 difference

GC: 15 + 20 equivalent pick 38 difference

Geelong: 14 + 17 (24 too late for me) equivalent pick 30 difference

Port: 2 of 12, 16 and 18 

equivalent pick 25 difference (12 + 16)
equivalent pick 28 difference (12 + 18)
equivalent pick 37 difference (16 + 18)


I've added the differentials to pick 8 above.

With such competition for a pick in the top 10, I think we can take advantage of the situation.
Assuming all are genuinely keen...

Dismiss GCS out of hand, and any thought of Port's 16 & 18 based on the pick values above.
To move up into the top 10 before a very weak year will cost you, and it'll cost you an early 2nd round pick.

Bluff using Freo.
Geelong? 30 is not enough when Freo are offering 28.
Port offering 28? There's a player we think will be there at 10 but not 12, so we're going with Freo.

Port offering 25? Now you're talking.

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8 minutes ago, Mach5 said:


I've added the differentials to pick 8 above.

With such competition for a pick in the top 10, I think we can take advantage of the situation.
Assuming all are genuinely keen...

Dismiss GCS out of hand, and any thought of Port's 16 & 18 based on the pick values above.
To move up into the top 10 before a very weak year will cost you, and it'll cost you an early 2nd round pick.

Bluff using Freo.
Geelong? 30 is not enough when Freo are offering 28.
Port offering 28? There's a player we think will be there at 10 but not 12, so we're going with Freo.

Port offering 25? Now you're talking.

I think it will ultimately come down to where we think the players we want will fall.

10 + 22

12 + 18

14 + 17

All offer similar value but may deliver different players.

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Personally I think we could trade 8 for freo's 10 + 22 allowing them a boost up the order before a Henry bid.

Then I would trade 10 for 15 + 20 from the suns as it is clear they want another top 10 pick as they might not even be able to use pick 20 due to list space.

Would leave us with picks 3, 15, 20, 22 = essentially 4 top 20 picks

It would be 8 for 15, 20, 22.

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Jackson at 3

Trade 8 to Freo for 10 and 22. If they don't accept, bid on Henry at 8. Best small forward in the draft, if Freo don't match we then have two WA boys coming over so hopefully reduces go home factor later

If Freo accept the trade, go for Robertson at 10, good ball user I can imagine coming off the half back line (with leadership potential), and same philosophy as above re two WA boys. Then hope Weightman gets through to 22, if not, Pickett

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Freo trade would be enticing and Gold Coast offer would be less so but I say keep the pick.

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I see this as a real draft day decision, I think we'll take Jackson at pick 3 and then will see how the rest of the draft order shapes up to see if we split 8 or not. There's a chance Young or Serong are available at 8 and I think we'd take them, but if both are gone, then I think we'd looking at trying to get access to Weightman, Pickett or Taylor. 

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Remind me again why we are allegedly chasing Jackson ?

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