Our Recruiting.

[pewpewpew 738]

26 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Demonland week 3

Prepare yourselves for Demonland Week 4

[Moonshadow 17,676]

29 minutes ago, Demon3 said:

I imagine this means its all a bit OTT and its being to dramatic? Time will tell and if you are not at all worried about the situation then thats your right.

Thanks for telling me how I think.

[Demon3 2,541]

5 minutes ago, Moonshadow said:

Thanks for telling me how I think.

I wasnt, but you be all defensive about it, maybe you should coach our backs. 

[Sydee 4,442]

45 minutes ago, Smokey said:

Suggesting we will finish bottom 4 is the most ridiculous reaction to the first few rounds I've heard so far. Make a cup of tea and relax, we are not that bad. 

Well actually it's not that ridiculous at all if you look at where teams that have started in a similar way have finished the season over the past 5 seasons

The list below shows season - team - ladder position for 1st three weeks and position at seasons end

2018 WB 18,18,16 - 13

2017 Freo 13,18,15 - 14

2016 Freo 18,17,16 - 16

2015 Bris 13,17,18 - 18

2014 Melb 14,14,18 - 17

It doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that a miracle turnaround is imminent - and I did look at these ladder positions calmly over a nice cup of tea

[Smokey 4,389]

9 minutes ago, Sydee said:

Well actually it's not that ridiculous at all if you look at where teams that have started in a similar way have finished the season over the past 5 seasons

The list below shows season - team - ladder position for 1st three weeks and position at seasons end

2018 WB 18,18,16 - 13

2017 Freo 13,18,15 - 14

2016 Freo 18,17,16 - 16

2015 Bris 13,17,18 - 18

2014 Melb 14,14,18 - 17

It doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that a miracle turnaround is imminent - and I did look at these ladder positions calmly over a nice cup of tea

Good post. Did any of those teams finish top 4 the year previous however? Might be the difference worth clinging to at this stage. 

[beelzebub 23,377]

1 hour ago, Smokey said:

Our list. While there are agreed flaws in its makeup, especially around outside runners. The fact remains we have one of the best midfield's on paper in the comp, a fantastic looking backline when all players are available and a serviceable make up of forwards which managed plenty of high scores without Hogan last year. 

If I were to base our seasons potential on current form then yes, I would predict a bottom 4 finish. But that's a really simplistic view I refuse to take. Form can change, it's really simple stuff. Do I think we have a premiership winning team? Probably not. But saying we are going to finish bottom four is a stretch right now. 

I really cant share your faith. Our style is now, thanks to various reason , now very yesterday. Last season we bamboozled and blustered our way to wins until we were ceremoniously torn a new one. We havent really looked like winning since.  OUr defence is....well....non existent. It may well get better ( npi) with May in maybe 3-4 weeks  ( and as to long term...should we be concerned with soft tissue occurrences here ?: )  Lever is still some ways off. Omac has gone backwards..Hibberd non effectual . Jetta..no idea( why off the pace). Our game style down back is fundamentally bad. How we defend isnt going to work against anyone who actually HAS the ball.

We dont run hard enough both ways ..even the mids.. Its great when your going ok, to only head in the one direction , but our style of play seemingly leaves a lot of players out of poisition when oppositions counter swiftly.

666 doesnt help at all. That said it ought not be affecting us as badly as it is...but again...we're out of position ..or unbalanced in play.

We've got far too many scrum types. Eager to get in at the ball, but it just leaves us with our dacks down the minute the opposition pounce on a wayward ball and spread.

Last season's 14th place-getter won 8 games, as the year before that, 7 the year before. I see that as a monumental task just at the moment.Wed need to win more than half our games to even nudge the 8

Bottom 4...well maybe a bit  of gloomy over-prediction....maybe bottom 8 ...all but definitely.

We got somewhere last year by , in many games simply outscoring the opposition. Games werent that  much won sometimes by our brilliance, or game style etc...just that we hit the scoreboard very effective . We cant hit the side of a barn currently. Percentage will play a big part on how we end up .

If it was a case of we were just a little bit off our game...just needing to click..well, things might not seem that gloomy. But unless you are on another planet then even the most die hearted of supporters should concede we're in more than a spot of bother.

Our race in 2019 might soon be over before its hardly started. We have too many of one type and not enough of another.

We've recruited for the wrong game effectively.

Edited April 8, 2019 by beelzebub

[Sydee 4,442]

10 minutes ago, Smokey said:

Good post. Did any of those teams finish top 4 the year previous however? Might be the difference worth clinging to at this stage. 

Not sure what the relevance of the top 4 finish the previous year is (we finished 5th in 2018)

However, Freo finished 1st in 2015 then 16 in 2016

The other thing I thought was interesting looking at those seasons was that at Round 11 the final 8 teams are pretty well locked in and generally there are only one or two teams outside the 8 at the midpoint that sneak into finals

In 2016 the final 8 teams did not change at all from Round 11 - just the order

All a bit sobering for those that believe in miracles after a 0-3 start 

 

 

[titan_uranus 25,020]

39 minutes ago, Sydee said:

Well actually it's not that ridiculous at all if you look at where teams that have started in a similar way have finished the season over the past 5 seasons

The list below shows season - team - ladder position for 1st three weeks and position at seasons end

2018 WB 18,18,16 - 13

2017 Freo 13,18,15 - 14

2016 Freo 18,17,16 - 16

2015 Bris 13,17,18 - 18

2014 Melb 14,14,18 - 17

It doesn't exactly fill me with confidence that a miracle turnaround is imminent - and I did look at these ladder positions calmly over a nice cup of tea

Sure. The odds are against.

But at the end of Round 3 last year Port Adelaide was on top (didn't make finals), Adelaide was 3rd (didn't make finals), Gold Coast was 6th (they won two more games for the rest of the year and finished 17th), Geelong was 12th (1-2, went on to finish 13-9 and make finals) and Collingwood was 14th (1-2, went on to finish 15-7 and was a minute away from winning the flag).

[Smokey 4,389]

2 minutes ago, Sydee said:

Not sure what the relevance of the top 4 finish the previous year is (we finished 5th in 2018)

However, Freo finished 1st in 2015 then 16 in 2016

The other thing I thought was interesting looking at those seasons was that at Round 11 the final 8 teams are pretty well locked in and generally there are only one or two teams outside the 8 at the midpoint that sneak into finals

In 2016 the final 8 teams did not change at all from Round 11 - just the order

All a bit sobering for those that believe in miracles after a 0-3 start 

 

 

Simply making a link between the teams you've listed and their previous years performance and relative expectation for the following season. It mostly shows that teams that start with this record are generally expected to do so. Freo, and now Melbourne, are outliers to this. Freo obviously didn't turn it around, and whether we can or not remains to be seen. Of all the teams you listed below, the Freo 2016 team is really the only relevant one worth mentioning as the others were below average teams going into the year in question.  

2019 Melb - 13, 18, 18 - Finished 5th in 2018, predicted to make 8 in 2019.    

2018 WB 18,18,16 - 13 - Finished 10th in 2017, not predicted to make 8 2018.

2017 Freo 13,18,15 - 14 - Finished 14th in 2016, not predicted to make 8 in 2017. 

2016 Freo 18,17,16 - 16 - Finished 1st in 2015, predicted to make 8 in 2016.

2015 Bris 13,17,18 - 18 -  Finished 15th in 2014, not predicted to make 8 in 2015.

2014 Melb 14,14,18 - 17 - Finished 17th in 2013, not predicted to make 8 in 2014. 

[DubDee 25,869]

1 hour ago, Soidee said:

I would like a dollar for every time a DL member said we will be right for a tilt at the flag in 3 years.  I think that’s part of the problem here. We should be demanding success NOW

you can demand what you want but that won't change a thing

Also I said over the next 3 years not in 3 years. I said before the season started that as we are a young list I think we'll have 1 year where we don't make finals and one year where we make a GF over the next three years and I stick by that. 

Just look at Richmond finishing 13th and winning the flag the next year.  things can turn around quickly year to year but to make major changes mid season is tough

[Pennant St Dee 13,174]

Hindsight is wonderful but you need to look back a lot further than you are. 

Hawks dynasty was built on the 2001 and 04 drafts and topped up with Burgoyne Lake Hale and Mcevoy.  Cats was the 99 and 2001 drafts.

We are still paying for the poor drafting in the first 12 years of the noughties which killed our depth. Don't underestimate the importance of having a large amount of 8 to 10 + year AFL hardened players on your list

Eagles - Kennedy Darling Shuey Hurn Yeo Hutchings Vardy Masten Schofield Reddan Shepherd Gaff Cripps and Jetta.

Some of those players are very ordinary but have the bodies and experience to come in and fill a role allowing the youngster to flourish.

It's why you see sides like Eagles Cats Hawks Swans and Pies bounce back so quickly after 2 to 3 years out of contention. The continous development of their lists and evolution of player depth every year.

We are about 5 years into building what takes 8 to 10 to build into a long term powerhouse. That is why the injury list and drop off in form of experience is exposing our depth

[Moonshadow 17,676]

1 hour ago, Demon3 said:

I wasnt, but you be all defensive about it, maybe you should coach our backs. 

Why would I need to when you obviously know it all

I'll write slowly for you, because clearly you struggle:

I didn't claim not to be concerned with our current situation. The gif was intended to show how quickly Demonland goes into panic mode. That's all.

Move along now

 

[DV8 2,271]

2 hours ago, Demon3 said:

You would think we are but the reality is the other teams have caught up and we cant go with them, its a great competition, it might be a case of us just being the 14th best side, not the 4th worst.

Within 3 Yrs time_    we will be behind Carlton's list,  On-field.    And on ladder...  unless we get our act together now....  Re our shopping methods. Apart from Oli we have no Agrace mids

With Brayshaw more B+...  because of his kicking effectiveness. he is too wayward.

[Sydee 4,442]

9 minutes ago, Smokey said:

Simply making a link between the teams you've listed and their previous years performance and relative expectation for the following season. It mostly shows that teams that start with this record are generally expected to do so. Freo, and now Melbourne, are outliers to this. Freo obviously didn't turn it around, and whether we can or not remains to be seen. Of all the teams you listed below, the Freo 2016 team is really the only relevant one worth mentioning as the others were below average teams going into the year in question.  

 

2

I guess this is the area where people will differ in opinions

I have plenty of friends that continue to say Melbourne has for many years been below average - hard to argue with that statement given our past performances

Last year we made the finals - Yay - we won two which was great but tbh both could've gone the other way with some change in luck/circumstances
V Hawks - they have momentum and Gunsten doesn't smash it into the post running into an open goal then it goes to the other end for a 12 point play - if he kicks the goal it was definitely game on
V Cats - they have momentum and Selwood has a brain fade running off the ground and strips Hawkins of a very gettable shot at goal - Hawkins keeps the ball and slots it was definitely game on  

This year, so far we look well below average and yes we could turn it around but to believe we are anything special based on the output of this team is fools gold if you ask me 

There needs to be a much larger body of evidence to suggest that we have risen from the below average category I'm afraid - this week there's is another chance to prove they were worthy of a finals prediction this season - let's see what is served up    

[Soidee 1,496]

44 minutes ago, DubDee said:

you can demand what you want but that won't change a thing

Also I said over the next 3 years not in 3 years. I said before the season started that as we are a young list I think we'll have 1 year where we don't make finals and one year where we make a GF over the next three years and I stick by that. 

Just look at Richmond finishing 13th and winning the flag the next year.  things can turn around quickly year to year but to make major changes mid season is tough

I agree on your points.  We continue to wait nothing else we can do.  It’s hopeless, and the story of the MFC

[GCDee 3,199]

Our recruiting has been great. 

IF we had a fully fit May & Lever on the park right now our team would like 100 times better. 

If you join the May and Lever Deals this is the result: 

IN: MAY, LEVER, KK, PICK 35 (2017)- PETTY, PICK 28 (2018)- SPARROW

OUT: PICK 10 (2017)- FOGARTY PICK 16 (2018)- MCHENRY, HOGAN 

I can honestly say I'd prefer what we have in for what we got rid of however this could obviously change if those picks turn into out and out stars. We are a club which won't look to bend other clubs over at the trade table, we do fair low risk deals... Lever and May I can guarantee would walk into ANY teams starting line up and I really am looking forward to them playing together. 

We have also done a lot of not as notable deals over the past few years.. 

Melksham- 2nd rounder

Hibberd- 2nd rounder

2nd round (Fritta)- Watts

Lewis- 3rd rounder...

Anyone who honestly thinks to FD is doing a poor job with the list decisions I encourage you to go back and look at the 2015 list and look at the transformation over the past 4 years, it is truly incredible. The club is in good hands, just incredibly frustrated with the poor start to the year like all of you and did not see the loss against Essendon coming. If we do not switch on fast, this year will be wasted. We are down on key personal, we are down on confidence, and we are down on fitness. 

 

 

[Deemania since 56 6,639]

7 hours ago, DeeZee said:

I’m more worried about our key position talls.

If Weed or Preuss don’t come up we rely on an out of form TMac.

Joel Smith  is the key here , looked like the answer in the JLT but can be very injury prone.

Keys backs will be sorted once Lever and May return, but it could be too late to save us this year.

This invokes instant thoughts of AVB and Joel Smith contributions in the very near future, hopefully. We are currently a lop-sided mixture of some sort that is really testing our recruiting and alleged depth. A return to form for Jeffy would also be amazing....

[Deemania since 56 6,639]

3 minutes ago, GCDee said:

Our recruiting has been great. 

IF we had a fully fit May & Lever on the park right now our team would like 100 times better. 

If you join the May and Lever Deals this is the result: 

IN: MAY, LEVER, KK, PICK 35 (2017)- PETTY, PICK 28 (2018)- SPARROW

OUT: PICK 10 (2017)- FOGARTY PICK 16 (2018)- MCHENRY, HOGAN 

I can honestly say I'd prefer what we have in for what we got rid of however this could obviously change if those picks turn into out and out stars. We are a club which won't look to bend other clubs over at the trade table, we do fair low risk deals... Lever and May I can guarantee would walk into ANY teams starting line up and I really am looking forward to them playing together. 

We have also done a lot of not as notable deals over the past few years.. 

Melksham- 2nd rounder

Hibberd- 2nd rounder

2nd round (Fritta)- Watts

Lewis- 3rd rounder...

Anyone who honestly thinks to FD is doing a poor job with the list decisions I encourage you to go back and look at the 2015 list and look at the transformation over the past 4 years, it is truly incredible. The club is in good hands, just incredibly frustrated with the poor start to the year like all of you and did not see the loss against Essendon coming. If we do not switch on fast, this year will be wasted. We are down on key personal, we are down on confidence, and we are down on fitness. 

 

 

Begs the question, though: 'How did we not maintain development (fitness, form, freedom from sustained injuries and surgeries) for so many players with attributes for football?' And then, 'Why is it that many of our recruits - though not all - fail to develop as conceived at the time of their recruitment?' I guess that if we knew the reasons for these issues and were capable of doing something tangible about such concerns, we'd be sitting pretty, right now. Do we have to admit that we do not have such skills in our FD and managerial set?

[GCDee 3,199]

21 minutes ago, Deemania since 56 said:

Begs the question, though: 'How did we not maintain development (fitness, form, freedom from sustained injuries and surgeries) for so many players with attributes for football?' And then, 'Why is it that many of our recruits - though not all - fail to develop as conceived at the time of their recruitment?' I guess that if we knew the reasons for these issues and were capable of doing something tangible about such concerns, we'd be sitting pretty, right now. Do we have to admit that we do not have such skills in our FD and managerial set?

We have a young team stacked with talent... the reality is we wouldn't have too many players in our starting 22 which has completed 4+ pre seasons. To be frank a majority of our players aren't seasoned AFL players yet, we really cannot expect a team of superstars when half of them are still under 25, we will be inconsistent, our guys are still learning what it takes to be a professional and how to get the best out of themselves. 

Your point about the fail to develop our players is incredibly harsh, it's impossible to nail every single pick... Below is our top 4 picks from the previous 4 drafts. Highlighted are players many would agree are in the top 25-30 players on our list. 2018/2017 draftees are much too early to judge. With 3 duds on that list and 6 players still with potential to go along with 5 great players I am happy with that strike rate. These are also picks in years we we have been able to add in experienced players in, Lever, May, Melksham, Lewis & Hibberd who are all best 22. 

2015- OLIVER, WEID, KING, HULETT 

2016- HANNAN, JOHNSTONE (REST WAS TRADED) 

2017- SPARGO, FRITTA, PETTY, BAKER

2018- SPARROW, JORDON, NITSCHKE, HORE

 

Perhaps we need to give our team some time to gel, mature and condition to AFL and the toll it takes on young bodies? 

 

[Willmoy1947 4,089]

On 4/7/2019 at 9:56 AM, old dee said:

That is what seperates those that win flags from the MFC. We never seem to see the obvious. The Weid will never be a 50 goal a year KPF and TMac has never looked like being one either. We deleted Hogan with the hope both would make significant improvement. Hope seldom gets the result as we are seeing.

The only time that Hogan has been getting a mention is when some [censored] in the Media Rabble wants to dig the boots into ....that he used to be at MFC. Just waiting for the inevitable interview question......."Why did you stay so long there?"

[Lucifers Hero 39,817]

2 hours ago, GCDee said:

Our recruiting has been great. 

IN: MAY, LEVER, KK, PICK 35 (2017)- PETTY, PICK 28 (2018)- SPARROW

 

OUT: PICK 10 (2017)- FOGARTY PICK 16 (2018)- MCHENRY, HOGAN

Firstly to clarify:  #16 for McHenry was from Carlton in the McGovern trade.  It started life as Sydney's first round pick (#13) and slid to #16 because of matching bids beforehand. 

Our 2018 first round pick (slid to #19) Adelaide traded to Carlton during the live trade period for Carlton's 2019 first round pick, likely to be in the top 5.

Effectively, Lever cost us a top 5 pick (2019) and a top 10 pick (2017).  So, imv he is looking very expensive! 

So, as it stands I don't see our recruiting looking so great.

Edit:  Adelaide gave Carlton their 2019 first round pick in return for its first.  Even so, Lever still looks expensive.

Edited April 8, 2019 by Lucifer's Hero

[Watts the matter 1,235]

3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Firstly to clarify:  #16 for McHenry was from Carlton in the McGovern trade.  It started life as Sydney's first round pick (#13) and slid to #16 because of matching bids beforehand. 

Our 2018 first round pick (slid to #19) Adelaide traded to Carlton during the live trade period for Carlton's 2019 first round pick, likely to be in the top 5.

Effectively, Lever cost us a top 5 pick (2019) and a top 10 pick (2017).  So, imv he is looking very expensive! 

So, as it stands I don't see our recruiting looking so great.

That trade is a bit more complicated than that. Adelaide included their 2019 first round pick to get it, which the way us and the crows are travelling currently isn't looking that good.

[Lucifers Hero 39,817]

Just now, Watts the matter said:

That trade is a bit more complicated than that. Adelaide included their 2019 first round pick to get it, which the way us and the crows are travelling currently isn't looking that good.

I know but I had to draw the line somewhere re the permutations. 

My point was that by leaving out the trade of our 2018 first round pick for Carlton's 2019 first round pick the Lever trade is not being correctly valued.

[Redleg 40,926]

4 hours ago, Wiseblood said:

I'm preparing myself for the challenge of winning the flag from eighth.

Wise you are an optimist. Look at the list below and tell me what you disagree with:

Injuries to key players.

Operations and compromised pre season to key players.

Lack of pace on the list, despite what some on here say.

Poor skills throughout the list, with a few exceptions.

Lack of quality small goal kicking forwards.

A very risky game plan that requires 100% commitment/awareness and supreme fitness.

Poor form of several players.

Improving opposition teams, making it more difficult to get wins. 

Lack of a fit, quality second ruckman.  

Lack of replacement key forward if Tom or Weid injured.

Lack of depth, currently available at Casey.

0-3 start which could blow out even worse in the next few games.

Wise, the above are some of the reasons I think you are optimistic. That said I hope you are correct, or we even fluke/manage a higher spot in the 8. 

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,759]

On 4/7/2019 at 10:50 AM, doc roet said:

We could do with someone like a Dean Kent in our forward line at the moment.

?

When people say this, they're always remembering the few good things he's done. Keep in mind that he's only played 66 games out of a possible 138 (so less than 50%) in the time since he was drafted and has kicked just 65 goals in that time. Not what I'd call a "required player".

Edited April 8, 2019 by La Dee-vina Comedia