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Edited August 13, 20186 yr by stitches

Its the 5% im worried about!!

 

 

Champion Data are rubbish.

With that said and looking at the draw, I think we’ll fall over the line by percentage without winning another game.  It’ll be absurd, and some may even say undeserving, but we’ll make it.

Stats never tell the full story. We look good on paper, just look at our percentage. But it can never measure the mental strength that we seem to lack.

 

  On 13/08/2018 at 08:44, Jibroni said:

Its the 5% im worried about!!

 

 

:-(

 

and I would prefer the 9% of being premiers 

:-)

 

Statistics are only correct 60% of the time and are wrong another 60% !

I think we were the same odds at round 23 last year.

  On 13/08/2018 at 08:49, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Champion Data are rubbish.

With that said and looking at the draw, I think we’ll fall over the line by percentage without winning another game.  It’ll be absurd, and some may even say undeserving, but we’ll make it.

So you are expecting port to lose last game against the Essendon? 

The St.Kilda game is going to bite us on the ass. Never should have lost to a woeful team like that disgusting.

  On 15/08/2018 at 10:34, bandicoot said:

So you are expecting port to lose last game against the Essendon? 

If Essendon turn up to play (Collingwood 2017) then they should beat a depleted Port.

  On 13/08/2018 at 08:44, Jibroni said:

Its the 5% im worried about!!

When it comes to defying the odds, Melbourne are elite!

"95% chance of making finals?! Hold my beer."

  On 15/08/2018 at 10:41, WERRIDEE said:

The St.Kilda game is going to bite us on the ass. Never should have lost to a woeful team like that disgusting.

No more than loosing to Geelong twice, Port and to Sydney last week.  This year it has been more just failing to get the job done against the better teams that has cost us.

Sure the St Kilda game was disapointing but many of the top sides have lost to lesser teams during the season, as I think the competition is that close where you have a bad game, an underdog has a good one and senses a victory and gets up on the day.  We have done pretty well by AFL standards getting the job done against lesser teams.

Geelong bad losses: Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon;

Hawthorn bad losses: Brisbane  (twice), North;

Port bad losses: Freo, Essendon, Adelaide;

Sydney bad losses: Suns, North;

GWS bad losses: St Kilda (draw), North, Essendon.

 

This not beating top teams thing is starting to get over hyped and over rated.  Last year we beat 4 top 8 teams (Adelaide, Port, Essendon and West Coast), but still missed finals, because we had dropped so many games to lesser sides.  I feel like we have been so much more competitive overall and consistently better this year, that I'm hoping we look at the lack of beating a top team to this point as more of a querk than any kind of mental deficiency or lack of ability.  It's about beating who ever is in front of you on a weekly basis and the rest is retrospect... but only time will tell in the next two weeks I guess.

  On 15/08/2018 at 15:01, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

No more than loosing to Geelong twice, Port and to Sydney last week.  This year it has been more just failing to get the job done against the better teams that has cost us.

Ah, some perspective, with a reasoned argument to back it up.

Rare around these parts at the moment.

Thank you.

  On 15/08/2018 at 10:41, WERRIDEE said:

The St.Kilda game is going to bite us on the ass. Never should have lost to a woeful team like that disgusting.

Clearly beating Geelong one time would have made a bigger difference.

We need to turn the corner. Worst thing for this team's development atm would be to lose both and miss finals.

Missing finals last year is imo what puts us in this situation again. Without breaking through the pressure and playing finals, they don't know of the actual level required to reach there. 

It's a chicken egg scenario: you can't know what it takes to make finals without actually making it. But how can you make it if you don't know how?

If we miss again I suspect Goodwin to go back to the drawing board and do a mini rebuild aka Richmond at the end of 2016. That may well mean hard decisions and a Deledio-type trade of a/some favourite sons.

Stats are quantifiable and accurate. We are not a 100% chance to make finals. We are a 95% chance based on our performance and statistics.

The 5% is an outlier and may be immeasurable in some capacity. 

  On 15/08/2018 at 15:01, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

No more than loosing to Geelong twice, Port and to Sydney last week.  This year it has been more just failing to get the job done against the better teams that has cost us.

Sure the St Kilda game was disapointing but many of the top sides have lost to lesser teams during the season, as I think the competition is that close where you have a bad game, an underdog has a good one and senses a victory and gets up on the day.  We have done pretty well by AFL standards getting the job done against lesser teams.

Geelong bad losses: Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon;

Hawthorn bad losses: Brisbane  (twice), North;

Port bad losses: Freo, Essendon, Adelaide;

Sydney bad losses: Suns, North;

GWS bad losses: St Kilda (draw), North, Essendon.

 

This not beating top teams thing is starting to get over hyped and over rated.  Last year we beat 4 top 8 teams (Adelaide, Port, Essendon and West Coast), but still missed finals, because we had dropped so many games to lesser sides.  I feel like we have been so much more competitive overall and consistently better this year, that I'm hoping we look at the lack of beating a top team to this point as more of a querk than any kind of mental deficiency or lack of ability.  It's about beating who ever is in front of you on a weekly basis and the rest is retrospect... but only time will tell in the next two weeks I guess.

There is no doubt we are better than last year, just look at percentage and when we get going can massacre teams, we couldn’t do it in the past.

A few areas where we need to improve:

- Defensive running (Swans ran harder than Melb, we got caught out a number of times)

- maximising forward entries (goal kicking against Swans and generally using the 60 plus entries we get each week better, lower eyes)

- Backline sits too high and would just love to see one defender sit in goalsquare more (pity Lever went down, things were improving during the 6 win streak)

- Missing Viney, he made a huge difference against Eagles & Port last year willing us over the line

Reflect on the point we are the highest scoring team in the league! If we improve forward entry and conversion that’s another 2-3 goals a game!

Anyway, 100% effort next two weeks, win then play finals, win one or more, and then we should be ready for something special next year!

Only 5% chance of missing? Our boys will take that as a challenge

  On 13/08/2018 at 08:49, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

Champion Data are rubbish.

With that said and looking at the draw, I think we’ll fall over the line by percentage without winning another game.  It’ll be absurd, and some may even say undeserving, but we’ll make it.

Funny you say that...it is possible. Depends on two games I think( outcomes ) 

Oh what a magnificent way to announce yourself into September !!

Edited August 15, 20186 yr by beelzebub

  On 15/08/2018 at 21:47, Mazer Rackham said:

Only 5% chance of missing? Our boys will take that as a challenge

And most likely succeed .....

(Winning ????)

We already hold the record for missing out on playing finals by percentage. This year if we miss, we might create two more records:

• highest percentage for a team missing finals; and
• missing finals by the smallest time gap. (If the siren had gone one second earlier in the second Geelong game, we wouldn't have lost it). 

Clint Data has us at less than a 10% chance of making the finals.

I'm not sure what to make of champion data, sometimes I actually think it's better to use your own eyes. (and I love stats, used in the right way)

And I also think the TAB are high with installing us $1.65 favorites to beat the hottest side in the league next week.

  On 15/08/2018 at 22:41, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

We already hold the record for missing out on playing finals by percentage. This year if we miss, we might create two more records:

• highest percentage for a team missing finals; and
• missing finals by the smallest time gap. (If the siren had gone one second earlier in the second Geelong game, we wouldn't have lost it). 

Don't know if it makes you feel any better but Zach Tuohy took that mark 7 seconds before the siren went, not one second. So we'll miss the finals by 7 seconds...

  On 15/08/2018 at 21:49, beelzebub said:

Funny you say that...it is possible. Depends on two games I think( outcomes ) 

Oh what a magnificent way to announce yourself into September !!

It's actually 4 games which makes it seriously unlikely we'll be limping into finals with 12 wins.

1. Richmond beating Essendon

2. Collingwood beating Port

3. Adelaide beating North

4. Essendon beating Port.