Run home to Finals - 2018

[John Demonic 5,747]

7 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Spot on.  The afl.com ladder predictor is terrible functionality wise.

Squiggle predictor is much easier to use, but only goes up to 65 points and you cant predict a draw.

If you click the box titled [SCORES] in the bottom left corner you can enter in your own bigger scores manually and create draws from there. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,762]

7 hours ago, Petraccattack said:

Squiggle predictor is much easier to use, but only goes up to 65 points and you cant predict a draw.

What use it that considering Geelong will rack up triple digit wins in their last 2 games.

[Chook 15,012]

Everyone's talking about worst-case scenarios, making the eight, top four, even getting to second…but I'll go you one better. For your consideration, I humbly present… 

The Dream Ladder
(Melbourne wins every game, and every underdog wins)

[SPC 3,532]

9 minutes ago, Chook said:

Everyone's talking about worst-case scenarios, making the eight, top four, even getting to second…but I'll go you one better. For your consideration, I humbly present… 

The Dream Ladder
(Melbourne wins every game, and every underdog wins)

You know it makes sense

[spirit of norm smith 16,269]

Actually hope Eagles beat Port !! I hate the eagles so hard to think about

[Rogue 585]

9 hours ago, Fifty-5 said:

Max Barry's footy data visualisation is 2nd to none

Yeah, it's great - makes the stats very accessible.

[Rogue 585]

34 minutes ago, Chook said:

Everyone's talking about worst-case scenarios, making the eight, top four, even getting to second…but I'll go you one better. For your consideration, I humbly present… 

The Dream Ladder
(Melbourne wins every game, and every underdog wins)

I think that'd mean Hawthorn first up at the 'G, a win and into the prelim v WCE at the 'G, and then onto the flag. I like it!

[Rogue 585]

Sadly Chook's dream ladder won't eventuate, but I think a Dees win on Sunday and a WB upset versus the Roos would make us a lock for finals.

We'd be two games and ~15% above the teams outside the top eight, with just two games to go.

Unlikely to occur, but it'll give me some interested in the early game at Etihad.

[titan_uranus 24,970]

On 8/9/2018 at 12:46 PM, Bring-Back-Powell said:

On the assumption we win 13 games and beat Sydney:

I'd rather Geelong beat Hawthorn.

Yeah sure Geelong will get to 14 wins, but the loser of Hawthorn v Sydney in rd 23 will likely miss the finals on 13 wins.

If Hawthorn beat Geelong, Geelong will still finish higher than us on percentage as they will win their last 2 games by a combined 200 points.

Geelong's only won two games all year by more than 60 and one of those was a 61 point win. They only beat Carlton by 28 points at Geelong earlier in the year, the week after we beat them by 100.

I'm not so sure Geelong is just going to romp to two consecutive 100-point wins.

And that doesn't take into account the points advantage we get in your scenario from beating Sydney.

And you're assuming Sydney beats GWS and Hawthorn to get to 14.

Now that Geelong has lost, if we win tomorrow the probabilities are firmly in our favour.

[deanox 9,897]

Ive had a quick play and from here:

-Win all three and finish 3rd

-Win any one or two games and finish 6th (i think there are a couple of permutations where we drop to 7th and one where we're climb to 5th)

-Lose all 3 and miss finals

 

I'm sure there are some scenarios where that doesn't play out but they will require major upsets.

Edited August 11, 2018 by deanox

[rpfc 28,257]

Highly likely that even if we win only one more we could have a home final. Assuming we are competitive in the other two games. 

If Haw beats Sydney in the last round they will be top4, if they don’t we could be 5th.

Dont see much value in that second win unless there is more drama around us.

[Dirts 429]

I am thinking we finish 5 th and will play Sydney or port at the G. 

Big game tomorrow and have decided watching may not be good for health!

[Rod Grinter Riot Squad 5,654]

Win all three, we finish third.

[deanox 9,897]

2 hours ago, rpfc said:

Highly likely that even if we win only one more we could have a home final. Assuming we are competitive in the other two games. 

If Haw beats Sydney in the last round they will be top4, if they don’t we could be 5th.

Dont see much value in that second win unless there is more drama around us.

Winning any one or two games will leave us 6th, with Sydney beating Hawthorn looks like the only real possibility* of us finishing 5th. And assuming we beat Sydney tomorrow, they will be out of the race in round 23 unless they beat GWS.

Win 3 and we will finish 3rd and have an away final against WC.

I must admit I see lots of value in the second win because it means beating another finalist on the eve of finals, helping to create that belief which I hope translates to finals. 

Someone said earlier this week that a win tomorrow could set us on a roll towards late September but a Los could see us miss entirely.  I agree with this. 

 

 

* the other possibilities involve Collingwood losing to Freo or Port.

 

Edited August 11, 2018 by deanox

[titan_uranus 24,970]

If we win three, then we finish third (second if Brisbane upsets West Coast in the final round).

If we win two, it looks like we'll finish somewhere in the 4-6 region, I think.

If we win one, it's probably something like 6-9, depending on other results.

If we don't win another game, we'll finish 9-11.

[david_neitz_is_my_dad 4,083]

Pls no. Dont put yourselves through it yet. Atleast wait till tomorrow night

[praha 11,233]

Ideally, 2nd, 4th, 5th or 6th to avoid having to travel to Perth. 

 

[Moonshadow 17,675]

Not sure where we'll finish or who we play, but i reckon this mob are steadily developing an 'anywhere, anyone, anytime' mentality. 

Building to something special, certainly not complete, but not far away. Maybe not this year, but something is different this time. 

I believe.

[deanox 9,897]

2 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

If we win three, then we finish third (second if Brisbane upsets West Coast in the final round).

If we win two, it looks like we'll finish somewhere in the 4-6 region, I think.

If we win one, it's probably something like 6-9, depending on other results.

If we don't win another game, we'll finish 9-11.

I'm not sure we're can miss if we win one, unless crazy results go against us. 

If we win one game then three of the following would need to happen for us to miss:

-Geelong would need to win 2 by 85+ points.

-Port would need to beat both Collingwood (mcg) and Essendon (AO)

-North would need to win all 3 of Dogs, Adelaide (AO) and St Kilda.

-Sydney would need to win 2 of Demons,  GWS (spotless) and Hawthorn (SCG).

 

 

[Dirts 429]

1 minute ago, Moonshadow said:

Not sure where we'll finish or who we play, but i reckon this mob are steadily developing an 'anywhere, anyone, anytime' mentality. 

Building to something special, certainly not complete, but not far away. Maybe not this year, but something is different this time. 

I believe.

For me, make the eight is the step we need. Win or lose, doesn’t matter. 

2019 I predict big things. Gaff in the red and blue, weeds a tap ruck/ forward, lever in back line with frost, omac, hibs and jets, Hoges, tmac and milkshake smashing goals and the engine room of Oliver brays petracca and Tyson being supplied by the bearded giant. 

This is not including a surprise draft pick and a trade. 

Just win tomorrow chaps and let’s give the dees supporters so long overdue joy! 

 

[Dirts 429]

Just now, Dirts said:

For me, make the eight is the step we need. Win or lose, doesn’t matter. 

2019 I predict big things. Gaff in the red and blue, weeds a tap ruck/ forward, lever in back line with frost, omac, hibs and jets, Hoges, tmac and milkshake smashing goals and the engine room of Oliver brays petracca and Tyson being supplied by the bearded giant. 

This is not including a surprise draft pick and a trade. 

Just win tomorrow chaps and let’s give the dees supporters so long overdue joy! 

 

Eagles winning also means I less week we can’t play him! 

[brendan 3,434]

Been playing around with ladder predictor if we only win 1 game I can’t see us falling lower than 7th, win the next 2 games then round 23 v Giants is massive, winner gets 3rd loser gets 6th 

[Engorged Onion 10,215]

I might be the only one on this forum, I am genuinely confident that we can win the next three - insofar as, not that we will, but we certainly can, based on our game plan and players. 

IMO - for the record, aside from three weeks (Richmond Hawthorn, St Kilda) where one of the teams was too good (Richmond) and the other two after quarter time we did not bring intensity/spread etc - yes we've had close losses which is disappointing, and the margins of error for a win or a loss are small sometimes.

Melbourne can comfortably beat anyone, anywhere. 

[Lucifers Hero 39,559]

After the game Pyke said:  "...he hadn't thought about...how to handle the next fortnight..."

They play North and Pies. 

Will Crows put the cue in the rack and consolidate their spot for a better draft pick for those talented SA draftees or will they play for pride.  That can have a massive impact on the final 8, including our chances, if it comes down to the wire.

With Tex likely to be out I reckon they will shut up shop.?

Edited August 11, 2018 by Lucifer's Hero

[The Chazz 4,077]

Not sure if it has been mentioned on here yet, but it's actually possible for us to make 8th spot without winning another game.  Would require North losing today and next week (against Adelaide in Adelaide), as well as Port losing their last two (which are against Collingwood here, and Essendon over there).

Effectively means Geelong repose Port in the current Top 8.