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Looking ahead ... the Path to September


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11 hours ago, GoD's67 said:

Glass half full view:

Been a season of upsets, we need to hope we can upset the Saints next week!

3 wins at the G would be enough for a spot in the 8!

Glass half empty:

September holidays!

Glass half full: We don't have to play North Melbourne in September

Glass half empty: We don't have to play North Melbourne in September

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If we win all 3 games we will likely finish 7th. If we win 2 we will likely finish 9th due to percentage. 
Every game from here onwards is now an elimination final. Do the players have the mental toughness to stand up and at least make finals? Or is this another year of failure?
To go from top 4 striking distance (sitting outside on percentage) to missing finals altogether would be disaster. Anything less than finals in 2017 is a failure for the club.

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We've been hovering around the lower half of the Top 8 for the whole season, besides Rounds 6-11 where we were outside of the Top 8. I think some of us got a bit excited in believing the Dees could truly finish Top 4. The lower half of the Top 8 is probably a more realistic expectation for us given the ladder progression this year.

The season definitely isn't over though, given how close 5th to 11th is right now. At the moment Port Adelaide are 5th on 44 points, we're 10th on 40 points. Winning against St Kilda will change the whole scenario potentially putting us back in the 8 with 2 rounds to go. Especially with Brisbane at the G the following week.

The one thing against us is the percentage, we could be sneaking into 8th right now on percentage alone. Instead, we need to rely on wins, which I don't necessarily see as a negative. We should be aiming to get into the 8 on wins, rather than relying on other results and percentage (mind you if we get in on percentage I definitely won't complain). Who knew footy was as simple as winning games!

There is no way I'm turning my back on the season right now, especially with the prospects of the final run of 3 games.

The good news is we have a bit of a break now to recover and get ready to smash the Saints at our home on Sunday. I'll be back in this thread next week to either salivate with the rest of you on the run home, or crying into my keyboard at the missed opportunities!

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5 hours ago, Webber said:

On current form we will win none of the last 3 games. It's that simple. Somehow, Goodwin and co. have to reverse the present mentality, deal with tiring younger players, find an answer to the diappearance of the swarming desperation around the contest that marked our best games, and get the players to take ownership. This is key, and seems woefully lacking. That GWS scored 8 goals in 15 minutes without a forward line (their 3 leading goal scorers, FFS!) tells me that even if we re-discover patches of our best, we are horribly brittle at the worst time of the year.

Next Sunday will tell us all, but I fear that up against the likes of inspiring leaders like a retiring Nick Riewoldt with a last sniff of finals action, we will get utterly thumped. Call it MFCSS if you like, but I've seen this movie before (for 52 years) and nothing about this team and its capitulations tells me it's going to be different this time. The sadder potential outcome is that once more the football world will justifiably see us as pretenders, and laughably uncompetitive, which is a pervasive psyche and one the younger players could take into next year. As for destination club status, we will drop miles off it again. We've talked about season defining games a lot this year, but this Sunday's game truly wears that infamy. 

C'mon Webber - you can do better than that.  EVERY team this year has had a down period, ours has come at a tough time and we need to turn it around quickly, but we have the team to do it.  In top form just 2 weeks ago vs Port at the MCG.

That's easy for me to say because I went to Casey v Sandy on Saturday - missed the GWS v MFC game and am unlikely to watch it on replay ...

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3 hours ago, Lord Travis said:

If we win all 3 games we will likely finish 7th. If we win 2 we will likely finish 9th due to percentage. 
Every game from here onwards is now an elimination final. Do the players have the mental toughness to stand up and at least make finals? Or is this another year of failure?
To go from top 4 striking distance (sitting outside on percentage) to missing finals altogether would be disaster. Anything less than finals in 2017 is a failure for the club.

This.

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14 minutes ago, Fifty-5 said:

C'mon Webber - you can do better than that.  EVERY team this year has had a down period, ours has come at a tough time and we need to turn it around quickly, but we have the team to do it.  In top form just 2 weeks ago vs Port at the MCG.

That's easy for me to say because I went to Casey v Sandy on Saturday - missed the GWS v MFC game and am unlikely to watch it on replay ...

Don't. 

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5 minutes ago, Webber said:

Don't. 

I turned in on at the 5 min mark and saw us 3 goals up against the wind.

Wow I thought....here we go.

Then the 2 goals by GWS and when that leg break bounce by Scully of all players, I heard our finals chance break with it.

I knew it wasnt going to be our day and thought we put ourselves in the possie of having to win 3 in a row. The first of which will be the hardest. Having said that if we do win we will certainly beat Brisbane. Then its only one game to win against pies....not impossible.

I know this club is heartbreaking to follow ....hold out another week my friend.

 

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I've got Melbourne and probably the Bulldogs making up the top 8.

It seems form can be lost or found pretty quickly this year.  

Bulldogs – Tough run home. GWS at Etihad, Port in Ballarat, then finish with the Hawks. Could win all of them, or none of them. Should probably at least beat Port, which gives them 48 points at the very worst, beat the Hawks and they should make it.

Essendon – Adelaide this week is tough. Fantasia out, Zach Merrett likely suspended. I can’t see Essendon winning, a smashing at the hands of the Crows means a significant loss of percentage. Should, and I repeat should, win the last 2 games against Gold Coast and Freo, but funny things happen when Essendon play crap teams. 2 wins there give Essendon 48 points. It will all depend on the % lost this week to the Crows as to whether 48 points is enough.

WCE – Will beat Carlton at Domain this week, but then have GWS at Spotless and finish with Adelaide in Perth. At this stage, I’m giving them 1 more win, leaving them on 44 points.

Melbourne – Remarkably could lose to Saints and still make it. Play Brisbane and Collingwood to finish, both at MCG. I reckon Collingwood is a really tricky game to finish with though. But if they won both of them, including a big win over Brisbane, they finish on 48 points, with a % boost from the Brisbane win, they could leap frog both Essendon and WCE. Win this week against the Saints, and are just about in the box seat to make it.  

St Kilda – Due to their poor %, they really have to win all 3, which would include beating Richmond in the last round. Obviously a massive one this week against Melbourne, but will beat NM next week.   

 

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5 minutes ago, Ash35 said:

I've got Melbourne and probably the Bulldogs making up the top 8.

It seems form can be lost or found pretty quickly this year.  

Bulldogs – Tough run home. GWS at Etihad, Port in Ballarat, then finish with the Hawks. Could win all of them, or none of them. Should probably at least beat Port, which gives them 48 points at the very worst, beat the Hawks and they should make it.

Essendon – Adelaide this week is tough. Fantasia out, Zach Merrett likely suspended. I can’t see Essendon winning, a smashing at the hands of the Crows means a significant loss of percentage. Should, and I repeat should, win the last 2 games against Gold Coast and Freo, but funny things happen when Essendon play crap teams. 2 wins there give Essendon 48 points. It will all depend on the % lost this week to the Crows as to whether 48 points is enough.

WCE – Will beat Carlton at Domain this week, but then have GWS at Spotless and finish with Adelaide in Perth. At this stage, I’m giving them 1 more win, leaving them on 44 points.

Melbourne – Remarkably could lose to Saints and still make it. Play Brisbane and Collingwood to finish, both at MCG. I reckon Collingwood is a really tricky game to finish with though. But if they won both of them, including a big win over Brisbane, they finish on 48 points, with a % boost from the Brisbane win, they could leap frog both Essendon and WCE. Win this week against the Saints, and are just about in the box seat to make it.  

St Kilda – Due to their poor %, they really have to win all 3, which would include beating Richmond in the last round. Obviously a massive one this week against Melbourne, but will beat NM next week.   

 

You are implying that any serious finals contender would beat NM????  Sadly you are probably right.

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7 hours ago, SFebey said:

We will beat Brisbane but lose other two, players have shut up shop. Top 4 on the line and thrown in the towel.

interestingly I think come finals Dogs' will have won 7 straight imo

It does seem like the players mentally has changed and we are now rudderless.

Will take something extraordinary to change direction now  

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7 minutes ago, monoccular said:

You are implying that any serious finals contender would beat NM????  Sadly you are probably right.

I think like a lot of teams that can't play finals, they get to about a month to go and they "target" a game to really get themselves up for.

Unfortunately for Melbourne, I reckon North had last week as their "last hurrah" for 2017. They have this amazing record against Melbourne, and playing in Tassie, they had a real crack. The North Melbourne I saw Saturday night against Collingwood look like they have checked out for the year.

 

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Petty it may be, but I am happy to see other top 8 teams struggle with injuries and suspension and not us for once

Merret - one week, is massive against crows

Mumford

Hawkins, Duncan and Selwood, wheels falling off? Cats should fall out of the top 4, not sure id like to get them down in geelong if we finish 8th though

we need to get into form ASAP - like right now.  come out and smash the saints and get back ontrack.  we can still turn this season around

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2 hours ago, DubDee said:

Petty it may be, but I am happy to see other top 8 teams struggle with injuries and suspension and not us for once

Merret - one week, is massive against crows

Mumford

Hawkins, Duncan and Selwood, wheels falling off? Cats should fall out of the top 4, not sure id like to get them down in geelong if we finish 8th though

we need to get into form ASAP - like right now.  come out and smash the saints and get back ontrack.  we can still turn this season around

Zero chance if we finish 8th we would play geelong in geelong, not even the AFL Is that stupid 

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Our best is better than St Kilda's best ... ditto for Brisbane & Collingwood.  So if we can produce our best in the next 3 games, we'll win all 3 games. 

I'm expecting a 100% performance against the Saints ... we're coming off an 8 day break so we should be freshened up.  At this stage of the season it's not a matter of fitness, it's more so getting over little niggles and the trackwork wouldn't be heavy.

The way footy is played these days not having Hogan is by no means a catastrophe.  You'd obviously rather have him playing but we can still have a functioning forward line without him.

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For whatever reason, the Saints don't impress me.

Their midfield isn't very dynamic, their backline is solid, but their forward line appears hit and miss.

They don't seem to play at the MCG a lot, so that should work in Melbournes favour.

Provided the bottom hasn't completely fallen out of Melbourne, I really do think the Dees get up this week.

Essendons chances against Adelaide are diminishing by the day. West Coast should beat the Blues, so you may have to wait a week to get back into the 8, but a decent win against Brisbane the week after, and it's all set up for some finals action.

Could be 1987 all over again, with 3 or 4 teams heading into the last round a chance to play finals.

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1 hour ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

A draw this week to St Kilda is effectively a win... assuming we win our last 2.

Unless the Dons shock Adelaide, the most they can finish with is 12-10. We'd be 12-9-1 in the above scenario.

An interesting observation, but I think (and hope) it's very much an academic one.  Aiming for a draw is one point off getting a loss, when the team should be aiming to put as big a margin on St Kilda as possible to put the game beyond doubt and then not stop there and grind them into the ground for the sake of percentage.

Not that I'm expecting we will nessasrily be in this position, but if we are well on top of St Kilda at 3/4 time, you could imagine they might drop their bundle pretty badly once finals are pretty much gone for them.

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5 hours ago, Macca said:

Our best is better than St Kilda's best ... ditto for Brisbane & Collingwood.  So if we can produce our best in the next 3 games, we'll win all 3 games. 

I'm expecting a 100% performance against the Saints ... we're coming off an 8 day break so we should be freshened up.  At this stage of the season it's not a matter of fitness, it's more so getting over little niggles and the trackwork wouldn't be heavy.

The way footy is played these days not having Hogan is by no means a catastrophe.  You'd obviously rather have him playing but we can still have a functioning forward line without him.

I also think Garlett is more likely to kick a bag at the G

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Some of the pessimism on this forum is palpable at the moment, typified by @Danelska's thread Lack of Finals = Failed Season?.  Seasons not over yet, @Nasher, please shut down the aforementioned topic.

 

We are presently in the best position to make finals thay we have been in over a decade.  Win three very winnable games and we are almost assured of playing finals.  If we loose to any of those teams, we don't deserve to play finals anyway.  Yes our form has dipped over the last month in the absence of our A grade midfield, but few clubs in the AFL could have maintained their best form in the face of the injuries we had over that period.  It happens otherwise sometimes, but again most players take a week or two to hit their straps upon return (i.e. Jones, Watts).  Our best footy this year is capable of beating any side in the comp, we just need to find that in the next few weeks.

 

Melbourne supporters need to turn out on mass to all of our three remaining games at the MCG, get behind the boys and hopefully some where else the week after that when we will be again playing in September.

 

CARN THE MIGHTY DEMONS!

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@Rodney (Balls) Grinter - mmmm the topic thread title is hardly pessimistic, nor optimistic - merely a question to get the masses thoughts.Personally, I concur with the fact we have made giant strides this year and would be surprised if we don't prosper over the next 5 years or so.

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1 hour ago, Danelska said:

@Rodney (Balls) Grinter - mmmm the topic thread title is hardly pessimistic, nor optimistic - merely a question to get the masses thoughts.Personally, I concur with the fact we have made giant strides this year and would be surprised if we don't prosper over the next 5 years or so.

Sorry, no, the topic of your thread was pessimistic, because it framed the topic in a negative way, which is yet to occur, which somewhat sets the tone of the tread there after.  A neutral topic would have been something like "How will we measure the success of our season" or personally I prefer the positive framing of the question of "What would playing finals mean to our club".

Each to their own and if you and other want to be the Eeyore's of the footy World, then go for it, but perhaps you'd be better on the ski slopes at Bulla than watching out Demons go about their business.  There may well be a time for preponderance of your question, but it is not now.  Now is the time to be getting behind our boys and supporting them onto September glory.

I believe we can make finals and looking forward to the ride.  Scraping into finals after being in a position to make them comfortabley is typical MFC way to finish the home and away since I have supported the might Red and Blue, so why should that stop now.  

It starts again this week against the Saints.

Edited by Rodney (Balls) Grinter
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On 07/08/2017 at 3:04 PM, Ash35 said:

I think like a lot of teams that can't play finals, they get to about a month to go and they "target" a game to really get themselves up for.

Unfortunately for Melbourne, I reckon North had last week as their "last hurrah" for 2017. They have this amazing record against Melbourne, and playing in Tassie, they had a real crack. The North Melbourne I saw Saturday night against Collingwood look like they have checked out for the year.

 

And they pick us , every year, twice ??

Gee we're unlucky :rolleyes:

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5 minutes ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Sorry, no, the topic of your thread was pessimistic, because it framed the topic in a negative way, which is yet to occur, which somewhat sets the tone of the tread there after.  A neutral topic would have been something like "How will we measure the success of our season" or personally I prefer the positive framing of the question of "What would playing finals mean to our club".

Each to their own and if you and other want to be the Eeyore's of the footy World, then go for it, but perhaps you'd be better on the ski slopes at Bulla than watching out Demons go about their business.  There may well be a time for preponderance of your question, but it is not now.  Now is the time to be getting behind our boys and supporting them onto September glory.

I believe we can make finals and looking forward to the ride.  Scraping into finals after being in a position to make them comfortabley is typical MFC way to finish the home and away since I have supported the might Red and Blue, so why should that stop now.

sigh...  I feel you're simply inferring things that aren't there... I'm sure I can't convince you to re read what I wrote on see it any differently.

Nonetheless..I'm super glad you're passionate about supporting the team and super passionate about getting people to do the same that you feel aren't as supportive as you.

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