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Looking ahead ... the Path to September


Diamond_Jim
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Because of the percentage gap to Port and Sydney, for us to overtake either of them and get a home final, one of them would need to drop both of their remaining games. In round 23 Port play GC and Sydney play Carlton, so it's hard to see either scenario eventuating. Realistically, seventh is the best we can aim for.

Of those two, I'd MUCH rather play Port in the first week than Sydney, so if the Swans do lose to the Crows on Friday night, we need to be barracking for the Dogs to beat Port on Saturday, otherwise Port move to 5th, Sydney drops to 6th, and we're (likely) off to the SCG. That's contingent, of course, on us winning both of our remaining games.

The absolute best case scenario would be if us, the Swans and Port all win in the last two rounds, and Richmond drop one (they've got Freo over there and the Saints at the MCG). In that scenario, Richmond are 6th and we're 7th, and the stage is set for a blockbuster MCG elimination final. Given the abysmal form of the Dockers and Saints, I doubt it would happen, but it's Richmond, so you never know.

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36 minutes ago, bananas said:

Because of the percentage gap to Port and Sydney, for us to overtake either of them and get a home final, one of them would need to drop both of their remaining games. In round 23 Port play GC and Sydney play Carlton, so it's hard to see either scenario eventuating. Realistically, seventh is the best we can aim for.

Of those two, I'd MUCH rather play Port in the first week than Sydney, so if the Swans do lose to the Crows on Friday night, we need to be barracking for the Dogs to beat Port on Saturday, otherwise Port move to 5th, Sydney drops to 6th, and we're (likely) off to the SCG. That's contingent, of course, on us winning both of our remaining games.

The absolute best case scenario would be if us, the Swans and Port all win in the last two rounds, and Richmond drop one (they've got Freo over there and the Saints at the MCG). In that scenario, Richmond are 6th and we're 7th, and the stage is set for a blockbuster MCG elimination final. Given the abysmal form of the Dockers and Saints, I doubt it would happen, but it's Richmond, so you never know.

Port are definitely beatable at Adelaide. Saint should have won and Collingwood put in a good effort yesterday. I'm still concerned that people are pencilling in the Pies in round 23, I think they've played much better than people give them credit for this year. 

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On 8/7/2017 at 10:03 AM, DeeWiz said:

The good news is we have a bit of a break now to recover and get ready to smash the Saints at our home on Sunday. I'll be back in this thread next week to either salivate with the rest of you on the run home, or crying into my keyboard at the missed opportunities!

Crying averted for another week! I was really hoping I'd be opening this thread and typing this reply today.

A percentage booster against Brissie would be helpful please lads.

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1 hour ago, dl4e said:

Why is playing Brisbane this week filling me with horror. It is annoying but I can't help it. They are one of the best last placed teams I have seen in a long time.

Because we are good at losing the games we should win as evidenced by this years 4 losses to bottom 4 teams and for the last month Lions have been playing well above their 18th ladder position.

Their forwards and backs are raw but talented and they have a very experienced and strong midfield including:  Martin, Zorko, Beams, Bastinac, Rich, Taylor, Rockliff.

And, they are hungry for a scalp...they are looking directly at us for it. 

We underestimate them at our peril

Edited by Lucifer's Hero
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If we make it and have to play a Thursday night final I will be f*****g livered... There's talk that it will be in Adelaide but if Adelaide are playing a Richmond I doubt they'd put it on the Thursday night so might leave us vs Port on the Thursday night.. Watch us get shafted if Essendon sneaks into 8th and plays Sydney... We'll be the ones left with the [censored] time slot

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14 hours ago, Copuchas said:

I think you're overlooking that Adelaide may well have nothing to play for in Round 23 and might take half a team to Perth.

Very, Very unlikely to happen since the bye afterwards and then a win, would equate to these players only playing 1 game in 3 weeks leading up to a Prelim final!!!!  No coach would be happy with that

 

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12 minutes ago, Ungarie boy said:

Very, Very unlikely to happen since the bye afterwards and then a win, would equate to these players only playing 1 game in 3 weeks leading up to a Prelim final!!!!  No coach would be happy with that

 

Perhaps.  But the other scenario is they throw the game because they'd prefer to have West Coast (who can't get a home final under any scenario) in the 8 instead of the Dees.  And remember, it is the last game of round 23 so all the permutations of week 1 finals match-ups (and beyond) will be known.

So I reiterate, we need to beat the Lions and the Pies

Edited by Copuchas
omission
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36 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Because we are good at losing the games we should win as evidenced by this years 4 losses to bottom 4 teams and for the last month Lions have been playing well above their 18th ladder position.

Their forwards and backs are raw but talented and they have a very experienced and strong midfield including:  Martin, Zorko, Beams, Bastinac, Rich, Taylor, Rockliff.

We underestimate them at our peril

No idea how they were given an extra pick in last years draft?? 

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19 minutes ago, JV7 said:

If we make it and have to play a Thursday night final I will be f*****g livered... There's talk that it will be in Adelaide but if Adelaide are playing a Richmond I doubt they'd put it on the Thursday night so might leave us vs Port on the Thursday night.. Watch us get shafted if Essendon sneaks into 8th and plays Sydney... We'll be the ones left with the [censored] time slot

I think you are right. The least saleable match with be Melbourne vs Port and will be given Thursday night. 

Not a real issue IMO. We would have had a big enough break at that point already. 

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5 minutes ago, Copuchas said:

Perhaps.  But the other scenario is they throw the game because they'd prefer to have West Coast (who can't get a home final under any scenario) in the 8 instead of the Dees.  And remember, it is the last game of round 23 so all the permutations of week 1 finals match-ups (and beyond) will be known.

So I reiterate, we need to beat the Lions and the Pies

1 game in 3 weeks for your best players leading into a prelim courtesy of throwing a game (and introducing bad habits to do so) just to manoeuvre a perceived weaker team into the 8, who in all likelihood, won't last long enough to meet them. Not going to happen.

In fact it would be in their interests to have a combative Melbourne in the bottom half of the 8 so that the Crows other potential rivals will have to survive a real contested final game(s) (and with associated injuries, soreness, etc, likely to come with it) and not have an easy path through the finals.  

For similar reasons Sydney finishing 5-8 also suits the top teams (noting that they will be in the 8).   

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1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

Because we are good at losing the games we should win as evidenced by this years 4 losses to bottom 4 teams and for the last month Lions have been playing well above their 18th ladder position.

Their forwards and backs are raw but talented and they have a very experienced and strong midfield including:  Martin, Zorko, Beams, Bastinac, Rich, Taylor, Rockliff.

And, they are hungry for a scalp...they are looking directly at us for it. 

We underestimate them at our peril

I agree we underestimate Brisbane at our peril, that they are the best last placed side for a long time and that Brisbane will fancy themselves a chance given our losses to North and our far from impressive wins over Carlton but your stats are way off:

We've played bottom four teams 5 times( North x 2, Carlton x2, Gold Coast x 1 and Brisbane 0 as yet), for 3 wins 2 losses with a percentage of 111.4% across the five games and a mean average margin of +2 goals. So ultimately we are actually travelling pretty well against bottom teams.

We should've beaten North and if we don't rock up with intensity this weekend we will lose BUT I'm hoping for a big win and the stats say we're a strong chance.

 

Edited by deejammin'
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7 minutes ago, bandicoot said:

I think you are right. The least saleable match with be Melbourne vs Port and will be given Thursday night. 

Not a real issue IMO. We would have had a big enough break at that point already. 

I'm not too fussed for a team perspective moreso as a fan. I'll 100% be going interstate if we make it but would much prefer it be on the weekend or Friday night at worst. Thursday night would be shocking to travel, be nice to fly over thursday morning and spend a few days around Adelaide/Sydney before we play on the weekend.. Thursday would suck, fly over and lose and have the rest of the weekend drowning our sorrows

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39 minutes ago, JV7 said:

If we make it and have to play a Thursday night final I will be f*****g livered... There's talk that it will be in Adelaide but if Adelaide are playing a Richmond I doubt they'd put it on the Thursday night so might leave us vs Port on the Thursday night.. Watch us get shafted if Essendon sneaks into 8th and plays Sydney... We'll be the ones left with the [censored] time slot

Playing our first final on a Thursday night would be the best outcome. We would have had a ten day break beforehand and then possibly a nine day break before our next match. Plenty of time to have all our players rested and Hogan cherry ripe! 

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Just now, CBDees said:

Playing our first final on a Thursday night would be the best outcome. We would have had a ten day break beforehand and then possibly a nine day break before our next match. Plenty of time to have all our players rested and Hogan cherry ripe! 

See my above post... My concerns are for us as fans travelling interstate not from a team perspective

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6 minutes ago, JV7 said:

See my above post... My concerns are for us as fans travelling interstate not from a team perspective

I get that, but if it means that our players front up in the best condition then that is a sacrifice that most members will endure.

With Port' and Sydney both a game clear and 17% clear of us on percentage, we have to travel interstate  regardless so I would rather see a date that assists our team's preparation than is convenient to the fans.

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Not sure how from a team preparation whether we played Thursday night, friday night or Saturday/saturday night matters ? The week off before hand means if we have 10 days, 11 days or 12 days... Not much difference

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3 minutes ago, JV7 said:

Not sure how from a team preparation whether we played Thursday night, friday night or Saturday/saturday night matters ? The week off before hand means if we have 10 days, 11 days or 12 days... Not much difference

I was alluding to the following week where we would get 8, 9 or 10 days break by playing on Thursday (c.f. Sunday where we might end up with only a 5, 6 or 7 day break)!

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Brisbane have been playing some good footy lately, but it really is time we stopped this ridiculous habit of going half rat power against bottom sides then making excuses when we lose.

Full intensity in the first quarter as we saw against St Kilda and Port and we shouldn't have too much trouble getting the W.

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