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Looking ahead ... the Path to September


Diamond_Jim
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I think the Tigs will win the next two and stay top 4. This would see Sydney fifth.

If we sneak in and don't play the swans we could easily knock over say a port at the G and then potentially have the tigs the week after. 

We would all be confident of winning that getting a very you group to the prelim.

I'm definitely worried about GWS, Sydney and the Crows. When these boys are on I think we will come up short but if the cards fall the right way we still could still do some serious damage and really build a solid platform.

Still.... I'm not gonna expect anything less than the flag as I'm a greedy bastard 

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Wow, just noticed the AFL have used their rolling round 23 fixture to slug us with yet ANOTHER 6 day break.  Our 9th of the season,  more than any other club.

No other finals contender has a 6 day break in round 23, in fact the majority have 8 days.

How the hell is this fair?

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You can stick a fork in St Kilda.

They would need to win their next (Kangas, Tigers) two by a combined 200 points just to make up %, and theyd then need us and the Doggies to lose a game.

Theyre finished, adios.

West Coast have GWS and Adelaide. THey are in trouble.

Essendrug have a danger game this week up at the GOld Coast, and an easy one in ROund 23 at home to Freo.  THey would need to win both and have Melbourne or the Doggies drop one of their last two.

Smart money says Melbourne and the Doggies will make the 8.

 

Edited by Petraccattack
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10 minutes ago, Petraccattack said:

You can stick a fork in St Kilda.

They would need to win their next (Kangas, Tigers) two by a combined 200 points just to make up %, and theyd then need us and the Doggies to lose a game.

Theyre finished, adios.

West Coast have GWS and Adelaide. THey are in trouble.

Essendrug have a danger game this week up at the GOld Coast, and an easy one in ROund 23 at home to Freo.  THey would need to win both and have Melbourne or the Doggies drop one of their last two.

Smart money says Melbourne and the Doggies will make the 8.

 

You may be right but Dogs have Port and Hawthorn to come.

Neither is an easy game.

On probability   alone... Essendon and ourselves are the favourites but we all know what can happen to favourites

Going to be another long week

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Questions -

Is there a round of VFL on during the bye week before the finals?

Can we play anyone i.e. Hogan over the bye weekend in the VFL if fit and in need of match practice before the finals?

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Win both, we're in.

If we win only one, and finish 12-10, we will need the Dogs and West Coast to each lose at least one (and for us to maintain our percentage over both) and to maintain percentage over Essendon (who are capable of belting GC and Fremantle). Even if St Kilda win both (requiring an upset over Richmond, playing for top 4, at the G), their percentage is so far behind that they shouldn't be able to catch up.

I can see the Dogs dropping one of their Port/Hawthorn games, and I can certainly see West Coast losing both their games (GWS and Adelaide). That would give us a good chance of staying 8th at 12-10 (with Essendon passing us on percentage but holding the Dogs off on percentage).

If we win next week, the Dogs lose to Port and West Coast loses to GWS, we will very, very nearly be there without needing to beat Collingwood. We will actually be there if somehow GC beats Essendon, too (as the percentage gap over the Dogs and St Kilda should mean they can't pass us).

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10 minutes ago, Jaded said:

Dream scenario Tigers finish 5th and it's us vs Richmond first up. 100,000 people at the G. Would be rather glorious. 

Most likely we we will Port or Sydney. 

That's a good one, but the real dream scenario is we play port over there, win, then back up in the Semi Final vs Richmond (after they lose to Adelaide).

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7 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Win both, we're in.

If we win only one, and finish 12-10, we will need the Dogs and West Coast to each lose at least one (and for us to maintain our percentage over both) and to maintain percentage over Essendon (who are capable of belting GC and Fremantle). Even if St Kilda win both (requiring an upset over Richmond, playing for top 4, at the G), their percentage is so far behind that they shouldn't be able to catch up.

I can see the Dogs dropping one of their Port/Hawthorn games, and I can certainly see West Coast losing both their games (GWS and Adelaide). That would give us a good chance of staying 8th at 12-10 (with Essendon passing us on percentage but holding the Dogs off on percentage).

If we win next week, the Dogs lose to Port and West Coast loses to GWS, we will very, very nearly be there without needing to beat Collingwood. We will actually be there if somehow GC beats Essendon, too (as the percentage gap over the Dogs and St Kilda should mean they can't pass us).

I think you're overlooking that Adelaide may well have nothing to play for in Round 23 and might take half a team to Perth.

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typo
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7 minutes ago, titan_uranus said:

Win both, we're in.

If we win only one, and finish 12-10, we will need the Dogs and West Coast to each lose at least one (and for us to maintain our percentage over both) and to maintain percentage over Essendon (who are capable of belting GC and Fremantle). Even if St Kilda win both (requiring an upset over Richmond, playing for top 4, at the G), their percentage is so far behind that they shouldn't be able to catch up.

I can see the Dogs dropping one of their Port/Hawthorn games, and I can certainly see West Coast losing both their games (GWS and Adelaide). That would give us a good chance of staying 8th at 12-10 (with Essendon passing us on percentage but holding the Dogs off on percentage).

If we win next week, the Dogs lose to Port and West Coast loses to GWS, we will very, very nearly be there without needing to beat Collingwood. We will actually be there if somehow GC beats Essendon, too (as the percentage gap over the Dogs and St Kilda should mean they can't pass us).

Did you remember to carry over the 1.

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5 hours ago, PaulRB said:

Questions -

Is there a round of VFL on during the bye week before the finals?

Can we play anyone i.e. Hogan over the bye weekend in the VFL if fit and in need of match practice before the finals?

My understanding is yes... there was a ruling out a few weeks back

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Flew over the Italian Alps today. I could see lots of mountain paths but I am not sure which one lead to September.

Then again I am now staying in a village on a road called the "Via 24 Septembre"

Sounds like an omen to me for at least a Prelim final.... Oh what it is to dream :)

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Flew over the Italian Alps today. I could see lots of mountain paths but I am not sure which one lead to September.

Then again I am now staying in a village on a road called the "Via 24 Septembre"

Sounds like an omen to me for at least a Prelim final.... Oh what it is to dream :)

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Flew over the Italian Alps today. I could see lots of mountain paths but I am not sure which one lead to September.

Then again I am now staying in a village on a road called the "Via 24 Septembre"

Sounds like an omen to me for at least a Prelim final.... Oh what it is to dream :)

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9 hours ago, Copuchas said:

I think you're overlooking that Adelaide may well have nothing to play for in Round 23 and might take half a team to Perth.

True.

Indeed, Adelaide has locked in a top 2 finish already.

If they tank Round 23, and West Coast wins it, then we'll need to ensure we maintain our percentage gap over them (which is currently minute). A big win to GWS next week would do us wonders.

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