The Petracca v McCartin debate reprised

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

29 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Paul Robinson's article on Petracca.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2017/05/04/melbourne-young-gun-better-than-ablett-and-gray/

I was listening to SEN when it was announced one ex demon was absolutely wetting his pants with excitement. Theox.

Of course I was almost doing the same but at my age you do that without any excitement.

[jnrmac 20,055]

On 5/2/2017 at 5:35 AM, Demon Disciple said:

Ok, i'll bite. At pick #9, who do you think we should have drafted instead of Weideman?

Hmm as he scans the 2015 draft. Daniel Rioli...

Such a waste of time doing retrospective drafting. It's pretty easy though.

I think Weid will work out just fine. Good pair of hands and likes to fly at the ball.

[jnrmac 20,055]

On 5/1/2017 at 5:20 PM, Redleg said:

Bugg 35 possies and 5 goals for Casey and didn't see him on Sunday. 

VFL is not the AFL.

Totally different roles. Not a like for like comparison.

[Skuit 10,031]

3 hours ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Paul Robinson's article on Petracca.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2017/05/04/melbourne-young-gun-better-than-ablett-and-gray/

This article is a bit meaningless. Petracca has better early stats than some people who turned out good?

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,486]

On 5/2/2017 at 2:58 AM, Fitz Fitzpatrick said:

club made a big error in drafting for needs instead of best available when going for Wiedeman. forced the issue and i think we have Lucas cook Mk2. i get the whole 'talls take time ' argument and totally agree.

However , GOOD talls that take time, show some glimpses along the journey. Weed shows no hunger for the contest nor ability to find the ball. of course hes got a limited tank but the talented fwds show a bit. 

Weed is a bust i fear. 

Goldne rule - draft best available and trade for needs using the players drafted as currency. Club forced it out of desperation for a F50 partner for Hogan. we will regret it

We traded ourselves into a position to draft Weideman because he wasn't going to make it to our next pick, he was the best available.

He attacks the ball in the air with ferocity, he's clean with his hands and he's both a good set shot and field kick.  What he needs is 10kg so he's not move off the ball so easily both on the ground and in the air.  I have no idea how you've come to the conclusion that he has 'no hunger for the contest'??  In the games he's played this year he's been battered from pillar to post flying for marks against 28yo, 95kg, KPDs.  He's made the contest and brought the ball to ground.  The one match he struggled to get the the contest, he had a corked thigh which kept him out of the team for the next round.

Weideman was on the radar for pick 6 all year, I fail to see the desperation.

[Bluey's Dad 3,419]

35 minutes ago, Skuit said:

This article is a bit meaningless. Petracca has better early stats than some people who turned out good?

Agreed.

Pretty sure Cale Mortan had some good early stats too.

[beelzebub 23,313]

3 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Hmm as he scans the 2015 draft. Daniel Rioli...

Such a waste of time doing retrospective drafting. It's pretty easy though.

I think Weid will work out just fine. Good pair of hands and likes to fly at the ball.

Agree. Typical tall kpd development period ahead.

Club knows where he's at ( now ) ...back to school. No soup...just yet. Handy to have on backburner.

[Gator 17,278]

2 hours ago, Skuit said:

This article is a bit meaningless. Petracca has better early stats than some people who turned out good?

The best bit to take out of the Champion Data stats is that in 2017 he's ranked the 6th best general forward in the competition. 

The other stats are irrelevant, because they're based on a comparison of 23 games and not the players' respective ages.  Ablett and Dangerfield were 19 through 23 games, so you wouldn't expect them to have the same due to a less mature body.  I recognise Petracca missed a year with  knee, but still consider his age a significant advantage.  Gray was the same age as Petracca after 23 games. 

[Redleg 40,834]

5 hours ago, jnrmac said:

Totally different roles. Not a like for like comparison.

AFL and VFL are also not like for like competitions.

[rjay 24,877]

I often think Champion data should stick to what they are good at.

Counting kicks, handballs and tackles etc at games....their analysis is often wide of the mark and they really are not qualified to give it.

A couple of examples come to mind but according to their analysis the Dogs had no chance of winning the premiership last year and we have the worst midfield in the AFL.

Stats have their place of course and are a good tool to have but many have been fooled into placing too much emphasis on them.

My eyes tell me that Petracca is heading in the right direction to becoming a very good player at a minimum and with all things going well could be an A grader, even a champion.

Still a bit of water to go under that bridge but I'm happy to have him.

[leave it to deever 17,511]

1 hour ago, rjay said:

A couple of examples come to mind but according to their analysis the Dogs had no chance of winning the premiership last year and we have the worst midfield in the AFL

I think their midfield review was before Oliver had asserted himself and before Lewis arrived. Remember how bad it was when Jones was tagged. Sometimes Vince picked up the slack.

Watching the Dons game when Viney fired, WOW....how wrong did CD seem.

[monoccular 17,413]

On 02/05/2017 at 4:58 AM, Fitz Fitzpatrick said:

club made a big error in drafting for needs instead of best available when going for Wiedeman. forced the issue and i think we have Lucas cook Mk2. i get the whole 'talls take time ' argument and totally agree.

However , GOOD talls that take time, show some glimpses along the journey. Weed shows no hunger for the contest nor ability to find the ball. of course hes got a limited tank but the talented fwds show a bit. 

Weed is a bust i fear. 

Goldne rule - draft best available and trade for needs using the players drafted as currency. Club forced it out of desperation for a F50 partner for Hogan. we will regret it

I note that this is a Petracca / McCartin thread but I will respond anyway, Mr Tunnelball.

Weideman has already shown far more in just over 1 season on the list than Lucas Cook, who I think we all now agree turned out to be a wasted pick, did in his whole time at Melbourne so the comparison is, IMO, just not there.

Weideman was the best available at that pick, and I for one am pretty happy with his progress  to date.  Nobody in their right mind would expect him to be the key forward at this stage of his career, but that is where he found himself when Jesse was suspended.  His last game he payed injured from early in the game.

I don't think we will see his consistent best for 18 months or so - I am happy he has had some AFL exposure and will watch with positive interest in his progress over the remainder of 2017.  I suspect, on the other hand, you will look for every negative and report them with glee. 

[Dante 2,739]

Everyone seems to think that Darcy Moore will be a star, so I've got a comparison between he and Weed when they were the same age, there's not a lot in it at this stage.

Player Statistics Comparison

Sam Weideman Name Darcy Moore Melbourne Demons Team Collingwood Magpies Forward Position Forward 7 Career Games 32 Eastern Ranges Origin Oakleigh Chargers June 26, 1997 Date of Birth January 25, 1996 Turned 19 in 2016 Age Turned 19 in 2015 195cm Height 201cm 94kg Weight 98kg 2015 National Draft Last Drafted In 2014 National Draft Round 1, Pick #9 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #9 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Collingwood Magpies 2016 Stats for Season 2015 3 Games 9 2.7 Kicks Per Game 5.4 5.7 Handballs Per Game 3.6 8.3 Disposals Per Game 9.0 3.0 Marks Per Game 3.2 1.0 Goals Per Game 1.0 0 Behinds Per Game 0.3 0 Tackles Per Game 1.8 0 Hitouts Per Game 2.6 0 Inside 50s Per Game 1.4 0 Goal Assists Per Game 0.2 0.3 Frees For Per Game 1.1 0.3 Frees Against Per Game 0.7 4.0 Contested Possessions Per Game 5.0 4.3 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 4.2 6.7 Effective Disposals Per Game 6.3 80.7% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 70% 0.7 Clangers Per Game 1.4 0.7 Contested Marks Per Game 1.0 1.0 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 1.2 0 Clearances Per Game 0.6 0 Rebound 50s Per Game 0.1 0.3 One Percenters Per Game 1.8 0 Bounces Per Game 0.1 78.7 Time On Ground % Per Game 80.2 33.7 AFL Fantasy Score Per Game 48.2 40.3 Supercoach Score Per Game 53.9

[old dee 23,781]

5 hours ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

We traded ourselves into a position to draft Weideman because he wasn't going to make it to our next pick, he was the best available.

He attacks the ball in the air with ferocity, he's clean with his hands and he's both a good set shot and field kick.  What he needs is 10kg so he's not move off the ball so easily both on the ground and in the air.  I have no idea how you've come to the conclusion that he has 'no hunger for the contest'??  In the games he's played this year he's been battered from pillar to post flying for marks against 28yo, 95kg, KPDs.  He's made the contest and brought the ball to ground.  The one match he struggled to get the the contest, he had a corked thigh which kept him out of the team for the next round.

Weideman was on the radar for pick 6 all year, I fail to see the desperation.

His worse game was actual the game before he was injured. One kick that day.

[Watts the matter 1,235]

9 minutes ago, Dante said:

Everyone seems to think that Darcy Moore will be a star, so I've got a comparison between he and Weed when they were the same age, there's not a lot in it at this stage.

Player Statistics Comparison

Sam Weideman Name Darcy Moore Melbourne Demons Team Collingwood Magpies Forward Position Forward 7 Career Games 32 Eastern Ranges Origin Oakleigh Chargers June 26, 1997 Date of Birth January 25, 1996 Turned 19 in 2016 Age Turned 19 in 2015 195cm Height 201cm 94kg Weight 98kg 2015 National Draft Last Drafted In 2014 National Draft Round 1, Pick #9 Last Draft Position Round 1, Pick #9 Melbourne Demons Last Drafted By Collingwood Magpies 2016 Stats for Season 2015 3 Games 9 2.7 Kicks Per Game 5.4 5.7 Handballs Per Game 3.6 8.3 Disposals Per Game 9.0 3.0 Marks Per Game 3.2 1.0 Goals Per Game 1.0 0 Behinds Per Game 0.3 0 Tackles Per Game 1.8 0 Hitouts Per Game 2.6 0 Inside 50s Per Game 1.4 0 Goal Assists Per Game 0.2 0.3 Frees For Per Game 1.1 0.3 Frees Against Per Game 0.7 4.0 Contested Possessions Per Game 5.0 4.3 Uncontested Possessions Per Game 4.2 6.7 Effective Disposals Per Game 6.3 80.7% Disposal Efficiency % Per Game 70% 0.7 Clangers Per Game 1.4 0.7 Contested Marks Per Game 1.0 1.0 Marks Inside 50 Per Game 1.2 0 Clearances Per Game 0.6 0 Rebound 50s Per Game 0.1 0.3 One Percenters Per Game 1.8 0 Bounces Per Game 0.1 78.7 Time On Ground % Per Game 80.2 33.7 AFL Fantasy Score Per Game 48.2 40.3 Supercoach Score Per Game 53.9

I'll bite. Moore has been a big disappointment this season.

He kicked 5 goals in his 3rd game of football. He has had impressive pre season games and I think most people really rate him based on his game against West Coast last season. Most people have figured him out now (don't let him run and jump at the ball).

The big difference between the two players is Darcy Moore is quick.

Darcy Moore kicked 24 goals in 17 games in his second season.

I'm on record as being critical of the selection of Weideman, it's due to the overall package. I agree he flies for his marks well but his inability to compete at ground level and change direction is a major concern.

On Petracca, I find it strange they didn't compare him to Stringer or Wingard, who play similar roles.

 

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,486]

15 minutes ago, old dee said:

His worse game was actual the game before he was injured. One kick that day.

Didn't have a great game, but he certainly made plenty of contests which is more what I was responding to.

He's not ready yet but he's shown enough for mine.

[Adam The God 30,126]

4 hours ago, ProDee said:

The best bit to take out of the Champion Data stats is that in 2017 he's ranked the 6th best general forward in the competition. 

The other stats are irrelevant, because they're based on a comparison of 23 games and not the players' respective ages.  Ablett and Dangerfield were 19 through 23 games, so you wouldn't expect them to have the same due to a less mature body.  I recognise Petracca missed a year with  knee, but still consider his age a significant advantage.  Gray was the same age as Petracca after 23 games. 

I'm surprised very little has been made of Oliver's stats in comparison to any other midfielder in the modern era. He has better stats than Greg Williams at this point...

[Ted Lasso 19,285]

The biggest question I have around track is does he end up being a better mid or forward? I personally like him being 70% forward with midfield bursts 

[Adam The God 30,126]

8 minutes ago, Abe said:

The biggest question I have around track is does he end up being a better mid or forward? I personally like him being 70% forward with midfield bursts 

Yep, I agree, mate. The Stringer model.

Oliver, Viney, Tyson, Brayshaw and Salem gives us plenty of elite talent to vie for starting mid positions once Jones, Lewis and Vince hang up the boots. Petracca, Hogan and Watts for bursts as well.

[Gator 17,278]

9 minutes ago, A F said:

I'm surprised very little has been made of Oliver's stats in comparison to any other midfielder in the modern era. He has better stats than Greg Williams at this point...

That's not quite correct.  Williams stats were better from his first 19 games.

That said, Williams debuted at 20, so had an advantage with age.

Williams averaged 26 disposals from 12 games in his first year - 1984, and averaged 30.6 in his second year on his way to the B&F in '85 at 21.

If your point is that Oliver's second year may be better than Williams' second year well that is a possibility, but obviously not yet resolved.

I'd also argue that stats in 1985 are worth at least 20% more than the possession game of 2017, so 30 disposals then is at least 35-36 today, imo.

[Willmoy1947 4,081]

18 minutes ago, ProDee said:

That's not quite correct.  Williams stats were better from his first 19 games.

That said, Williams debuted at 20, so had an advantage with age.

Williams averaged 26 disposals from 12 games in his first year - 1984, and averaged 30.6 in his second year on his way to the B&F in '85 at 21.

If your point is that Oliver's second year may be better than Williams' second year well that is a possibility, but obviously not yet resolved.

I'd also argue that stats in 1985 are worth at least 20% more than the possession game of 2017, so 30 disposals then is at least 35-36 today, imo.

That last paragraph ProDee says that i should have been getting much more money back in 1975. I shall take it up with the Club.....

[Adzman 2,154]

7 hours ago, Choke said:

Agreed.

Pretty sure Cale Mortan had some good early stats too.

I think he still holds the AFL record for running away from a fight in an AFL game....

[Biffen 12,940]

Petracca reminds me of Leigh Matthews more than anyone . 

I haven't seen enough of McCartin to make an opinion.

[Deestroy All 14,262]

On 01/05/2017 at 11:15 AM, old dee said:

If you can kick 7 goals in a VFL game you are not a dill.

Now that may not translate to being very good at AFL level but lets wait a year or two before we declare a victory.

 

Jesse Hogan kicked 6 in the VFL when he was too young to buy smokes. 

[FarNorthernD 5,861]

13 minutes ago, Adzman said:

I think he still holds the AFL record for running away from a fight in an AFL game....

Cale had his issues some of which were probably exacerbated by our "development" of players at the time. However his implied cowardice in this comment is just wrong.