Bernie is down but against Hawthorn last time it was his, Tyson's and Jones' hardness at the contest that set up our competitive performance and I expect him to lift this week.  I think the Hawks were genuinely surprised how hard we went.  I'd like to find a spot for BenKen, he smashes in and I think that's going to be important.

Isaac Smith beat us on the outside last time, it would be good to match up defensively against him.

  On 31/07/2016 at 09:06, chook fowler said:

I hate being confused by facts. Very irritating. And why is salary irrelevant. In any other industry big bucks require high performance.

Big bucks require high performance    what industry are you talking about   certainly not the Public Service

Dawes was serviceable yesterday  all the forwards suffered from the stagnant entries, Garlett gets caught up in the packs that form in the 50 as well

In: Grimes, Terlich, Pedersen, Trengove

Out: Garlett, Dawes, Wagner, Harmes.

I'd love to have Oliver in the side, but not until he can play 70% or more. Vince plays defensive midfield, not getting shitty, cheap kicks across half back. Kent very lucky - I'd play him just to run through Mitchell.

The inability of Dawes and Garlett to provide a contest or be accountable for an opponent cost us in round 11, and neither has done anything useful since. Wagner and Harmes are both turnover merchants, plus Wagner needs to learn to stay down and not fly into every pack he comes near.

We can give this game a real shake, but we need to play a million times better than we did yesterday.

  On 01/08/2016 at 01:43, Fifty-5 said:

Bernie is down but against Hawthorn last time it was his, Tyson's and Jones' hardness at the contest that set up our competitive performance and I expect him to lift this week.  I think the Hawks were genuinely surprised how hard we went.  I'd like to find a spot for BenKen, he smashes in and I think that's going to be important.

Isaac Smith beat us on the outside last time, it would be good to match up defensively against him.

Yeah, could be a good one for Bernie to tag someone in the middle.. As for Issac Smith, could be a good learning curve for Jayden Hunt to go to him on the wing.. As for Hawthorns smaller forward line, could we bring in Grimes for OMAC perhaps? Or even Michie? If Garlett is to stay in the side, would like to see him further up the ground, with Ben Ken played deeper.

  On 31/07/2016 at 23:52, stuie said:

Dawes has a batter tank than Pedo, even more so currently given Pedo was out for a few weeks. Neither player is ideal, but that's the choice we have right now.

Thought Dawes was ok but not great yesterday. Took a few grabs, kicked a goal, tackled.

 

Could have had a few more possessions if we could kick it to him instead of at his feet as often as we did.

  On 01/08/2016 at 01:53, Satyriconhome said:

Big bucks require high performance    what industry are you talking about   certainly not the Public Service

Dawes was serviceable yesterday  all the forwards suffered from the stagnant entries, Garlett gets caught up in the packs that form in the 50 as well

I agree the pubic service seems to be an exception. Re Dawes I was really angry at the 50m he gave away and the easy shot on goal missed. When you only get 8 possessions you can't afford those sort of things. Have cooled down a bit now.

  On 31/07/2016 at 09:11, Moonshadow said:

If Hogan doesn't get up we might have a forward line of Dawes and Pedo next week with Watts as third tall. Only one of those names brings me any joy.

Indeed, dont think you could leave Garlett out in that case.

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:19, chook fowler said:

I agree the pubic service seems to be an exception. Re Dawes I was really angry at the 50m he gave away and the easy shot on goal missed. When you only get 8 possessions you can't afford those sort of things. Have cooled down a bit now.

I will admit I am biased about old iron hands Chook However you are correct.

I have mentioned before about my passion for beating Hawthorn and it goes way back to the dim dark days when Lethal used to pull the trigger on his opponent when they started beating him - Steve Smith, Peter Giles and Alan Jarrett.

But we have two important games to go - this one and the last one against Geelong. Win either and our season is a success. Lose both and we have failed to beat a finalist since Rd 1 when GWS was just getting going. 

But having said that we were so poor with our disposal yesterday it will take an amazing turnaround to right the ship against the Hawks. But hopefully the sun on the southern side of the ground played a part - if it didn't you can see Hawthorn having a memorable keepings off game against us.

We also seem to have both Vince and Viney nursing injuries and of course Hoges will need plenty of massaging this week to get up.

I have three players who must play.

Bugg - Was 23rd man and his intensity against Hawthorn is a must. He got something like 16 tackles the week before so he's a gimme. The only question is whether he replaces an injured Vince or Viney or whether we have to omit Garlett because the Hawks are intense and we need tacklers - that's why Jeffy was dropped soon after we played them last time. I'd also play him on PoohPooh because he's the best at shrugging tackles and I just can't see any of our back six coping with him. As I said when we played them last time, I'd also be looking at Nat Jones going on to Puopolo late in the game, once again because our skipper's tackles stick. That will give Bugg a chance to impact late on the ball.

Spencer - Why is it that we think we can go with one ruckman against two genuine rucks - especially against a side like Hawthorn who know how to hammer big men? Watts has been fantastic finding the ball on the deck in the ruck, but the past few weeks he has been so badly beaten in tap outs that it's embarrassing. We want Watts to have the occasional burst on the ball, but he doesn't have to be ruckman to do so and if he gets battered by McEvoy or Ceglar, it just shows the coaching stupidity.  Further to this, Spencer has an amazing record against McEvoy and he is capable of resting forward (remember Geelong) and given that we have lost all our ability to find Hoges and Jeffy over the back - then having a big like Jake or resting Maxy to kick long to is going to be way more effective when we can't spot up a short option anyway. The obvious outs for this are either Hoges (via injury) or Dawes (sorry but while he wasn't our worst yesterday, he's just not winning any aerial contests). Forget Weideman - this is not the game for him. If we are going to try and fast-track the Weed for next year, then the clash with Carlton at the MCG is the one for him. Having Spencer/Gawn, allows Hoges to play more up the ground and he's a damaging outlet mark from defence - unlike Dawesy.

Michie - What was our biggest flaw yesterday. Kicking, especially inboard. Who is the second-most accurate kick at our club behind Watts - Viv. Who has been dominating VFL games - Viv. Forget the game against Coburg, that was like playing the amateurs, it was his games against Footscray and Sandy that showed why he is a must. With a left-footer in Bugg coming into our back seven as well (to play on Puopolo), we need to send Harmes forward this week and can omit our lefty Wags - who has been handy but not spectacular and probably needs a confidence refresher at VFL level before playing the final couple of weeks. If Vince or Viney are too sore, then his omission is not required.

The only other players that should be considered heavily this week are Kennedy and Oliver. BenKen would be more of a direct swap for Jeffy, but I just can't see it happening with Vanders and Kent firing and Hawthorn's defence so full of medium talls - Birchall, Duryea, Burgoyne. Oliver is racking up the numbers but Angus is getting his gig at moment, so I can't see why you would switch it now - unless of course Bernie or Viney are out.

I suspect Rioli will be back for the Hawks but at least they still don't have Shiel.

The good thing is that with Frosty, we now have the flexibility (pace and height) to match up with any of the match-up switches the Hawks try.

Please Roosy, please tag Mitchell. It should be Viney, but if not you have Nat Jones or Bugg. But make it a hard tag. Bernie, if fit, can go to Hodgey, including when he plays back or on the ball. Mitchell is the master at keepings off and Hodge the master at the long outlet and they must be pressured all game and it requires a good tackler to disarm them. 

Out: Garlett, Dawes (or Hogan if injured), Wagner (or Vince if injured).  In: Bugg, Spencer,  Michie.

B: Jetta (Rioli) T.Mac (Gunston) Frost (Mcevoy, Ceglar, Sicily)

HB: Hunt (Breust) O.Mac (O'Brien/Sicily) Bugg (Puopolo)

C:  Stretch (Smith) Viney (Mitchell) M.Jones (Hill)

HF:  Watts (Gibson) Hoges (Frawley) Vince (Hodge)

F:  VB (Birchall) Spencer (Stratton) Kent (Duryea) 

Ru: Gawn (Ceglar) Tyson (Lewis) N.Jones (Burgoyne)

Int: Harmes (forward/mid rotation), Michie (defensive rotation), Brayshaw (mid rotation), Petracca (forward/mid rotation)

(O'Rourke, Whitecross, ruck/Sicily, Brand)

 

 

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:19, chook fowler said:

I agree the pubic service seems to be an exception. Re Dawes I was really angry at the 50m he gave away and the easy shot on goal missed. When you only get 8 possessions you can't afford those sort of things. Have cooled down a bit now.

I noticed he only took a few steps and tried to just slot it.....Watts did exactly the same thing at his last shot at goal and nailed it. Not sure if this is a new type of run up and kick style  they have been practicing...

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:22, Deespicable said:

 

Spencer - Why is it that we think we can go with one ruckman against two genuine rucks - especially against a side like Hawthorn who know how to hammer big men? Watts has been fantastic finding the ball on the deck in the ruck, but the past few weeks he has been so badly beaten in tap outs that it's embarrassing. We want Watts to have the occasional burst on the ball, but he doesn't have to be ruckman to do so and if he gets battered by McEvoy or Ceglar, it just shows the coaching stupidity.  Further to this, Spencer has an amazing record against McEvoy and he is capable of resting forward (remember Geelong) and given that we have lost all our ability to find Hoges and Jeffy over the back - then having a big like Jake or resting Maxy to kick long to is going to be way more effective when we can't spot up a short option anyway. The obvious outs for this are either Hoges (via injury) or Dawes (sorry but while he wasn't our worst yesterday, he's just not winning any aerial contests). Forget Weideman - this is not the game for him. If we are going to try and fast-track the Weed for next year, then the clash with Carlton at the MCG is the one for him. Having Spencer/Gawn, allows Hoges to play more up the ground and he's a damaging outlet mark from defence - unlike Dawesy.

 

 

 

Yes good point, Watts cant play full forward, full back and ruck....

If Hogan doesn't come up, I would think that Pedersen would get the gig. If we are going to blood one of our newer frorwards, it would be Hulet; he has a more AFL ready body and has out-performed Weideman this season.

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:22, Deespicable said:

I have mentioned before about my passion for beating Hawthorn and it goes way back to....

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:22, Deespicable said:

ISpencer - Why is it that we think we can go with one ruckman against two genuine rucks - especially against a side like Hawthorn who know how to hammer big men? Watts has been fantastic finding the ball on the deck in the ruck, but the past few weeks he has been so badly beaten in tap outs that it's embarrassing. We want Watts to have the occasional burst on the ball, but he doesn't have to be ruckman to do so and if he gets battered by McEvoy or Ceglar, it just shows the coaching stupidity.  Further to this, Spencer has an amazing record against McEvoy and he is capable of resting forward (remember Geelong) and given that we have lost all our ability to find Hoges and Jeffy over the back - then having a big like Jake or resting Maxy to kick long to is going to be way more effective when we can't spot up a short option anyway. The obvious outs for this are either Hoges (via injury) or Dawes (sorry but while he wasn't our worst yesterday, he's just not winning any aerial contests). Forget Weideman - this is not the game for him. If we are going to try and fast-track the Weed for next year, then the clash with Carlton at the MCG is the one for him. Having Spencer/Gawn, allows Hoges to play more up the ground and he's a damaging outlet mark from defence - unlike Dawesy.

 

 

Unfortunately Spencer probably had his worst game for the year on Saturday...the way section has been though I wouldn't be surprised to see him selected.

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:33, rjay said:

Unfortunately Spencer probably had his worst game for the year on Saturday...the way section has been though I wouldn't be surprised to see him selected.

That has never stopped the FD picking a player in the past rjay.

  On 01/08/2016 at 01:55, poita said:

In: Grimes, Terlich, Pedersen, Trengove

Out: Garlett, Dawes, Wagner, Harmes.

I'd love to have Oliver in the side, but not until he can play 70% or more. Vince plays defensive midfield, not getting shitty, cheap kicks across half back. Kent very lucky - I'd play him just to run through Mitchell.

The inability of Dawes and Garlett to provide a contest or be accountable for an opponent cost us in round 11, and neither has done anything useful since. Wagner and Harmes are both turnover merchants, plus Wagner needs to learn to stay down and not fly into every pack he comes near.

We can give this game a real shake, but we need to play a million times better than we did yesterday.

an injection of slowness?

not having a go but I wouldnt have any of these changes aside from Pedo.   if harmes injured id bring in Kennedy

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:22, Deespicable said:

Please Roosy, please tag Mitchell. It should be Viney, but if not you have Nat Jones or Bugg. But make it a hard tag. Bernie, if fit, can go to Hodgey, including when he plays back or on the ball. Mitchell is the master at keepings off and Hodge the master at the long outlet and they must be pressured all game and it requires a good tackler to disarm them.

Could not agree more. I would tell Jones to do it. Let viney and tyson lead the charge as a ball winner. jones is too strong for mitchell and plenty fast enough to go with him. That matchup also forces mitchell to be accountable. Bugg could do the job too but he wouldnt force the same accountability.

I wonder if Vanders could play that defencive forward role on Hodge? His pressure is what keeps him in the team all year. I would put vince in the middle and tell him to throw his weight around and do everything he can to support viney and tyson while they work on the inside. Those 2 on the inside and have Tracc/Brayshaw/Kent running off the wing or hbf playing as high half forwards. I like them playing the forward role but starting bounces from the back half.

For his learning and development id like to see Stretch run with Smith all day but for winning i think M. Jones on him could be better. Maybe even bugg on him could be handy to be a real nuisance but he will get killed for pace every time Smith gets out in space.

We're not  going to have a better chance to get them, they are still in cruise heading into the finals. Hit them hard and make sure they earn it for every minute. I wont ever expect a win against this kind of team while we are this young, but I want to see a contest. Rolling over easily will be a real disapointment.

  On 01/08/2016 at 02:22, Deespicable said:

Michie - What was our biggest flaw yesterday. Kicking, especially inboard. Who is the second-most accurate kick at our club behind Watts - Viv. Who has been dominating VFL games - Viv. Forget the game against Coburg, that was like playing the amateurs, it was his games against Footscray and Sandy that showed why he is a must. With a left-footer in Bugg coming into our back seven as well (to play on Puopolo), we need to send Harmes forward this week and can omit our lefty Wags - who has been handy but not spectacular and probably needs a confidence refresher at VFL level before playing the final couple of weeks. If Vince or Viney are too sore, then his omission is not required.

Whilst normally I would agree (and you logic is correct, he is the next best disposal in the club) I have put $50 on him to win the Liston so want him playing in the two's. I also think that if he could not get a game after the Doggies and Sandy game then I doubt he will get a recall this week. He was excellent on the weekend (again) with 30 disposals of the HBF and 2 goals. Did have a couple that went astray but those numbers are excellent given they had probably only 25 I50s for the game. Also he is out of contract at the end of the season and I think he will be moved on. Short sighted but he wasn't one of Roos picks.

 

 

 

Weideman will debut this week

  On 01/08/2016 at 05:08, gwsampso said:

Weideman will debut this week

Thanks Roosy.

  On 01/08/2016 at 00:59, stevethemanjordan said:

Don't tell Sat-man DE is rubbish.

It's the only evidence he has to backup his claims that McKenzie can kick.

I think it's just as easy to dismiss disposal efficiency to suit an argument as it is to promote it. It's really easy, when confronted with a good disposal efficiency of some player you are trying to shoot down, to simply say that "DE% is rubbish".

If an "efficient" disposal includes a disposal to a player who is immediately tackled, or who doesn't win the ball etc. that is true of every player on the list, not just the ones you think are 'clanger makers'. The important part of DE% is comparison, not raw disposals. Generally someone who is 75% is a better disposer thah someone who is 65%.

  On 01/08/2016 at 05:08, gwsampso said:

Weideman will debut this week

I would actually listen to this guy. Has called a couple of things in the past, might have some connections.

 

  On 01/08/2016 at 05:18, mauriesy said:

I think it's just as easy to dismiss disposal efficiency to suit an argument as it is to promote it. It's really easy, when confronted with a good disposal efficiency of some player you are trying to shoot down, to simply say that "DE% is rubbish".

If an "efficient" disposal includes a disposal to a player who is immediately tackled, or who doesn't win the ball etc. that is true of every player on the list, not just the ones you think are 'clanger makers'. The important part of DE% is comparison, not raw disposals. Generally someone who is 75% is a better disposer thah someone who is 65%.

I take little notice of either side of the coin and I prefer to watch with my own eyes as they're all I need to decide whether or not someone has sound technique or is a good decision maker. DE is for the blind and stat lovers.

I was making the point that Saty has literally used that stat in isolation as 'evidence' to support his view of a player like McKenzie being able to kick.

 

 

Big Boy is a crasher not unlike Spencil style wise. Insurance needed for Watts and give Big M a chop out and also allows him to drift forward a little more and stretch the Hawk's D.

Would not risk Watts as resting ruck this week!

Out: Hogan (hasn't fired a shot in 3 weeks....time for a break and a little refresher. Even a week off wouldn't hurt. Might be enforced anyway due to knee)

In: Pedersen for Resting Ruck/Forward role to cover Hoges/Watts/Maxy

Dawes to share the resting ruck duties also.

IF Bernie has an injury and only IF tag Mitchell with a terrier who can also get his own share of the pill and just run with/annoy the crap outta him. Someone who has the tank to do so at AFL level

In: Grimes Out: Vince (if Inj)

Demons will need to play a super slick brand of footy off HB and through midfield with a stack more effective kicks this week to have any chance of remaining in the game for most of the game.. And i mean decent kicking not the usual long high hail mary bombing (Vince, Viney, Tyson et al!) coming into the 50 mostly into the pockets! Kick low raking long kicks to the hot zone if under the pump and you can't score, hit up a free target or kick to someone's fat side a la Hawthorn.

Get Jeffy, Kent Vanders & Tracc to share the front and square at the drop of the packs and tell them to go for it where possible.

Super pressure also needed by our forwards inside 50 if we're to have any chance of staying in the game. The Hawks are the best at this up their end IMO. Another good reason to have Pedersen in for this week vs Hulk. Not sure the Hulk is switched on or has the tank for constant pressure i50 at this point. Tackle count in last three matches is 2 vs other main forwards Jeffy 4, Watts 6 & Dawes 9 (2 games).

  On 31/07/2016 at 06:28, samcantstandya said:

I hate how he takes possession is in the clear and runs in2 a tackle because he is 2 slow 2 kick or handball

I hate how people write "to" as the number "2"... as 4 Matt Jones, I think he's played well enough lately to be 4given 4 the odd glitch.