The Draft

[rjay 24,102]

I've been thinking about this for a while now...

With the tanking of clubs like Collingwood, Hawthorn and West Coast in the past and the current situation we now find ourselves in with EFC and Fremantle I think it's time something was done.

The current situation where the draft order is worked out on ladder positions at the end of the season is inadequate.

I also think the lottery system some have called for really doesn't help the clubs who need the most help...

I propose the draft ladder should be worked out over a 3 years floating period.

In other words at the end of each season the draft ladder positions would be calculated based on results of the previous 3 years.

Why 3 years?

Well my reasoning is that should give an accurate indication of where a club actually sits and will take out the anomalies of a situation where EFC find themselves this season and the possibility of Freo having a bad one and just bouncing back next year ala WC.

Also I very much doubt a club would tank over a 3 year period, the damage to a club would be too great.

Maybe there could be a trigger point built in for a priority pick as well.

I don't like leaving it up to the whim of the AFL...

[Skuit 9,382]

On initial assessment, I believe this idea has merit. Especially compared to other suggested remedies. 

[Dr. Gonzo 22,696]

No. Reverse ladder order is the way it should be and the AFL just need to accept that some clubs will prioritise having a better pick over winning games some seasons. It's just the way it is.

If a team is genuinely rubbish for two years you'll just end up with the same situation in the 3rd year. This isn't basketball where a top pick can transform a team, and picking 18 year old kids is fraught with danger anyway so there really isn't much difference most years between a top 3 pick and a top 10 pick.

[Jara 1,149]

Be nice if they could base it on the last 10 years (or 50) 

[ManDee 7,093]

The bottom 3 sides have a lottery for first pick, 18th has 3 chances 17th 2 16th 1 - a number is drawn - only one is for the first pick. The remaining two teams toss a coin for 2nd pick.  The loser goes to the next draw with 15th & 14th same again. After the last of the bottom five side have selected you revert to normal draft order. You could finish 18th and receive 5th pick. But you are 3 times more likely to get 1st pick than if you finish 16th.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,194]

The current system works.  There was a once in a generation situation with the expansion teams coming in; however we have had ample opportunities to rebuild through the current drafting system... we just kept stuffing up.

[rjay 24,102]

16 minutes ago, TeamPlayedFine39 said:

The current system works.  There was a once in a generation situation with the expansion teams coming in; however we have had ample opportunities to rebuild through the current drafting system... we just kept stuffing up.

This is not about us or expansion teams...the current system doesn't work when a club like EFC can get a free kick and a team like Freo who finished in the top few last year can drop to the bottom and reboot next year.

[TeamPlayedFine39 8,194]

25 minutes ago, rjay said:

This is not about us or expansion teams...the current system doesn't work when a club like EFC can get a free kick and a team like Freo who finished in the top few last year can drop to the bottom and reboot next year.

I do see what you mean, that is suggesting that these two aren't amongst the two worst lists in the league. Fremantle and Essendon's lists have massive issues that one top four pick is not going to alleviate at the end of the year.  They both have some talent missing, but Essendon were very ordinary last year and Freo's slide began halfway through 2015.  No system's perfect, but I think this one's working alright.

[Lucifers Hero 37,424]

rjay, someone read your op!!

Here is an article about a new system the AFL is said to be considering.  http://www.theage.com.au/afl/fremantle-dockers/brad-hardie-what-if-all-the-losses-dont-give-the-dockers-the-no1-draft-pick-20160531-gp7uij.html  Can't see the AFL changing the system for this year (if for no other reason they want Ess in the finals next year and then stay there).

I quite like the system which averages a team's ladder position over 3 years.  Would certainly fix the tanking problem and the Eagles, Pies and now Dockers 'one year bottom out' then bounce back to play in finals the next year.

 

Edited May 31, 2016 by Lucifer's Hero

[Dr. Gonzo 22,696]

1 hour ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

rjay, someone read your op!!

Here is an article about a new system the AFL is said to be considering.  http://www.theage.com.au/afl/fremantle-dockers/brad-hardie-what-if-all-the-losses-dont-give-the-dockers-the-no1-draft-pick-20160531-gp7uij.html  Can't see the AFL changing the system for this year (if for no other reason they want Ess in the finals next year and then stay there).

I quite like the system which averages a team's ladder position over 3 years.  Would certainly fix the tanking problem and the Eagles, Pies and now Dockers 'one year bottom out' then bounce back to play in finals the next year.

 

If you average over 3 years you'll still have a tanking problem - it might even be worse! Take us in 2007-2009. We wouldn't have got the picks we needed in 2007 or 2008 and would have still had incentive to tank in 2009. Whatever system you have where top draft picks are given to the worst performers you'll always have incentive to tank. Look ta the NBA, they have a draft lottery and teams still tank sometimes entire seasons just to have a better chance at a top 3 pick.

Edited May 31, 2016 by Dr. Gonzo

[rjay 24,102]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If you average over 3 years you'll still have a tanking problem - it might even be worse! Take us in 2007-2009. We wouldn't have got the picks we needed in 2007 or 2008 and would have still had incentive to tank in 2009. Whatever system you have where top draft picks are given to the worst performers you'll always have incentive to tank. Look ta the NBA, they have a draft lottery and teams still tank sometimes entire seasons just to have a better chance at a top 3 pick.

...and maybe we would have been better off. Maybe decisions to move on some senior players wouldn't have been made so quickly, maybe the blueprint might have looked different, maybe Bailey wouldn't have had his hands tied etc...

It was too easy to look at one year, then the next and take what we thought was the easy way out, particularly with the priority pick system in place.

Poor picks and development played a big part but the lure of the picks was also part of the leadership mindset and it wasn't healthy.

The clubs that have rorted the system had & have the fundamentals in place to bounce back quickly.

A lot of maybes but I think it would be harder to put in a plan to tank over 3 years rather than one and we've seen how hard it is to get out of long term failure, the lack of leaders still effects us badly.

[TRIGON 4,719]

Yet to be convinced that basketball is a good comparison. 7 on court v 18 on field, 12 on roster v 22. Adding one gun player to a basketball team makes a much bigger difference than it does to an AFL team. Other posters have made this point on demonland before and I think it's a good one to take on board.

[grazman 6,690]

4 minutes ago, TRIGON said:

Yet to be convinced that basketball is a good comparison. 7 on court v 18 on field, 12 on roster v 22. Adding one gun player to a basketball team makes a much bigger difference than it does to an AFL team. Other posters have made this point on demonland before and I think it's a good one to take on board.

Unless the game has changed - most conventional BB games only have 5 on court.

[TRIGON 4,719]

Oops my bad, used to be 9 when I was a boy (back in 1892).

[Chook 14,628]

If equalization is really the point, the system should be calculated based on years since last premiership. If not, then just give pick one to the premiership winning side and be done with it.

[ManDee 7,093]

 

And 1st pick in the draft.

From:- The Age

Edited June 1, 2016 by ManDee

[Dr. Gonzo 22,696]

21 hours ago, Chook said:

If equalization is really the point, the system should be calculated based on years since last premiership. If not, then just give pick one to the premiership winning side and be done with it.

Equalisation is equalisation of opportunity, not outcome. The Saints and Dogs (as an example) had opportunities to win a flag from 2008-2010. Just because they didn't win doesn't mean they should continue stashing top 3 picks.

I know you were being slightly facetious but I think this point gets missed in the equalisation debate.

[beelzebub 22,552]

serious question....does anyone think we will really engage the draft this year...or look to use picks as currency to get a couple of ready mades from somewhere

I sense the latter....just me perhaps

[Constant Mongrel 571]

good question beelzebub.. i reckon the club will definitely attempt to package whatever picks we end up with and a few unwanted players (with some hint of currency) to source the kinda players that we're needing... but you never know. i don't think any of us expected what went on last draft period. i doubt it'll be boring. just hope we at least double our current wins to attract other mature bodies...

[Chook 14,628]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Equalisation is equalisation of opportunity, not outcome. The Saints and Dogs (as an example) had opportunities to win a flag from 2008-2010. Just because they didn't win doesn't mean they should continue stashing top 3 picks.

I know you were being slightly facetious but I think this point gets missed in the equalisation debate.

Then hand out picks based on a random number generator. That will ensure equalisation of opportunity better than any other method.

[beelzebub 22,552]

some of my thinking goes to the notion that Roos espouses , and something I agree on....  The draft  is footy-lotto

 

if you are down and out and  higher picks lob on your doorstep as a result then obviously you probably look to go shopping . I cant remember the last time the Premiers worried too much about finding their "Silver " player come end of season.  I dont think we will fare quire as well as hoped  come this seasons ladder but still not near the sharp ( or blunt ) end of drafting. 

I think many things can be eventually sated in house  but  id like a good rtr  mid and two defenders...again ready to roll.. They wont come from the draft.

 

[biggestred 4,405]

Draft order based on number of wins over 3 years.

No tanking

No handouts for essendon

Would slow down the regeneration a bit of teams who are truly truly rubbish but they will get lower picks down the road anyway. Might encourage trading of picks/players too.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,696]

4 hours ago, Chook said:

Then hand out picks based on a random number generator. That will ensure equalisation of opportunity better than any other method.

Well, no, because teams are starting from different bases. 

[TheoX 1,218]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-06-02/u18s-20-young-guns-to-watch-this-year

Check out the hairline on Powell-Pepper, poor bugger.

[Pennant St Dee 11,647]

WA vs Vic Country

Headed to this game today expecting WA to put in a solid effort against a Vic Country side who I felt would be the stronger side.  Was very surprised the WA WA stood up and pretty much dominated the contest winning the clearances and Goddard dominating in the ruck.  An impressive 10 min burst by Vic Country in the first quarter saw them get back into the hunt and that period from late in the first to halfway through the 2nd quarter was there most impressive period in the game with Josh Battle certainly having many recruiters licking their lips with an eye catching display from limited opportunities

1st Quarter

Goddard used his big frame and size to win the early hitouts with Powell Pepper, Guelfi, Fisher and Baker winning the ball at ground level and dominating play.  Strndica and Waterman working well in tandem to open up space and pull players away from the danger zone leaving each with space to run into.  WA got the first goal of the game before Will Brodie showed fantastic poise  crumbing off a contest to bring VC back into it before WA made the most of their midfield domination to get out to a 4 goal lead and were cruising.  As they headed into time on it became the Josh Battle show with Atley and Jok getting busy and Leek starting to get the better of  English in the centre.  WA rested Powell-Pepper and Baker in their rotations and in the space of 3 mins

22nd min Battle leads early after backing Atley to win a contest on centre wing Atley quickly gets the ball to Fowler who delivers in to Battle who had enough space on his opponent to mark with clean hands down low.  Really sweet set shot off the boot straight over the umpires head

23rd min Meek wins tap Atley goes in long Poholke and Battle go up in the contest and Rotham spoils and surprisingly Battle is the most agile of those inside 50 who is quick on his feet gathers and instinctively snaps truly with his left foot

24th min Another quick inside 50m to the top of the square where Battle gives a strong contest the ball is punched to the pocket and as the WA defender gathers and Battle is first to apply pressure forces congestion and eventually VC gather ball and quick handpass finds Battle who has peeled loose in forward pocket hugging boundary and banana's an opportunists goal from the boundary on a tight angle

Best:

WA - Guelfi, Goddard, Powell-Pepper, Baker, Strndica

Vic Country - Battle, Brodie, Jok & Meek

2nd Quarter:

Great start by Vic Country after gaining momentum late in first quarter and Goddard having a rest and Mcarthy getting the better of English in the taps which saw Atley, Mcluggage and Jok gain the ascendancy in the middle.  Pretty even contest with both sides turning the match into a game between the arcs with some poor delivery inside 50m.Watermans workrate is of note certainly has the appetite to work hard to either lose an opponent, creat space for a team mate or to get to a contest and make an impact  Notes made of particular moments

1st minute Mcarthy wins a tap and not sure but think it was Atley who finds space and delivers inside 50m to the strong leading Battle who shows strong hands to hold off defender and kicks truly from set shot

3min Wright reads a Mcarthy tap perfectly and breaks from the clearance to score an opportunist goal

5min Wright again breaks clear from centre square and delivers to HFF where Waterman has worked hard to lose opponent and turns well for a big player and delivers a beautiful pass to chest of leading Strndica who goals from set shot

6th min Clarvino gathers in congestion in defensive 50 doesn't panic shows poise and calmness before delivering 50m pass to chest of leading HF inside centre square

10th min having not done a lot English shows the potential with really good hands down low and gathers quickly to feed off before being hit high and earning a free kick

18 min Baker sharks another Mcarthy tap quick 1-2 handball with Fisher before delivering into 50 where strong contest see ball drop around 30m out and Powell Pepper quickest to react with crumbing snap for a goal

20 min Jok clean hands in congestion gut runs to receive and deliver quality pass into path of leading forward giving Rotham no chance of spoiling

Best 

WA - Fisher, Baker, Wright, Waterman

Vic Country - Mcarthy, Mcluggage, Jok, Cavarino

  

3rd Quarter:

Vic country started well and battled hard to stay in the contest when WA on occasion looked like getting away as they continued to dominate from the centre.  Goddard, Powell Pepper and Wright were the engine room giving WA first use of the ball and it was only when Meek went up against English that Vic Country got the better of the clearances with Mcluggage and Atley working hard.  Battle started the quarter like a quality leading forward and Clavarino showed some calmness and anticipation down back repel many WA attacks.  Some points of note through the quarter

4min: Vic Country locked into their defensive 50 for sustained period and eventually get the ball clear only for Rotham to take a strong contest mark and deliver a quality pass back into Waterman who misses 

6th min Vic Country manage to get the ball up to centre wing after sustained pressure and in resulting contest Bolton shows great acceleration and evasion to escape from congestion before putting ball to hot spot at top of square which leads to WA goal 

7th minute WA hemmed into defence attempting to escape and defender delivers and overshot pass to HB which looks like being intercepted by Blair of VC Powell-Pepper reads danger accelerates to take contested mark and bounds off as he lands to deliver pinpoint pass to Clark Powell-Pepper continues to gut run looking for handball receive but poor delivery of HB by Clark leads to turnover 

11min Poholke VC strong contest inside forward 50 gathers and stands up in tackle to snap goal

12 min Rotham again intercepts with great anticipation and reading of the play, delivers at pace inside 50m but easy mark dropped by Young

14min Powell-Pepper leads strong to HFF takes strong contested mark and immediately kicks to top of square from 60m

15min Levein good body on body with bigger VC player possibly Blair holds him off and toe pokes the ball into space on the wing for WA to get another inside 50m, ball is intercepted and VC break with numbers and ball ends up in 2 on 1 with VC forward chipping over top for what should be an easy mark and set shot, but Levein has left his man and gut run to give a contest and force ball out of play

20min, long ball inside 50m ends up top of VC square Poholke again shows strength to gather in heavy congestion holding off two tacklers to get ball to boot and goal

21min Clarvino backing in bravely taking strong defensive mark

23 min Powell-Pepper presents to HFF carries and invites pressure of two players before feeding HB to free teammate Fisher who delivers indie 50 which leads to goal from Clark

25 min Goddard wins tap long ball inside 50 from Fisher or Baker not sure but ends up with Powell-Pepper keeping feet from contest gathering and goaling from 30m on tight angle hugging boundary

25 min Goddard again to Fisher ball goes long again Powell-Pepper gathers quick hands to Wright who has continued run from centre bounce gathers and kicks on teh siren

Best

WA - Powell-Pepper, Goddard, Wright, Rotham

Vic Country -  Poholke, Meek, Clavarino, Mcluggage

4th Quarter:

WA put the icing on the cake with a dominant display in the final quarter, English started to work well in the ruck and showed some real poise and good skill set.  A lot of laconic Watts about the way he goes about things.  Vic Country fell away dramatically in the last 10 mins for the game to blow out.

1st bounce of the quarter, Wright reads Meeks ruck tap and delivers to Powell Pepper who gathers on the run and goals at pace, make him down top 10 pick has skill, aggression and just a smart footballer.

2min Fisher gets a strong clearance and kicks to HF where Baker takes a strong contested mark for a smaller player, delivers a perfect pass to the chest of Strndica who goals

Guelfi sling tackles Atley at next clearance and is reported, Atley shaken for a few minutes but continues to go hard at it

5min, Baker takes and intercept mark as VC attempt to clear from defensive 50 and goals - game over

7min quick hands between Wright and Powell-Pepper sees Powell-Pepper get away and deliver inside 50 where Clavarino backing in takes a strong mark in front of Young

English starts to show his athleticism with sting gone out of the game and Wright, Narkle and Fisher starting to dominate all centre clearances 

13 min Claravino again takes strong contested mark

17 min Baker again takes strong mark smallest in group at HFF but judges ball better and delivers a quality pass which makes Bolton run to the right area to mark but he misses

Put the book away for the last 10 mins and just watch the game play out

Powell-Pepper - no chance for us unless we trade up really quality player who I first say play 6 years ago and have kept an eye on him ever since, will go Top 10

Baker - size is the only worry for me not a big lad and took a massive hit late from Kirby but showed courage all day to put his head over the ball, good ball user and marks well for a player of this size

Waterman - will be picked up by Meth Coast as F/S has the appetite to play at the next level and works hard for team mates

Rotham - smart defender who reads the play well, will go late because he sin't big will make a handy 3rd defender

Goddard - dominant ruckman today but I wonder is he a man child who will be found out at higher level, will be picked up not sure how far he can go'

Atley - hard at it and uses the ball well, never shirks a contest and has a good workrate

Battle - limited opportunity an opportunist with plenty of tools in the bag is another 1st rounder

Wright - like Baker undersize but pure class and works really hard to provide options, has some nice pace to get away from the contest and find space, Won teh Colts B & F in the WAFL last season

Clavarino - good size defender who reads the play well and is one of those defenders who doesn't look flashy but just shows class. Brave and smart will be drafted

Mcgluggage - worked hard all day and despite being beaten by numbers in terms of opponents rotating through the middle the recruiters will have liked what they saw    

Korehwa - wasn't in the game a lot but this kid was brave and hard as they come attacked and impacted plenty of contests and if he didn't win the ball his opponent didn't either.  Needs to get rid of the Tom Alvin haircut but some potential in what I saw today

Berry - highly rated but had a bad day IMO disposal was not great looked rushed at times and kicked into the man on the mark on 2 occasions 

Mcarthy - showed a lot for a young ruckman nice hands in the tapwork and smarter AFL conditioned players would benefit from his ruckwork

Both Brodie and Fowler had flashes during the game and whilst being in th elosing side and up against it showed glimpses which I am sure recruiters will have noticed.  Good ball users