Everyone's taking about Picks 3 and 7 but really ... these selections are fairly routine. You don't need to be a genius to determine who they are likely to be - there are only about half a dozen prospects who are rightful fits for these selections and the ones chosen will be good chances to be A grade footballers (and I say that notwithstanding some of the howlers made by previous recruiters at the club over the past decade or so).

The real test however, will be what happens with picks 46 and 50 which we welcomed to the club this week along with 3 and 7. These lower selections in what is described as a "shallow draft pool" will really test the mettle of our recruiting people if they are in fact utilised in an open drafting system - it's here where the really tough decisions have to be made.

The first set of tough decisions comes with the final assessment of a couple of players yet to be contracted. What to do with Viv Michie and Jayden Hunt who are said to be uncontracted with less than a week to go before the end of season deadline on 30 October. There's also the possibility that the club might delist a player and pay out his contract as sometimes happens (last year Michael Evans was paid out with a year left on his contract) and then there's also the delisted free agency period to come.

The end result might leave us with additional draft picks to fill and again, there is the decision to make with rookie James Harmes as to whether he is to be elevated to the primary list. That's one that shouldn't be too difficult given his late season form.

Assuming we finish up with those two selections of 46 and 50 on draft day, they still won't be or feel like the picks of the past at that level because some of the picks in advance of these selections will vanish in the bidding process for academy players and father/son selections. It's been estimated that this might remove around 10 selections from ahead of our third pick making it more in the nature of a normal late second round selection around the mid 30s.

And given that last year Melbourne took Alex Neal-Bullen with pick 40 and Billy Stretch at 42 under the father/son rule, picks 46 and 50 this year are not to be sneezed at.

These picks will end up being the 35th and 39th 'live' picks with earlier picks being burnt through by the Northern clubs 'paying' for their Academy kids.

Personally I would like to see both Matt Jones and Terlich paid out (notwithstanding the fact that ironically they were amongst our best players only a few short years ago), plus Hunt delisted. I am happy to persevere with Michie for another year as he seemed to be hitting his straps at the tail end of the season and he provides better depth than the other three. With the extra spaces we could be astute in the PSD as well as the draft proper by taking a risk out of left field (a la Vanders)!

On the matter of rookie promotions, I just had a look at the key dates thread and saw this for next Friday -

Friday 30 October 2pm - List Lodgement (1) ; Rookie Promotion to Primary List; Retained 2nd & 3rd Year Rookies; International Scholarship Player; Alternate Talent Player Nominations; Club Notification of Rookie Players Not Accepting a Contract of Offer; Nomination of Draft Eligible Father/Son Players Lodged; TPP Pre-Season Estimates (1).

That's the first time I noticed it but it suggests that unlike in the past few seasons, when rookie elevations were part of the national draft, this suggests that they have to be done by the end of next week.

On the matter of rookie promotions, I just had a look at the key dates thread and saw this for next Friday -

That's the first time I noticed it but it suggests that unlike in the past few seasons, when rookie elevations were part of the national draft, this suggests that they have to be done by the end of next week.

Which in turn means that our picks 46* & 50* (or indeed our later picks) won't be used on rookie elevations. Apparently it changed last year. Rookie elevations 2014

We still could pass on any of those picks but picks 46 & 50 may well secure the club a couple of spec picks who may turn out alright.

*Pick numbers 46 & 50 will almost certainly change because of the academy players being bid on. Effectively both picks will end up in the early 40's/mid 40's or better.

Looking at a recent AFL website article the name Tom Doedee popped out. Took a closer look, noticed he's skinny, got injured and is a teammate of Parish's. In days of yore he'd be a lock.

Everyone's taking about Picks 3 and 7 but really ... these selections are fairly routine. You don't need to be a genius to determine who they are likely to be - there are only about half a dozen prospects who are rightful fits for these selections and the ones chosen will be good chances to be A grade footballers (and I say that notwithstanding some of the howlers made by previous recruiters at the club over the past decade or so).

Cale Morton and Jimmy Toumpas beg to differ ...

I like Tommy Glen.

Decent size, good runner, doesn't waste a disposal.

Should be available with a rookie pick even.

I'm a fan of Josh Schoenfeld as an elite running outside player. Shame he went and smashed all the records at the draft camp. He's value might rise now.

Cale Morton and Jimmy Toumpas beg to differ ...

You shouldn't confuse the selections with their outcomes. At best there are in my view, about three possibilities for serious consideration at #3 and not that many more when you get to #7. A recruiter's mettle is determined by who they select with the lower picks.

Of course you can fail with your selections but at the time Morton was picked, he was universally considered as a potential gun footballer. I recently saw vision of Nat Fyfe in his first game and there was a physical resemblance. Fyfe's body matured, his game developed and he turned into a champion. Morton did not. I was one of those who was thrilled that we got Toumpas and that was based not on his highlights reel but on seeing him play for SA Under 18's. I don't think he ever recovered from the two lots of hip surgery he had after those championships. On the other hand, Chris Judd had dodgy shoulders and Joel Sellwood had a bad knee. It didn't stop them.

The fact is that no one can definitely predict the outcome of any particular draft selection at the time it's made.

I reckon Matt Jones is okay.

Not sure why posters keep wanting the club to pay out his contract.

For a start, this should be an absolute last resort act, which should not be lightly entertained. It creates all sorts of list management issues, not to even touch upon the impact it can have upon a list culturally.

Terlich has to go irrespective of contract.

Matt Jones gave us nothing last year.

I would give hunt one year but rookie him and see what he can give us with an injury free preseason.

Harmes is a given to be promoted to senior list.

Michie has shown he is a good VFL player, but the penny hasn't quite dropped at AFL level.

I like Tommy Glen.

Decent size, good runner, doesn't waste a disposal.

Should be available with a rookie pick even.

I agree, I like Glen, he is such a beautiful kick.

Terlich has to go irrespective of contract.

Matt Jones gave us nothing last year.

I would give hunt one year but rookie him and see what he can give us with an injury free preseason.

Harmes is a given to be promoted to senior list.

Michie has shown he is a good VFL player, but the penny hasn't quite dropped at AFL level.

I disagree with all of the above bar one.

Mat Jones contributed last year, indeed wasn't he was a crucial element in of our wins IIRC (though i can't remember which one) with a shut down job on a key hb playmaker? If so he was factor in one of our 6 wins. He provided run and carry, did his job and covered the loss of injured players. That adds up to more than nothing. Not sure of his contract status but if he is contracted i can't see how you could rookie him. Pay him out then pay him a rookie sapary? He'd probably take that.

Michie was among our best in the last 3 games, partic against Carlton. He makes good decisions, is quick and a good, penetrating kick. The penny has dropped.

Terlich stays and is good depth. No harm in keeping him given we are unlikely to pick up a delisted player. Besides we should honour contracts if we expect our players to.

Yep, promote Harms.

I disagree with all of the above bar one.

Mat Jones contributed last year, indeed wasn't he was a crucial element in of our wins IIRC (though i can't remember which one) with a shut down job on a key hb playmaker? If so he was factor in one of our 6 wins. He provided run and carry, did his job and covered the loss of injured players. That adds up to more than nothing. Not sure of his contract status but if he is contracted i can't see how you could rookie him. Pay him out then pay him a rookie sapary? He'd probably take that.

Michie was among our best in the last 3 games, partic against Carlton. He makes good decisions, is quick and a good, penetrating kick. The penny has dropped.

Terlich stays and is good depth. No harm in keeping him given we are unlikely to pick up a delisted player. Besides we should honour contracts if we expect our players to.

Yep, promote Harms.

He stopped Bob Murphy in the first (successful) Bulldogs game.

I'm not a great fan of M Jones and Terlich but I'm even less of a fan of breaking contracts and transferring main list players to rookie lists. If we want players to come to our club, they need to be confident we'll treat them as adults and not chattels.

And like rpfc (I think), I'm in favour of getting rid of the rookie list and expanding the main list by the same number of places, anyway.

46 and 50 (well 39 and 42?)

There are a few names I like here: Greg Clark, Nick O'Kearney, Sam Skinner, Nash Holmes and Hisham Kerbatieh.

Clark had a shocking year compared to his 2014. I dont know if it was the Bont comparisons, being captain in a weak WA side, or just wasnt ready for top age, he went from being a top 10 bolter to a mid 50's pick. He has the talent and the leadership. At pick 39-46 it is low risk high reward.

O'Kearney is so unlucky. He is an absolute possession jet but being in a weak Metro side exposed his disposal. Again, he looked like a first round pick and has now seen him slide right down to the bottom of the second round. I'd like to think he doesn't get to us, but if he is there he is another ANB ready to take.

Skinner - Promising KPP who really didnt play this year due to injury. These ones tend to see their way to the Rookie draft but in a weak draft he might find himself taken on talent and character alone. Worth the late pick if we dont get a tall in the first 7.

Homes - big love for this guy. The grunt of the VC team and I loved his work with Parish, Tucker and Matheson. If he played for Metro I think there would be more love on draft boards and he would have had more of the ball and more time in the centre square. Good for a depth midfielder.

Kerbatieh - remember before we were obsessed with Daniel Rioli we loved this guy. He is still around and had a good, solid season. Needs work but he is a game changer and could be a 10 year small forward. low risk high reward.

All in all if I had a choice of 2 I'd want Clark and O'Kearney, but in terms of needs (and most likely to be there) I'd say Skinner and Kerbatieh.

Gregory Clark (WA – MID)
Height: 193cm, Weight: 82kg, DOB: 24/05/1997
Recruited from: Subiaco Profile: Promising tall running midfielder.

Nicholas O’Kearney (VIC – MID)
Height: 180cm, Weight: 71kg, DOB: 13/02/1997
Recruited from: Calder Cannons Profile: High production midfielder.

Sam Skinner (VIC – KPP)
Height: 197cm, Weight: 96kg, DOB: 29/06/1997
Recruited from: Gippsland Power Profile: Promising key position player who missed much of this season hurt.

Nash Holmes - VC (180.0 cm, 74.0 kg - Inside Midfielder)

Hisham Kerbatieh (VIC – FWD)
Height: 177cm, Weight: 77kg, DOB: 16/05/1997
Recruited from: Calder Cannons Profile: Talented small forward with a long kick.

Mat Jones contributed last year, indeed wasn't he was a crucial element in of our wins IIRC (though i can't remember which one) with a shut down job on a key hb playmaker? If so he was factor in one of our 6 wins. He provided run and carry, did his job and covered the loss of injured players. That adds up to more than nothing. Not sure of his contract status but if he is contracted i can't see how you could rookie him. Pay him out then pay him a rookie sapary? He'd probably take that.

As LaDeevina already pointed out, Jones did the shutdown role on Bob Murphy in our win.

He also did a very succesful shutdown on an in-form Corey Enright down at the Cattery in that win.

If he's given a role, he can play it well. If he plays as just another midfield rotation, he doesnt have enough skill

to be effective enough to justify his spot, I'd rather see ANB or similar take it.

He's a keeper for mine.

As LaDeevina already pointed out, Jones did the shutdown role on Bob Murphy in our win.

He also did a very succesful shutdown on an in-form Corey Enright down at the Cattery in that win.

If he's given a role, he can play it well. If he plays as just another midfield rotation, he doesnt have enough skill

to be effective enough to justify his spot, I'd rather see ANB or similar take it.

He's a keeper for mine.

So he played an important role in a third of our wins. Not bad. Be nice to have him available to cover Murphy again next season.

I reckon Matt Jones is okay.

Not sure why posters keep wanting the club to pay out his contract.

For a start, this should be an absolute last resort act, which should not be lightly entertained. It creates all sorts of list management issues, not to even touch upon the impact it can have upon a list culturally.

Matt Jones might be OK if he didn't turn the ball over AND give away pointless dumb free kicks in our defensive 50m zone. Never seen a bloke who can career into a bloke's back with such regularity.

Dump, for mine.

From the 'Bidding War' thread..:

TL;DR version - we will get the 3rd, 7th, and ~31st ~36th picks in the draft (excluding the FS and Academy players).

For Pick 46 i'd love it if Thomas Cole was still available. Also like the look of Brayden Fiorini and James Pasons. All of them good running players off half back/wing with Cole & Parsons probably developing an ability to play more onball.

Pick 50 I'd love to see us take a punt on Gach Nyuon the athletic raw Sudanese ruckman as i'm not sure he'd get through to our rookie Pick 6. Failing Nuyon, Kerbatieh sounds like he could be a handy addition.

As for list spots, for me it needs to be either Hunt delisted or Terlich paid out to allow Harmes promotion. As long as Harmes does get his promition i'll accept whichever of the two the club picks.

Edited October 27, 20159 yr by AngryAtCasey

For Pick 46 i'd love it if Thomas Cole was still available. Also like the look of Brayden Fiorini and James Pasons. All of them good running players off half back/wing with Cole & Parsons probably developing an ability to play more onball.

Pick 50 I'd love to see us take a punt on Gach Nyuon the athletic raw Sudanese ruckman as i'm not sure he'd get through to our rookie Pick 6. Failing Nuyon, Kerbatieh sounds like he could be a handy addition.

As for list spots, for me it needs to be either Hunt delisted or Terlich paid out to allow Harmes promotion. As long as Harmes does get his promition i'll accept whichever of the two the club picks.

I am predicting Pick 46 to be ND44 with 11 Academy/FS taken before it - making it the 33rd live pick.

Pick 50 will remain ND50 but 13 Academy/FS taken before it - making it the 37th live pick.

So does that change who you think will be available?

I am predicting Pick 46 to be ND44 with 11 Academy/FS taken before it - making it the 33rd live pick.

Pick 50 will remain ND50 but 13 Academy/FS taken before it - making it the 37th live pick.

So does that change who you think will be available?

I should have clarified and instead of saying Pick 46 & 50, said our 3rd & 4th Pick. So no, they're still the players i expect to be available to us.

absolute punt at 40 ish.

Agree Greg Clark from WA would be a good call.

Kurt Mutimer and David Cunningham would be others worth the last spot.

Edited October 29, 20159 yr by spirit of norm smith

absolute punt at 40 ish.

Agree Greg Clark from WA would be a good call.

Kurt Mutimer and David Cunningham would be others worth the last spot.

I really like the look of Mutimer, but have it on good authority that he's a bit of a fl0g!