The Bidding War

[rpfc 27,590]

Ok, now that the craziest Trade Week ever is consigned it is time to look at the points system and how it will work.

I would like to run through the scenarios of where players will go and what will happen to those picks that get eaten up by a bid from a rival club.

Sydney, GWS, BL, and GC all have Academy players that will fall in various spots - could those that know more than I give me an idea of an approximate spot in the draft that they will go and we can work from there?

Sydney has 33, 36, 37, 44, 54, 69, and 72 that are worth points.

GWS has 10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65, and 70

BL have 2, 38, 39, 40, 41, and 42

GC have 6, 16, 29, and 56.

Two things to consider;

1. There is a maximum 'deficit' that a club can take into next year (1728 - this fluctuates with in-traded future picks). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-12/afl-closes-draft-bidding-system-loophole

2. That deficit will be paid starting in the Round that the bid came from that caused the deficit (if a Rd 3 bid put Syd into deficit, their Rd 3 and onward picks next year will take the burden, not their 1st rounder). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-08-08/league-adds-safety-net-to-draft-future-picks

So who are these kids and where are they rated, and let's find out what that will mean for the draft.

[beelzebub 22,268]

How does this affect us... Im not as over all of this points and goals as your good self RPFC.

Does it................ affect us ?

[rpfc 27,590]

How does this affect us... Im not as over all of this points and goals as your good self RPFC.

Does it................ affect us ?

Ok, so I am unsure of the ins and outs and I have tweeted Patrick KEane about whether or not Sydney's matching of Mills by using 33, 36, and 37 as an example, will turn the Lions 38 into 35 with the equivalent points.

I really hope they thought about this...

As for the Dees - let's say that these teams burn through 9 of the 13 picks before our 3rd pick at 46.

That would turn our pick 46 into pick 37 in a proverbial instant.

I am just eager to know where these picks will end up but I am also interested more broadly too in what it will look like.

[daisycutter 28,637]

Ok, so I am unsure of the ins and outs and I have tweeted Patrick KEane about whether or not Sydney's matching of Mills by using 33, 36, and 37 as an example, will turn the Lions 38 into 35 with the equivalent points.

I really hope they thought about this...

As for the Dees - let's say that these teams burn through 9 of the 13 picks before our 3rd pick at 46.

That would turn our pick 46 into pick 37 in a proverbial instant.

I am just eager to know where these picks will end up but I am also interested more broadly too in what it will look like.

good stuff, rpfc

keep the tutorial going

[Its Time for Another 4,054]

How does this affect us... Im not as over all of this points and goals as your good self RPFC.

Does it................ affect us ?

Nope except all picks given up for Academy or FS players go out of the draft so everyone after them moves up the order. The draft order on the night will be a moving feast because these teams won't know how many picks they need to give up until they know who has bid for them and how high. So for instance if we bid for Callum Mills, Sydney will have to give up most of their picks and everyone else will move up. If no one decides to bother bidding for him because they realise it is a waste of time then they may have to use a lot less picks and so everyone including us won't get moved up as much. That applies to all teams with these type of players. It won't effect our picks 3 & 7 as no teams before either pick is likely to have to give up one of those picks. Brisbane have a couple of Academy players but should be able to have enough points for them without giving up pick 2. But GWS will almost certainly have to give up pick 10 and a lot of their other picks. This will all be further complicated because these players will be given an "imaginary" pick straight after the pick of the team that bid for them. So for instance if Carlton bid for Callum Mills, the AFL say pick 2 in the draft is Sydney taking Callum Mills. In reality no player will go at pick 2, so Brisbane's pick 2 will become pick 3 but it is actually the same as pick 2 was before this. So they'll get the same player.

Really simple.

[Thrice 216]

This will all be further complicated because these players will be given an "imaginary" pick straight after the pick of the team that bid for them. So for instance if Carlton bid for Callum Mills, the AFL say pick 2 in the draft is Sydney taking Callum Mills. In reality no player will go at pick 2, so Brisbane's pick 2 will become pick 3 but it is actually the same as pick 2 was before this. So they'll get the same player.

Really simple.

The way I understand it is that if Sydney exercise their rights they will actually get pick two, but to achieve they will need to exhaust the points value of their next pick(s) by moving them to the end of the draft until they have accumulated enough points to 'pay' for pick 2. Everyone else behind them will actually move one place further down the order -as you've said so Brisbane's pick 2 will become pick 3 and our pick 3 will become pick 4 etc.

* The final pick is only discounted to the point that they have accumulated enough points. So it might only drop a few places down the order.

Edited October 22, 2015 by Thrice

[rpfc 27,590]

If the following kids go in these spots; Hopper (GWS) at 4, Mills (SYD) 5, Kennedy (GWS) 11, Hipwood (BL) 15 and Keays (BL) 18 (pulled from a phantom on Big Footy) then the draft will look like this:

Hopper burns through 10 and moves 34 to 42 for GWS.

Mills burns through 33, 36, and 37 moves to 61 for Syd.

Kennedy burns through 42, 43, and 53 moves to 72 for GWS.

Hipwood burns through 38 and moves 39 to 72 for BL.

Keays burns through 40 and moves 41 to 64.

This needs to be cleaned up when I know how it functions in a bit more clarity but essentially, our pick at 46 is now 35 and 50 is 39.

So people feel better with 3, 7, 35, and 39?

[rpfc 27,590]

They will be 40 and 44 but with 5 players taken before that that we had little chance to acquire.

[What 18,810]

What happens if Carlton bid on Callum Mills with pick 1? Would Sydney even have enough points from this draft or would they have to use picks from next year as well?

I find the idea that Carlton possibly have the power to set Sydney back so far both hilarious and awesome

Edited October 22, 2015 by Petraccattack

[H_T 2,941]

Thanks for explaining this rpfc. It's been a little confusing.

[Seraph 1,714]

What happens if Carlton bid on Callum Mills with pick 1? Would Sydney even have enough points from this draft or would they have to use picks from next year as well?

I find the idea that Carlton possibly have the power to set Sydney back so far both hilarious and awesome

They've already traded out a 2016 4th rounder, so can they use another one?

[beelzebub 22,268]

thanks for answers guys..interesting...A whole new element to this has been born

[Nasher 33,133]

Thanks for doing all the legwork rpfc. Like many (I suspect) I wanted to understand how this worked, but couldn't be bothered figuring it out myself.

[beelzebub 22,268]

Thanks for explaining this rpfc. It's been a little confusing.

there

[TRIGON 4,719]

Nope except all picks given up for Academy or FS players go out of the draft so everyone after them moves up the order. The draft order on the night will be a moving feast because these teams won't know how many picks they need to give up until they know who has bid for them and how high. So for instance if we bid for Callum Mills, Sydney will have to give up most of their picks and everyone else will move up. If no one decides to bother bidding for him because they realise it is a waste of time then they may have to use a lot less picks and so everyone including us won't get moved up as much. That applies to all teams with these type of players. It won't effect our picks 3 & 7 as no teams before either pick is likely to have to give up one of those picks. Brisbane have a couple of Academy players but should be able to have enough points for them without giving up pick 2. But GWS will almost certainly have to give up pick 10 and a lot of their other picks. This will all be further complicated because these players will be given an "imaginary" pick straight after the pick of the team that bid for them. So for instance if Carlton bid for Callum Mills, the AFL say pick 2 in the draft is Sydney taking Callum Mills. In reality no player will go at pick 2, so Brisbane's pick 2 will become pick 3 but it is actually the same as pick 2 was before this. So they'll get the same player.

Really simple.

Edited October 22, 2015 by TRIGON

[Redleg 37,907]

One of the most interesting hairstyles in music over the years.

[rpfc 27,590]

What happens if Carlton bid on Callum Mills with pick 1? Would Sydney even have enough points from this draft or would they have to use picks from next year as well?

I find the idea that Carlton possibly have the power to set Sydney back so far both hilarious and awesome

If Carlton nominate Mills, Sydney will burn through all of their picks and will have picks ~76-82 to fill their list.

They will take a deficit of 52 into nest season's first rounder which won't dent picks 1-12 but will push 13-18 down a place. I am not certain what happens if they trade away their first rounder, it may simply affect 'their next pick' or the aFL might say it will affect their next '1st rounder' whenever they take one to the draft.

The maximum deficit a club can take into next year is 1728 so if Dunkley is a FS and is nominated by a club with picks 2-6 (Pick 1 being Sydney now with Mills) - Sydney WILL NOT be able to meet that bid and that club will take Dunkley.

[Its Time for Another 4,054]

If the following kids go in these spots; Hopper (GWS) at 4, Mills (SYD) 5, Kennedy (GWS) 11, Hipwood (BL) 15 and Keays (BL) 18 (pulled from a phantom on Big Footy) then the draft will look like this:

Hopper burns through 10 and moves 34 to 42 for GWS.

Mills burns through 33, 36, and 37 moves to 61 for Syd.

Kennedy burns through 42, 43, and 53 moves to 72 for GWS.

Hipwood burns through 38 and moves 39 to 72 for BL.

Keays burns through 40 and moves 41 to 64.

This needs to be cleaned up when I know how it functions in a bit more clarity but essentially, our pick at 46 is now 35 and 50 is 39.

So people feel better with 3, 7, 35, and 39?

Good luck working that out live on the night. They will obviously have a live draft board up for all to see as it constantly changes.

The bidding psychology is an interesting one. Basically bidding teams in the top 10 know the Academy player teams will put up whatever they have to, to get the players, so they are really only bidding to force those teams to give up picks not to get the players. If as some have asked Carlton put up pick 1 for Mills, the question is would that be enough to make Sydney let them have him. Then they are screwed for getting the key position they so desperately need. I wonder where Mills would fit in the order if he was in the draft. I would have thought a better system than this bidding would be for an expert panel to make a call on what pick they would go in the draft and then everyone has some certainty. There usually seems to be broad agreement on ranking the top 10 to 20 by talent anyway. Different opinions on where they will go in the draft tends to be about opinions on what teams will pick to fit their needs rather than pure talent. Whereas this should be chosen on talent. It would take it away from teams doing bogus bids and give a true value to the players. The team can either chose to pay that or let them go in the draft. They should still get the 20% discount so they can take that into account making their decision.

Edited October 22, 2015 by It's Time

[Dr. Gonzo 22,539]

If the following kids go in these spots; Hopper (GWS) at 4, Mills (SYD) 5, Kennedy (GWS) 11, Hipwood (BL) 15 and Keays (BL) 18 (pulled from a phantom on Big Footy) then the draft will look like this:

Hopper burns through 10 and moves 34 to 42 for GWS.

Mills burns through 33, 36, and 37 moves to 61 for Syd.

Kennedy burns through 42, 43, and 53 moves to 72 for GWS.

Hipwood burns through 38 and moves 39 to 72 for BL.

Keays burns through 40 and moves 41 to 64.

This needs to be cleaned up when I know how it functions in a bit more clarity but essentially, our pick at 46 is now 35 and 50 is 39.

So people feel better with 3, 7, 35, and 39?

Do you know whether the bidding points have to be taken from the clubs first pick on? Or can they tally up all their picks at the back end of the draft and use the points that way?

EG Essendon bid on Hopper at 4 = 2034 points

GWS need to find 1627.2 points

GWS has 10 (1395), 34 (542), 43 (378), 53 (233), 55 (207), 58 (170), 63 (112), 64 (101), 65 (90), and 70 (39) = 3267 points

Can they use picks 34, 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65 & 70, keep pick 10 and be given pick 49 (downgraded from 34)?

I know they need to take 3 picks to the draft but you get the idea, the example may work better for their second academy player (Hopper) if there is a later bid on him (in the teens say).

[H_T 2,941]

On the night, I believe each club will be in separate rooms away from the camera's. Is that correct?

Clubs will have to be on the ball as it's their turn for selection.

[Dr. Gonzo 22,539]

If Carlton nominate Mills, Sydney will burn through all of their picks and will have picks ~76-82 to fill their list.

They will take a deficit of 52 into nest season's first rounder which won't dent picks 1-12 but will push 13-18 down a place. I am not certain what happens if they trade away their first rounder, it may simply affect 'their next pick' or the aFL might say it will affect their next '1st rounder' whenever they take one to the draft.

The maximum deficit a club can take into next year is 1728 so if Dunkley is a FS and is nominated by a club with picks 2-6 (Pick 1 being Sydney now with Mills) - Sydney WILL NOT be able to meet that bid and that club will take Dunkley.

If they take a deficit of 52 next year that won't affect their first pick will it? I thought it would only affect a later pick worth a commensurate value - or does it depend which round the academy player is taken in this year?

[Dr. Gonzo 22,539]

Do you know whether the bidding points have to be taken from the clubs first pick on? Or can they tally up all their picks at the back end of the draft and use the points that way?

EG Essendon bid on Hopper at 4 = 2034 points

GWS need to find 1627.2 points

GWS has 10 (1395), 34 (542), 43 (378), 53 (233), 55 (207), 58 (170), 63 (112), 64 (101), 65 (90), and 70 (39) = 3267 points

Can they use picks 34, 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65 & 70, keep pick 10 and be given pick 49 (downgraded from 34)?

I know they need to take 3 picks to the draft but you get the idea, the example may work better for their second academy player (Hopper) if there is a later bid on him (in the teens say).

Say Richmond bids on Hopper at 12 = 1268 points

GWS need to find 1014.4 points

Can they use 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 64 & 70 = 1330 points, keep picks 10 & 34 and be given back pick 48 (points difference for pick 43)?

EDIT: Don't worry, in this document it says the next pick must be used;

In order to pay for the player, the Nominating Club’s next available pick move backwards in the draft order to the value of the points required.

• If the points required are greater than the value of the next available pick, the remaining points are subtracted from the Nominating Club’s next selection and so on, until all points are paid.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Father-son-bidding-system.pdf

Edited October 22, 2015 by Dr. Gonzo

[rpfc 27,590]

Do you know whether the bidding points have to be taken from the clubs first pick on? Or can they tally up all their picks at the back end of the draft and use the points that way?

EG Essendon bid on Hopper at 4 = 2034 points

GWS need to find 1627.2 points

GWS has 10 (1395), 34 (542), 43 (378), 53 (233), 55 (207), 58 (170), 63 (112), 64 (101), 65 (90), and 70 (39) = 3267 points

Can they use picks 34, 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65 & 70, keep pick 10 and be given pick 49 (downgraded from 34)?

I know they need to take 3 picks to the draft but you get the idea, the example may work better for their second academy player (Hopper) if there is a later bid on him (in the teens say).

It will affect the next pick - there is no skipping of a pick.

[rpfc 27,590]

If they take a deficit of 52 next year that won't affect their first pick will it? I thought it would only affect a later pick worth a commensurate value - or does it depend which round the academy player is taken in this year?

The deficit will go against the pick in the round that caused the deficit - so if a club nominate Dunkley with a 2nd round pick and that causes them to take hium and go into deficit - their 2nd round pick and onwards will be affected - not their 1st round pick.

[ManDee 7,091]

Do you know whether the bidding points have to be taken from the clubs first pick on? Or can they tally up all their picks at the back end of the draft and use the points that way?

EG Essendon bid on Hopper at 4 = 2034 points

GWS need to find 1627.2 points

GWS has 10 (1395), 34 (542), 43 (378), 53 (233), 55 (207), 58 (170), 63 (112), 64 (101), 65 (90), and 70 (39) = 3267 points

Can they use picks 34, 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65 & 70, keep pick 10 and be given pick 49 (downgraded from 34)?

I know they need to take 3 picks to the draft but you get the idea, the example may work better for their second academy player (Hopper) if there is a later bid on him (in the teens say).

Edit : Removed scanners exploding head on request.

Edited October 23, 2015 by ManDee