Melbourne's Compensation Picks

[pantaloons 2,019]

I've been thinking recently about the players Melbourne has lost to free agency and the impact that this has had on the team, now and into the future. If this is all a bit TLDR for you than skip past the Geelong and Hawthorn bits, but I thought they make for interesting comparisons.

In recent years, Geelong and Hawthorn have risen to powerhouse status with three flags apiece since 2007. There are a range of reasons for their success, but two different factors played significant roles in their rise. Geelong had the benefit of some extraordinary father-son selections at the draft table. Between 1997 and 2006 in the decade leading up to their drought-breaking flag, the Cats took the following players under the father-son rule:

1997: Marc Woolnough #29

1997: Matthew Scarlett #45

1998: David Clarke #21

2001: Gary Ablett Jr #40

2002: Tim Callan #36

2003: Mark Blake #38

2004: Nathan Ablett #48

2006: Tom Hawkins #41

While the list isn't quite as impressive as I remembered, to be able to take the likes of Ablett, Scarlett and Hawkins with third round picks was immense for them, and once they had started winning flags, the rule changed.

In the years leading up to 2008 while they were trying to assemble a premiership list, Hawthorn nailed some early picks, used some good old-fashioned tanking (or list management as I prefer it to be called), but importantly traded away players with currency for high draft picks. After a series of heists, the league gradually woke up to the danger of trading away your best picks for players who aren't worth the price, and we don't see many of these trades anymore. See below:

1999: Traded Jonathon Robran to Essendon for #33 (Tim Clarke) and #48 (2008 premiership player Chance Bateman)

2001: Traded Trent Croad and Luke McPharlin to Fremantle for #1 (Luke Hodge), #20 (Daniel Elstone) and #36 (Sam Mitchell)

2002: Traded Daniel Chick to West Coast for #8 (Luke Brennan)

2004: Traded Nathan Thompson to North Melbourne for picks #10 and #26 (Matthew Little), then flipped #10 and Bo Nixon to Collingwood for #7 (Jordan Lewis)

2005: Traded Nathan Lonie to Port Adelaide for #14 (Grant Birchall)

2005: Traded Jonathan Hay to North Melbourne for #18 (Max Bailey)

They didn't nail all of those picks (and others which don't fit in the above like the drafting of Mitch Thorp and Beau Dowler), which is somewhat comforting to know that you can still win flags while making some errors in drafting.

Since the end of 2011, with Melbourne being a less than desirable club of choice for players with freedom to choose, and perhaps a willingness of Melbourne to let some players go in order to receive compensation, we've seen melbourne lose several players who had either been key players for the club at one point or were going to be. Here's a look at what we've lost and what we gained in return via compensation:

2011-12: Melbourne loses Tom Scully to GWS under expansion poaching. Melbourne receives a future first round pick after our own pick (2012 pick 3) and a future mid-first round pick (2012 pick 14). In 2012, Melbourne traded both these picks to GWS for Mini-draft pick 2 (Jesse Hogan), Dom Barry and pick 20. Melbourne then traded picks 20 and 47 for Chris Dawes and pick 61. Essentially, Melbourne traded Tom Scully for Jesse Hogan and Chris Dawes.

2012: Melbourne loses Jared Rivers to Geelong and Brent Moloney to Brisbane, receiving pick 48 in return (Dean Kent).

2013: Melbourne loses Colin Sylvia to Fremantle and receives pick 23. Melbourne trades pick 23 to Adelaide for Bernie Vince.

2014: Melbourne loses James Frawley to Hawthorn and receives pick 3 (Angus Brayshaw).

So over the course of four offseasons, Melbourne lost Tom Scully, Jared Rivers, Brent Moloney (now retired), Colin Sylvia (now retired) and James Frawley. In return we've netted Jesse Hogan, Chris Dawes, Dean Kent, Bernie Vince and Angus Brayshaw. I'm not going to suggest that this automatically means we're going to start a raging dynasty like the Hawks or Cats, but I feel that as rules change and new systems are implemented, you have to adapt quickly and try to gain an edge by adapting fastest. I think Melbourne has made some outstanding moves out of potentially damaging situations, and decisions that will no doubt be scrutinised and held up as genius ideas if we win a flag in the next 5 to 8 years. It goes without saying that of course you have to do other things well, whether that's drafting the right kids, developing them, trading well and getting everything right off-field.

Whether other clubs will be able to copy Melbourne in this regard remains to be seen. Free agency is still in its infancy in the AFL, and in the next few years we may see it scrapped altogether, or watered down to something akin to the NFL where compensatory picks are awarded in the third to seventh round the season following a club's losses. The AFL shouldn't be hasty in abolishing or watering down compensation picks in my view. Many of us here have discussed the potential for an even more uneven competition if this occurs, with players bolting from weaker clubs to join the more successful. It will make for interesting observation anyhow.

All in all, hats off to Melbourne here. We've played this incredibly well.

[jnrmac 18,980]

Well written. Good analysis.

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,418]

Another thing the Hawks were able to do really well is get fantastic value from late draft picks:

Isaac Smith: pick 19

Luke Breust: pick 77

Brad Hill: pick 33

Taylor Dureya: pick 69

Paul Puopolo: pick 66

Liam Shiels: pick 34

I think we are starting to show signs of doing this with:

VandenBerg

Kent

McDonald

Kennedy-Harris

All were late draft picks and having been playing really well.

Edited April 30, 2015 by Is Dom Is Good

[Sir Why You Little 34,511]

Free Agency is fine as long as we can recruit young talent and mature seasoned talent.

So far we have nailed it.

The exact opposite to what Schwab and co targetted

But the club must fund recruiting as hard as it can.

For the next 2-3 years we cannot afford to waste a pick. We must pick the forward trends of the game and recruit what is needed to be a top 4 side.

[Moonshadow 16,211]

Interesting comparison Pantaloons. Good to see that all clubs make some serious drafting errors, not just us.

[pantaloons 2,019]

Well written. Good analysis.

Cheers. I'll be offline shortly for most of the rest of the day, so if anyone has any raging abuse or would like to pick it apart, that'd be the best time!

Another thing the Hawks were able to do really well is get fantastic value from late draft picks:

For the next 2-3 years we cannot afford to waste a pick. We must pick the forward trends of the game and recruit what is needed to be a top 4 side.

I think if you look at the last two or three drafts, we've done well. While (and please let's not derail this) the Toumpas pick hasn't come to fruition yet, getting Viney as a father-son at 26 was a steal, same for Kent at 48. Then nailing the Salem pick following a brilliant trade, picking JKH at 40 when Hawthorn went Garlett at 38. While we've only got Brayshaw as a guide and it's early days, the 2014 draft crop should be very good.

[Moonshadow 16,211]

And let's hope the Stretch F/S pick is a winner as well. Interesting to see how the Jake Lovett F/S plays out in the draft order.

[Sir Why You Little 34,511]

I think if you look at the last two or three drafts, we've done well. While (and please let's not derail this) the Toumpas pick hasn't come to fruition yet, getting Viney as a father-son at 26 was a steal, same for Kent at 48. Then nailing the Salem pick following a brilliant trade, picking JKH at 40 when Hawthorn went Garlett at 38. While we've only got Brayshaw as a guide and it's early days, the 2014 draft crop should be very good.

I agree 100% So far we have recruited beautifully, but we have to keep up that strike rate for 2-3 seasons yet

We have no credits!!!

[Bang Bang Bang 5,461]

I might be wrong but I think techically we got pick 4 (Toumpas) from the Scully departure.

[highroller 112]

throw in the trade for pick 2 to GWS for Tyson and Salem as well and its looking even better. Salem is looking like one of the better players of that draft and Dom is a previous top 5 pick as well.

[Sir Why You Little 34,511]

Damien Barrett

Clown School...

[jackaub 1,402]

And remember Pantaloons we finshed above Geelong in 2006

The trajectories of the 2 clubs diverged spectacularly due in the most part to major differnces in Board and management qualities of the 2 clubs

We wasted 7 long years and it almost sunk the club

[Forest Demon 4,681]

I didn't read the Hawthorn and Geelong parts, but interesting to see how well we did out of it. Even when Moloney and Rivers left and we got terrible compo of pick 48, we have made that work with some shrewd recruiting, and then likewise with the rather generous compo for Scully and Frawley. I guess it all boils down to how we use the compo.

[Sir Why You Little 34,511]

And remember Pantaloons we finshed above Geelong in 2006

The trajectories of the 2 clubs diverged spectacularly due in the most part to major differnces in Board and management qualities of the 2 clubs

We wasted 7 long years and it almost sunk the club

The Red & Blueprint.

I often wonder whether a copy still exists or if they all went to the shredder....

[DistrACTION Jackson 6,418]

They should be kept as a reminder of what not to do!

[Deeoldfart 7,733]

The Red & Blueprint.

I often wonder whether a copy still exists or if they all went to the shredder....

Gathering dust in the bottom drawer of Schwaby's old desk, maybe?

[Sir Why You Little 34,511]

They should be kept as a reminder of what not to do!

absolutely. "This is living proof of total failure....We must never never ever go near this again..."

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

absolutely. "This is living proof of total failure....We must never never ever go near this again..."

Time to stop bringing it up all the time then.

[La Dee-vina Comedia 16,435]

Damien Barrett

Clown School...

Is it true he was expelled for failing the basics?

[daisycutter 28,562]

absolutely. "This is living proof of total failure....We must never never ever go near this again..."

hey wyl, have you ever been a script writer for a soapie?

[Sir Why You Little 34,511]

hey wyl, have you ever been a script writer for a soapie?

not yet.

Good money if it makes it to air!!

[daisycutter 28,562]

not yet.

Good money if it makes it to air!!

well you'll get tons of material right here wyl......start that script

[Whispering_Jack 27,992]

In relation to the dealing over the Scully compensation, I think that included in all of the machinations was the fact that we managed to get Jack Viney as a second round draft pick rather than a first round pick which was helpful in the overall scheme of things and it will look even better if Jimmy T makes it in the end.

[Bitter but optimistic 21,260]

In relation to the dealing over the Scully compensation, I think that included in all of the machinations was the fact that we managed to get Jack Viney as a second round draft pick rather than a first round pick which was helpful in the overall scheme of things and it will look even better if Jimmy T makes it in the end.

Good point Jack. Viney was a bargain at pick 24(?) and I believe the Toump will become a player.

[radar 1,851]

Great Analysis.

Hawks weren't hurt by drafting Buddy, Roughead and Cyril.

Cats also got Selwood, Bartel and co. Moved the earth for Ottens.

Both clubs both lost "best player in the AFL" - Buddy/Ablett and still won flags.

How would Hawks be with Josh Kennedy? Oops.