Talking point: The first half of the season to come

[Whispering_Jack 29,259]

At a kid's birthday party yesterday I was bailed up by a fellow Demon fan who was waxing lyrical about our prospects for 2015. I don't think he knows about Demonland or my connection with it but since he wasn't stopping to take a breath I didn't get the opportunity to tell him I already knew a bit about Lumumba, Petracca etc. so I just let him go until we were both exhausted and he still went on with another topic that was even less interesting and took up even more time.

Anyway, his point was that he's keenly looking forward to a season of major improvement, possibly a finals appearance and he says "we'll know by the middle of the year."

God bless him for his optimism (much better than the naysayer types who tend to the polar opposite view and think we won't improve at all and complain about everything) but he did get me thinking about how far we could go if things went our way this year for a change and when would we know that we've definitely turned the corner?

There are many who say that the course of an AFL season is often determined by the half way mark and that, after that point, there are very few changes to the make up of the finals. Last year, Richmond challenged that by storming home with nine wins in a row to fall into eighth place with 12 wins, a game ahead of West Coast, Adelaide and Collingwood. The Tigers only had three wins at the mid point of the season but they had a good run home and gained in confidence and momentum as their winning run continued.

Leaving the Richmond scenario at a side, it's usually that case that for a team to really be in contention at the halfway mark, it realistically needs to have five wins on the board at the very least. Looking at our fixture for the first half of the season, that could be a tough ask but if we can get a good start and win the first two, then who knows? Port Adelaide surprised everyone two years ago when it flew out of the blocks early.

What's your view as to where the Demons are going to be placed at around about 7.00pm at the end of our Round 11 game v St. Kilda at Etihad?

[Ethan Tremblay 30,133]

Well this is awkward.... I spoke to a demons fan at a kids birthday yesterday, I thought he was interested in what I was saying...

Moving on, I think the first 4 games are winnable, depending on which Richmond shows up. Could look at another win or 2 in rounds 8 and 11. 6 from 11 wins, could be slightly optimistic but sounds good to me.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,756]

I'd have to go back over the fixture but from memory we have a decent run in the first half and a bit more difficult coming home.

If everything goes right I see no reason we can't play finals. In key time watching (since 87/88) when we do turn things we tend to turn dramatically and have big rises within a season making a Prelim (as in 87, 94, 98 & 2000). Things may be a bit slower this time as we try and build something more sustainable and the current nature of the comp however I see no reason we couldn't finish in the 7-12 range if Hogan comes on as we hope, our midfield continues to improve and Frost/McDonald/Garland can hold up the back line.

Of course the opposite of this is if a a few things go wrong we could be looking at another spoon.

[Whispering_Jack 29,259]

Well this is awkward.... I spoke to a demons fan at a kids birthday yesterday, I thought he was interested in what I was saying...

It was you? You should have worked out I wasn't interested when I fell asleep ...

[stuie 7,374]

All I know is if one more Dees fan tries to compare us to Port I'm gonna tp their house...

Edited January 17, 2015 by stuie

[P-man 13,366]

Thread title change is in order.

Talking point: WJ finds ET boring

[CBDees 3,165]

I am with Dr Gonzo, quietly confident that we will be in the eight mid year (and stay there this time)! I have been wrong in my predictions in the past though, so I don't want fellow Demonlanders racing down to SportsBet to invest their life savings based on my faith in Roos and our restructured team.

[Moonshadow 17,558]

I think we will be the new Port!

[The Reverend 1,736]

I'm struggling to see where we're actually likely to lose a game in those first eleven rounds. The only possibilities are Hawthorn and Sydney, but even those are winnable given the way we've been training. We have been training the house down haven't we? I'm sure we have have - and by the end of round eleven we'll be taking odds on an undefeated season!

[Whispering_Jack 29,259]

I've just listened to an SEN Podcast of a discussion earlier in the week on the prospects of three teams Geelong, Hawthorn and Melbourne. Cam Mooney felt we can improve and thinks we should be happy to finish in the 7 to 10 game range.

I think for the most part, critics still assess clubs on their immediate past performances which is natural and on that basis, even 7 to 10 wins would be a bonus year for us.

However, I just have this Tiriel Mora-like vibe that this year there is a clear difference in the mood at the club. Paul Roos has had the opportunity to assess the players first hand for a season, half of the list has been changed in 18 months and the entire outfit is going about things with great professionalism.

Call it the vibe but I have a feeling that we're going to lift around about the time we play the Doggies in Round 8 and by the time we play the Saints in Round 11, we'll be flying.

[Goodvibes 3,596]

These discussions tend to focus very much on us and the progress we've made over the past 12 months and the additions to the team over the off season. We don't spend much time analyzing the opposition. Outside of Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and Port I think we can beat anyone. All other teams have serious flaws and lack either star quality or depth. There's been other years when I can list 8 - 10 teams who seem really well-rounded and have claims to top 4 status. Not this year. I think we can double our wins and then maybe then some. I think we'll win more in the first half of the year than the second because I think Viney, Tyson, Kent, Hogan and Gawn will play significant roles and at their respective ages I expect them to tire.

[Hulett Packard III 166]

These discussions tend to focus very much on us and the progress we've made over the past 12 months and the additions to the team over the off season. We don't spend much time analyzing the opposition. Outside of Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and Port I think we can beat anyone. All other teams have serious flaws and lack either star quality or depth. There's been other years when I can list 8 - 10 teams who seem really well-rounded and have claims to top 4 status. Not this year. I think we can double our wins and then maybe then some. I think we'll win more in the first half of the year than the second because I think Viney, Tyson, Kent, Hogan and Gawn will play significant roles and at their respective ages I expect them to tire.

Strange that you include Port as one of the teams you think we can't beat given we have them a decent fright both times we met last year. If we improve 5% and they stay the same, we could beat them when we play them in Alice Springs.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,756]

These discussions tend to focus very much on us and the progress we've made over the past 12 months and the additions to the team over the off season. We don't spend much time analyzing the opposition. Outside of Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo and Port I think we can beat anyone. All other teams have serious flaws and lack either star quality or depth. There's been other years when I can list 8 - 10 teams who seem really well-rounded and have claims to top 4 status. Not this year. I think we can double our wins and then maybe then some. I think we'll win more in the first half of the year than the second because I think Viney, Tyson, Kent, Hogan and Gawn will play significant roles and at their respective ages I expect them to tire.

I agree and even Port we were in both games last year up to our necks, probably should have won the second game in Adelaide.

I can't see us beating Hawthorn or Geelong (considering we play them at Cat Park) probably not gonna beat Freo but they could slide this year and Sydney I doubt we'll stay with for 4 quarters but anyone else there's no reason we shouldn't go into the game at least thinking we're a shot. Things can change of course but at this stage I'm pretty positive about the upcoming season but we can't afford any injuries to key players as our depth is still terrible.

[Goodvibes 3,596]

Strange that you include Port as one of the teams you think we can't beat given we have them a decent fright both times we met last year. If we improve 5% and they stay the same, we could beat them when we play them in Alice Springs.

That's a fair call on Port. I just see them getting better. Their very good players are still quite young and that's why they had a couple of flat spots during 2014. I think we might have got them during a flat spot or two.

I think the exciting thing is that outside of Hawthorn, I give us a chance against every other Victorian team.

[Bombay Airconditioning 6,217]

Well this is awkward.... I spoke to a demons fan at a kids birthday yesterday, I thought he was interested in what I was saying...

Moving on, I think the first 4 games are winnable, depending on which Richmond shows up. Could look at another win or 2 in rounds 8 and 11. 6 from 11 wins, could be slightly optimistic but sounds good to me.

Refardless of which Richmond turns up how about we start turning up every week. This team is out of excuses.

[Barney Rubble 1,576]

I'm a cliche person, one game at a time.

Let's start with a Round 1 win. That's novel.

Build from there.

[Uncle Fester 2,843]

I've just listened to an SEN Podcast of a discussion earlier in the week on the prospects of three teams Geelong, Hawthorn and Melbourne. Cam Mooney felt we can improve and thinks we should be happy to finish in the 7 to 10 game range.

I think that is reasonable, however I think we'll see us fight out most games and turn it on in others. I think we have some good depth (finally), some very good players filling the right spots, a team that wants to do what needs to be done to be a good team, and a coach and staff that can help them do that. But not this year. This year will be about learning to stay with the best and beating the lesser teams; learning when to run forward off a man, and when to run back. A 2010 year without the insane highs and the suicidal lows. 7 -10 this year will be fine as long as I see the fundamentals adhered to, because I'll know that 2016 will yeld teen wins once we can do that.

[Moonshadow 17,558]

I'm going to be the devil's advocate here. It might sound simplistic to say, but if we are improving, so too must nearly all other teams. The standard of the competition gets better and better each year (whether you like the way the game is heading is another matter). I find it impossible to think that other, higher resourced clubs are not also improving at the same or better rate than we are. Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to read reports the club is now run professionally and training standards are on the rise. I just find it a tad early to make realistic predictions because I think that there are about 12 clubs which should be improving as well, and they all finished higher than us last year. Sorry to rain on anyone's parade.

[CBDees 3,165]

That's a fair call on Port. I just see them getting better. Their very good players are still quite young and that's why they had a couple of flat spots during 2014. I think we might have got them during a flat spot or two.

I think the exciting thing is that outside of Hawthorn, I give us a chance against every other Victorian team.

Interesting your pessimism in relation to Hawthorn. IMO by virtue of their addition of Frawley as a free agent into their backline, they have not improved it to the extent that we have with Frost, O. McDonald and HL ( joining T. McDonald, Dunn, Jetta, Garland and Grimes, etc )! History will prove that losing our AA backman, was the genesis for our creation of one of the strongest backlines in the AFL. Don't worry, Hawthorn's backline will generate no fear in Hogan and Co, as similarly our backline will give their forwards very few opportunities.

[tappysquads 618]

I would believe we are on the up if we could give someone a pantsing..... Can't remember our last 50+ point win. Haven't looked capable of it for quite a while.

[Wunders 396]

Here's the link guys who want to listen to that podcast:

https://soundcloud.com/sen1116/cam-mooney-on-cats-hawks-and-dees

[Dr. Gonzo 23,756]

I'm going to be the devil's advocate here. It might sound simplistic to say, but if we are improving, so too must nearly all other teams. The standard of the competition gets better and better each year (whether you like the way the game is heading is another matter). I find it impossible to think that other, higher resourced clubs are not also improving at the same or better rate than we are. Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to read reports the club is now run professionally and training standards are on the rise. I just find it a tad early to make realistic predictions because I think that there are about 12 clubs which should be improving as well, and they all finished higher than us last year. Sorry to rain on anyone's parade.

I disagree teams go up and down. I think Collingwood will go backwards next year as will Carlton, Essendon is anyone's guess but wouldn't surprise to see them falter especially if they cop suspensions. Geelong aren't as fearsome as they were and will struggle to maintain top 2 spot on the ladder, West Coast are hit and miss as are Adelaide and North could easily go backwards of their kids don't come on while their older players head towards retirement (Harvey, Petrol, Wells etc). I think there is scope to improve while other teams decline.

On the flip side I think the Lions will improve, GC and GWS should as well, Hawthorn will still be up and Sydney and Freo will remain hard to beat. The Saints and Dogs could go either way but I don't see much improvement from either of them this year maybe in 2016.

[Dr. Gonzo 23,756]

Interesting your pessimism in relation to Hawthorn. IMO by virtue of their addition of Frawley as a free agent into their backline, they have not improved it to the extent that we have with Frost, O. McDonald and HL ( joining T. McDonald, Dunn, Jetta, Garland and Grimes, etc )! History will prove that losing our AA backman, was the genesis for our creation of one of the strongest backlines in the AFL. Don't worry, Hawthorn's backline will generate no fear in Hogan and Co, as similarly our backline will give their forwards very few opportunities.

Wont matter if we can't win the ball in the middle.

[old dee 23,506]

I'm going to be the devil's advocate here. It might sound simplistic to say, but if we are improving, so too must nearly all other teams. The standard of the competition gets better and better each year (whether you like the way the game is heading is another matter). I find it impossible to think that other, higher resourced clubs are not also improving at the same or better rate than we are. Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled to read reports the club is now run professionally and training standards are on the rise. I just find it a tad early to make realistic predictions because I think that there are about 12 clubs which should be improving as well, and they all finished higher than us last year. Sorry to rain on anyone's parade.

You are not raining on my parade.

I think you have a balanced view in the above.

[The Reverend 1,736]

You are not raining on my parade.

I think you have a balanced view in the above.

Hey OD, I've checked with a well placed contact of mine and he spake thus, "No rain on the horizon in 2015. The forecast is for sunny skies and a gentle breeze that will lift and carry the MFC into the stratosphere of finals football.