The 2014 AFL National Draft

[Machsy 2,856]

She did. Obviously injuries played a part then.

If he still hasn't yet made it back, then maybe that's why.

[What 18,810]

Is Angus Brayshaw any relation that that annoying Kangaroos president?

[whatwhat say what 18,918]

nephew. son of fridge.

[Machsy 2,856]

And ironically, a Freo supporter.

[Whispering_Jack 27,965]

Highlights - Round 4 NAB U18 Championships

[Dwight Schrute 16,751]

Petracca looks more impressive every time he plays, hopefully the saints, tigers and Lions want key position players we grab him

if we lose Chip and land Brayshaw and Petracca i reckon it would be a fantastic result

edit, i'd prefer to keep chip

Edited June 24, 2014 by Mike Nolan

[Demon Disciple 10,932]

Petracca looks more impressive every time he plays, hopefully the saints, tigers and Lions want key position players we grab him

if we lose Chip and land Brayshaw and Petracca i reckon it would be a fantastic result

We do this and we leave ourselves without a quality KPD (dangerous game to play).

If we were to go down that path, then i'd take one of Petracca/Brayshaw and try and bring in another young afl experienced mid with some pace and skill (like a Shiel or Coniglio).

But i'd prefer to try and bring in both a tall and a small with whatever picks we end up having.

[Earl Hood 5,789]

I watched Plough Wallace do some analysis on the TAC show on Ch 9 on Sunday. He looked at the success rate of the top 10 draft picks from 10 drafts between 2001 and 2010. He rated the picks as pass, fail, question mark? Of the 10 number 1 picks everyone passed except Kreuser, Watts and Scully of whom he said the jury is still out. Probably a fair call at this stage. I gathered his pass mark is that the player is a good consistent AFL player, not necessarily the best player from that draft. Thus Delidio is a pass at number 1 although he was not the best player in that 2004 draft.

Needless to say his analysis showed that 2001, 2004 and 2006 were great drafts. As we know 2003 was the worst! There is luck involved in all this draft business.

But interestingly to me, he then categorised the 100 top draftees into inside mids, outside mid/flankers, rucks and key position players. The success rate he reported was a whooping 85% for genuine top 10 inside mids. For rucks it drops to 30%, for key position players I think it was 34% and for outsiders again it was 30 or 34% I think.

I can't vouch for the rigour behind Plough's analysis but it rings true to me. A top 10 inside mid is likely to have certain attributes in addition to underage talent, that is a strong body, aggression and leadership skills as they have probably captained sides in under age. No guarantee of success but the odds are in your favour.

Outside mids, flankers at top 10 will be very talented athletically but of lighter build and maybe not suited to intense physical pressure perhaps, on average. If you ignore them you run the risk of missing some of the elite indigenous players like Cyril Rioli and others. But it depends where your list is at the time of each draft. I believe the Hawks could afford the risks involved in choosing Rioli but at that stage MFC could not, even if we thought he was a potential star. Our need wasn't for a small forward,but if we had known, oh well!

And many have argued here that you don't burn early picks on ruckman and even key position players as there is equivalent talent later in the draft from those who mature later and some young boy-men have dominated underage just because of their size and stall when they get to seniors etc.

So to sum up, if we play the odds we should be chasing an inside mid for our first pick and I wonder where we would be if we had been playing those odds since the 2007 draft?

[spirit of norm smith 12,902]

Petrecca is the gun choice for me.

[Machsy 2,856]

If Chip leaves and we don't trade, I'm confident we'll end up with a combination of 2 of Petracca/Brayshaw/Durdin/Pickett which is an amazing return from the one draft.

Big fan of Durdin.

[ChaserJ 3,964]

Herald Sun's draft primer:-

Jon Anderson profiles the Under 18s class of 2014, predicts top 20 draft picks

[dazzledavey36 48,731]

Im loving the sound of Christian Peccera of whatever his name is.

Big solid midfielder typer that Roosy loves and from Beverly Hills aswell. Same club as Roosy.

[dee-luded 2,958]

We do this and we leave ourselves without a quality KPD (dangerous game to play).

If we were to go down that path, then i'd take one of Petracca/Brayshaw and try and bring in another young afl experienced mid with some pace and skill (like a Shiel or Coniglio).

But i'd prefer to try and bring in both a tall and a small with whatever picks we end up having.

I agree. If we had say P-5 & [6 compo]... then use P-5 on a semi ripe Mid, a bit like this kid > http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pp-greater-western-sydney-giants--dylan-shiel

And trade P-6 & maybe a Tapscott/Blease, on a key tall who plays both ends well, & has height, 195+, & agility, a bit like this kid > http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-greater-western-sydney-giants--kristian-jaksch,

# My trade fantasy would be to sign Chip Frawley, & then on-trade (Frawley & P-23), to the Gold Coast Suns on a 5Yr deal,,, for the GCSuns P-10 & P-12 .

... I'd look to trade P-6 & P-10 to GWS for a couple of players wanting to come home, hopefully (DShiel & CJaksch + GWS's end of 1st Rnd compo pick).

Under these circumstances, we would be well off ourselves, heading into our future.

[DeeSpencer 23,125]

Highlights - Round 4 NAB U18 Championships

Sensation game from Ed Langdon on the highlights tape. Presumably brother or cousin of Tom at the Pies. Kicks 4 and sets another one up. Some smart attacking run and play. Would be useful as a small forward if this games any guide.

[ChaserJ 3,964]

Emma Quayle's 25 to watch in the final rounds of the Champs:

The next generation of AFL players set to strut their stuff

[whatwhat say what 18,918]

She's in love with Pickett, but I'm just not seeing anything.

He doesn't look THAT quick or THAT skilful.

[manny100 1,010]

Saw the draft analysis by Wallace as well. 85% success rate for inside mids makes sense. The top 10 go to the lower clubs where it helps if you can get your own ball. The early insiders can win there own ball plus dispose ok. That is why Roos is desperate to build the midfield with class inside mids who can get the ball to outsiders and KPP's. No doubt if he was there we would have picked Wines. No knock on Toump its just that the Team needed insiders way more than outsiders at that time. I expect Brayshaw or Petracca to be drafted at year end (if available at our pick).

[Machsy 2,856]

She's in love with Pickett, but I'm just not seeing anything.

He doesn't look THAT quick or THAT skilful.

I've seen some highlights where he is THAT quick. Blistering.

Beyond that, I'm not sold.

[Dwight Schrute 16,751]

She's in love with Pickett, but I'm just not seeing anything.

He doesn't look THAT quick or THAT skilful.

I tend to agree, decent X factor but I don't see a top 10 pick personally, i'd rather see us pick up one of the strong bodied mids, or two if Chip decides t move on

[spirit of norm smith 12,902]

post numbet 14 on this thread ... Christian Petracca will be a star. If available, MFC MUST GRAB HIM.

[Whispering_Jack 27,965]

Last week's TAC Cup Future Stars Rolling Draft:-

1. St. Kilda Patrick McCartin (Tall Fwd) Falcons

2. Brisbane Peter Wright (Tall Fwd) Cannons

3. GWS Giants Christian Petracca (Med Fwd) Ranges

4. Richmond Jarrod Pickett (Mid/Sml Fwd) Sth Freo

5. Melbourne Angus Brayshaw (Midfielder) Dragons

6. Western Bulldogs Sam Durdin (Tall Fwd) West Adel

7. Carlton Tom Lamb (Tall Fwd) Stingrays

8. West Coast Clem Smith (Sml Def) Perth

9. Adelaide Jake Lever (Tall Fwd) Calder

10. Gold Coast Caleb Marchbank (Tall Def) B'rangers

Draft order based on positions at start of Round 14

#TACFSrollingdraft

[ChaserJ 3,964]

Not sure whether the coverage diminished his work, but Pickett was involved in most of the positive work that WA were able to muster. Very much in the Lewis Jetta mode, and there was a buzz of excitement whenever he grabbed the ball and took off. Garlett showed a bit if dash as well.

Petracca was very influential I thought. Particularly loved when a nippy WA player overestimated his own ability and tried to take on Petracca on the mark. Petracca crunched him in the tackle and from memory just rag dolled the WA player who picked up the loose ball afterward. He'll more than likely be good to go once drafted.

I'd be very surprised if Richmond left Durdin on the table. They are screaming for talls at both ends.

Clem Smith might be dropping a bit down the charts, he's had a disappointing tournament so far. Undisciplined with both his physicality and his kicking. Was hoping he'd really elevate himself, but has gone the other way.

[jayceebee31 666]

Yes, well we're all aware of your opinions...

How's Serhat Temel tracking?

Coniglio is a gun.

Serhal is going fine...possibly doing better than you....all be it..you have a great memory..What about the other two I suggested ..one on the Footscray list...the other on the Sydney list....2 out of 3 is not to bad....

Remember those two as well?

[Machsy 2,856]

Matthew Panos?

World beater, that one.

Or Lin Jong?

Yep, setting the world on fire, that kid.

Which one at Sydney? Membrey?

Classic tweener.

Only has inflated rating due to not playing.

If he was getting out on the park you'd see he's not that good.

It's not hard to figure out who might scrape onto an AFL list.

But saying Coniglio is not up to it just makes you look a fool.

[Scipio 5,868]

Matthew Panos?

World beater, that one.

Or Lin Jong?

Yep, setting the world on fire, that kid.

Which one at Sydney? Membrey?

Classic tweener.

Only has inflated rating due to not playing.

If he was getting out on the park you'd see he's not that good.

It's not hard to figure out who might scrape onto an AFL list.

But saying Coniglio is not up to it just makes you look a fool.

I'm sure more than a couple of recruiters saw the man child Membrey as the second coming of Jack Darling and got overly excited.

The Coniglio situation for me is very similar to that of Dom Tyson. Hasn't played much but is highly rated and shows flashes of being a really good young player.