Rating 2014 - 99% sure it wont be about the wins & losses

[TGR 1,367]

Since his appointment Roos has often referred to Melbourne as a "2 win - 56 percentage team".

I think there are 4 ways we can go in 2014. Usually 5 ways, but because we were that bad, we can't get any worse.

So the 4 ways we can go will be:

- No improvement - which will be a failure. Similar wins, similar percentage, similar non-competitiveness, similar it is the 2nd quarter and the game is over.

- Major improvement ala Port Adelaide - Unlikely....as this is a once in a decade phenomenon at best. The sceptic would say "they won 5 games by single digit margins (4 by less than a goal). Their wins included GWS twice, MFC once, Gold Coast twice, The JMac drive wont be as high in 2014 either, so I expect them not to make the 8 in 2014."

Port was a "5 win - 78% team" in 2012 probably shows a better rebound position in terms of percentage, compared to Bulldogs (who had equal wins in 2012), Gold Coast (who had 2 less wins in 2012)

- Moderate improvement ala Gold Coast. Gold Coast in 2012 were a "3 win - 60 percentage team". In 2013, they became an "8 win - 90 percentage team". I think this is the best-case we can realistically hope for.

- Mild improvement ala Bulldogs. From year (2012) to year (2013), this was mild improvement. From first half of this year, to latter, it was moderate plus. They finished 15th in 2012, and 15th in 2013, but only a fool would suggest no improvement. But the percentage went from 67% in 2012, to 85% in 2013. When Neeld's Melbourne and McCartney's Bulldogs were both under the pump earlier in the year, one stat was remarkably different. Melbourne was 18th in contested possession, whereas the bulldogs were top 5. Maybe this stat is where everything starts....but percentage reflects more than we might think.

A good result will be a percentage 80-90, which will reflect much more competitiveness, less blow-outs, and being in games for longer. I think this is the key.

RRE might say 6 wins in 2014, 9 wins in 2015, 12 wins in 2016....etc.

I say 78-83% in 2014 as the starting point.

Roos will be like Ross Lyon (or vice versa). They won't be outcome driven like us supporters tend to be. The score won't matter as much as the process, the role, the internal expectations the KPPs.

[Gorgoroth 12,924]

Percentage in a lot of ways will be what I will be wanting to see up around 85-90%, in some ways I'll pay more attention to that than wins as it will mean we are not getting flogged.

[Pates 9,660]

Certainly much of what was wrong with 2013 was not just the amount of losses but the way we lost. When the the game gets away from us the players need to find a way to stop it from getting out of hand. This was something Roos was particularly good at with Sydney.

That said the win/loss ratio definitely must improve, depressing as it sounds I'll accept a 5 win season as long as we aren't getting flogged every bloody week. But I also think that massive improvement isn't out of the question, it's all about momentum.

[Webber 10,454]

Good speculative topic. We'll be somewhere between the Doggies and Suns of this year I reckon. A HUGE amount depends on total games lost to injuries through the list. Another reason we need more players in the mid to late 20's age wise. If we have one out of the box for keeping players out there, history tells that we'll push for the 8. But the reverse situation would see us similar to this year, but not devoid of hope.

[Young Dee 1,303]

Since his appointment Roos has often referred to Melbourne as a "2 win - 56 percentage team".

I think there are 4 ways we can go in 2014. Usually 5 ways, but because we were that bad, we can't get any worse.

So the 4 ways we can go will be:

- No improvement - which will be a failure. Similar wins, similar percentage, similar non-competitiveness, similar it is the 2nd quarter and the game is over.

- Major improvement ala Port Adelaide - Unlikely....as this is a once in a decade phenomenon at best. The sceptic would say "they won 5 games by single digit margins (4 by less than a goal). Their wins included GWS twice, MFC once, Gold Coast twice, The JMac drive wont be as high in 2014 either, so I expect them not to make the 8 in 2014."

Port was a "5 win - 78% team" in 2012 probably shows a better rebound position in terms of percentage, compared to Bulldogs (who had equal wins in 2012), Gold Coast (who had 2 less wins in 2012)

- Moderate improvement ala Gold Coast. Gold Coast in 2012 were a "3 win - 60 percentage team". In 2013, they became an "8 win - 90 percentage team". I think this is the best-case we can realistically hope for.

- Mild improvement ala Bulldogs. From year (2012) to year (2013), this was mild improvement. From first half of this year, to latter, it was moderate plus. They finished 15th in 2012, and 15th in 2013, but only a fool would suggest no improvement. But the percentage went from 67% in 2012, to 85% in 2013. When Neeld's Melbourne and McCartney's Bulldogs were both under the pump earlier in the year, one stat was remarkably different. Melbourne was 18th in contested possession, whereas the bulldogs were top 5. Maybe this stat is where everything starts....but percentage reflects more than we might think.

A good result will be a percentage 80-90, which will reflect much more competitiveness, less blow-outs, and being in games for longer. I think this is the key.

RRE might say 6 wins in 2014, 9 wins in 2015, 12 wins in 2016....etc.

I say 78-83% in 2014 as the starting point.

Roos will be like Ross Lyon (or vice versa). They won't be outcome driven like us supporters tend to be. The score won't matter as much as the process, the role, the internal expectations the KPPs.

That's kind of disrespectful!

Anyway - I am not really concerned about wins I just want to see every Melbourne player giving their best and us to be competitive.

I want to be able to watch games week in week out. I want to go into a game thinking that we can win it - not that we will get smashed by +100.

Thats all I want from next year (so basically a different team).

Edited September 25, 2013 by Young Dee

[Sir Why You Little 36,985]

All depends how easy the ball leaves the midfield.

[TGR 1,367]

That's kind of disrespectful!

Anyway - I am not really concerned about wins I just want to see every Melbourne player giving their best and us to be competitive.

I want to be able to watch games week in week out. I want to go into a game thinking that we can win it - not that we will get smashed by +100.

Thats all I want from next year (so basically a different team).

Not disrespectful at all.

Surely the death of JMac was a huge galvanising and motivating force for Port for season 2013.

The level of hurt now is still significant, but nowhere near the levels of one year ago.

Do the maths.

[Hannibal 5,814]

Roos got it wrong at his first presser as Dees coach. He has subsequently mentioned the correct percentage.

54

[Bring-Back-Powell 14,778]

Ill be doing cartwheels if we have Gold Coast like improvement.

6 wins with a percentage of 80 and Roos would've earnt every cent, in 12 months.

[Cheap Seats 3,310]

For mine I don't see us making much improvement until we get some midfield run - no earth shattering news there

But from either development of our current crops or trading/drafting we need ready to go mids now and we need at minimum 10 - 12.....

I count off the top of my head (from what I've heard ppl say (watts on radio etc) and some guess work)

Ready to go rd 1 2014

Watts

Sylvia

Jones M

Jones N

Viney

Toump

McKenzie

Trengove

Grimes IMO is not an AFL mid standard at the moment, neither are

Blease

Taggart etc etc

I'm sure I've missed a couple but my point is we don't have quality depth of ready to go mids - IMO we won't get much better unless we can improve that list from development or recruiting... Roosy has a big job ahead

[beelzebub 23,313]

All depends how easy the ball leaves the midfield.

more the point...which direction !!

[beelzebub 23,313]

Itll all revolve around the game plan

Bails had us flying at times with a fast and loose attacking style that was fine....right up until you're pressure cooked and find yourself defending ground and coming unstuck because you dont know how to do it.

Neeld had us defending at all costs. He seemed more engrossed with playing keepings off in teh back 50 than having any capacity to push through and score. I mean why..hell its only the way you win...lol

Roos knows how to combine both. I imagine he will play to strengths of players and strengthen the players to play to win.

wont happen overnight...but it might just happen

Stop the deluge running to the defenders and you have more than an even chance..

I expect to see a team drill in contesting and controlling the midfield. it will be dour looking footy until they learn to spread their wings ( sts)

Expect percentage to be vastly improved as even if we arent winning much the losses will be capped.

[Return to Glory 8,412]

For me, it will be how often I walk to Richmond station before 3 quarter time. 5 this year. 3 would be better.

[Je Roos Salem 661]

Our lack of scoring/want to score was appalling. The way we were coached we deserved that percentage. Several games under Neeld we were in damage control mode for two thirds of the game, at the MCG, alienating fans just to stop a side from scoring a few extra goals (of course, most times we couldn't). Come Round 1 next year, what i'll immediately be looking for is an attitude change over four quarters, and boy, it'll be easy to see. Did see improvement under Craig, but even our wins against the Dogs and GWS were soured by poor attitude over some of the game. The way we played in 2013 warranted 0 wins. I've seen 3 win and 4 win seasons in recent seasons with attitude improvements of at least 100%

I hope Roos really emphasises making each game extremely important and that we will play a certain way and not turn the game into a training drill or a learning curve for 2 years' time. No giving up/compromising, the fans are sick of it

[Dees2014 2,377]

Since his appointment Roos has often referred to Melbourne as a "2 win - 56 percentage team".

I think there are 4 ways we can go in 2014. Usually 5 ways, but because we were that bad, we can't get any worse.

So the 4 ways we can go will be:

- No improvement - which will be a failure. Similar wins, similar percentage, similar non-competitiveness, similar it is the 2nd quarter and the game is over.

- Major improvement ala Port Adelaide - Unlikely....as this is a once in a decade phenomenon at best. The sceptic would say "they won 5 games by single digit margins (4 by less than a goal). Their wins included GWS twice, MFC once, Gold Coast twice, The JMac drive wont be as high in 2014 either, so I expect them not to make the 8 in 2014."

Port was a "5 win - 78% team" in 2012 probably shows a better rebound position in terms of percentage, compared to Bulldogs (who had equal wins in 2012), Gold Coast (who had 2 less wins in 2012)

- Moderate improvement ala Gold Coast. Gold Coast in 2012 were a "3 win - 60 percentage team". In 2013, they became an "8 win - 90 percentage team". I think this is the best-case we can realistically hope for.

- Mild improvement ala Bulldogs. From year (2012) to year (2013), this was mild improvement. From first half of this year, to latter, it was moderate plus. They finished 15th in 2012, and 15th in 2013, but only a fool would suggest no improvement. But the percentage went from 67% in 2012, to 85% in 2013. When Neeld's Melbourne and McCartney's Bulldogs were both under the pump earlier in the year, one stat was remarkably different. Melbourne was 18th in contested possession, whereas the bulldogs were top 5. Maybe this stat is where everything starts....but percentage reflects more than we might think.

A good result will be a percentage 80-90, which will reflect much more competitiveness, less blow-outs, and being in games for longer. I think this is the key.

RRE might say 6 wins in 2014, 9 wins in 2015, 12 wins in 2016....etc.

I say 78-83% in 2014 as the starting point.

Roos will be like Ross Lyon (or vice versa). They won't be outcome driven like us supporters tend to be. The score won't matter as much as the process, the role, the internal expectations the KPPs.

I would be very surprised if we didn't "do" a Port Adelaide, provided:

- we acquired 2-3 quality mids through trading

- we play Watts and Fitzpatrick in the midfield, preferably on either wing

- we can keep our "four towers" ie key forwards Clark, Howe, Dowes, Hogan on the park and firing

- we acquire a quality crumbling forward eg One of the Carlton crew

- Viney remains fit and healthy.

Reasons for saying this is:

- we know there will be at least a 50% improvement in the way we are coached

- there will be a quality, stable administration and Board backing the coaching staff

- our forward line fully fit would be in the top 3 or 4 in the league, but we need quality mids to get it up there

- we have a quality back line

- I suspect two of the really big improvers next year will be Gawn and Spencer, Jamar will be traded I suspect to Brisbane to reunite with Maloney

- I would nominate the Crows, Magpies, Cats, Dons, Lions, Tigers, Blues, Swans, Bulldogs for various reasons being in decline next year.

There are very good reasons to be optimistic about next year, and yes for me it ultimately comes down to wins and losses. I am predicting 12 wins and squeezing into the eight in generally a more even competition.

Edited September 25, 2013 by Dees2014

[DemonFrog 1,354]

Its the MFC where winning is not important LOL

[jackaub 1,402]

Itll all revolve around the game plan

Bails had us flying at times with a fast and loose attacking style that was fine....right up until you're pressure cooked and find yourself defending ground and coming unstuck because you dont know how to do it.

Neeld had us defending at all costs. He seemed more engrossed with playing keepings off in teh back 50 than having any capacity to push through and score. I mean why..hell its only the way you win...lol

Roos knows how to combine both. I imagine he will play to strengths of players and strengthen the players to play to win.

wont happen overnight...but it might just happen

Stop the deluge running to the defenders and you have more than an even chance..

I expect to see a team drill in contesting and controlling the midfield. it will be dour looking footy until they learn to spread their wings ( sts)

Expect percentage to be vastly improved as even if we arent winning much the losses will be capped.

Very Good analysis Belzby I sure hope you are right

Maybe the previous 2 coaches tried hard to fix what was their view of the problem but they failed to properly identfy wahat exactly it was

In the end it was everything was a problem and the entire team needed to be rebuild and re skilled

[Whispering_Jack 29,805]

If it's a question of rating the success or otherwise of 2014 for the MFC at the end of the season, I don't think you can discount the importance of winning games. The game at this level is all about winning and we're in a position now where we've lost the ability to win. Percentage is another measure of how a team's performing but you won't console Kangaroos supporters by telling them their team's percentage of 119.53 (6th best in the competition) was fantastic when they finished tenth.

Port Adelaide's improvement in 2013 was measured in the main by its wins - those early victories gave it momentum and even when it started losing games from rounds 6 to 10, the points from those wins kept it going and allowed it to remain close enough to the leading pack and to stay focussed on success into the second half of the season.

That said, there's obviously a relationship between wins and percentage and our paltry 54.07 provides some guide to how deficient we were on match days - a deficiency that barely altered with the change of coaches in mid season.

One thing was obvious to me, even in games when we supposedly "played well" and that was the capacity of opposition teams to carve through the team like butter over short periods of time.

Our last game of the season against the Bulldogs at Etihad was a case in point. We had our moments early and could have taken control. Then suddenly, an 8 goals 2 behinds to nothing burst in 15 minutes during the second quarter blew us out of the water. Yet we lost the game by "only" 20 points in the end.

There were too many such games and I'm not qualified to explain these lapses. Was it lack of fitness, poor attitude/discipline, the coaching or lack of player depth, the third world midfield collapsing under pressure?

The new broom that an experienced coach like Paul Roos can wield combined with the new leadership at the top will have an effect. Recruiting will be crucial as will player development and the fitness of the list. Will we be able to get Clark, Dawes & Hogan on the park together regularly so that a Howe becomes 4th forward? Will we improve our midfield with new players and natural development from the likes of Viney and Toumpas?

I think the aim will definitely still be on winning and the percentage side should take care of itself but yes, when the dust clears and the season's over I would expect a much higher percentage than 54.07.

I don't consider Port's rise as a once in a decade phenomenon. Adelaide and West Coast did much the same in the years before them but we're coming off a lower base so I'll lower my expectations to the point where I'd like us to be where Port are now in two year's time.

[rjay 24,887]

Roos will be like Ross Lyon (or vice versa). They won't be outcome driven like us supporters tend to be. The score won't matter as much as the process, the role, the internal expectations the KPPs.

Don't fall for that one. The only thing Roos and Lyon haven't been concerned about is the amount of the score they kick to beat the opposition. They are both very focussed on winning the game, everything they do is about the outcome. Remember the only KPI that counts is the scoreboard, the process and role is all about winning.

Do you think Lyon will be satisfied in losing this weeks GF that everyone played their role and the KPI's were good but "we were just beaten by a better side on the day". I don't think so.

...all this process and role stuff is a snow job fed to supporters when you can't win a game or are not performing to expectations.

My expectation is to go to the footy next year and think we are a chance to win the game. I don't want a year like this year where we had little or no hope, wanting us to at least be competitive and contain the margin of the loss.

[Pates 9,660]

Don't fall for that one. The only thing Roos and Lyon haven't been concerned about is the amount of the score they kick to beat the opposition. They are both very focussed on winning the game, everything they do is about the outcome. Remember the only KPI that counts is the scoreboard, the process and role is all about winning.

Do you think Lyon will be satisfied in losing this weeks GF that everyone played their role and the KPI's were good but "we were just beaten by a better side on the day". I don't think so.

...all this process and role stuff is a snow job fed to supporters when you can't win a game or are not performing to expectations.

My expectation is to go to the footy next year and think we are a chance to win the game. I don't want a year like this year where we had little or no hope, wanting us to at least be competitive and contain the margin of the loss.

If Roos can get our players to hunt the opposition in the way Ross Lyon for Freo to do against Sydney I will be overcome with joy. It's exactly the sort of thing that has been missing from our club.

[H_T 3,043]

Not disrespectful at all.

Surely the death of JMac was a huge galvanising and motivating force for Port for season 2013.

The level of hurt now is still significant, but nowhere near the levels of one year ago.

Do the maths.

It wasn't the only galvanising and motivational force for Port in 2013.

An addition to your maths equation should be three more significant factors.

1/ Newly appointed coach Ken Hinkley and what he brought to the table - very significant "coach" which Port players respect and follow.

2/ Newly appointed President David Koch. A breath of fresh air, popular, goodwill towards supporters and support of new coach, new corporate sponsors, positive appointment.

3/ Newly appointed fitness guru who has single handedly turned their fitness regime around in one off-season.

You cannot tell me these 3 significant factors didn't contribute in any significant fashion to the galvanising and team oriented comraderie/force at the Power in season 2013.

[PJ_12345 1,098]

It's all about our improving the midfield, turnovers and fitness.

I don't think if everything goes to plan we would be any where near Port's improvement - towards the end of the season they were playing like a regular finals team and that die hard attitude is something that can't be taught.

To be honest I just want us to beat St. Kilda, Brisbane and Carlton...

[Maldonboy38 6,390]

I see us with only 2-3 wins in the first half of 2014 as our players struggle to break free from Neeld's poor game style and embrace the stoppage based game endorsed by Roos. Players like N Jones and Trengove will be the players who get it first and lead the rest of the team into the new game style. We will win 4-6 games in the second half of the year and end up with a percentage around 75%

But the measures for success in 2014 will be:

- a percentage of 70-80%

- Stoppage wins, contested ball wins

- Equalising possessions and disposals per game. This was the key to our weakness under Neeld.

- Playing an even game across 4 quarters. So often we were in the game for 3 quarters and got blown away by a 6-10 goal blitz in 1 quarter.

Edit: add 1 more thing. Beat the Pies on Queen's birthday. Pllleeeeaaaasssee!!

Edited September 25, 2013 by Maldonboy38

[old dee 23,781]

For me, it will be how often I walk to Richmond station before 3 quarter time. 5 this year. 3 would be better.

Did you only go to five games this year RtG?

[Johnny Karate 559]

Football is a game of momentum - it's about capitalising on your opportunities when you're on top and minimising the damage when things don't go your way. Talent helps but belief is paramount in achieving these aims.

When things go our way during the course of a game we might string two or three goals together in 10 minutes. When they don't we might string two or three possessions together in twenty and cop a handy cricket score in the meantime.

Our improvement will come from Roos' ability to instill belief and then structures into the team.