2011 Pass Mark

[jayceebee31 759]

We can, but they have a side a lot like ours.

Lots of young talent that is starting to develop.

I think our tall stocks are better and our mids have more class, but you can draw parallels between the 2.

Concur- will be a ding dong battle for many years to come..IMO.too.

[sylvinator 96]

I think there will be just a little bit more short term pain, i'm personally hoping for 7th-10th, with 10 wins.

it

Our midfield is our weakest division at the moment (though should soon become a strength), and we can't underestimate the loss of 2 of our best runners in McDonald and Bruce. It means that next year, Scully, Trengove, Gysberts etc will have plenty of time on-ball, plenty of responsibility, which will be good long term but realistically they are not quite ready to lead a midfield division.

Watts, Scully, Trengove, Grimes, Jurrah, Tapscott, Gysberts, Morton etc are just plain inexperienced. Not enough games under their belt just yet.

I'm expecting a huge break out season in 2012, I think it's just a little to early to be expecting it in 2011.

It will still be a really enjoyable year. Can't wait to see all our youngsters edge towards 50-100 games

[Grandson of a gun 276]

I think there will be just a little bit more short term pain, i'm personally hoping for 7th-10th, with 10 wins.

it

Our midfield is our weakest division at the moment (though should soon become a strength), and we can't underestimate the loss of 2 of our best runners in McDonald and Bruce. It means that next year, Scully, Trengove, Gysberts etc will have plenty of time on-ball, plenty of responsibility, which will be good long term but realistically they are not quite ready to lead a midfield division.

Watts, Scully, Trengove, Grimes, Jurrah, Tapscott, Gysberts, Morton etc are just plain inexperienced. Not enough games under their belt just yet.

I'm expecting a huge break out season in 2012, I think it's just a little to early to be expecting it in 2011.

It will still be a really enjoyable year. Can't wait to see all our youngsters edge towards 50-100 games

I think you are correct Sylv...

The likes of Scully, Trengove, McKenzie, Gysberts, Morton and then maybe Blease just don't yet have the bodies to win hard contested footy constantly. Yes we have Sylvia, Jones and Moloney to assist but i still see that at times during games we will get monstered at the stoppages. What is important though is that the midfielders are more accountable and put more pressure on the opposition mids when they have the ball to 1) reduce the number of inside 50's against which was far too high this year and 2) make the job easier for the backline who can then hopefully force the turnover and hurt them on the rebound.

We also need to get the ball inside our forward 50 at least 25% more (preferably 50%) to give our forwards a chance. Then delivery comes into it.

A lot comes down to how quickly these mids develop. Because the more ball they get, the more ball our forwards get and therefore the faster our forwards develop. (It was pretty tough for the likes of Watts, Jurrah and co when they only saw the ball 35-45 times a game while the opposition had 60 plus).

7 weeks and 6 days...............

[jayceebee31 759]

I agree, when you put it like that it sounds absurd. However, if you go through the draw for next year one round at a time, mark off which games we should win, which we should lose and which are 50-50, then tally up the results you'll get a pretty similar figure.

My take on next season so far shows 11 clearly winnable games and 4 50/50. Assuming we win half of the 50/50's that puts us up to 13. If we were to win them all, it's 15. Simple. As with last year, I won't be at all surprised if there are some massive changes, but if one side performs above expectations, it's a safe bet that another will perform well below. That is the way it worked out this year when I had Fremantle as easybeats and Brisbane as a strong side. It all evened out in the end.

It's worth noting that I'm confident of a few wins interstate this coming season. I think West Coast is very doable, the GC should be ours for the taking, although I consider them a real danger, especially late in the year when they've had a chance to gel a bit. Richmond will throw everything at us, but we are a year or two ahead of them and should have their measure. North Melbourne is a side we should be aiming to beat, but who continually walk all over us, so I'd love to see us knock them off this time.

R1 v Sydney (MCG), Sunday March 27 Win

R2 v Hawthorn (MCG), Sunday April 3 (t) Loss

R3 v Brisbane Lions (MCG), Sunday April 10 (e) Win

R4 v Gold Coast (G), Sunday April 17 Win

R5 bye

R6 v West Coast (PS), Thursday April 28 (n) 50/50

R7 v Adelaide (MCG), Sunday May 8 Win

R8 v North Melbourne (ES), Saturday May 14 50/50

R9 v St Kilda (ES), Saturday May 21 Loss

R10 v Carlton (MCG), Friday May 27 (n) 50/50

R11 v Essendon (MCG), Friday June 3 (n) Win

R12 v Collingwood (MCG), Monday June 13 Loss

R13 v Fremantle (MCG), Sunday June 19 (e) Loss

R14 v Richmond (MCG), Saturday June 25 Win

R15 v Western Bulldogs (ES), Friday July 1 (n) Loss

R16 bye

R17 v Port Adelaide (TIO), Saturday July 16 (n) Win

R18 v Hawthorn (MCG), Sunday July 24 Loss

R19 v Geelong (SS), Saturday July 30 Loss

R20 v Carlton (MCG), Saturday August 6 50/50

R21 v West Coast (ES), Sunday August 14 (e) Win

R22 v Richmond (MCG), Sunday August 21 (t) Win

R23 v Gold Coast (MCG), Sunday August 28 Win

R24 v Port Adelaide (AS) TBC Win

I agree wholeheartedly except I have 3 of your maybe's in for a win..and don't be surprised if we win Rd2,Rd 15 & R18..this IMO.. I think we can beat Hawthorn..

[mauriesy 7,236]

I would have thought if you improve all the KPIs (e.g. quarters won, tackles, inside 50s, rebounds, stoppages, clearances, individual player possessions etc.) that everyone has listed, then more wins will naturally follow. That is if the KPIs actually mean anything and are valid.

PS. After a 1-point loss and a draw last year, I don't know why everyone automatically puts the QB match against Collingwood as a loss.

[drdrake 3,156]

I can't understand why people think the Bulldogs are ahead of us, the bulldogs will miss the 8 in 2011, we will high five them on the way up the ladder as they progress towards an extended period in the bottom 4. Same as North, we will finish higher then North. I also believe the Saints will slide they will drop to 6-8th.

[DeeSpencer 25,396]

I can't understand why people think the Bulldogs are ahead of us, the bulldogs will miss the 8 in 2011, we will high five them on the way up the ladder as they progress towards an extended period in the bottom 4. Same as North, we will finish higher then North. I also believe the Saints will slide they will drop to 6-8th.

North are solid, and we wont be ahead of them on the ladder unless we can beat them which we haven't done in yonks. I don't think there is much between our best sides (but I think our list is stronger). The dogs have too much young talent for an extended bottom 4 stay. I think they will drop and maybe we will overtake them if we are very lucky.

[drdrake 3,156]

What young taletn three father and sons and a key forward that can't kick. North aren't solid they are a house of cards and the wind in Ballarat will blow them over.

[Fork 'em 6,983]

PS. After a 1-point loss and a draw last year, I don't know why everyone automatically puts the QB match against Collingwood as a loss.

Me either , we obviously match up well and will soon have their number IMO .

Would love to meet them in a Final . B)

[e25 5]

I can't understand why people think the Bulldogs are ahead of us, the bulldogs will miss the 8 in 2011, we will high five them on the way up the ladder as they progress towards an extended period in the bottom 4. Same as North, we will finish higher then North. I also believe the Saints will slide they will drop to 6-8th.

Don't underestimate either the Doggies or North.

Both are well set for an extended stay in the top 8.

Saints are likely to finish 4-8 in my opinion.

[e25 5]

I agree, when you put it like that it sounds absurd. However, if you go through the draw for next year one round at a time, mark off which games we should win, which we should lose and which are 50-50, then tally up the results you'll get a pretty similar figure.

My take on next season so far shows 11 clearly winnable games and 4 50/50. Assuming we win half of the 50/50's that puts us up to 13. If we were to win them all, it's 15. Simple. As with last year, I won't be at all surprised if there are some massive changes, but if one side performs above expectations, it's a safe bet that another will perform well below. That is the way it worked out this year when I had Fremantle as easybeats and Brisbane as a strong side. It all evened out in the end.

It's worth noting that I'm confident of a few wins interstate this coming season. I think West Coast is very doable, the GC should be ours for the taking, although I consider them a real danger, especially late in the year when they've had a chance to gel a bit. Richmond will throw everything at us, but we are a year or two ahead of them and should have their measure. North Melbourne is a side we should be aiming to beat, but who continually walk all over us, so I'd love to see us knock them off this time.

R1 v Sydney (MCG), Sunday March 27 Win

R2 v Hawthorn (MCG), Sunday April 3 (t) Loss

R3 v Brisbane Lions (MCG), Sunday April 10 (e) Win

R4 v Gold Coast (G), Sunday April 17 Win

R5 bye

R6 v West Coast (PS), Thursday April 28 (n) 50/50

R7 v Adelaide (MCG), Sunday May 8 Win

R8 v North Melbourne (ES), Saturday May 14 50/50

R9 v St Kilda (ES), Saturday May 21 Loss

R10 v Carlton (MCG), Friday May 27 (n) 50/50

R11 v Essendon (MCG), Friday June 3 (n) Win

R12 v Collingwood (MCG), Monday June 13 Loss

R13 v Fremantle (MCG), Sunday June 19 (e) Loss

R14 v Richmond (MCG), Saturday June 25 Win

R15 v Western Bulldogs (ES), Friday July 1 (n) Loss

R16 bye

R17 v Port Adelaide (TIO), Saturday July 16 (n) Win

R18 v Hawthorn (MCG), Sunday July 24 Loss

R19 v Geelong (SS), Saturday July 30 Loss

R20 v Carlton (MCG), Saturday August 6 50/50

R21 v West Coast (ES), Sunday August 14 (e) Win

R22 v Richmond (MCG), Sunday August 21 (t) Win

R23 v Gold Coast (MCG), Sunday August 28 Win

R24 v Port Adelaide (AS) TBC Win

Ralph, it's a bit naive to assume any team will win all of their "winnable" games, especially a young team.

Our biggest issue will be consistency and backing up after a tough fought match, whether the opposition are "easy" or not.

To win 3/4 of the "easily winnable" matches would be a good result, as well as half of the 50/50s.

I'm as excited and optimistic about our team as anyone, but I think a few are getting ahead of themselves based on as yet unrealized potential.

[e25 5]

I think Adelaide will be better in 2011. Port won't go backwards.

Sydney are not easy beats even if we did just that in round 17.

Richmond are not behind us in development as you say - if anything they are ahead of us, but our ceiling is much higher.

[H_T 3,043]

that's a load of crap, are you a pollie, you talk spin, if we are 0=6, that means we are not competitive, and it will be doomsday, if we don't win a least 8 games then it will be another 5 years before we are in the 8 again, YOU CAN DEVELOP FOREVERY, there is a time when only wins matter, and that time is now, if we don't win games then Bailey will be out the door, that the way it is

MFCSS.

If you had read my post correctly ("If we are 0-6, even having been competitive"), you might have avoided the high blood pressure and the temper tantrum.

I'd be interested to know your threshold for how many wins it will take for Bailey to be safe, seeing as you're so hamstrung on wins for 2011 ?

[Guest DeesPower]

Bing this time last year we had 8 players coming off longterm injuries/ operations.

Not one in this category this year.

Yes someone can go down with an injury today.

However We are in a much better position at the end of 2010 than we were last year.

PS Sylvia was not injured in the last practise match it was earlier.

Jurrah and Bell were injured in Adelaide in the last practise match.

We also have a very very favourable draw.

I agree we need to stop thinking of ourselves as a "developing" side. If we play consistently well such as against the Woods (twice), Swans, and the Lions (1st time), we should not only be in the 8, but possibly top 4.

I do have a concern about our experienced and mature bodies amoungst our group. Some of the youngsters (Trengove, Watts, to some extent Scully) really dropped away towards the end of last season. I would hate to see what sometimes happened under ND where we were 1,2 or 3 by the half way mark, and far too often barely made the eight.

I've watched our last four wins of the season a couple of times on T-box recently, and it was not our brilliant youngsters who got us there, but Bruce, Jamar, Green and Dunn. All experienced players. I know we have to blood the youngsters, but i would hate to think it was to be at the expense of going well into September. I can think of no better blooding them than finals football

[Trisul 664]

I would have thought if you improve all the KPIs (e.g. quarters won, tackles, inside 50s, rebounds, stoppages, clearances, individual player possessions etc.) that everyone has listed, then more wins will naturally follow. That is if the KPIs actually mean anything and are valid.

PS. After a 1-point loss and a draw last year, I don't know why everyone automatically puts the QB match against Collingwood as a loss.

That is, unless, the opposition (or enough of them) improve all their KPIs. Or the KPIs that matter.

[Disco Demons 92]

i must say i don't think anybody has mentioned our backline. (Everyone always seems to forget the backline! ha)

2010 was a great year for our backline. Frawley, Garland, Bartram, Grimes, etc... Looked like they enjoyed playing there (much of the time)

it's the most settled area we have on the ground and hardest to crack into at the moment.

Surely melb will be looking to add to the dynamics of the backline this year. Considering rule changes like the cap on interchanges...

mind you we lost our backline coach to the bombers..i'm sure that won't have an impact.

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

Ralph, it's a bit naive to assume any team will win all of their "winnable" games, especially a young team.

Obviously the exact same comment can be made for games you expect to lose but sneak an upset

[Curry & Beer 5,444]

And the MFC have to expose their talent to the AFL more than they need to play in a losing final.

but what exactly are you worried about? I can only imagine that you mean older players (old enough to not be part of our premiership tilt) taking a spot in the 22 over a kid... but there aren't any players like that! Green is our oldest now and he's obviously not getting dropped!

[jayceebee31 759]

Don't underestimate either the Doggies or North.

Both are well set for an extended stay in the top 8.

Saints are likely to finish 4-8 in my opinion.

What odds will you give me that the Dees end up on the ladder above the Saints,Bulldogs and the Kangas @ end of the year....come on E put up or shut up...

[H_T 3,043]

125-1.

[mauriesy 7,236]

That is, unless, the opposition (or enough of them) improve all their KPIs. Or the KPIs that matter.

If you improve your KPIs, the teams you are playing against will normally worsen theirs. You can't all gain more KPI stats.

[Sir Why You Little 36,926]

What odds will you give me that the Dees end up on the ladder above the Saints,Bulldogs and the Kangas @ end of the year....come on E put up or shut up...

mmmm very interesting concept there. We could end up above all three of those sides if EVERYTHING went right. The Talent is there. It's the application that is still learning. Still being totally switched on late in the 4th Q.

70-1 are my odds....

We are aiming at 7th 0r 8th spot next year along with Carlton, North, Adelaide, Sydney & maybe Hawthorn or Freo.

[e25 5]

What odds will you give me that the Dees end up on the ladder above the Saints,Bulldogs and the Kangas @ end of the year....come on E put up or shut up...

Stupid comment.

It is unrelated to what I was saying.

[drdrake 3,156]

If a bookie gave me 125/1 or 70/1 that the we will finish higher then the Dogs, North and Saints I would put a couple of hundred on not a lot but it doesn't need to be at those odds, IMO our list is a lot more advanced than some think, we have players that will be 3-4 years in the system that are very very good footballers. The dogs have just beaten us the past two years we will touch them up next year, the Saints we should of won two years ago but Scully and Trengove were on offer last year we tried to play their game plan not ours and north we play Jones on Harvey even when he goes forward that says it all.

[H_T 3,043]

If a bookie gave me 125/1 or 70/1 that the we will finish higher then the Dogs, North and Saints I would put a couple of hundred on not a lot but it doesn't need to be at those odds, IMO our list is a lot more advanced than some think, we have players that will be 3-4 years in the system that are very very good footballers. The dogs have just beaten us the past two years we will touch them up next year, the Saints we should of won two years ago but Scully and Trengove were on offer last year we tried to play their game plan not ours and north we play Jones on Harvey even when he goes forward that says it all.

What odds would you give ?

{let's not forget, if I'm a bookmaker and in business, I'd want to attract business...)