How many games will we win?

[Sir Why You Little 36,683]

This was posted on D'Ology recently by Andy Moir who has been eager for some time to find out (I can't confirm whether this is 100% correct, but I thought you might want to be privvy to it here) : -

I could not put up with 4 or less wins. I hope we win more than 7.

I am Happy to win Quarters this year (first Half) after watching last saturday we are another year of pain away. Players may Progress quicker & returning injured players may prove me wrong, but i think its more our opposition is so much further ahead.

I know i picked the Demons to win on Saturday, but that's because i will not EVER pick the Filth to beat the MFC-i can't!!!

We may beat Richmond, North a slim chance, Freo if they are brittle in mind at the MCG.

Can our kids play 4 quarters of high pressure Football yet? Thats the reason i will be going to the Footy this year to find out.

[Felix 92]

lol... 2!

[Steamin Demon 392]

Gee its funny, Reading all these posts in FEB everyine was saying 6-8 wins. We would be lucky if we one 5-6 thats with Jurrah & Watts. The preseaon always drums up the emotions !!

[45HG 1,539]

Gee its funny, Reading all these posts in FEB everyine was saying 6-8 wins.

Indeed.

There are a fair number of posters who have jumped ship (after one game, honestly).

These were the two pre-season "How many games will we win" threads:

How many wins will we have and who will we beat and how many games will we win in 2010 season proper.

In one poll, two of 116 posters claimed we'd win less than 5. In the other, 2 of 148.

It's gone from roughly 1.8% to 50% after a game that only 24% of us thought we'd win.

Reminds me of a discussion a year ago with HT about how people vote in polls.

[... 11]

Indeed.

There are a fair number of posters who have jumped ship (after one game, honestly).

These were the two pre-season "How many games will we win" threads:

How many wins will we have and who will we beat and how many games will we win in 2010 season proper.

In one poll, two of 116 posters claimed we'd win less than 5. In the other, 2 of 148.

It's gone from roughly 1.8% to 50% after a game that only 24% of us thought we'd win.

Reminds me of a discussion a year ago with HT about how people vote in polls.

I thought we'd win 8 earlier this year. I have revised to 3 or 4 not after one game, but after the preseason performances, the one game, the horrible way we played that one game, the key player injuries we have, and the fact that the coach is still managing to raise the term 'competitive' on the back of a dead-time couple of goals.

The AFL site ladder allows for the inclusion of Q1 Q2 Q3 and Q4 wins. I'm looking forward to following that stat for all teams. It's too early to see a significant pattern yet, but I'll bet the bottom 8 will be littered with teams almost completely devoid of Q1&2 wins, but with a reasonable amount of Q3&4 wins. These are the teams whose coaches will be saying 'I was happy with the way the boys fought it out at the end, it's just a shame we didn't manage to play that way early on'. A crock.

Tomorrow I would be really happy to see us within a couple of goals at half time and then get run over the top of and lose by ten goals. I would not be happy to be 12 goals down at 3 quarter time and then kick the last 4 to lose by 8 goals.

I know I'm harping on about this, but until the coach comes out and admits that's the crux of the year, he won't have my trust in his ability or honesty. I wish him luck for tomorrow, because I wouldn't want his job tomorrow.

[The Great One 99 125]

I think we will improve, Hopefully big improve closer to the end of the season. (7-8 wins). But I would definately consider trading our first round pick for some more experiance depending on what was available. Wondering if others might think likewise.

[furious d 448]

Bump Anybody want to reassess again?

[Felix 92]

6 games, lets not get carried away now.

They are still developing the young boys, come on 18 players under 99 games played today.

Edited April 3, 2010 by Sturmmann

[old dee 23,506]

We are a good chance against Richmond (Twice), Adelaide (Twice )Nth. Melbourne and Freemantle 50/50 split. Maximum I can see with this very young side is 6 wins however it could easily be only 4.

I will not be happy but we are likely to get 5 wins and hopefully no 15 goal thrashings

[pitmaster 3,455]

Maintain todays effort and we will win more than we lose.

But with lots of kids we probably won't maintain today's effort.

I reckon eight wins would be a strong year - but on today's form we could be 2-2 in a fortnight.

[45HG 1,539]

And watch it swing back.

Billy, still think we wouldn't have a player in the top 10 of that mob?

[H_T 3,032]

Reminds me of a discussion a year ago with HT about how people vote in polls.

A year ago ? Was that the LJ thread ?

[praha 11,132]

5-6.

[Felix 92]

how many games next year? If they boys can finish with 6 this year I would say 10-11 wold be the likely mark for 2011. The boys will be getting solild game time with each other this year, and should be kicking but in the years to come.

[Cheesecake 92]

Indeed.

There are a fair number of posters who have jumped ship (after one game, honestly).

These were the two pre-season "How many games will we win" threads:

How many wins will we have and who will we beat and how many games will we win in 2010 season proper.

In one poll, two of 116 posters claimed we'd win less than 5. In the other, 2 of 148.

It's gone from roughly 1.8% to 50% after a game that only 24% of us thought we'd win.

Reminds me of a discussion a year ago with HT about how people vote in polls.

In one of those pre-season threads I suggested 7 - 8 wins, based on the following breakdown.

Realistic expectation of victory (6):

Richmond (@ MCG x 2)

North Melbourne (@ MCG)

West Coast (@ MCG)

Port Adelaide (@ TIO)

Sydney Swans (@ MCG)

(I think we can win 4 to 6 of these games)

Some chance of victory(7):

North Melbourne (@ Etihad)

Collingwood (@ MCG x 2)

Port Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Carlton (@ MCG)

Essendon (@ MCG)

Fremantle (@ Subiaco)

(and 1 to 3 of these games)

Major upset required (9):

Hawthorn (@ MCG x 2)

Adelaide (@ MCG)

Brisbane Lions (@ MCG)

Western Bulldogs (@ MCG)

Geelong (@ Skilled)

Adelaide (@ AAMI)

Brisbane Lions (@ Gabba)

St Kilda (@ Etihad)

(and maybe 1 of these)

Things haven't really changed much. At this stage ...

- North Melbourne (@ Etihad) might now be a 'realistic expectation of victory', instead of 'some chance'.

- Adelaide (@ AAMI) could now be 'some chance'.

- Fremantle (@ Subiaco) has probably blown out to a 'major upset'.

So, I've changed my expectations to 8 - 9 wins. (I voted 9, cause I'm an optimist).

Of course, this could all turn on its head again, if we go back to playing like we did in the NAB games.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

After Hawks none of us could see 6+ wins. I always thought we needed to turn it around within the first 4 rounds so that the 4 or so "winnables" in rounds 1-8 were chalked up before the season started to hurt the young legs.

Before and after the Hawks game I expected a boring 6 wins.

Though it must be said, the past three years of juicy draft picks have had me looking at one particular scenario with interest. I don't want to see another wooden spoon this year. That is priority number 1. But what if the Toigs won 3 and we won 4?

Tantalising, the idea of picks 1, 1, 2, 4 and 6 within 3 years, and two of those being superdrafts (and the other being Scully/Trengove).

Not saying I WANT this to happen. Still interesting to think about.

[TonyMelb 7]

After Hawks none of us could see 6+ wins. I always thought we needed to turn it around within the first 4 rounds so that the 4 or so "winnables" in rounds 1-8 were chalked up before the season started to hurt the young legs.

Before and after the Hawks game I expected a boring 6 wins.

Though it must be said, the past three years of juicy draft picks have had me looking at one particular scenario with interest. I don't want to see another wooden spoon this year. That is priority number 1. But what if the Toigs won 3 and we won 4?

Tantalising, the idea of picks 1, 1, 2, 4 and 6 within 3 years, and two of those being superdrafts (and the other being Scully/Trengove).

Not saying I WANT this to happen. Still interesting to think about.

We need a few wins in the first half of the year as draw in second half is tougher. Given MFC should be 2 -2 after 4 rounds and play the Toigs, North, Crows and Bluebaggers twice I would think we are likely to win at least 5 games in 2010 and about 5 possibles. So still think 7 or 8 depending on form and injuries for us and other sides.

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

After Hawks none of us could see 6+ wins. I always thought we needed to turn it around within the first 4 rounds so that the 4 or so "winnables" in rounds 1-8 were chalked up before the season started to hurt the young legs.

Before and after the Hawks game I expected a boring 6 wins.

Though it must be said, the past three years of juicy draft picks have had me looking at one particular scenario with interest. I don't want to see another wooden spoon this year. That is priority number 1. But what if the Toigs won 3 and we won 4?

Tantalising, the idea of picks 1, 1, 2, 4 and 6 within 3 years, and two of those being superdrafts (and the other being Scully/Trengove).

Not saying I WANT this to happen. Still interesting to think about.

Unless a bunch of those games we lost were like the Collingwood one it would show that we were going backward as a club. We MUST improve this year so that the players and supporters can believe that we are on the right track, and I don't think any amount of picks could dig us out of the hole we could find ourselves in if we don't win at least 6 games.

[Dee Fan 3,247]

Interestingly we got belted by Hawthorn in the first game of 2004 when we were expected to win and then went on to make the finals, going out to Essendon in the elimination by 5 points.

[45HG 1,539]

Bump?

[Summer Blease 0]

20

[Chook 15,000]

21, not including finals. But I'll be more than happy to revise my predictions next week.

I stand by my predictions. Since my bold statement, we have just barely lost to the Pies, and have gone on to win three on the trot. Go the Dees.

[Felix 92]

initially i had 6-7 (from memory) I would now say 11-13.

I hope Chook's prediction is 100% on the money.

[45HG 1,539]

Given we've lost 2, it'd be pretty tough for us to win 21, not including finals.

[Disco Demons 92]

just had a look at the draw..

melb play the pies on the 14th June again...if we are still in the eight then and win that game...i feel we have a great chance of playing off in the finals...BIG IF though...