Are we a real chance to win?

[Keyser Söze 0]

To be honest, I'd be disappointed but understanding.

Over and over and over again we're told these kids are inexperienced and will take time, so we can't be too surprised.

It's not so much a simple matter of not being switched on, I can hardly blame an 18 year old in their first game getting lost in traffic and the buzz of a half-full MCG, conceding a goal.

Trengove, Scully, Strauss, even a player like Maric, Bennell or Spencer could be excused for such lapses.

As C&B said, E25 has summed it up pretty well, but it's not just the kids having a lapse and conceding a goal themselves.

One of the kids has a lapse, his man gets away from him, a senior player leaves his own man to help cover, rotations are made and someone somewhere gets left open.

OR one of the kids misses the fact he needs to be part of a rotation and the system collapses like a house of cards.

This is why we look so incompetent at times. It doesn't take much in AFL footy to be made to look foolish.

These won't necessarily be new concepts for these kids, but the speed of the game will affect their ability to cope with them.

As well as a few of these kids have performed in the preseason matches, I think the intensity of H&A matches are much higher.

Hopefully the adjustment period is very brief.

It's a Learning Process and as long as we understand that, it is so much easier to find the necessary patience.

[Sir Why You Little 36,860]

we'll know in the first 15 minutes.

I agree, if we can kick the first couple of goals & we the supporters make heaps of noise the confidence will rise.

The Boys must be getting sick of reading & hearing all the Loosing scenarios for the entire season.

Big 48 hours for the Footy Dept and Bails to get the team in the exact frame of mind for 2.10 saturday-don't want young kids peaking too early

[Sir Why You Little 36,860]

Can't you see it happening though.. but as an above poster said it is (to an extent) excusable with this high school lineup

We have a really bad habit of completely dropping our bundle for 20-30 minutes and conceding an avalanche of goals. This is how we lose most of our matches, and often this bad period is right at the start of the match. If we go 4 quarters without one of these patches I will be happy with the effort even if it means we still get soundly beaten (although I guess it goes hand in hand with a solid 4 quarter effort that we WON'T be smashed, I mean losing each quarter by a goal or 2 and ending up 6 down or something like that will be acceptable).

I see where you are coming from and i agree on the effort point, but an 8 goal loss is unacceptable. That is how we must start to think even now.

Even close "Honourable" losses must not be acceptable-Yes they will Happen i know but too many times over many years the MFC has put in a shocker AFTER a close loss.

Our CEO has stated a couple of weeks ago that the Club expects to win 150 Home & Away Games in this next decade-that is the Blueprint.

Thats 15 wins a year-now we won't make that number this year, which will mean the ratio will increase in following years.

So its going to be great watching this evolve, the close loss must be despised by this club & by us the supporters.

[Roost It 1,434]

First week of Footy, Saturday at the G, solid opponent, does it get any better than that?

Of course we can bloody well win. We're in it to win it now. They have some big outs and our team looks pretty solid. Cam Bruce, Mark Jamar, Aaron Davey and Nathan Jones need to stand up and lead this team from the front

[Oliver Hill 0]

I don't expect to win, but I give us a sneaky chance.

The Hawks line-up outside Roughead, Mitchell and Hodge is woeful.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

I don't expect to win, but I give us a sneaky chance.

The Hawks line-up outside Roughead, Mitchell and Hodge is woeful.

This is the key.

Dunn will tag Mitchell. Warnock will go to Roughead. If these three are held and if we can kick some goals we are in with a big chance.

Our remaining 19 are probably superior to thier remaining 19.

[Retrospective 104]

Our CEO has stated a couple of weeks ago that the Club expects to win 150 Home & Away Games in this next decade-that is the Blueprint.

Thats 15 wins a year-now we won't make that number this year, which will mean the ratio will increase in following years.

So its going to be great watching this evolve, the close loss must be despised by this club & by us the supporters.

I expect that by 5 seasons into this decade plan we will need to lobby for the NAB cup to be abandoned and a move to 30 round home and away seasons to catch up.

I'll be there Saturday///of course but I don't expect the pain of the long suffering Dees supporter to end soon

[H_T 3,043]

This is the key.

Dunn will tag Mitchell. Warnock will go to Roughead. If these three are held and if we can kick some goals we are in with a big chance.

Our remaining 19 are probably superior to thier remaining 19.

Yes, "IF" we can kick enough goals ie. 90+ points, we're a slight chance.

[Straight Sets Simon 23,113]

Dunn will tag Mitchell.

I really hope not.

[Tatu 416]

I know its at the start of the season and we must try an stay positive but seriously does anyone give us a 'real' chance against Hawthorn.........from what i've seen so far this yr through the pre season matches it didnt look good.......having said that i have liked our backline structure so far and i can see where are mids are going but we have MAJOR problems in the forward line and to go into saturday with MILLER and MARTIN as our key forwards is nothing short of embarrassing.....however good luck to the boys and may dean and the boys prove me wrong....ur thoughts?

I'd rather dream about victory at the moment, than count how many stars they still have in there side(after injury-reports).

[Tatu 416]

Reminds me of the Freo game in 2008.

Seeing so many leaving at half time was crushing, but so so sweet in the end.

I almost cried.

think i did, it was a great victory that one.

[DirtyDees DDC 176]

We have a really bad habit of completely dropping our bundle for 20-30 minutes and conceding an avalanche of goals. This is how we lose most of our matches, and often this bad period is right at the start of the match.

We saw this problem in nearly every match last year and i was hoping it would disappear, but the same old bad habit resurfaced in the pre-season. The Wiggles kicked 7 straight and Freo jumped us in the first quarter.

Our most important players tomorrow are Bruce, Green, Davey, Junior and Miller - our 5 most experienced players. At least they will all take the field, but they've got to show leadership when the going gets tough. I want to see them encouraging the new players; slowing the game down to limit Hawthorn's opportunities; making correct decisions when under pressure.

We've got a good chance if we can take our chances and cover their top players - Hodge, Mitchell and Roughhead. Buddy and Sewell are huge losses and their list looks a bit thin from 16-22.

Whatever happens tomorrow, there may be a number of changes in personnel by August.

Have a look at the selected side, then add Morton, Sylvia, Jurrah, Garland and Watts. Throw in the youth of Wonna, Blease, Gysberts and Jetta and we will have some serious internal pressure for places in the 22. 'GO DEES!!!!!!'

[heartbeatstrue 57]

Form and history are against us but in any two horse race either team is a chance. Unlikely would be my response but definitely not no chance, alot can happen.

Spot on. Of course it's a possibility. This Dawks side isn't that great, just a lot more experienced. But young first game players can do some amazing things. They don't have a losing mentality in their brains, maybe they dream of something great and heroical and sometimes it happens.

Unlikely, but miss being at tomorrow's game and there's a chance you'll never forgive yourself.

[jabberwocky 2,301]

Put $20 on us at $4.50 at betezy.

[Whispering_Jack 29,623]

There's no doubt in my mind that we can win today but we have to show a lot more than we have over the NAB/practice match series.

I think that the selected team for today's game is of better quality and better prepared than the 26 man squads we put out on the ground during the pre season games - and in saying that, I'm taking into account our well documented injury problems. Meanwhile, the Hawks have also been hit hard by injuries and, according to yesterday's Herald Sun, they're worse off on the injury front than we are.

Melbourne does have to face a number of barriers to victory, one of which is the need to establish some self-belief after three years of consistently substandard, poor performance.

The patterns established in our preseason have been mirrored in what's taken place in the two completed games so far. In three of our games, we've gotten off to bright starts in the opening 10 - 15 minutes but have failed to convert on the scoreboard. When the opposition gained the ascendency, such as Essendon in the game at Visy Park, it took full advantage of our wayward kicking for goal and kicked accurately to set up a good lead and leaving us to chase tail. In Thursday night's game, Carlton showed the value of clean, accurate kicking for goal by blitzing the Tigers and forcing them to play catch up football that ultimately finished badly for them.

The other practice match pattern that we displayed was the fade out, generally believed to be a result of younger, lighter and less experienced bodies. This happened in three out of four preseason games (the exception being Adelaide). Similarly, Richmond and Essendon both faded out badly in their respective games against bigger bodied and more mature opposition.

Geelong looked almost down and out when their battle hardened brigade took over and G Ablett Jnr added a little extra to the price tag in the event that a GC17 deal remains unconsummated.

So if we can produce a good start and convert early, will our younger and lighter bodied side succumb in the end thus spoiling our chances of a victory?

Well, there's an interesting thread on 'ology which is based on a statistic from the Herald Sun which gives Melbourne a slight edge in both age and games played but such statistics can be damn lies. They still don't take into account the make up of the respective teams, the quality of the players or the quality of the games in their legs. How many Demons have played in big finals recently?

Three of our four newcomers are young kids while none of Hawthorn's newbies are spring chickens. Gibson and Hooper are recycled players with lots of previous AFL experience while Peterson and Kayler-Thomson are into their 20s and have been around the traps for a while.

The worry clearly remains that we'll be overrun when those chips are down as we often have been in our recent past but if that's our only worry for the day then I would (reluctantly) be prepared to cop it because it's somehting we can easily overcome in the medium term.

Even then there's no guarantee that this Hawthorn side has what it takes to destroy an opposition. I'm hoping we grab our chances and cause what most in the football world would call an "upset".

Despite pronouncements to the effect that it's a long road and we must be patient, all of which is true, such a result would really make a difference to the club in terms how the players perceive of themselves and how we, as supporters, perceive of our club which gets me back to the importance to our development of establishing self-belief.

[flog 20]

There's no doubt in my mind that we can win today but we have to show a lot more than we have over the NAB/practice match series. 

I think that the selected team for today's game is of better quality and better prepared than the 26 man squads we put out on the ground during the pre season games - and in saying that, I'm taking into account our well documented injury problems. Meanwhile, the Hawks have also been hit hard by injuries and, according to yesterday's Herald Sun, they're worse off on the injury front than we are.

Melbourne does have to face a number of barriers to victory, one of which is the need to establish some self-belief after three years of consistently substandard, poor performance. 

The patterns established in our preseason have been mirrored in what's taken place in the two completed games so far. In three of our games, we've gotten off to bright starts in the opening 10 - 15 minutes but have failed to convert on the scoreboard. When the opposition gained the ascendency, such as Essendon in the game at Visy Park, it took full advantage of our wayward kicking for goal and kicked accurately to set up a good lead and leaving us to chase tail. In Thursday night's game, Carlton showed the value of clean, accurate kicking for goal by blitzing the Tigers and forcing them to play catch up football that ultimately finished badly for them.

The other practice match pattern that we displayed was the fade out, generally believed to be a result of younger, lighter and less experienced bodies. This happened in three out of four preseason games (the exception being Adelaide). Similarly, Richmond and Essendon both faded out badly in their respective games against bigger bodied and more mature opposition.

Geelong looked almost down and out when their battle hardened brigade took over and G Ablett Jnr added a little extra to the price tag in the event that a GC17 deal remains unconsummated. 

So if we can produce a good start and convert early, will our younger and lighter bodied side succumb in the end thus spoiling our chances of a victory?

Well, there's an interesting thread on 'ology which is based on a statistic from the Herald Sun which gives Melbourne a slight edge in both age and games played but such statistics can be damn lies. They still don't take into account the make up of the respective teams, the quality of the players or the quality of the games in their legs. How many Demons have played in big finals recently? 

Three of our four newcomers are young kids while none of Hawthorn's newbies are spring chickens. Gibson and Hooper are recycled players with lots of previous AFL experience while Peterson and Kayler-Thomson are into their 20s and have been around the traps for a while. 

The worry clearly remains that we'll be overrun when those chips are down as we often have been in our recent past but if that's our only worry for the day then I would (reluctantly) be prepared to cop it because it's somehting we can easily overcome in the medium term. 

Even then there's no guarantee that this Hawthorn side has what it takes to destroy an opposition. I'm hoping we grab our chances and cause what most in the football world would call an "upset". 

Despite pronouncements to the effect that it's a long road and we must be patient, all of which is true, such a result would really make a difference to the club in terms how the players perceive of themselves and how we, as supporters, perceive of our club which gets me back to the importance to our development of establishing self-belief.

You might be right but fair dinkum WJ, just go to the football and enjoy it!

[Whispering_Jack 29,623]

You might be right but fair dinkum WJ, just go to the football and enjoy it!

If I write at length about a subject there's a good chance that I enjoy it.

BTW did you enjoy what you saw in the first quarter of last year's Queens Birthday game?

[DirtyDees DDC 176]

There's no doubt in my mind that we can win today but we have to show a lot more than we have over the NAB/practice match series. 

I think that the selected team for today's game is of better quality and better prepared than the 26 man squads we put out on the ground during the pre season games.

On paper we have a fairly good side. We dont have a top gun key forward, but look at Geelong. 2 fumbling lugs as KPFs, and they are still the best team in the comp.

Unfortunately our form has been poor and key players such as Davey and Bate have had interrupted pre-seasons. Interesting to read Clarkson say that the dorks may use Roughhead as a back-up ruckman. Good news if it takes him away from the forward line.

Our defence must hold them to a score < 100pts. We have picked a team that probably includes our defensive line-up for the next 5 years, so i want to see good improvement this year. Frawley at CHB; Warnock and Rivers to take the other talls; Macdonald, Strauss and Bennell to kick and carry the ball, and Grimes to alternate b/w defence and midfield. I also see Scully spending a lot of time linking up with the defence.

If Scully can build himself up to the same size as Joel Selwood (they are both 182cms), i predict he will be a slightly better player. He will be a little fitter, and may have the fastest hands in the west. He's not a bad kick but he just needs to tighten up that left hand when he releases the ball. He tends to drop the ball and throw the hand away to the left, instead of controlling the ball onto the foot like luke hodge.

We've got 3 kids playing their first game. let's not be too hard on them. 'SGO DEES' !!!

[flog 20]

If I write at length about a subject there's a good chance that I enjoy it.

BTW did you enjoy what you saw in the first quarter of last year's Queens Birthday game?

No, but what relevance does that have on todays game?

[heartbeatstrue 57]

There's no doubt in my mind that we can win today but we have to show a lot more than we have over the NAB/practice match series.

I think that the selected team for today's game is of better quality and better prepared than the 26 man squads we put out on the ground during the pre season games - and in saying that, I'm taking into account our well documented injury problems. Meanwhile, the Hawks have also been hit hard by injuries and, according to yesterday's Herald Sun, they're worse off on the injury front than we are.

Melbourne does have to face a number of barriers to victory, one of which is the need to establish some self-belief after three years of consistently substandard, poor performance.

Good post W-J, you're definitely going to enjoy today. Looking through that Dawks side in the paper this morning, half of them I don't know. We've got a better chance today than most 'experts' incl. Garry Lyon imagine. Far better with Franklin, Rioli, Burgoyne, Taylor etc missing.

The thing about brand new young players like Scully, Trengove & Strauss, they've not had time or experiences to realise their own mortality just yet. Players in that frame of mind can do amazing things, especially first game at the 'G in front of real passionate fans and against an undermanned Dawks.

It's just going to be good barracking seriously for a win today! You enjoy...

[jayceebee31 759]

First week of Footy, Saturday at the G, solid opponent, does it get any better than that?

Of course we can bloody well win. We're in it to win it now. They have some big outs and our team looks pretty solid. Cam Bruce, Mark Jamar, Aaron Davey and Nathan Jones need to stand up and lead this team from the front

Hope you had the house on them @5.40 as the odds have come down to 5 to 1 -some of my money..membership at 26800- no good hey?

[... 11]

I'm looking forward to going to a football game that I want us to win. It's been a while.

Today is the first day that we'll see where the side is truly at, and what needs to be worked on.

Go Dees.

[Roost It 1,434]

Hope you had the house on them @5.40 as the odds have come down to 5 to 1 -some of my money..membership at 26800- no good hey?

I don't bet, never have. Membership of 26,800 is a great start after 3 dismal seasons. Looks like we'll comfortably get to 32,000

[DeeVoted 583]

Hawthorn,regardless of some of their 'gun' players out.

I think they still have enough talent to have us covered.

We really need to get off start,whether that be holding them out for the 1st 20 mins,and not getting away.

Or us making the most of our chances up forward.

I'll be at the 'G' hoping for an upset,and it's all about giving our guys more experience.

[Jaded No More 68,823]

We are a chance if we find some avenues to goal.

If Miller, Ricky, Bate and Greeny can kick 2-3 goals each, we might win, but as has been the story for the last number of years, if we can't even scrape together 10 goals we are no chance.