Predictions

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

I am of the feeling we will win 2 more games this season but struggle to win 5 again next season. Finals are not likely before 2013 and we may need more priority picks if we are to push for a top 4 finish anytime soon.

Priority Picks still exist after 2009.

[Gorgoroth 13,184]

7 wins next year, finals the year after, 2013 a flag!

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

I am not saying our young team does not have potential. It does. I am just saying that we have very few senior players to hold up our team, its boys v men and young tallent takes time to develop.

A move up the ladder starting in 2010 may still be too early. We may end up with another year of pain and another priority pick. If this happens we have no excuses in years ahead, also Bailey could be in serious trouble. 3 seasons with less that 12 wins combined is a tough spot to be able to negotiate a contract extention.

[Dreamin' Demon 10]

also Bailey could be in serious trouble. 3 seasons with less that 12 wins

They will be looking for some improvement next year, not the inconsistent games we're having this year. If we are competitive EVERY QUARTER - I think Bails will be OK

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Aaaah Geez. I read this wrong.

In the title (and the field under the title) it says "how many wins for 2009?"

Then in the actual poll it asks how many in 2010.

I would have put 3 for the first question and 7 for the next one.

As for finals, I don't think anyone would crack the sads at MFC as a club if we didn't make it to the top 8 next year. As long as we win 7+ games. Hopefully more like 9 to give the fans something to crow about.

The last 2 games have been no fun to watch, but I believe they are an abberration.

[True Believer 1]

7+ wins /2010.................

finals 2011.....................

GO DEES

[Grand New Flag 3,227]

Aaaah Geez. I read this wrong.

In the title (and the field under the title) it says "how many wins for 2009?"

Then in the actual poll it asks how many in 2010.

I would have put 3 for the first question and 7 for the next one.

Sorry Dappa, the poll was meant to be for both 2009 and 2010 plus next finals, however, for what ever reason the forum would only take two polls.

[Dappa Dan 2,188]

Here's one more theory I've been playing with.

Last year, we were beyond woeful, but even within that there were form fluctuations. Enough that if we were at our best and the opposition were at their worst we could pull off almost impossible wins, like the Freo and Brisbane ones.

In my mind, it seems to me like we can play winning quarters, its just a matter of how many per year we put together, and how many we put together in sequence:

In 2008:

At our worst, we would play 0 good quarters in a match. Lose by 80+ points. This happened a handful of times to a variety of opponents, both good (Geelong) and bad (Richmond).

Our middle-of-the-road performances we would win 1 quarter and end up with 45-70 point losses. Which I think would have happened half a dozen times. In these matches we would be roundly praised for showing something for a quarter.

At our best we were able to go with our opposition for 2 quarters. This was our ABSOLUTE best. In the case of the Freo game, we won narrowly. Ditto for the Brisbane game.

This model was enough to get us 3 wins, 2 of which were HUGELY lucky.

In 2009 we seem to have added 1 good quarter to each of these examples.

At our worst, we play one good quarter, get done by 45-70 and people bag us as expected.

Our middle of the road performances yield 1.5 - 2 quarters of good footy, which in certain circumstances is good enough to get you wins. This year however, with no forwards, we have played some good footy without scoring... In these instances we lose by 10-30 points. Fans and media roundly praise us for having the gumption to go with more fancied opponents. Which is all 15 other clubs.

At our best we outplay or at least break even with our opposition for 2-3 quarters, but cant finish well enough to make a dent score-wise. In the dons game if you take out the 3rd quarter we only lost by a goal. I think you could mount a case that the Dons went to sleep after 3 quarter time because they were thinking about next weekend, so that makes 2 ok quarters we played.

So if you go by this model, it's not ridiculous to expect the team to add another good quarter of footy per game next season. This wouldn't be impossible to do given that A LOT will be learned by many players this year, and many good names will be coming back, two of the biggest being Garland and Wonna.

In our worst performances we'll play 2 good quarters, and get done through lack of maturity and accuracy, as well as forward options. In our middle of the road performances, expect 2-3 better quarters, maybe we'll see a lot of "Essendon" like games where we get done because of going to sleep for 30 minutes. But also expect, on one sunny MCG Saturday afternoon, that we might for the first time, switch it on against ANY opponent, and play 4 quarters. If we did this against a Carlton, Geelong or Hawks outfit, or even a Doggies outfit it will bring MFC to the attention of the competition and will likely put us in contention again to be at least spoken about as a real club that has real threat of causing upsets.

This is all I expect next season. Not the world, just a bit of respect. 2011 is when we apply the blowtorch.

[beelzebub 23,390]

Dappa..there is a certain logic that suggests improvement by degrees and your model would follow that. In many ways there isnt a great deal between a great pass and a near miss etc. You can extrapolate out. With incremental advances in many players some passages of play that nearly came off beofre will start to come off. With this much confidence and roll on effects. This is not to suggest we dont have a long way to go but I could see some measure of promise in your view.

[H_T 3,049]

Here's one more theory I've been playing with.

Last year, we were beyond woeful, but even within that there were form fluctuations. Enough that if we were at our best and the opposition were at their worst we could pull off almost impossible wins, like the Freo and Brisbane ones.

In my mind, it seems to me like we can play winning quarters, its just a matter of how many per year we put together, and how many we put together in sequence:

In 2008:

At our worst, we would play 0 good quarters in a match. Lose by 80+ points. This happened a handful of times to a variety of opponents, both good (Geelong) and bad (Richmond).

Our middle-of-the-road performances we would win 1 quarter and end up with 45-70 point losses. Which I think would have happened half a dozen times. In these matches we would be roundly praised for showing something for a quarter.

At our best we were able to go with our opposition for 2 quarters. This was our ABSOLUTE best. In the case of the Freo game, we won narrowly. Ditto for the Brisbane game.

This model was enough to get us 3 wins, 2 of which were HUGELY lucky.

In 2009 we seem to have added 1 good quarter to each of these examples.

At our worst, we play one good quarter, get done by 45-70 and people bag us as expected.

Our middle of the road performances yield 1.5 - 2 quarters of good footy, which in certain circumstances is good enough to get you wins. This year however, with no forwards, we have played some good footy without scoring... In these instances we lose by 10-30 points. Fans and media roundly praise us for having the gumption to go with more fancied opponents. Which is all 15 other clubs.

At our best we outplay or at least break even with our opposition for 2-3 quarters, but cant finish well enough to make a dent score-wise. In the dons game if you take out the 3rd quarter we only lost by a goal. I think you could mount a case that the Dons went to sleep after 3 quarter time because they were thinking about next weekend, so that makes 2 ok quarters we played.

So if you go by this model, it's not ridiculous to expect the team to add another good quarter of footy per game next season. This wouldn't be impossible to do given that A LOT will be learned by many players this year, and many good names will be coming back, two of the biggest being Garland and Wonna.

In our worst performances we'll play 2 good quarters, and get done through lack of maturity and accuracy, as well as forward options. In our middle of the road performances, expect 2-3 better quarters, maybe we'll see a lot of "Essendon" like games where we get done because of going to sleep for 30 minutes. But also expect, on one sunny MCG Saturday afternoon, that we might for the first time, switch it on against ANY opponent, and play 4 quarters. If we did this against a Carlton, Geelong or Hawks outfit, or even a Doggies outfit it will bring MFC to the attention of the competition and will likely put us in contention again to be at least spoken about as a real club that has real threat of causing upsets.

This is all I expect next season. Not the world, just a bit of respect. 2011 is when we apply the blowtorch.

Good post Dappa.

There is one word, which as history shows, can influence results for the Melbournefc. We've seen it happen before. That word is 'Momentum'. Granted our list contains some holes and plenty of youth when in comparison. But when our club gets on a roll, the fans start flocking, confidence builds and before you know it we've chalked up 5-6 in a row.

[Carn dees 108]

7 wins next year, finals the year after, 2013 a flag!

That would be perfect!

[Pipefitter 2,213]

I think we will only win one more game this season. Does that mean we have gone backwards? Perhaps not, we are just well behind how quick other teams develop. I think 6 would be the absolute tops we will win next year. I see another clean out this season of older players which just means more short term pain.

[Sir Why You Little 37,307]

Good post Dappa.

There is one word, which as history shows, can influence results for the Melbournefc. We've seen it happen before. That word is 'Momentum'. Granted our list contains some holes and plenty of youth when in comparison. But when our club gets on a roll, the fans start flocking, confidence builds and before you know it we've chalked up 5-6 in a row.

Wow to win 5 in a row, i have trully forgotten what that is like!! What happened to this place under Gardiner & co. I am not blaming individuals but one day it all must come out.

Getting rid of Darren Jolly at age 21 was the worst decision i can remember Followed by the Scott Thompson Debacle. Sure he wanted to go home, But this club should have stood firm. I honestly hope our internal attitude has changed now, otherwise it will be a slow death.

Watching Jolly's Game on saturday night got me really mad.

[Einstein 1]

I think we'll have to win 6 or 7 next season. If not, Bailey is in trouble.

A 3 win season and he is certainly finished.

If I look back at the first half of this season, there's probably 2 or 3 games we came close to winning, the Bulldogs game, the Eagles game, maybe the Crows game. I'd like to think that given another 12 months of development, these are the sorts of games we might actually go on to win in 2010. So this time next year, we might hvae 3 or 4 wins on the board which would put us on schedule to win 6 or 7. I think this is realistic and should be the expectation.

[Doggo 32]

6+ wins in 2010, and hopefully finals in 2011 is what I'm hoping we should be aiming at.

[beelzebub 23,390]

I would tend to hope for a distinct improvement... 6-7 wins with definite grunt or I will be asking the MFC to please expalin the coaches position. Having said that I think we might just do something next year...albeit with an injection of some ready to go talent

[praha 11,253]

3 wins next year, 2013 finals, flag in 2014.

[Guest Rojik of the Arctic]

I would hope that with a good pre-season into the kids, so that they are a bit fitter, faster and stronger, we can play more quarters like we did in the first half of the year. 7-8 wins would be nice.

[titan_uranus 25,174]

8-10 wins next year.

10-12 in 2011 (possible finals)

12+ in 2012 (and finals)

2013-2015 is a chance for a premiership.

[Adelaide Demon 0]

If we did this against a Carlton, Geelong or Hawks outfit, or even a Doggies outfit it will bring MFC to the attention of the competition and will likely put us in contention again to be at least spoken about as a real club that has real threat of causing upsets.

This is all I expect next season. Not the world, just a bit of respect. 2011 is when we apply the blowtorch.

Couldn't have said it any better Dappa Dan. This is what I want more than anything - for the unspoken pity many neutrals have for us, for the mockery of rival fans, and for us having to defend ourselves for supporting this club - to stop. And not to stop because it's not nice, but to stop because we have done enough to make it stop, earnt the respect of others and asserted ourselves in the competition.

[Real Demon 232]

I've gotta say, I'm not as bullish as some.

The young list we are assembling, with the addition of a few more young guns this year, will provide a terrific platform to build on, and see future success.

But the problem is our midfield. We are a number of years away from having our young midfield develop into one that can challenge for finals football, so I'm tipping we won't see finals until 2014.

A few more years of pain to come unfortunately!

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,251]

A bit off topic but a comparison between Clarkson and Bailey in their first 2 years shows that Clarkson is way on top.

Clarkson won 15 games in his first 2 years. Bailey has recorded 4 so far.

[Pipefitter 2,213]

A bit off topic but a comparison between Clarkson and Bailey in their first 2 years shows that Clarkson is way on top.

Clarkson won 15 games in his first 2 years. Bailey has recorded 4 so far.

Yep clarko showed a heap more improvement in the second year with finals in the 3rd. And they cut their list a lot deeper than us. It was everything must go when clarko got in. I cant remember a coach like bailey who has had such a bad record and kept his job. Our rate of development is snail rate.

[Weedster 174]

A bit off topic but a comparison between Clarkson and Bailey in their first 2 years shows that Clarkson is way on top.

Clarkson won 15 games in his first 2 years. Bailey has recorded 4 so far.

This says plenty

[e25 5]

This says plenty

If it suits your purposes for axe grinding.

Try looking at West Coast's record over the last couple of years compared to ours.

They were both developed to be contenders for the GF at around the same time. They even had a younger and better list, yet their record is much the same as ours.

Hawthorn were at a different stage of their list development when they decided to pare back and rebuild.

They had better younger strong leaders to keep (Vandenberg, Crawford), whilst also having valuable middle aged players to trade (Thompson, Hay, Everitt).

We had Yze & White. Bizzel, Brown & Godfey. Bruce & Green.

I'm not going to talk about Bruce and regardless of Green's displays of courage & leading by example, far too many people find it convenient to ignore his lack of direction to the younger players.

Leadership is more than just doing the right things and hoping people will follow.

Once again, with feeling -- it is far too early into Bailey's tenure for anyone to judge his ability.