Leaderboard

Good on you for finding some quotes. I hope there would be some very positive assessment of the player we're likely to take at 3. But i don't see anyone saying "Yet for some reason it’s an iron clad lock that Jackson will dominate the game." I've followed Pennant St, Mach, Binman and Dr.Evil over the years and they're all good posters who would recognise that every draftee has risks and no-one is "iron clad locks to dominate". They're giving reasons why Jackson might be a risk worth taking.

The only thing I’m sure of is that if we use pick 28, it will be on some random that Fox Footy don’t even have a profile picture for and Shifter Sheehan will pretend he knows him.

I’ve only seen the highlights package, so I might be doing the player a great disservice, but I’m not sure there is a lot of upside potential in Green. He is a bull at the under 18 level, as his physical development is more advanced than the majority of opponents, which is his big advantage now. But at afl level, there are many more bigger and stronger players than him, and without the ability to explode from packs, which he lacks, I just think his upside will be limited. Whereas a player like Jackson, while maybe a work in progress, appears to have the attributes that give him a much higher ceiling than Green. For this reason I think we will go with Jackson.

At least make the bid, and if they match then take the alternative. Personally I want Green. Another player similar to Oliver, Yes Thanx.

It's a hard one, and i am a bit torn. I like Pickett, i really do, and he's exactly what we need. He fits the Goodwin style of play with his hard and aggressive approach to the contest. His not a Jeff Garlett type but definitely more your Byron Pickett/Cyril Rioli type. I am torn because at pick 10, you have the likes of Ash, Kemp, Robertson and even Young who are probably more talented and still be available around that mark. In saying that if the club decides with Pickett at 10 then i can see why they would go with this approach. He fits a significant need for us and i can see him playing senior footy early in his career. Having the likes of May, Jetta and Bennell to a degree play a leadership role for Pickett will only do him wonders.

Post 340 : Pennant St Dee “He’s better than Natanui below his knees, more of a footy brain and better by hand and foot. He doesn’t have Natanuis leap or explosiveness but I see a player with more mobility who covers more ground and can actually take contested marks on regular occasions.” Add to that his ability to tap the ball to advantage and his blind turns and breaking away from a stoppage before throwing the ball onto his boot blindly. Please remember only he will have the same time at AFL level as he does in under 18’s, none of the other potential draftee’s will. Post 356 : Mach5 “I don't see him as direct competition for Weideman (who is a 2nd forward) but I think Jackson would actually play as the number 1 key forward if deployed in the forward line. He has the size and presence to be the main target, create-a-contest type like a Tom Lynch, Tex, Walker, Travis Cloke, etc. I think this is part of the problem with T-Mac too, as he's more of a very good 3rd forward roaming far and wide, using his mobility to advantage. If we're expecting him to be number 1 KPF we're in trouble”. This was followed by Post 357 : DeeSpencer “Don't agree with that. Jackson has no goal kicking pedigree. His best use up forward would be creating contests at times but otherwise just staying out of the way by occupying a man. That's how West Coast, Brisbane etc other successful teams with 2 rucks play. On the other hand Tom McDonald put up 1.5 seasons of high quality key forward play. He had 2 excellent finals both with goal kicking and up the ground play and paired well with Weideman“ DeeSpencer’s comments make sense to me but before long Mach5 returns serve. Post 361 : Mach5 ”I don't think goal kicking has anything to do with it. It's about presenting as the number 1 target who continually makes a contest, competes to prevent opposition intercept marks and brings your crumbers into the game. It's not always about pure marks and goals”. Good to know that your no.1 forward isn’t required to kick goals, this is where people remind everybody that Collingwood were 90 seconds away from winning the GF with Cox. Post 383 : Binman “Buddy's talent was obvious but there were question marks. So much so they took roughly first. But do that draft now and everyone would take buddy in a heartbeat. Is jackson our buddy?”. I would of thought there are still some question marks hanging of over Jackson’s head, ability to take a pack mark and his kicking both in general play and set shots on goal. Will he be able to dominate at AFL like he can at under 18’s. Post 435 : Dr Evil “In terms of pure talent Jackson is the most talented player in this draft with the highest ceiling. I think it's a very easy choice at pick 3. there are Hayden youngs every year“. In previous years the most talented player generally comes in and has an impact straight away. So in short, he’s already got Natanui covered in a lot areas of his game, he can come in and play as our no.1 fwd, could potentially be our Buddy because his talent is so obvious that he is clearly the most talented player in this years draft. If he’s not going to dominate then I don’t know who will.

Not only should we bid but we should bid and pray GWS dont match. Green looks every bit as good as Oliver looked at that age. Jackson looks too raw to take a risk on at pick 3. It could work out but its a risk we dont need to take. We should at the very least bid on Green.

Yeah, nah. A fair chunk of the conversation was about the concept of a number 1 target as a KPF. Part of the role is marks and goals, but a large part of their role is simply continuing to present, create an option, and at least halve a contest, bringing teammates into the game. Maybe a difficult concept for some? It’s not set in stone that Jackson will fill this role with aplomb, but I think he will be able to. At least kudos to you for not being afraid to have an opinion, or a different one.

. . .

I will put what little money I have, and although I know the recruiters are excited by the prospect of Pickett, there is no chance we are taking him at 10. I have been told Jackson’s 3, they believe Stephens at 10 (or someone who slides) and possibly Pickett at 28.

Gotta watch those parked cars, they're deceptively still.

I would prefer Green to Jackson. Green could make a difference to our midfield rotations in his 1st year

He's not going to last till 28.

Me like alcohols too. *hic

I'm not sure that you even remotely read my post. It's not that rucks and smalls dud out with high picks - it's that they often dud out, and so using a high pick is a bigger risk. The very simple gist is - success factors in football are mostly not random. If rucks generally take longer to develop and struggle to make it, it's probably not a random coincidence. If top prospects from the SANFL consistently struggle to shine in the AFL, there may be something behind it. If draftees who receive a high proportion of their ball on the outside tend not to make it, then it's worth considering. If heads or tails has come up five times in a row, then this is random.

I have to keep reminding myself in these threads, the draft hasn’t happened yet and we haven’t actually selected anyone.. If you’re getting worked up about something that hasn’t even happened yet, with limited knowledge compared to the recruiters then you seriously need to book a decent holiday or hit some 420.

So you rationalise why they're doing it - if they do ? Btw, I don't see a high pressure small forward as "icing". They're crucial in the modern game. Surprised you don't see that. Fwiw, I'd prefer best available at pick 10, not Pickett. But I can understand if they pull the trigger.

The suggestion that rucks and small forwards get picked up later is due to historically less chance of success. That's not a gambler's fallacy. I'll let Wikipedia explain: A gambler's fallacy 'is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random, this belief is false.' Flipping a coin is a closed system - the result of the toss being the outcome. You're trying to argue away what we call science - assessing consistent outcomes, hypothesising the cause, and testing the hypothesis. Due to the nature of AFL, it's very difficult to test any hypothesis, and our science hasn't progressed far. There are also other randomised factors involved, such as certain contact injuries. But you don't throw away the data on outcomes and conclude that they're random because you can't fully discover the cause - that's called religion. I can assure you that the prevalence of rucks or small forwards at high picks having dudded in the past will be a consideration - it's just a matter of how much weight we give to it.

Harley’s in town. Currently sitting across from him in the corporate boxes at the basketball. He’s sitting in between May and Jetta. Waters all round for those interested.

Jeremy Sharp would be a good get at 28.

This is a first time post. I visited from Adelaide today. I don’t read Demonland a lot other than at this time of the season, and really appreciate those who do training reports. But knowing people involved in the club, this is not the place to spend too much time in season! I thought I would add my bit to preseason, although it’s 3 hours later so I have probably already forgotten half of it and Kev above covered some of it. I arrived at 9.15 and the players were already warming up. I stayed till the very end, which was just after 1pm with the last 3 off the track being Steven May, Jack Viney, and Marty Hore. They finished with goal to goal repeat sprints, which at the end of a 4 hour session was impressive. Even more impressive is May was side by side with Viney doing 22-25 second 170m sprints after 4 hours of training. It was about 80% ball work and 20% running at training. They started in 2 groups at each end doing non contact match sim inside the 50 arcs. The emphasis was on kicking skills. Every turnover was called out loud and clear by the coaching staff, even if was a poor that bounced. While this was going on AVB, Petty, and Bradke were doing repeat 200-300m sprints around the outside. AVB was setting the pace and looked in great nick. When he was leaving training he was saying that if 2019 was different he would have played in the back half of the year like 2018, and he feels he is 100%. From what I can tell he is doing lots of running but perhaps they don’t want to risk a Spargo like step on foot incident yet. After the skills match sim it changed to full oval match sim with the non contact players standing out. Lever, Weideman, Jetta etc we’re not standing around, but doing a lot of explosive agility type work in the unused forward pocket. The match sim was interesting. It would start with a congested activity somewhere upfield with an emphasis on ground balls. The players would repeatable roll the ball into a scrimmage, and then try and pick up and get a clearance and when they did just roll the ball back in. It kept going until the coaches blew a whistle which signalled it was real, and from a clearance they’d try and get it inside 50 to a lead. It was pretty willing, evidenced by Tmac (I think) leading out at full tilt with Hore drifting back and KK trying to spoil. Hore and KK were both flattened. Luckily no major harm although KK left training to get his elbow seen to. After the full oval match sim they broke up into various groups doing different activities. Mainly seemed to focus on skills, although some players would be cycled through activities that looked a bit like trying to work on explosiveness. For example, 3 players would be on their stomachs, and the coach would roll a ball near 1 and call out. 2 would jump up, the closest to get the ground ball and the second to tackle. Seemed to be working on recovery, getting to feet, evading or tackling etc. Another group were totally focussed on kicking to the wing. Others were doing 150m sprints, and other doing stoppages again with ground balls. For the ground ball stoppages, the coaches were continuously calling out for longer handballs to the outside. At one stage, Stafford was working on goal kicking. Hunt and Weideman did a lot of work. Then they setup a spot 40m out and had a camera directly in front and one to the side. Stafford was managing, and had Petracca, ANB, Oliver, Melksham, and Fritsch filmed for about 10 kicks each. No one else. Petracca still has a lot of work to do and I’m sure his routine will be sorted. Was still walking up to kick. The rest looked pretty good, but all seemed to be told to get some forward momentum, or at least compared to Petracca seemed to be accelerating in to kick with pretty good results. Especially Melksham who didn’t seem to miss. Some of the highlights for me overall were Petracca. He is in ripping nick, and ran in a group with Brayshaw and a few others in the repeat sprints. He is in better running nick than ever, was right up the front, and looked to handle it better than Brayshaw. Another highlight was May. It looked like he had to do extra’s, and he did not lag behind in any of the sprints. His group included Max and he was side by side with him the entire way. He also looks in great nick. In one drill, there was a handball chain that ended with a player at 40m running toward goal. May drilled everything. The other was TMac. He has his running legs, and was continuously getting in good positions and marking in the full oval match sim. Viney is doing all the running and more. His foot is not a problem touch wood, and he is loving the program Burgess has given him. Already he feels fitter than ever, and he did the extras. Oscar Mac looks in great nick and to have bulked up a lot. In the inside 50 skills match sim his kicking is really good. I didn’t see him miss a kick, which I probably couldn’t say about most of the squad. Overall, and I don’t have much to compare against as I didn’t see training last year, the squad looks in excellent nick. I did talk to a few of the veteran supporters to ask how it compares to prior years. They all seemed to think it’s the fittest they have seen them.

What you think we'll do and if you don't like that, add what you would do. Jackson, D.Stephens, Pickett

I can now see the argument for naming my future children "Best Available". Guaranteed AFL career.

Yeah, we get that. The object of this game though, is to pick who you'll think they'll take. Plenty of other threads for you expel your philosophy to the masses.

his awareness and thinking ahead of where the ball is gonna drop is really good in this footage.. we can surely work on his natural gifts to get him more involved in games. pickett def seems to have traits that weightman/serong can only dream of.

List needs: 1. Small forward if we don’t go one at 10 2. Key defender - especially if we see Petty as a forward 3. Lock down defender - Hibberd/Jetta replacement 4. Speed and classy kicking runner Forwards: Elijah Taylor / Jack Mahoney Tall defender: Sam De Koning Backline grunt: Will Gould / Trent Rivers Classy run: Hugo Ralph-Smith / Jeremy Sharp / Rivers / Trent Bianco / Will Day Trent Rivers would be my dream pick up as he does just about everything at a high level as a defender. Kick, run it out, intercept, contest in the air and on the ground. But I’m sure he’ll go top 20.

I only think we should bid on Green if we think he’s best available, the idea of bidding on him to screw the Giants is foolish. But at same time I think this will be the biggest pick of the night and will have a knock on effect on several teams weather GWS match or not. Ripple effect may still be felt at 10 and might decide weather we trade that pick or not. Does anybody know if Giants would be allowed to split with another team and hold on to one pick even though they would have a point deficit ?Say we bid on Green, they split with say Port for 12&18 then use 12 on Green and 18 on another player. If we decide not to pick Green and pick Jackson things might play out a bit more predictable.

We will bid on Green because he is a top 3 player in the draft.

I'm hoping Prodee we hold the pick till draft night, to see who slides, there's always one. I'm certainly not in favour of Pickett at 10. I see picks possibly going 1. Rowell Suns 2. Anderson Suns 3. Jackson Dees 4. Young/Ash GWS 5. Green GWS matching Sydney's bid 6. Flanders Swans 7. Mcasey/Ash/Young Crows 8. Robertson Freo 9. Stephens/Ash/Young Freo 10. Henry Freo matchin Blues bid 11. Kemp/Serong Blues 12. Who do we take from the possible slider if it's Serong Ash or Young there's no question we take them. Stephens whilst outside fills another need as a Gaff type. Kemp I like and I'd take him at this pick but if we're foucussed on others I think the Cats will look at jumping ahead of the Hawks and be open to a live trade, which could be worth looking at. I've seen a fair bit of Elijah Taylor and really rate him, with plenty if upside. I think he, Jeremy Sharp or Trent Rivers could be available at 28. With Sharp the least likely I've seen a fair bit of them all and whilst they are all WA boys, it's where I live so see these boys the most and think they can fill the half back flank or small forward we need and I'd be inclined to target whichever one (position) we don't take at pick 10

Told by a source who I trust. Was told about Jackson before it came out in the press. The club, from what I can understand, are leaning to Jackson, but are not 100%. They are also undecided on who they would prefer from that next bunch of players, and seems as though they are happy to gain any number of them, thus the pick swaps, but they seem to think that stephens will be the one available then for whatever reason. They do want a small forward and rate both weightman and Pickett highly, but I can’t see them taking Pickett at 10, possibly Weightman.

Stephens, Kemp, Young, Ash and Robertson are players I would happily take at 10 ahead of Weightman.

Can already see Marty Hore's plan to get a regular game, he was responsible for taking Spargo out as well

It is the 9 to 12 schedule. A beautiful morning to train in. Marty, one of the support staff says they are different team this season. I agree with him, seems a change in the vibe out there. Hoping it can translate out on the field when it counts. In rehab was Aaron VandenBerg, Austin Bradtke and Harrison Petty. Their work load seems to have increased, harder running and ball work. Walking laps was Oskar Baker, Adam Tomlinson and Mitch Hannan. The main group had about 33 (?) players in it. Warm-ups were again inventive and different from the previous morning. They split into two groups and there were two stations. One being a congested game with no contact and fast ball movement. The other was using just over half the field with minimal pressure from four coaches and the players creating switches and corridors to move the ball into the forwards who would finish with set shots. They swapped stations. The players on light duties went over to the rehab area to finish off while the others competed in simulations. Light duties included Neville Jetta, Jake Lever, Kade Chandler, Sam Weideman and Joel Smith (seems to be on his own program). Bayley Fritsch, Tom McDonald, Ed Langdon, Steven May, Christian Salem, Corey Wagner, and Christian Petracca were the ones who stood out to me in simulations. Marty Hore and Kade Kolodjashnij had a collision when both defending a high ball. Looked more like both being winded, Kade left training. I hope as a precaution, he was wearing the 'red cap'. Charlie Spargo was the only one missing today. Steven May and Clayton Oliver trained well. Clayton with a bit of strapping on his left shoulder and at one time had the 'red cap' on. The training kind of petered out after they had a good chat in the middle. A group doing tackling, one on one, or two contests and a kind of leap frog activity. A group having their set shots at goal filmed in preparation for analysis. Some doing 150-meter sprints. A good first week.

Jellyfish have survived for over 600 million years without a brain. There's hope for you yet, Junior.

Can't see it unless Sydney or Adelaide spring a couple of surprises

You mean like taking Jesse Hogan at pick 2 who couldn’t play for a year and no that was before his back surgery injury.

Access seems to work through their Supercoach Facebook page (as is often the case?): https://www.facebook.com/supercoach/posts/-an-injury-free-jack-viney-is-relishing-the-pre-season-grind-under-fitness-boss-/10156563300266440/

Good to see we've graduated from training the house down, to straight up burning them down.

After further thought... Melbourne don't consider themselves a 17th ranked team, in fact, they think they can win the flag in 2020 (courtesy of a recent lunch Goodwin attended with some supporters). So clearly, rightly or wrongly, they see the list differently to most footy pundits. With this framework in mind, if they see a player like Pickett as the missing ingredient in the forward half with his flair and pressure skills they have a dilemma. They'd recognise that he's probably not worthy of a pick 10 (or 11-12) selection, but they also know through the jungle drums he won't be available at their next selection (28). Do they take Stephens, Young/Ash or Serong, whose resumes read better ? Or do they take the player who's more important to the overall makeup of the team, i.e. Pickett ? They've got guys like Salem, Hibberd, Hore, and now Harmes earmarked for defence, so while Young and Ash would be great there's not as much of a need, and with the addition of Langdon and Tomlinson (hopefully vandenBerg) they can cope without Stephens. They'd love them all, but there's just one pick. You can't use a pick you don't have, so I get why you'd use the only pick you do have. And to add... I think most clubs would have taken note as to how much positive impact Flyin Ryan and Willie Rioli had on West Coast's last couple of years.

Yes I have. That is my second mix up today. I guess I shouldn’t be drinking so much on the cruise I am on.

Getting the player we want more is the most important thing. GWS are going to be a good side with or without Green. In fact letting them get Green - who is unlikely to make them better in the next 2 years - and not having any future draft picks as well as a packed salary cap could work in our favour if we're proactive in grabbing one of their other young mids like a Caldwell/O'Halloran in next years trade period. The footy gods might smile back on us.

Hopefully they end up premiership mates.

I think you can’t lose with those 2. If we’re genuinely happy to get Green, which I think we should be, we bid. And we settle for Jackson if GWS matches. That way, we get 1 of the 2 players we want and we stop GWS from getting a second bite at the cherry.

Reiwoldt wasn't in the Judd/Ball draft.

I'm not sure whether we'll pick him or not. Taylor does rate him highly, he said so in the Road to the Draft interview. If we think he'll be the best long term prospect at our pick then we'll take him and the fact that he won't play next year is irrelevant.

not thilled with this constant trying to split the picks and take us further down the pecking order. we only have a very limited number of slots available. we should be taking the best players we can. Quality not quantity.

I was talking to Brian an old footy type support staffer for MFC. He reckons they don't go hard enough at training. A real old schooler. I interpreted this to mean, without the high pressure that is reserved for games then how do you know how you will handle it. Those who perform under pressure are the gems. He also said that they don't play with enough instincts and instincts come from pressure situations. Can see both points of view, Brian's and DeeSpencer's (wrapping in cotton wool in early preseason). Last year we did a lot of turnovers when the pressure was on us. Plus we had lots of injuries. I think I am more old school. Let them go at it. Harden them up. From my experience injuries come from unexpected or unseen hits. If they expect the hits they will see them coming and protect themselves accordingly. High pressure training can only be a benefit for the real game. Like one drill today, without any pressure. It looked amazing, very clean ball movement and exact working to structure. Come the pressure and that completely changes. Running injuries, hammy's, calf, foot stuff is not usually from impacts but poor preparation. Concussion on the other hand? A big question mark in our game.