2 hours ago, MaccaR said:

Honestly, the pre-season predictions are generally a massive waste of time. The best anyone can do is roughly predict clubs will finish approx the same place they did the previous year plus or minus 1 or 2 ladder positions up or down.

Almost no one ever predicts the big falls or climbs. I think most MFC supporters rightly see this year as a reset with low expectations, I will wait to assess our current coach and list at the end of the season.

Of interest, here is the AFL 2021 expert ladder predictions:

afl.com.au

Crystal Ball: Our predictions for the 2021 AFL season are in

Premiership, Brownlow, recruit of the year. We make the call

Agree (pre-season predictions are generally of little value), and that's particularly true of the dee's 2026 season.

And i'd argue that it's even more difficult these days to predict how teams will go because the collective fitness of a team has become one of the most significant determinants of success - i'd argue only behind injury and the strength of the list in significance.

It of course all but impossible to gauge a team's collective fitness during the preseason, particularly of teams you don't support and to a lesser extent in the first third of the season (the phase where teams are still getting the full benefit of the preseason).

The analogy i think of is baking a cake - all the ingredients are mixed up; it goes into the oven and looks great as it cooks and comes out looking delicious. But you don't know how it tastes until you try a piece.

That said, I'm pretty confident the Lions will once again be a premiership contender as their list is so strong, they list is settled and they clearly have one of, if not the best, high performance programs in the AFL that has mastered the art of being in optimal condition on Grand Final day (look at vision of their players in the last 2 grand finals - they all look incredibly cut, and clearly more so than even a few weeks prior. And they have run over both their opponents, the Swans and the Cats and clearly look fitter and stronger).

As for Melbourne, I think it's great that the consensus seems to be that 12th is our ceiling as it means the team can go out about its business without the weight of expectation and fans will enjoy the wins more and be less likely to jump on the club after losses.

As I've noted before, there are too many variables this season (eg new senior coach, tweaked game plan, impact of Claz and Trac going, new players, new CEO, new Prez etc etc) to make an informed prediction of how we might go.

That said i'd be very surprised if the club did not think the finals were a realistic goal - and i will not be surprised in the least if we do make finals,

I think we have a very underrated list, even among dees fans, with some serious talent under 25 years old.

In Koz, Bowser, Roo, The Duke, The Bison, XF, XT, Latrelle, Jeffo and the Kolt we have ten players under the age of 25 who were first round draft selections.

And I'd argue that Riv (24 - and taken at pick 32) and Disco (23 - mid-season rookie draftee) both would've been worthy first round draft picks.

The jury is still well and truly out on Jeffo and the Kolt, and of course two of those players are yet to debut, but still, that is some serious young talent spread between 19 and 24 years old.

We have obviously lost some top end talent with the loss of Claz and Tracc, and it's not unreasonable to argue we are a bit thin for talent in the 25 years and older bracket.

But we have the best ruck in the competition, in Fritter one of the most consistently productive forward in the AFL and if Lever, who is still only 29, can stay injury free he is a top line defender (i'd love to say ditto for Steve May, but I'm not convinced he'll get back to his best).

We didn't have great first half of the preseason in terms of the number of players in rehab. But against that most players in rehab have had relatively minor injuries and have been able to continue build their aerobic base.

Bowser's injury is no good, but he is the only long-term injury we've had thus far.

If we have decent Jan and Feb i think we will be in pretty good shape, pardon the pun, come the season in terms of our collective fitness.

The other factor is, as i have argued previously, i just don't think the competition is particularly strong outside the Lions and perhaps the Crows.

There isn't much separating 10-12 teams IMO, and i think there's a chance we will beat some teams that at this stage pundits have us well ahead of us (eg the Dogs, Freo, Pies and Hawks)

Edited 15 hours ago15 hr by binman

Opinions are one thing, facts are another…

7,809 days since Essendon won a final.

3 hours ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

Am I the only one who read this and for a fleeting moment thought we'd lost the cruise company as a sponsor I never knew we'd had?

I think most of us are pretty confident that Harvey Langford will turn out to be a Fairstar.

2 hours ago, PaulR said:

Predictions for the 2026 season are in part based on how you view the past, and how this can be used to point to a possible 2026.

Since 2021, when we won the flag 😃 we finished top 4 in 2022 and 23. Then we tumbled and finished well outside the 8 in 24 and 25. As a result of these poor finishes we changed coach and exited several players who didn't want to be at Melb, or Melb no longer wanted. Without further revisiting all the details and issues of this period, it must be assumed that the MFC powers deemed 2024-25 as underperformance, identified and remedied the issues, hence the changes, and that with these changes made, we should improve. Reality may not support this, but the club's logic and strategy are clear. If the clubs assumptions, strategies and changes are correct, we should rise and the top 8 be clearly possible.

I'm open to believing that 2024 and 25 were the aberration, not the norm. So with the changes made, we're gonna rise like the phoenix...

Go Demons.

While I agree with your interpretation, there is an alternative possibility that the club did not consider the 2024-25 seasons to be ones of underperformance but thought that without making changes, 2026 would be. Either way, I like that we were prepared to make the tough decisions that we have.

5 hours ago, MaccaR said:

Honestly, the pre-season predictions are generally a massive waste of time. The best anyone can do is roughly predict clubs will finish approx the same place they did the previous year plus or minus 1 or 2 ladder positions up or down.

Almost no one ever predicts the big falls or climbs. I think most MFC supporters rightly see this year as a reset with low expectations, I will wait to assess our current coach and list at the end of the season.

Of interest, here is the AFL 2021 expert ladder predictions:

afl.com.au

Crystal Ball: Our predictions for the 2021 AFL season are in

Premiership, Brownlow, recruit of the year. We make the call

Interesting that only one expert even had us in the eight and Simon Goodwin stated that we were ready to play finals and win the big one.

Not sure why the majority here are laying into someone for sharing their opinion. Barring a drastic unforeseen improvement, it's a realistic assessment.

We've just finished 14th for two years running. We've lost to multiple bottom four teams in that time too. We are objectively a bad team right now. Our premiership and competitive period is well in the rear view mirror now. This is a completely different club and team now, and needs to be viewed for what it is - a 14th placed team building from the ground up again.

We've just lost two of our better players, even if they weren't at their peak anymore. We've got an ageing list (second oldest from memory) with our senior core all ageing and mostly well past their peaks. It stands to reason that we will continue to languish towards the bottom of the ladder in the short term until our younger players mature and become the established core to carry us forward. That is likely a few years away. We are in a rebuild/transition period.

We've taken the right steps to start building success again, but it won't happen overnight. Expectations should be rock bottom for 2026 season.

The BomberBlitzers opinion is reasonable. Anyone shredding it expecting any real success in 2026 has got rocks in their head.

IMO we'll likely finish 12th-18th. Anything higher will be ahead of schedule.

I guess the best question to ask in this particular thread is: Of the two, which team will be the first to win a final - Essendon or Melbourne?

1 hour ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

I guess the best question to ask in this particular thread is: Of the two, which team will be the first to win a final - Essendon or Melbourne?

Will we finish above them and/or will we beat them in the H&A.

To improve to say 11th we need to overtake (most likely) Essendon Port and Carlton. Not sure about the Swans. North are still a question mark.

Making finals doesn't excite me anymore. Since 1987 (excluding the horror years) we often made finals but rarely did we have a team to win the big one.

I'm looking for solid forward progression and evidence of a post Gawn world. (He has two more years at best is my guess). Salem, Melksham and Lever (injury) will also be gone. I think we have May covered with Petty (why he was wasted up forward for two plus years we'll never know).

5 hours ago, binman said:

The other factor is, as i have argued previously, i just don't think the competition is particularly strong outside the Lions and perhaps the Crows.

Suns the dark horse. Mids to die for, younger players a year older (Humphries!), the addition of one of the best players in the AFL (Trac) and if JUH gets back to anything like what he's capable of they're going to be a force to be reckoned with.

10 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Suns the dark horse. Mids to die for, younger players a year older (Humphries!), the addition of one of the best players in the AFL (Trac) and if JUH gets back to anything like what he's capable of they're going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Agree bing181 Suns list is massive, they should be 2nd favourites this year, they have a vg coach as well and I will be shocked if they don’t make top 4. Funny how they beat us for the first time only recently.

15 minutes ago, bing181 said:

Suns the dark horse. Mids to die for, younger players a year older (Humphries!), the addition of one of the best players in the AFL (Trac) and if JUH gets back to anything like what he's capable of they're going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Yep, tend to agree. And as much as i hate to say it i think tracc is a perfect fir for them and won't surprise me if he get back to his AA best. And they looked super fit last year.

A really interesting thing about the Suns, at least to me, is their game plan.

Hardwick has them playing a style not a million miles from that of the Tigers under him - contest, defence, and most notably bucking the trend of short and medium kicks to transition the ball and instead doing what the Tigers did under Hardwick - kicking long and focus on winning the subsequent ground ball or aerial contest.

As evidence of that, in 2025 the Suns were number one in the AFL for metres gained per kick - diametrically opposite to the Lions who were 17th for metres gained per kick.

Edited 12 hours ago12 hr by binman

29 minutes ago, binman said:

won't surprise me if he get back to his AA best.

It will surprise me and I wouldn't be surprised if the discussion at the end of the season was about why they went after him.

Could well unbalance the list...

1 hour ago, bing181 said:

Suns the dark horse.

Wouldn't the suns be the bright light?

On 21/01/2026 at 18:01, Little Goffy said:

Melbourne right now is a pundit's dream. You could say just about anything and make a case for it. Except possibly 'everything will click in 2026'.

Our defensive unit will either wither with age and injury while young talls stall their development, or there will be a terrific overlap of rejuvenated and motivated veteran core providing stability for dynamic successors.

Our midfield will either be crushed under the weight of effort to provide a sustained full unit, or our two veteran warriors will provide the guardianship and defensive solidity for an eminently complex and unpredictable mix of heights, styles and strengths from an enthusiastic young group which believes in their future together.

Our forward line is either built around a young tall who plateaued early and will never quite be effective at AFL level, a forward-ruck who isn't quite the real thing, unfit smalls, and some ancient veterans who can barely move even when they do get on the park... or we have put together a critical mass of some of the smartest and most experienced forward-line movers who can guide our young highly mobile talls to make the most of their different instincts and a frightening collection of smalls who can appear anywhere without warning and will hunt anything that moves.

Our ruck is, of course, a bit of a Gawn or bust situation.

Up in the box and on the bench, and on training days, our coaches are either a brilliantly selected cadre of specialists under a senior coach who has been nurturing a vision and planning how to communicate it for years, or it is a grab bag of whoever happened to be available on the cheap and willing to work with that big dork Stephen.

So, yeah, that about covers it. Predicted finish from 19th (behind Tassie) to 4th, I'd say.

Cannot wait for the First Edition Comic Series.....King of the Demons.

17 hours ago, Fritta and Turner said:

If you want to be insulated from the noise what are you doing on Demonland?

The training photos, the match summaries and the excellent podcast mostly.

I have to get my information from somewhere, I'm just glad it's not constant media noise hammering me day in and day out, especially this year where I think we are going to become the medias whipping targets, relentlessly, for the entire season