2 hours ago, Farmer said:

I can’t believe how many words u have wasted on this topic ! I think u overlook that we have an elite group of young mids and flankers . Not many clubs have a group like McVee, Bowey, Langford, Lindsay, Windsor, to which I add Rivers and Chandler who are still young . If Tom McDonald, who has had an excellent season, can’t get a game , our defence is strong . Our mids, including several experienced stars , were outrageously good yesterday especially when Kosi on the ball. I agree there are gaps on the forward line, but if JVR can regain form , it would look pretty strong . It’s tough to maintain momentum after such a bad start, but the season is obviously well and truly alive .

Did you read the post you quoted? I most certainly acknowledged the younger brigade, but said we need 1 or 2 more...

Bit of time on my hands!...

Let's assume we can't bridge the percentage gaps (though more on that later). And let's assume we can't catch Suns, Lions (currently 3 wins ahead) or Magpies (4).

Next round, for us and the teams ahead of us on the ladder, if teams higher on the ladder than their opposition win, the 4th-11th 'wins ladder' will be: Crows 8, Cats 8, Hawks 7, Giants 7, Dogs 6, Dockers 6, Bombers 6, Demons 6.

Then, if, in the remaining rounds, those 7 teams above us lose to those currently above them and defeat those currently below them, the final 'wins ladder' for them would be: Cats 17, Crows 15 + Demons game, Dogs 14 + Demons game, Hawks 13 + Demons game, Giants 13, Dockers 13, Bombers 11.

Most likely minimum requirement, then, is 14 wins, to sneak into 8th, at the expense of Giants. Wins against Hawks, Hawks and Dogs, and Hawks, Dogs and Crows would be necessary for 7th, 6th, and 5th, respectively, to come into play in this scenario.

So, at least 9 wins (including next week) from 12 remaining games, 3 of which are against current 1st, twice, and 3rd.

If we could bridge the percentage gap to the Giants in this scenario (currently 17%) we could sneak into 8th with 13 wins.

Edited Monday at 08:264 days by Timothy Reddan-A'Blew

I'm reading alot of posts wondering if we can sneak into the 8?

On the back of the last 6 weeks I'm wondering who can beat us when we storm in there.

Our game plan was ridiculed by me last year and almost everybody thought it was outdated when we were losing so badly at the start of the year.

Now we move the ball faster than any other side, we've got our contested possesion game back and are so much more unpredictable with the angles we are taking.

We're not sitting top of the ladder, like we have done previously where everyone analyses you not stop and tries to find a way to break your system...

If injuries and suspension (Kozzie) are friendly to us in the finals. I wouldn't want to be the team coming up against us

My current thinking around the "run home" (which at this point is better described as the second half of the season).

We have 12 games remaining. 6 of them are against sides currently below us on the ladder (St Kilda x 2, Carlton, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, West Coast). The other 6 are, obviously, against sides currently above us (Collingwood x 2, Gold Coast, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Bulldogs).

If we win the 6 games against the sides below us, that gets us 11 wins. We'd then need at least 2, maybe 3, of the other 6 to get into the top 8. For every game we drop against the lower ranked sides we have to win another one against the higher ranked sides.

It won't be easy, but it's doable. Going into the byes last year Hawthorn was 4-7 with a percentage of 82.8%, but got their percentage up to 118.5% by winning 10 of their last 12 games - however, 6 of their last 7 wins were by 60+ points, including a 124 point win vs North in the final round.

If we fall short, we're going to seriously rue the loss to GWS most of all, and then the terrible fourth quarter drop offs vs North, Geelong, Essendon and Hawthorn. The percentage damage we took when those margins blew out late could easily ruin us, if we do get on a roll from here.

We took down the lions on there track and the following week Sydney on our deck.

That’s last years grand finalists. We have been in a position to beat the filth each game in the last two years a no d they have the same players do we will st least be very competitive.

But we need to get over Saint Kilda. They can be unpredictable as much as our response to them can be as well.

Win these two and let us see what happens then Go Dee’s

We need to be 7-7 at the bye to be any chance. And then go at least 6-3 but probably 7-2 with our poor percentage. That’s a tough task.

Can’t see too many teams currently in the 8 going into a potential free fall, although Hawthorn could be showing signs, Adelaide are unproven with respect to sustaining an entire season (although they came close to this in 2023) and GWS have been inconsistent.

Need to take care of business against St Kilda at a venue where we’ve lost our last 2 game at.

I'm very concerned that we may not have a few spare weeks for "loading" before our finals series 😁

29 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

We need to be 7-7 at the bye to be any chance. And then go at least 6-3 but probably 7-2 with our poor percentage. That’s a tough task.

Can’t see too many teams currently in the 8 going into a potential free fall, although Hawthorn could be showing signs, Adelaide are unproven with respect to sustaining an entire season (although they came close to this in 2023) and GWS have been inconsistent.

Need to take care of business against St Kilda at a venue where we’ve lost our last 2 game at.

You're missing the fact that if we go on a run, we take wins off the top 8 who we play...

8th place will need 13 wins and 110% imho

Might that be us 🤔 🤷‍♂️

If good enough.

We'll probably get a clearer picture before the 3 months is up.

Crossed fingers and toes

ive done the ladder predictor on squiggle a few times and i make it we need 14 wins to get in the 8 due to our % and the fact that there are 3 fairly poor teams that wont win many games. that means we need 9/14 from here which will be extremely tough. lookout if we do make it because will be hotttt

Hawthorn and GWS are the 2 teams I see us moving above on the ladder. Fremantle are the other side we’re competing with. Adelaide are also no guarantees to keep winning and our game against them should be a belter.

Our current form looks as good as anyone’s and I’ll just keep saying it, If we remain injury free, keep improving incrementally then we could easily go deep in September. Don’t anyone underestimate just how good Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and Viney can be when all in form, which it appears they are and also improving. I keep thinking in terms of the next 3-4 matches and their importance. In reality it’s just StKilda that matter. Win that, dust off and go again.

4 minutes ago, Roost it far said:

Hawthorn and GWS are the 2 teams I see us moving above on the ladder. Fremantle are the other side we’re competing with. Adelaide are also no guarantees to keep winning and our game against them should be a belter.

Our current form looks as good as anyone’s and I’ll just keep saying it, If we remain injury free, keep improving incrementally then we could easily go deep in September. Don’t anyone underestimate just how good Gawn, Petracca, Oliver and Viney can be when all in form, which it appears they are and also improving. I keep thinking in terms of the next 3-4 matches and their importance. In reality it’s just StKilda that matter. Win that, dust off and go again.

Agree.

Adelaide have not fully been challenged yet either. They the Lions/Hawks in the next few weeks.

Our list on paper is great. We have one of the best (non) injury lists right now (touch wood), and our form/confidence clearly increasing.

You're right. Win against the Saints and we unlock an opportunity to keep moving forward. One game at a time!

We can only win one game at a time :-)

On 26/05/2025 at 18:56, Wrecker45 said:

I'm reading alot of posts wondering if we can sneak into the 8?

On the back of the last 6 weeks I'm wondering who can beat us when we storm in there.

I like this.

On 26/05/2025 at 18:56, Wrecker45 said:

Our game plan was ridiculed by me last year and almost everybody thought it was outdated when we were losing so badly at the start of the year.

Many thought it wasn't outdated, just that it hadn't clicked or wouldn't. Many pundits on here talked about our changing game style, even the media did.

On 26/05/2025 at 18:56, Wrecker45 said:

Now we move the ball faster than any other side,

We have all season though...

On 26/05/2025 at 18:56, Wrecker45 said:

we've got our contested possesion game back and are so much more unpredictable with the angles we are taking.

We're not sitting top of the ladder, like we have done previously where everyone analyses you not stop and tries to find a way to break your system...

If injuries and suspension (Kozzie) are friendly to us in the finals. I wouldn't want to be the team coming up against us

Agree with this.

RE Charlie Spargo and people questioning his role without knowing his KPIs, Goodwin said this:

"He's been such a great contributor in the last four to six weeks in the AFL team. He's been a big part in helping us in many areas of our team, but we'll get him back at the right time of the year."

In 1975 North started 0 & 4 and were then 3 & 6 after 9 rounds

On 26/05/2025 at 09:47, Adam The God said:

Did you read the post you quoted? I most certainly acknowledged the younger brigade, but said we need 1 or 2 more...

I’m guessing this is nothing compared to Gold Coast and GWS?

I've always thought of the run to the 8 in terms of the pace needed to overcome immediate rivals, rather than target number of wins.

Surely from this point we will outperform Essendon by 1 win. Surely?

Then we need to find two more teams we can pass on the ladder.

The "Just do better than them" set;

Freo - one win and what looks like a truckload of percentage, but is actually a gross margin of about 150 total. Over ten games, if our margins average 15 points better than theirs, we gain that. Very hard to judge because we've been DOWN and then UP in clear blocks, but Freo have been up and down all over the place all season. But, 15 points a game better margins than Freo is absolutely realistic, so we really could pass them even if they don't implode.

GWS - similar to Freo, but closer to a 200 point gross margin between us and them. GWS have been more consistent in so far as they haven't had any blowouts, but there is a bit of a flat track bully question mark on them. This is not a day and age where you can prosper for long relying on a full forward to kick 7 goals 1!

The "Hope they stumble badly" set;

Bulldogs - percentage is plainly out of reach and the Dogs look like they are grinding along efficiently now, and have a relatively mild draw so picking up two wins on them seems a stretch.

Hawthorn - Now here are your flat track bullies! Cross your fingers this is true because a two win lead can evaporate very quickly. Percentage gap is about 250 points, which is a lot but if the Hawks don't find some mettle against strong sides they will cop it badly late in the season. Magpies, Dogs, Crows for the next three rounds, and they finish the season against the Crows (in Adelaide) Magpies, DEMONS and then Brisbane at the Gabba.

Geelong is always on the edge of a cliff, but I've let go of anticipating the fall. Be assured, I will watch it with joy when it comes.

Adelaide, well, definitely flat track bullies with their only win against a top-8 side being the Giants, in Adelaide, in a miserable 52-34 point game. Unfortunately their draw appears to stay pretty soft.

Collingwood - it is always possible they'll get done for chemical activities, salary cap rorts, match fixing, or just plain age finally catching up, but it doesn't look likely.

12 minutes ago, Little Goffy said:

I've always thought of the run to the 8 in terms of the pace needed to overcome immediate rivals, rather than target number of wins.

Surely from this point we will outperform Essendon by 1 win. Surely?

Then we need to find two more teams we can pass on the ladder.

The "Just do better than them" set;

Freo - one win and what looks like a truckload of percentage, but is actually a gross margin of about 150 total. Over ten games, if our margins average 15 points better than theirs, we gain that. Very hard to judge because we've been DOWN and then UP in clear blocks, but Freo have been up and down all over the place all season. But, 15 points a game better margins than Freo is absolutely realistic, so we really could pass them even if they don't implode.

GWS - similar to Freo, but closer to a 200 point gross margin between us and them. GWS have been more consistent in so far as they haven't had any blowouts, but there is a bit of a flat track bully question mark on them. This is not a day and age where you can prosper for long relying on a full forward to kick 7 goals 1!

The "Hope they stumble badly" set;

Bulldogs - percentage is plainly out of reach and the Dogs look like they are grinding along efficiently now, and have a relatively mild draw so picking up two wins on them seems a stretch.

Hawthorn - Now here are your flat track bullies! Cross your fingers this is true because a two win lead can evaporate very quickly. Percentage gap is about 250 points, which is a lot but if the Hawks don't find some mettle against strong sides they will cop it badly late in the season. Magpies, Dogs, Crows for the next three rounds, and they finish the season against the Crows (in Adelaide) Magpies, DEMONS and then Brisbane at the Gabba.

Geelong is always on the edge of a cliff, but I've let go of anticipating the fall. Be assured, I will watch it with joy when it comes.

Adelaide, well, definitely flat track bullies with their only win against a top-8 side being the Giants, in Adelaide, in a miserable 52-34 point game. Unfortunately their draw appears to stay pretty soft.

Collingwood - it is always possible they'll get done for chemical activities, salary cap rorts, match fixing, or just plain age finally catching up, but it doesn't look likely.

And the QLD sides?

Edited Wednesday at 03:092 days by Adam The God

I'm getting 1993 Geelong vibes about us this year.

For those that know their footy history will know what I'm referring to.

1 hour ago, Little Goffy said:

I've always thought of the run to the 8 in terms of the pace needed to overcome immediate rivals, rather than target number of wins.

Our competition is in the 6-15 bracket for those who like to play ladder predictor

Lose on QB (she lives) and it gets harder. With 11 games completed it's looking like 13 and percentage gets you in. Our percentage is not great but some in the 6-15 bracket are worse. Someone will play a draw so it could even be more complicated.

In the immediate sense we need to pass Essendon remembering that they have the extra game against the Suns at the end of the season. (Notionally Suns are second on the ladder at present behind the Pies by only 1%).

Anyway let's hopefully enjoy the next two weeks and see where we are. It's a very tough backend of the season as others have mentioned

4 hours ago, Adam The God said:

You're missing the fact that if we go on a run, we take wins off the top 8 who we play...

Agreed but it's a pity we can't take 4 points off GWS on the run home.

7 hours ago, Red But Mostly Blue said:

CAgree.

Adelaide have not fully been challenged yet either. They the Lions/Hawks in the next few weeks.

Our list on paper is great. We have one of the best (non) injury lists right now (touch wood), and our form/confidence clearly increasing.

You're right. Win against the Saints and we unlock an opportunity to keep moving forward. One game at a time!

We can only win one game at a time :-)

Correct- one game at a time.

I hate to be pragmatic but I don’t think playing finals is the be all and end all in 2025. Imo It’s more important that we’ve gone close, beaten some top sides on the way and proven our style of play. Worth remembering we missed the finals in 2020 in those circumstances.

Be great to make it of course but I don’t think we’re going to win it in 25 even if we do make it. 2026 might feel like a different beast.

Season is definitely alive if we beat the saints & we could be well and truly set if the club holds on yo Kozzi!

Deebrief had a good chat about it with Robbo!

I still think 13 wins is a probable Finals berth. In the last 2 years 14 wins has easily been enough. I always felt that in the 22-game seasons that 12 was the magic number. Most years it was enough and adjusting to now 12.5 to 13 looks about right. Most #8 teams are average , so usually 14 wins 9 losses is a big ask.

There'll be sides that improve from here and ones that will go backwards. Usually form, fitness, injuries , confidence etc will cause surprises later in the season. We will need some luck. But sometimes this will happen.

Edited Wednesday at 11:172 days by Go Ds