9 hours ago, Rodney (Balls) Grinter said:

Sorry, but I can see Richmond getting belted in quite a few games and generally uncompetitive for the next year or two.  I know they've drafted a bunch of talent, but I think history has shown that putting a bunch of talented kids up against men week in, week out that they can't bridge the gap between youth and experience, developing and age hardened mature bodies.  Thinking of examples like North in recent times, but even Gold Coast and GWS, who had ridiculous draft riches and priority talent at their disposal.  Then, there's always one or two sides that either fall away and/or have a horid season with injuries and drop way down in competitiveness.

As much as the draft, salary cap etc even things up, I think having only 40 odd players per team on a list means that beyond best 22, there can be a relative shallowness of ready to play talent on most lists which will provide a spectrum of competitiveness across the league given age profiles and injuries etc.

Outside of Richmond. North and West Coast, I think all other clubs have the potential to finish in the top 8, even North and West Coast won't be to far off.  Not to many years you would say 15 clubs are a genuine top 8 contender.

23 hours ago, VNightCityLegend said:

Yeah, around the mark. We were judged by most as “must make the 8”

This bookmark is saved on my homescreen. 😂

https://footyology.com.au/afl-2021-heres-your-teams-premiership-odds/

We were 22 to 1 back then

 

We're now 26 to 1

We have a real chance of being 6-2 or 7-1 given our draw. If that was to pass we'd be in to 12s or 8s

Juicy

https://www.afr.com/technology/deepseek-backs-the-pies-chatgpt-the-dees-and-other-ai-disputes-20250128-p5l7qu

OpenAI backs the Dees.... 

 

There is still the nucleus of 2021 Premiership side, Tracc and Clarrie should be back into it wanting to prove points and there has been good young draftee recruiting over the last few years. I am expecting JVR to step up a notch now. I am tipping the Dees to be in the top 4 mix.

I honestly believe the Players have to set a standard, between themselves. Which is basically what happened during the preseason of ‘21

The Players have to demand 100% commitment to the Season 

We have serious talent and leadership on our list, these players must inspire the younger guys to “get better”

Max can inspire, that is why he is (C)

We've now gone from $2.60 to make the 8 to $3. I dont understand but Im planning on covering next years membership with a smallish outlay. I honestly believe many players are looking to have a very good year. ##Dont Jinx our near perfect Pre-season##

Dwayne is bullish ~ Why Russell is bullish that Melbourne can return to the top eight in 2025

3 minutes ago, Whispering_Jack said:

Dwayne is bullish ~ Why Russell is bullish that Melbourne can return to the top eight in 2025

Wow, if Dwayne’s saying that we should be flag favourites 

I'm not dyslexic but 'bullish' always looks rude. Russell doesn't sound like he's that confident - scraping into the 8 isn't exactly the same as saying he thinks we'll come third.

He did state some proviso’s, Clarry and Tracc back to their best, May and Lever with Petty in the backline and Kozz being up and about we have the cattle to cover all the other bases. Sounds like he has been reading parts of Demonland. 😁 But I agree with him and raise him, with an ounce of luck we will make top four and then who knows??

On 01/02/2025 at 08:48, Whispering_Jack said:

Dwayne is bullish ~ Why Russell is bullish that Melbourne can return to the top eight in 2025

Yep, this isn’t the first time he’s talked us up. Either late last year or in early January he was talking us up on his SEN program, in relation to bounce back teams.

He was also bullish about us during his call of the Suns V Dees game late in the year with respect to us contending for 2025. (Mind you he can get over excited whenever a team’s doing well in any given game)

On 28/01/2025 at 14:43, Demon Disciple said:

Name a team that’s legitimately been in the window for a few years, dipped out of the 8, only to be a serious threat once again?

Odds are against us………………..would love it to happen though, to stick it up all the naysayers. 

On 28/01/2025 at 14:43, Demon Disciple said:

Name a team that’s legitimately been in the window for a few years, dipped out of the 8, only to be a serious threat once again?

Odds are against us………………..would love it to happen though, to stick it up all the naysayers. 

Geelong were only two goals off winning last years flag, after missing the eight in 2023!

On 01/02/2025 at 08:48, Whispering_Jack said:

Dwayne is bullish ~ Why Russell is bullish that Melbourne can return to the top eight in 2025

Dwayne - surely “bullish” is a typo or autocorrect for what Dwayne really says.  

8 hours ago, D4Life said:

 

Umm while I kinda agree with you even if Geelong got those few extra goals there's no guarantee they would have won the GF.

8 hours ago, D4Life said:

Geelong were only two goals off winning last years flag, after missing the eight in 2023!

Umm while I kinda agree with you even if Geelong got those few extra goals there's no guarantee they would have won the GF.

10 hours ago, D4Life said:

 

No they were only 2 goals away from making the GFinal, not winning. And Cats had been premiers in 2022 twelfth in 2023 and third in 2024.

So it can happen and I believe if we have no serious stars injured plus improved seasons from about half our players plus our youngsters take the next steps and our 2021 focus is repeated then we are a Top4 and Flag possibility. 

On 28/01/2025 at 15:39, Salems Lot said:

Odds in AFL betting relates directly to each team's fanbase IMHO. GWS could have the best list in the league but low supporter numbers means fewer people backing them compared to the Filth or the other big fan bases

This is just not true.  It can have some influence but the $5 & $10 bets that most supporters put on their own team are just a drop in the ocean compared  to the money that the big guys stake. 

3 minutes ago, The Jackson FIX said:

This is just not true.  It can have some influence but the $5 & $10 bets that most supporters put on their own team are just a drop in the ocean compared  to the money that the big guys stake. 

I think early in the season they are probably more influenced by team supporter bases. As the season goes on and the pool becomes bigger then it will revert to more the punters views.

3 hours ago, The Jackson FIX said:

This is just not true.  It can have some influence but the $5 & $10 bets that most supporters put on their own team are just a drop in the ocean compared  to the money that the big guys stake. 

I would suggest that it is mainly fans that are betting at this end of the season.

Honestly I'm not sure why people want to lock their money away for something like 7 or 8 months on things like premiership and finals betting. I have bet on Melbourne before just a couple of times but I've never been compelled to automatically bet on them for the flag, finals or any particular  game.  I really don't know how many people are like this. I think I've read of one poster here betting on Melbourne to make the 8 and another to win the flag this season. Are there many others on here that always do? I would guess most on here are much keener fans than those among the general public. If most of us don't always bet on the year-long markets it's probably the case that a huge proportion of each supporter base don't either (and token 5 dollar bets are enough to satisfy the ones that do anyway)

I suspect overall the punters that bet in the hundreds or thousands across each round are the main 'formers' of the current markets. I know in horse racing overall the markets are very accurate. It's probably the same with AFL matches too BUT less so with the current finals and flag markets (there's so many extra unknowns over summer). But they wouldn't be way off either and the bookies would be careful about having any team at prices much higher than they should be. Sorry, but a team's prices will be quite different from year to year and Gold Coast or Giants won't always be longer than Collingwood.

3 hours ago, Salems Lot said:

I would suggest that it is mainly fans that are betting at this end of the season.

It still doesn’t materially shape the odds.
 

If bookmakers set the market poorly off the back of small fan-bets then they are exposed. There are bet backs from other corporates that can happen, peer to peer traders (eg betfair) who would prey on markets like this if meaningfully influenced by emotional punters etc. 

For a market like this they would have a specialist football trader who sets the market and then adjusts as money comes in but they’re only adjusting in scenarios where a material downside presents.

I set significant faith in excellent preseasons, recoveries from injury and fixtures. I think we are overs for the 8 @$3. Much water to pass under the bridge I admit.

Edited February 3, 20251 yr by Damo

I don’t gamble but I’d happily put $250 on us making the 8, that’s money for jam baby!

Max AA ruckman at about $7 is the one I like the look of… they’ve written the big fella off!

On 28/01/2025 at 10:51, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Because we lost 10 of our last 15 games. Some of them in quite frankly embarrassing and un Melbourne like and un Goodwin like (in terms of the majority of his coaching tenure) fashion.

If you were a non MFC supporter or media pundit who had no skin in the MFC, it's only natural to go by the latest evidence that was provided to you. Last impressions last, as opposed to first impressions when we started 6-2.

For example Hawthorn were 2-6 at the same time we were 6-2 in 2024. I seriously doubt people are going to take stock into that appalling start when predicting Hawthorn's ladder finish in 2025, just like most people won't factor in our impressive 6-2 start to 2024.

As for your post, it's a very fair assessment IMO. And you're not wrong with the wider AFL community not rating us. In a sample of 75 predictions on the Bigfooty ladder thread, just 3 non Dees supporters tipped us to make the 8. Just 3!!

 

That's exactly why I got on the make the eight bet. Could be wrong but there is just a ridiculous amount of improvement in this team,(and club).