Dees being seriously underrated

[cam.noble1 31]

With all this talk and social media revolving around the Dees being no longer in top 8 form I just don't see that being possible. At this moment we definitely aren't a premiership side but being predicted around the bottom 5 on the ladder is just crazy in my opinion. Looking at our list we have some insane rookies that have showed promising potential such as Windsor, Kolt, Browny, Mcvee and even Riv.

Not only do we already have depth with our young players we still have arguably the best player in the league, Trac. Clarry is once again showing that he will hopefully have a massive rebound season and dominate the mid once again alongside the best Ruckman in the league, if not all time. I just don't understand how people can be saying we won't be a competitive side.

 

Edited January 29 by Grapeviney

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,345]

18 minutes ago, cam.noble1 said:

With all this talk and social media revolving around the Dees being no longer in top 8 form I just don't see that being possible. At this moment we definitely aren't a premiership side but being predicted around the bottom 5 on the ladder is just crazy in my opinion. Looking at our list we have some insane rookies that have showed promising potential such as Windsor, Kolt, Browny, Mcvee and even Riv.

Not only do we already have depth with our young players we still have arguably the best player in the league, Trac. Clarry is once again showing that he will hopefully have a massive rebound season and dominate the mid once again alongside the best Ruckman in the league, if not all time. I just don't understand how people can be saying we won't be a competitive side.

 

Because we lost 10 of our last 15 games. Some of them in quite frankly embarrassing and un Melbourne like and un Goodwin like (in terms of the majority of his coaching tenure) fashion.

If you were a non MFC supporter or media pundit who had no skin in the MFC, it's only natural to go by the latest evidence that was provided to you. Last impressions last, as opposed to first impressions when we started 6-2.

For example Hawthorn were 2-6 at the same time we were 6-2 in 2024. I seriously doubt people are going to take stock into that appalling start when predicting Hawthorn's ladder finish in 2025, just like most people won't factor in our impressive 6-2 start to 2024.

As for your post, it's a very fair assessment IMO. And you're not wrong with the wider AFL community not rating us. In a sample of 75 predictions on the Bigfooty ladder thread, just 3 non Dees supporters tipped us to make the 8. Just 3!!

 

Edited January 27 by Bring-Back-Powell

[Ghostwriter 4,502]

23 minutes ago, cam.noble1 said:

With all this talk and social media revolving around the Dees being no longer in top 8 form I just don't see that being possible. At this moment we definitely aren't a premiership side but being predicted around the bottom 5 on the ladder is just crazy in my opinion. Looking at our list we have some insane rookies that have showed promising potential such as Windsor, Kolt, Browny, Mcvee and even Riv.

Not only do we already have depth with our young players we still have arguably the best player in the league, Trac. Clarry is once again showing that he will hopefully have a massive rebound season and dominate the mid once again alongside the best Ruckman in the league, if not all time. I just don't understand how people can be saying we won't be a competitive side.

 

Many are saying we’ll end up bottom four based on finishing 14th last season, coupled with believing everything they read/hear in the media. And why wouldn’t they, right? If this was any other club I’d probably form the same opinion. I reckon it’s great that us failing is widely expected: it lessens the pressure. The other 17 clubs won’t know what hit them 👊🏼

 

PS: that apostrophe in your thread title needs to go, I just know it’s gonna do my head in 😂

Edited January 27 by Ghostwriter

[The Jackson FIX 3,436]

28 minutes ago, cam.noble1 said:

At this moment we definitely aren't a premiership side but being predicted around the bottom 5 on the ladder is just crazy in my opinion.

Recency effect. Just like Hawthorn being touted as flag fancies (currently 2nd in premiership betting).

Seasons rarely pan out like general public opinion expects them to pan out. 

[Vipercrunch 2,847]

I think history shows we perform better when outside expecations are low, so personally, I am rapt to be flying under the radar of the footy world.

[hardtack 10,975]

Maybe it’s because I’m in Sydney and we aren’t saturated with radio (and TV maybe?) talk about AFL comings and goings, but I’ve noticed no media talk of us being a bottom 5 team or even being out of finals contention.

But there are good reasons why such a lack of confidence might exist… as has already been pointed out, our very poor second half of last season, we are the equal second oldest list in the comp, Trac is yet to show conclusively that there are no detrimental effects from his injuries (mental or physical), yes he’s looking much fitter physically, but Clarrie is yet to show conclusively that his head is back in the game, we have lost two very important cogs in ANB and Brayshaw (the latter definitely affected last season’s results…you’d hope so, but have we yet found a suitable replacement?), it is yet to be determined if we have a fully and effectively functioning forward line, rookies are known to often have the second year blues (otherwise they wouldn’t have coined a term for it), our new coaching line up is yet to show whether they will make the changes that will bring results (we’ll have to wait until game-day to find that out) and finally, something out of the club’s control, there are 17 other teams, all looking to improve their performances and who also have quality rookies and experienced older heads, so until we face them, we have no idea whether all of the aforementioned will see us rise or fall.

Having said all of that, and as I said in another topic, I believe we’ll finish in the eight, but not top four, meaning our odds for a premiership are not good.

Edited January 28 by hardtack

[Robbie57 2,041]

34 minutes ago, Ghostwriter said:

 

PS: that apostrophe in your thread title needs to go, I just know it’s gonna do my head in 😂

👍

[DistrACTION Jackson 10,399]

32 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

Because we lost 10 of our last 15 games. Some of them in quite frankly embarrassing and un Melbourne like and un Goodwin like (in terms of the majority of his coaching tenure) fashion.

If you were a non MFC supporter or media pundit who had no skin in the MFC, it's only natural to go by the latest evidence that was provided to you. Last impressions last, as opposed to first impressions when we started 6-2.

For example Hawthorn were 2-6 at the same time we were 6-2 in 2024. I seriously doubt people are going to take stock into that appalling start when predicting Hawthorn's ladder finish in 2025, just like most people won't factor in our impressive 6-2 start to 2024.

As for your post, it's a very fair assessment IMO. And you're not wrong with the wider AFL community not rating us. In a sample of 75 predictions on the Bigfooty ladder thread, just 3 non Dees supporters tipped us to make the 8. Just 3!!

 

This is definitely the reason, but if people dug a little deeper they would see we lost to Carlton by 1 point, Brisbane by 5 at the Gabba, Giants by 2 points & Port by 2 points.

We had some very poor losses as well against West Coast, Freo x 2, the Dogs and the Pies, but I take some confidence out of those other games that we weren't too far off.

[Deemania since 56 6,772]

15 minutes ago, Vipercrunch said:

I think history shows we perform better when outside expecations are low, so personally, I am rapt to be flying under the radar of the footy world.

The 'under the radar' status is a blessing well disguised; it assists to have other teams' selectors make incorrect, early decisions about their respective team profiles and methodologies. It may also reduce prejudicial umpire behaviours towards the Dees early in the season, so as to lessen the establishment of outright, season-long crud decisions that exacerbate fair play and related AFL privilege anointments. It's also just nice to stampede successes early, crushing opposition teams with confidence and surprise from a lower rung in public estimations.

 

[dees189227 12,453]

Not surprised.  I mean we're a team that really can't be trusted. We are very inconsistent.  

[Young Angus 850]

Where did they have us predicted to finish in 2021 during the 2020/2021 off season?

[Earl Hood 6,152]

We have the cattle to be top 4 but so much depends on the game plan. If we don’t adapt to the way the game is now being played we will have the likes of Fremantle, Collingwood and Brisbane running rings around us yet again. 

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,345]

2 minutes ago, Young Angus said:

Where did they have us predicted to finish in 2021 during the 2020/2021 off season?

I often wonder what our odds were to win the flag at the start of the 2021 year, but I suspect it was around $26, which is incidentally what we are now. So I'd say the consensus was around 10th - 11th.

 

[chook fowler 19,734]

there are so many variables I can't see how anyone can have an opinion that's any better than guess work. 

[VNightCityLegend 125]

21 minutes ago, Bring-Back-Powell said:

I often wonder what our odds were to win the flag at the start of the 2021 year, but I suspect it was around $26, which is incidentally what we are now. So I'd say the consensus was around 10th - 11th.

 

Yeah, around the mark. We were judged by most as “must make the 8”

This bookmark is saved on my homescreen. 😂

https://footyology.com.au/afl-2021-heres-your-teams-premiership-odds/

[Big Gun 68]

Like most others, I am quite optimistic of our chances of steep improvement this year. Hopefully deep into September. I think a good start to the season (say 4-2 or better) could set us up nicely for a serious tilt at it. I am concerned however that we may start the season slowly with players taking time to gel under the new game style Goody has said is being implemented. I reckon the list is still very good with depth across the field and with the injection of more youth during the year, hopefully exciting times ahead.

[Ghostwriter 4,502]

35 minutes ago, dees189227 said:

Not surprised.  I mean we were a team that really couldn’t be trusted. We were very inconsistent.  

FIFY 😝

 

 

You're welcome! 

[praha 11,253]

I think it's fair. Preseason chatter is always about teams that finished strong + ladder position. I remember David King saying at the end of last year he expects us to return to finals. 

I think the reality is we have plugged a lot of holes but we need a gameplan change to contest. Four straight finals exits, and a capitulation towards the end of last year rightly raises doubts.

If we'd finished top 8 and won a final then I'd say we are being underrated but otherwise I'd say the ratings are about right (except the ones saying we'll be bottom 4).

No one is going to risk being ridiculed for saying we are a contender when the reality is there are far too many unknowns about how we'll perform.

[Bring-Back-Powell 15,345]

46 minutes ago, VNightCityLegend said:

Yeah, around the mark. We were judged by most as “must make the 8”

This bookmark is saved on my homescreen. 😂

https://footyology.com.au/afl-2021-heres-your-teams-premiership-odds/

Great work mate in saving that link.

I noticed the Swans were $70 to win the flag and ended up making the 8. A bit of money was to be had there. 

[Little Goffy 14,791]

If we were on a proper statistical chart there wouldn't even be a prediction point, just the probability range bars going from 1 to 18.

Personally I think we'll win the premiership, but predicting the Demon's 2025 is a mad game to play.

[Demons11 7,128]

2 hours ago, dees189227 said:

Not surprised.  I mean we're a team that really can't be trusted. We are very inconsistent.  

We were inconsistent last year on the back of a whole raft of issues, we have been incredibly consistent over the last few years prior to last

[Sydee 4,661]

I suspect the reason most people have low expectations of us is 

1. We do not have a proven tall KPF that can be relied upon to kick 40-50 goals. Fritta is great but he is not a KPF and Roo might be that player but at this point in time he is more potential than actual results 

 

2. Our midfield is on paper at least very strong but there will be doubts on whether Trac and Clarry will be at their best , can Max stay on the park for most of the season. Everyone saw last season that if we lose one or two of those 3 we start to look a bit vulnerable in the midfield. Playing kossie and or Riv through there might help with depth but it’s not unfair for people to see this as a potential weakness 

Overall my take is that it’s an incredibly even competition you need a little bit of luck - we didn’t have much of that in 2024 - if we get our fair share I think we can and should play finals 

[Demon Disciple 12,485]

Name a team that’s legitimately been in the window for a few years, dipped out of the 8, only to be a serious threat once again?

Odds are against us………………..would love it to happen though, to stick it up all the naysayers. 

[Roost it far 9,747]

1 minute ago, Demon Disciple said:

Name a team that’s legitimately been in the window for a few years, dipped out of the 8, only to be a serious threat once again?

Odds are against us………………..would love it to happen though, to stick it up all the naysayers. 

Geelong

[DeeZone 10,482]

We have had two poor years out of the past 7,  2019 & 2024 and it’s no coincidence that injury played a huge role in both years. We had a mini team refresh in 2019, changed up our game plan and adopted a team first mentality during a torrid preseason. At the end of 2024 we have undergone another club refresh that has improved both our team and our depth, we have upgraded our coaching group and are working on a game plan that will be more suitable to our existing playing list, I believe that with a bit of luck we will bounce back quicker and further than any of the media pundits care to believe.